MILK IT BABY!!!! In terms of BO, this is the best thing to do.

Nov 2010

OW: 125m
Total: 330m

Basically is going to sell as many tickets as HP6 will do this November, though maybe a bit more.

May 2011

OW: 165m
Total: 375m

This is a sure-fire to break SM3 opening records (granted it opens on a Friday). Of course, it will be super frontloaded. The hype surronding this one is going to be INSANE.

I assume weekend before May, because that's the best spot for it.

All I'm 100% sure is that Part II will not make more than Part I. Sequels this close together never work, with the exception of LOTR. Think Matrix Revolutions or Pirates: At World's End.

This isn't a Reloaded/Revolutions or Dead Man's Chest/At World's End deal for two really big reasons:

1. Since this is based on a novel, we know that if the level of quality of the first part is on par with the last three Potter films (and what we can assume the quality of the sixth film will be), the fans will not be disappointed. In fact, if anything, they'll just be pumped to see how what they've already read on the page translates to the screen. Disappointment with the first "part" was a nice factor in At World's End performance and THE factor in that of Matrix Revolutions.

2. This is Harry Potter. Or, more specifically, this is the last of seven Harry Potter stories. And Harry Potter has been a box office monster since the first film hit screens in 2001. On the other hand, The Matrix Reloaded and Dead Man's Chest were both first sequels to films that came out of nowhere to make huge amounts of money and gained wider followings on home video. The demand to see the characters back for the first time was incredibly intense- so intense that there was never any way either movie could live up to expectations, thus resulting in a drop-off when the third installment was released.

On the other hand, the only reason why the Potter fans would be disappointed with part one of Deathly Hollows is because of extreme stylistic wanderings away from the novel, which probably won't happen with the story being split into two movies. Unlike the Matrix and Pirates sequels, everyone knows how the story ends and will be excited to see it unfold on screen over two volumes. If the novel hadn't been as greatly received as it was, there would be doubt over whether this approach would work, but we already know that if they stick close to the story (which looks to be the case), they will have the fans' seal of approval.

If anything is at all guaranteed at this point, I'd dare to say that it would be Part One coming in lower than Part Two. This isn't The Matrix or Pirates of the Caribbean. It's Harry Potter. It's proven its longevity already.

Part I
Opening: $100 million
Total: $285 million

Part II
Opening: $120 million
Total: $270 million

Part I
Opening: $100 million
Total: $285 million

Part II
Opening: $120 million
Total: $270 million