The Judd Apatow comedy, originally slated for the Knocked Up post-Memorial Day Weekend timeslot, got moved back to the middle of April, according to BOM.

Smart move, if you ask me. There's a ton of competition around this time, and unlike Knocked Up, this won't be able to stick out enough to become a hit. In April, it can do good numbers against less competition.

This is very expected. Walk Hard proved the Judd Appatow brandname doesn't mean anything, and Sex and the City was going to destroy it if it stayed on the Post-MDW frame.

To be fair, Walk Hard was a really hard sell. It was the kind of movie that was only going to appeal to movie geeks because of the movies it parodied and how it parodied them. It's probably the least parody-like parody in quite some time because it lampoons qualities of films and real musicians instead of taking all the popular movies of the last year and using them to make lame PG-13 sex references. That alone meant it wasn't going to play to the Epic Movie crowd. Also, even though it easily earned its R-rating, it wasn't nearly as raunchy as Superbad, and the ad campaign seemed to have tamer humor. Then, there's also the matter that it opened in such a crowded frame with so much competition for the 17-25 male demographic.

On the other hand, Forgetting Sarah Marshall is "kinda sorta" a chick flick (or at least one that will appeal to women), will probably be fairly raunchy, has far less competition, and is a straightforward comedy. It will have no problem making good money.

Whilst moving it away from Sex and the City was prudent since that movie will basically do at least $75m guaranteed, i think this has seriously hurt its chance to be another apatow $100m+ hit.

Im banking on a sub 100m gross for this.