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2007 is offically the biggest year ever
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Author:  MadGez [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Yep. Its looking good for $9.65 to $9.7B total. :thumbsup:

Alas my $10B club I did back in August didnt come true thanks to a dismal Sept/Oct and dissapointing November. But December sure has rallied big time.

What a year!!

Now how will 08 fair in comparison?

I think 08 will clearly win January, September, October, November.
It should be close but it has a good chance of winning April, May and June.
It will most likely lose February, March, July, August, December.

So 08 is still a chance to win more months (though I think it will be 6-6) but 07 will have won bigger months and hence bigger overall BO.
Author:  El Maskado [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
I still find it odd that the attendence vs 2004 didnt get beat since there are more 200 million and 300 million grossers released than it did in 04. Unless Passion of the Christ had so many discounted ticket prices which would have made more sense
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Yeah it is odd - but I think that comes down to the lower number of $50-$100m films in 2007 compared to any other year. 2007 was very top heavy and thats the trend now that people go to see the big films and leave the mid range films to dvd.

BTW - those attendance figures are just estimates. I seriously doubt average ticket price goes up that consistently every year.
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 9:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
I think Mad 2 will disapoint some what but will do 125-150, probably Bee Movie range. I don't think the first film was that well liked. Of course Potter and Bond will be so huge it won't matter. Those two will combine for at least 500 million.
Author:  billybobwashere [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
no animated sequel has gone wrong in the past...until that happens, Madagascar 2 can be marked up for at least $175 million. I consider it a likely bet for $200m at this point. If Casino Royale and Happy Feet could co-exist peacefully, so could this and Bond 22, except both on slightly bigger scales.
Author:  MARVEL_ROCKS [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
all thanks to A&C
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
billybobwashere wrote:
no animated sequel has gone wrong in the past...until that happens, Madagascar 2 can be marked up for at least $175 million. I consider it a likely bet for $200m at this point. If Casino Royale and Happy Feet could co-exist peacefully, so could this and Bond 22, except both on slightly bigger scales.

Well its more Potter killing its legs is what I am getting at. Happy Feet didn't have a 300 million dollar franchise in its third weekend. I think it might get to 150, but I don't see much beyond that.
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 10:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Magnus wrote:
Jedi Master Carr wrote:
Well its more Potter killing its legs is what I am getting at. Happy Feet didn't have a 300 million dollar franchise in its third weekend. I think it might get to 150, but I don't see much beyond that.


Well, Chicken Little made 135m in the same position Mad. 2 was in. Though it went againt Jarhead, not Bond 22. But Mad. 2 has a lot more going for it than CL. I think Mad. 2 could get a 50m OW and a 165m total, simliar legs to CL. I think Bond 22 can open to 60m and get to 200m. That November 7th weekend should easily have the biggest start to a November ever. The two openers will combine for 100m+ for sure.

Of course, I think Mad. 2 should still move to December (open at December 12th). It would have a lower OW, but much longer legs.

Speaking of moving, I haven't heard much on the project. Any chance with the strike they might push it to the Summer of 2009 to spread themselves out?
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Magnus wrote:
Jedi Master Carr wrote:
Speaking of moving, I haven't heard much on the project. Any chance with the strike they might push it to the Summer of 2009 to spread themselves out?


I think both have finished scripts so are fine. And by the time Bond 22 starts filming, the strike may even be over.

I doubt any big 2008 film will be affected by the strike anymore. A&D moved but that was even a close call as the script was almost complete.

Well I was thinking that Mad 2 would fill a void for a 2009 film that wouldn't get finished. Also who else thinks that WB will probably win the 2008 crown? They should have two of the top 3 grossing films of the year.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Mad 2 strikes me more of a $150-$160m film. Cant see it doing much more than that.

Bond and Potter should combine for $500m though.
Author:  MadGez [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Magnus wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Mad 2 strikes me more of a $150-$160m film. Cant see it doing much more than that.

Bond and Potter should combine for $500m though.


Currently, I see the following for the three:

Mad 2 - 165m
Bond 22 - 195m
HP6 - 315m

675m total for all three. Optimistic, but I think all films have good potential. Bond 22 really had great WOM, Mad 2 is a CGI-sequel which are always sure-fire huge hits, and HP6...is HP6. HP5 in 2008 dollars would make close to 310m, and I think this can make a bit more than that as the movies are now the only way for fans to experience HP, so I see it having more repeat viewings and better late-legs in December.


Yeah they are basically the numbers I see for those films too - give or take $5m.

If High School Musical does indeed come out in October (good plan considering school is on and it should be all the buzz in schools) - then 2008 should romp home that period (Oct-Nov) as other strong films will be released then like Body of Lies, Valkyrie, The Women, Igor, Saw IV etc
Author:  Excel [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
2008 is 2005 part deux. big weekend to weekend slump but saved by enormous holiday season.

The only weekend from May through July we have a good shot at winning is July 18th and TDK moves to a wednesday we be fucked.
Author:  O [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
I don't think 2008 has a good chance at keeping up with 2007 at this point. There are too many films I see massively disappointing that are being set up as tentpoles:

-Hellboy 2 (not necessary)
-Mummy 3 (people will already get their fix for this type of film from IJ4)
-The Hulk (way too soon, I don't care if it was "reimagined," audiences are going to reject this)
-Speed Racer (they should have done more of a Fast and the furious touch to it rather than pure cartoon, as family audiences will move on to Narnia in its 2nd week)
-The Love Guru (as much as I find this to be interesting, I'm not sure how much the hockey theme will resonate...)
Author:  Box [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
O wrote:
I don't think 2008 has a good chance at keeping up with 2007 at this point. There are too many films I see massively disappointing that are being set up as tentpoles:

-Hellboy 2 (not necessary)
-Mummy 3 (people will already get their fix for this type of film from IJ4)
-The Hulk (way too soon, I don't care if it was "reimagined," audiences are going to reject this)
-Speed Racer (they should have done more of a Fast and the furious touch to it rather than pure cartoon, as family audiences will move on to Narnia in its 2nd week)
-The Love Guru (as much as I find this to be interesting, I'm not sure how much the hockey theme will resonate...)



Nobody cares about those stupid films. There are dozens of others that are bound to exceed. The Dark Knight and Wall-E, hello?!
Author:  O [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
Box wrote:
O wrote:
I don't think 2008 has a good chance at keeping up with 2007 at this point. There are too many films I see massively disappointing that are being set up as tentpoles:

-Hellboy 2 (not necessary)
-Mummy 3 (people will already get their fix for this type of film from IJ4)
-The Hulk (way too soon, I don't care if it was "reimagined," audiences are going to reject this)
-Speed Racer (they should have done more of a Fast and the furious touch to it rather than pure cartoon, as family audiences will move on to Narnia in its 2nd week)
-The Love Guru (as much as I find this to be interesting, I'm not sure how much the hockey theme will resonate...)



Nobody cares about those stupid films. There are dozens of others that are bound to exceed. The Dark Knight and Wall-E, hello?!


2007 had 14 straight weekends during the summer where one of the openers opened to $30 m +. Out of 18 weekends, 16 had openers of $26 m or more. Thus, overall for summer 2007, there was constantly a film opening each weekend to solid business more or less ($30 m openers constantly). With some of the lackluster 2008 tentpoles, it will be hard for Dark Knight/Wall E to make up for their craptacularness!
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2007 is offically the biggest year ever
O wrote:
Box wrote:
O wrote:
I don't think 2008 has a good chance at keeping up with 2007 at this point. There are too many films I see massively disappointing that are being set up as tentpoles:

-Hellboy 2 (not necessary)
-Mummy 3 (people will already get their fix for this type of film from IJ4)
-The Hulk (way too soon, I don't care if it was "reimagined," audiences are going to reject this)
-Speed Racer (they should have done more of a Fast and the furious touch to it rather than pure cartoon, as family audiences will move on to Narnia in its 2nd week)
-The Love Guru (as much as I find this to be interesting, I'm not sure how much the hockey theme will resonate...)



Nobody cares about those stupid films. There are dozens of others that are bound to exceed. The Dark Knight and Wall-E, hello?!


2007 had 14 straight weekends during the summer where one of the openers opened to $30 m +. Out of 18 weekends, 16 had openers of $26 m or more. Thus, overall for summer 2007, there was constantly a film opening each weekend to solid business more or less ($30 m openers constantly). With some of the lackluster 2008 tentpoles, it will be hard for Dark Knight/Wall E to make up for their craptacularness!

Yes but you have Harry Potter 6, Bond, Mad 2, HSM 3, Hannah Montana. Really Jan-April should kill last year and Sept-Nov should as well, that is why 2008 will be bigger. Just the summer will be down.
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