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Saturday & Weekend Estimates
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Author:  mark66 [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Saturday & Weekend Estimates
From SBD:

1. EPIC MOVIE 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,801 7,701,000 2,749 n/a 14,362,000 +16 %
2. SMOKIN' ACES UNIVERSAL 2,204 5,461,000 2,478 n/a 10,416,000 +10 %
3. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,241 4,505,000 1,390 -25% 213,995,000 +106 %
4. STOMP THE YARD SONY 2,115 3,670,000 1,735 -40% 48,620,000 +75 %
5. CATCH AND RELEASE SONY 1,622 3,225,000 1,988 n/a 5,945,000 +19 %
6. DREAMGIRLS PARAMOUNT 2,785 3,165,000 1,136 -20% 84,946,000 +81 %
7. PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS, THE SONY 2,688 2,378,000 885 -24% 151,692,000 +75 %
8. PAN'S LABYRINTH PICTURE HOUSE 823 1,995,000 2,424 3% 14,997,813 +56 %
9. QUEEN, THE MIRAMAX 1,830 1,847,000 1,009 16% 40,220,000 +77 %
10. FREEDOM WRITERS PARAMOUNT 2,273 1,620,000 713 -34% 30,410,000 +58 %

From EDI:
$19.20m EPIC MOVIE
$14.26m SMOKIN'
$9.45m MUSEUM
$8.00m CATCH
$7.80m STOMP
$6.62m DREAMGIRLS
$5.00m PURSUIT
$4.50m PAN
$4.00m QUEEN
$3.60m HITCHER

http://www.nielsenedi.com/charts/index.html
Author:  zingy [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 12:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
Doesn't look like it's going to be massively frontloaded. Great for Epic Movie.

Nice for Smokin' Aces, too.
Author:  MovieDude [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 1:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
I hope The Departed still got at least 2.5 million. WB really should've had at least a little bit of marketing for the re-release.

Sad but not that surprising for Epic Movie. I didn't think it'd have that bad of a weekend multiplier (Date Movie had a 2.76) but this could still have crappy legs. Also very decent for Smokin' Aces and Catch and Release.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 1:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
$19.20m EPIC MOVIE


Now that's just disgusting.

And Night at the Museum continues its increasingly mindblowing run. :wacko:

Nice increase for The Queen, and good holds for Dreamgirls, Happyness and Pan's. Could Happyness actually pass Casino Royale at this point?
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
BOM
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nice increase for Departed. Should get well past $130M before it comes out on DVD. Nice to see Notes on a Scandal expanded successfully, Volver notsomuch. And the fact that Letters form Iwo Jima couldn't increase much more than Babel despite being a pretty shocking nomination isn't good for its Oscar chances. If you can't appeal to the public, you just can't appeal to AMPAS.

And CoM having another 40%+ drop after losing only 248 theaters is so, so heartbreaking. :cry:
Author:  DIB2 [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
I cant believe Epic movie, its probably going to get a better PTA then Date Movie (date movie openend over a holiday weekend), and its wom seems to be better.

I think its muliplier will still suck, Norbit will Manhandle Epic (it'll thrash Epic like a stuffed bear in a Dogs Mouth).

2.5-2.7 multiplier
Author:  zingy [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
Never underestimate Fox marketing. It can take crappy looking films like Epic Movie and make 'em hits. Looks like it should make around $48-50m.

Glad Smokin' Aces did well. Hopefully it'll make $40m. I think it has good WOM.
Author:  getluv [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
CATCH AND RELEASE didn't quite reciprocate THE WEDDING DATE, but I don't expect it to drop so heavily over the next few weeks like TWD did.
Author:  DIB2 [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 3:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Departed did ok, but I expected much more.

if you only include films from this decade Aces has the best PTA for a film of its Kind, whomping the second placer (The Whole Nine Yards).

Night at the museum is Definetly passing Cars (its about 4m behind cars), they have around the same PTA for weekend 6, but from there Cars gets mangled by theater loss. and cars is droping off in Dailies rapidly, with no comp till Feburary 16th night will pounce soon.
Author:  Michael. [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 3:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
slightly above expectations based on fridays number for Catch and Release
the good multiplier is a positive sign considering it should have in theory been best on its friday.

Considering its low budget and theater count $8m isn't actually the worst figure ever.
Author:  Jeff [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 3:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Squishy wrote:
slightly above expectations based on fridays number for Catch and Release
the good multiplier is a positive sign considering it should have in theory been best on its friday.

Considering its low budget and theater count $8m isn't actually the worst figure ever.


Considering many people were saying $5 million for it, I'd say $8 million is pretty solid (considering also the low theater count and minimal promotion)...
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 4:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
All the openers did pretty well I thought. Fuckin eh Epic Movie. Departed did very good, that means it had higher than a 4 multiplier based on Friday's number.

Sad for Serephim Falls, it was a very good movie. there were two people in the theater when I saw it.
Author:  Libs [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 6:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
I just find Epic Movie making that much money to be rather obscene, but I guess I can't judge since I haven't seen it. Smokin' Aces did very well too, but its shelf life could be fairly short with the Super Bowl stealing its audience next weekend.

$8M is a solid number for Catch and Release (which was better than I was expecting it to be), considering the January release date and low theater count.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 7:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Decent weekend. Only down about 10-12% on last year - not bad with the miserable new releases we have had this month and a week after only one film opened.
Author:  Michael. [ Sun Jan 28, 2007 9:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Katie wrote:
Squishy wrote:
slightly above expectations based on fridays number for Catch and Release
the good multiplier is a positive sign considering it should have in theory been best on its friday.

Considering its low budget and theater count $8m isn't actually the worst figure ever.


Considering many people were saying $5 million for it, I'd say $8 million is pretty solid (considering also the low theater count and minimal promotion)...


in addition the following stats are for its first weekend audience

75% female
58% over the age of 25.

Now the first stat does not work in its favour because it suggests that its so specialised for women that it will have a difficult time expanding with men like most romcoms do. Films which heavily skew female usually drop quickly as its potential audience dries up. But the second stat is a good thing, because this means that legs are more likely due to the tendancy of this age group to hold back on seeing a film until they've heard some wom. So far the WOM of Catch isn't actually too bad, most seem to be grading it as ok/pretty good, this doesn't guarantee it doing well over the next few weeks, but it does give it more of a chance than a 58% under 25 audience might.

It's too early to tell how well it will hold next weekend with Because I Said So opening, and Music & Lyrics the weekend after, and with its unfortunate disadvantage of a female skewing start. But i've said time and again that marketing a film with its female lead as its sole selling point and with no well known male vantage point to appeal to men is a mistake because it alienates everyone BUT women, and indeed much of the performance from then on out is up to the appeal of the star and the project as a whole.

Still, for a film with such an unclear message and basis as this, $8m is actually pretty decent, and is above every major box office websites prediction. Hopefully It's actually a good movie. I'll see soon enough
Author:  ashwani [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:58 am ]
Post subject: 
Is it just me or FOX movies are doing well so far.

I mean NATM is still doing great business and is doing very well overseas.

Rocky Balboa is doing much better overseas than it did in north america. (FOX owns overseas distribution rights)

Eragon did some decent business overseas.

Epic movie opens around 18 million and will probably end up with 40-45 million north america and overseas too it opened well in some countries meaning 55-60 million overseas.


So far fox is doing well.

next up is RENO 911
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 2:36 am ]
Post subject: 
Squishy wrote:
Katie wrote:
Squishy wrote:
slightly above expectations based on fridays number for Catch and Release
the good multiplier is a positive sign considering it should have in theory been best on its friday.

Considering its low budget and theater count $8m isn't actually the worst figure ever.


Considering many people were saying $5 million for it, I'd say $8 million is pretty solid (considering also the low theater count and minimal promotion)...


in addition the following stats are for its first weekend audience

75% female
58% over the age of 25.

Now the first stat does not work in its favour because it suggests that its so specialised for women that it will have a difficult time expanding with men like most romcoms do. Films which heavily skew female usually drop quickly as its potential audience dries up.


I don't think that's quite true. The Devil Wears Prada (among other leggy movies) had a higher percentage of women.
Author:  Michael. [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 9:29 am ]
Post subject: 
The Devil Wears Prada was also an exceptional movie with a very smart marketing campaign and word of mouth so strong it quickly caught onto a male following. Meryl Streep has appeal across the board. Jennifer Garner's audience here is surprising, definitely a very different crowd from the 13 going on 30 audience, but she still has nowhere near as much clout as streep.
Author:  xiayun [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 2:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
From SBD:

Sunday
1. SMOKIN' ACES UNIVERSAL 2,218 4,030,000 1,817 n/a 14,505,000
2. EPIC MOVIE 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,801 4,015,000 1,433 n/a 18,240,000
3. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,241 2,700,000 833 -4% 216,773,000
4. STOMP THE YARD SONY 2,114 1,905,000 901 -26% 50,491,000
5. DREAMGIRLS PARAMOUNT 2,785 1,815,000 652 4% 86,711,000
6. CATCH AND RELEASE SONY 1,622 1,700,000 1,048 n/a 7,555,000
7. PAN'S LABYRINTH PICTURE HOUSE 823 1,435,000 1,744 24% 16,477,813
8. PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS, THE SONY 2,688 1,285,000 478 0% 152,883,000
9. QUEEN, THE MIRAMAX 1,830 1,170,000 639 44% 41,377,000
10. HITCHER, THE FOCUS FEATURES 2,836 915,000 323 -43% 13,410,000
11. FREEDOM WRITERS PARAMOUNT 2,273 885,000 389 -19% 31,317,000
12. NOTES ON A SCANDAL FOX SEARCHLIGHT 642 755,000 1,176 160% 9,010,397
13. BABEL PARAMOUNT 1,090 740,000 679 57% 27,201,000
14. LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA WARNER BROS. 415 610,000 1,470 97% 5,094,219
15. LAST KING OF SCOTLAND, THE FOX SEARCHLIGHT 501 495,000 988 46% 7,722,000
16. BLOOD AND CHOCOLATE MGM 1,200 460,000 383 n/a 1,945,000
17. BLOOD DIAMOND WARNER BROS. 690 345,000 500 -12% 52,689,000
18. HAPPY FEET WARNER BROS. 650 340,000 523 -22% 192,000,000
19. WE ARE MARSHALL WARNER BROS. 940 165,000 176 -21% 42,263,000
20. GOOD GERMAN, THE WARNER BROS. 48 11,153 232 -52% 978,781

Updated Weekend Estimates
1. EPIC MOVIE 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,801 18,240,000 6,511 18,240,000
2. SMOKIN' ACES UNIVERSAL 2,218 14,505,000 6,539 14,505,000
3. NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,241 9,475,000 2,923 216,773,000
4. STOMP THE YARD SONY 2,114 7,640,000 3,614 50,491,000
5. CATCH AND RELEASE SONY 1,622 7,555,000 4,657 7,555,000
6. DREAMGIRLS PARAMOUNT 2,785 6,680,000 2,398 86,711,000
7. PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS, THE SONY 2,688 4,930,000 1,834 152,883,000
8. PAN'S LABYRINTH PICTURE HOUSE 823 4,750,000 5,771 16,477,813
9. QUEEN, THE MIRAMAX 1,830 4,045,000 2,210 41,377,000
10. HITCHER, THE FOCUS FEATURES 2,836 3,625,000 1,278 13,410,000
11. FREEDOM WRITERS PARAMOUNT 2,273 3,505,000 1,542 31,317,000
12. NOTES ON A SCANDAL FOX SEARCHLIGHT 642 2,565,000 3,995 9,010,397
13. BABEL PARAMOUNT 1,090 2,540,000 2,330 27,201,000
14. BLOOD AND CHOCOLATE MGM 1,200 1,945,000 1,620 1,945,000
15. LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA WARNER BROS. 415 1,865,000 4,493 5,094,219
16. LAST KING OF SCOTLAND, THE FOX SEARCHLIGHT 501 1,670,000 3,333 7,722,000
17. BLOOD DIAMOND WARNER BROS. 690 1,235,000 1,789 52,689,000
18. HAPPY FEET WARNER BROS. 650 915,000 1,407 192,000,000
19. WE ARE MARSHALL WARNER BROS. 940 795,000 845 42,263,000
20. GOOD GERMAN, THE WARNER BROS. 48 38,964 811 978,781

It missed The Departed.
Author:  Jonathan [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Epic Movie was overestimated by $1 million. :D

Pan's Labyrinth was actually underestimated. V. good.
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 2:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Awards Czar Jon wrote:
Epic Movie was overestimated by $1 million. :D

The damage is already done though and we probably will get another sequel from Fox. It exceeded most of the predictions by 4-5 million
Author:  xiayun [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
Actuals:

1 N Epic Movie Fox $18,612,544 - 2,801 - $6,644 $18,612,544 - 1
2 N Smokin' Aces Uni. $14,638,755 - 2,218 - $6,599 $14,638,755 $17 1
3 2 Night at the Museum Fox $9,557,664 -20.4% 3,241 -242 $2,948 $216,845,623 - 6
4 1 Stomp the Yard SGem $7,685,565 -37.5% 2,115 +64 $3,633 $50,538,842 $14 3
5 N Catch and Release Sony $7,658,898 - 1,622 - $4,721 $7,658,898 $25 1
6 3 Dreamgirls P/DW $6,741,985 -15.8% 2,785 +571 $2,420 $86,775,468 - 7
7 5 The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $4,983,325 -21.0% 2,688 -378 $1,853 $152,929,867 $55 7
8 7 Pan's Labyrinth PicH $4,774,578 +6.0% 823 +214 $5,801 $16,523,021 $19 5
9 9 The Queen Mira. $4,013,052 +18.0% 1,830 +244 $2,192 $41,254,080 - 18
10 4 The Hitcher (2007) Rog. $3,632,975 -53.5% 2,836 +5 $1,281 $13,433,020 - 2
11 6 Freedom Writers Par. $3,514,548 -32.5% 2,273 -13 $1,546 $31,312,123 $21 4
12 35 The Departed WB $3,365,481 +1,014.6% 1,453 +1,326 $2,316 $125,237,852 $90 17
13 25 Notes on a Scandal FoxS $2,603,703 +123.0% 641 +441 $4,061 $9,087,135 - 5
14 13 Babel ParV $2,561,053 +23.6% 1,090 +201 $2,349 $27,226,241 - 14
15 8 Children of Men Uni. $2,183,195 -41.2% 1,273 -251 $1,715 $30,909,838 $76 5
16 N Blood and Chocolate MGM $2,074,300 - 1,200 - $1,728 $2,074,300 - 1
17 21 Letters from Iwo Jima WB $1,867,326 +37.8% 415 +55 $4,499 $5,072,065 $19 6
18 10 Arthur and the Invisibles MGM/W $1,704,515 -44.7% 1,718 -530 $992 $11,501,180 $86 5
19 17 The Last King of Scotland FoxS $1,674,900 +4.0% 501 +6 $3,343 $7,739,235 $6 18
20 12 Charlotte's Web (2006) Par. $1,496,105 -35.9% 1,345 -570 $1,112 $78,862,500 $85 7
21 16 Blood Diamond WB $1,222,485 -29.9% 690 -265 $1,771 $52,640,838 $100 8
22 11 Alpha Dog Uni. $1,165,725 -61.0% 1,005 -287 $1,159 $14,045,245 - 3
23 30 Volver SPC $1,140,304 +112.8% 689 +542 $1,655 $8,889,349 - 13
24 22 Happy Feet WB $920,214 -29.7% 650 -354 $1,415 $191,927,188 $100 11
25 20 We Are Marshall WB $786,362 -46.6% 940 -500 $836 $42,224,971 - 6
26 14 The Good Shepherd Uni. $725,610 -64.6% 722 -849 $1,005 $58,964,680 - 6
27 26 The Painted Veil WIP $695,073 -23.1% 287 +35 $2,421 $4,864,513 - 6
28 23 Casino Royale Sony $609,192 -48.9% 364 -297 $1,673 $165,320,608 $150 11
29 18 Rocky Balboa MGM $556,051 -64.8% 811 -639 $685 $68,701,522 $24 6
30 24 Eragon Fox $555,331 -52.8% 553 -522 $1,004 $73,198,144 $100 7
31 19 Happily N'Ever After LGF $549,141 -64.9% 660 -1,098 $832 $14,798,151 - 4
32 42 Venus Mira. $343,941 +240.8% 59 +47 $5,829 $715,173 - 6
33 34 Flushed Away P/DW $309,357 -1.1% 300 -15 $1,031 $63,419,887 $149 13
34 32 Apocalypto BV $228,685 -55.8% 175 -174 $1,306 $50,222,634 $40 8
35 33 Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan Fox $224,800 -29.8% 240 -26 $936 $127,827,221 $18 13
36 38 Little Children NL $207,349 +12.2% 88 -4 $2,356 $4,065,149 $26 17
37 15 Primeval BV $204,322 -89.1% 401 -2,043 $509 $10,393,442 - 3
- 31 Guru AdL. $195,000 -62.7% 69 -7 $2,826 $1,824,000 - 0
38 36 Deja Vu BV $181,511 -30.3% 274 -74 $662 $63,651,455 $75 10
39 28 The Holiday Sony $176,914 -74.1% 243 -476 $728 $63,224,849 $85 8
40 N Seraphim Falls IDP $155,560 - 52 - $2,991 $155,560 - 1
41 40 Deep Sea 3-D (IMAX) WB $149,808 +11.9% 36 +2 $4,161 $22,749,120 - 48
42 29 Code Name: The Cleaner NL $147,817 -73.3% 263 -412 $562 $8,104,069 $20 4
43 27 Curse of the Golden Flower SPC $135,548 -83.5% 91 -1,058 $1,489 $6,243,989 - 6
44 37 Perfume - The Story of a Murderer P/DW $125,448 -33.4% 60 -9 $2,090 $1,860,928 $60 5
45 39 Miss Potter MGM/W $102,743 -38.3% 33 -5 $3,113 $751,315 - 5

Blood and Chocolate still looks like an estimate (EDIT: I guess the digits just fit).
Author:  Libs [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 6:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Little Children is up 12% despite losing 4 theaters. Yay.

And Primeval is down an insane 89% from last week.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
12. The Departed - $3,365,481 +1,014.6% 1,453 +1,326 $2,316 $125,237,852


Wow, The Departed had a nice boost. It was estimated at $3,045,000; actual is over $300,000 higher.

Peace,
Mike.
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