Films to be released this January:

5:

Code Name: The Cleaner (Cedric the Entertainer, Lucy Liu)
Freedom Writers (Hilary Swank inspirational drama)
Happily N'Ever After (Lionsgate CGI)

12:

Alpha Dog (Universal drama starring Bruce Willis, Emile Hirsch, and Sharon Stone)
Arthur and the Invisibles (Weinstein CGI)
Miss Potter (Renee Zellweger dramedy)
Primeval (Touchstone horror)
Stomp the Yard (Sony urban dance drama)

19:

The Hitcher (Horror remake produced by Michael Bay)
Fast Track (Zach Braff drama)

26:

Catch and Release (Jennifer Garner drama)
Blood and Chocolate (Agnes Bruckner werewolf action/romance)
Breaking and Entering (Jude Law drama)
Epic Movie (Fox spoof comedy)
Seraphim Falls (Pierce Brosnan drama)
Smokin' Aces (Action-comedy w/large cast of "names")

What will be the biggest hit? The biggest dud? Any surprises?

Bombs:

Code Name: The Cleaner
Arthur and the Invisibles
Fast Track
Blood and Chocolate
Seraphim Falls
Catch and Release
Breaking and Entering

Decent Performers:

Alpha Dog
Epic Movie
Smokin' Aces
Happily N'Ever After
The Invisible

Hits:

Stomp the Yard
Freedom Writers
The Hitcher

Code Name: The Cleaner looks like it could be the worst movie ever made, heh.

This month seems awfully weak to be honest, it's hard to believe last year started with one close to 20 mil hit in Hostel, and two 25 mil+ hits in U:E and Big Momma's House 2... January is going to suck this year compared to that.

5:

Code Name: The Cleaner - 3/6.5
Freedom Writers - 7/23
Happily N'Ever After - 10/33

12:

Alpha Dog - 8/25
Arthur and the Invisibles - 4/13
Miss Potter - Probably limited, but I'll say 30 mil total.
Stomp the Yard - 19/60

19:

The Hitcher - 23/64
Fast Track - 6/18

26:

Catch and Release - 9/26
Blood and Chocolate - 3/7
Breaking and Entering - 11 mil total
Epic Movie - 11/27
Seraphim Falls - 8.5/27
Smokin' Aces - 19/58
The Invisible - 10/29

Yeah seriously, brutal brutal month. Stomp the Yard, The Hitcher, and Smoking Aces should do well, while the rest is terrible. I wonder if The Hitcher can actually get higher than that, for this type of film it would seem unlikely, but it just looks so good and there's no competition...

January 5
Code Name: The Cleaner - 4/9
Freedom Writers - 8/21
Happily N'Ever After - 12/40

January 12
Alpha Dog - 9/22
Arthur and the Invisibles - ?
Stomp the Yard - 17/51

January 19
The Hitcher - 21/50
Fast Track - 8/20

January 26
Catch and Release - 10/28
Blood and Chocolate - 3/6
Epic Movie - 12/31
Smokin' Aces - 11/29
The Invisible - 17/51

Dreadful compared to '06.

You think The Invisible will be the biggest movie of the month?

It looks like a glorified indie, no names at all in that film.

I just have a feeling Freedom Writers will be a hit... It's another inspirational teacher movie coming out around MLK Jr. Day like Coach Carter and the many others that came before it. MTV can release one every year and roll in the money.

I do agree though that it is setting up to be a brutal month. There isn't a movie aside from The Hitcher that I'm really anticipating. Alpha Dog also looks decent but I'm wary because it has been delayed numerous times, even changing distributors. The Invisible also looks interesting.

Reminds me of The Butterfly Effect. Same weekend, same type of film, and the trailer is solid.

Sans Ashton Kutcher though, a big factor of TBE's success.

Has anyone noticed that Robert Adetuyi is the credited screenwriter for both Code Name: The Cleaner and Stomp the Yard. What a dubious duo

January 5
Code Name: The Cleaner - 7.2/17.6
Freedom Writers - 4/15
Happily N'Ever After - 9/40

January 12
Alpha Dog - 7.3/20
Stomp the Yard - 9.0/27.6

Expanding (Wide)
Arthur and the Invisibles - 3.2/10
Miss Potter - 7.1/40

January 19
The Hitcher - 24/60

Expanding (Wide)
Fast Track - 7.0/21.3
Last King of Scotland - 5.7/20
The Departed (Academy Run) - 6.7/63.9
The Qween Academy Run - 1.9/10

January 26
Catch and Release - 16.1/48
Blood and Chocolate - 8.9/27
Epic Movie - 13.1/32.7
Smokin' Aces - 6.2/13.0
The Invisible - 15.2/40.9

With The Departed hitting DVD on February 13, a $60 million awards run is out of the question.

Doesn't The Abandoned (one of the films from After Dark's Horror Fest) get a wide release separate from the other seven films on the 12th?

It's still listed as a limited release on most sites but I'm not sure of its status as a wide release. Having seen it, I think it's a waste to release it wide because it wasn't very good at all.

Isn't Children Of Men expanding on the 5th?

That too is up in the air as Universal decides how to best market it.

Universal marketing it?

January 5
Code Name: The Cleaner - 4/9
Freedom Writers - ?
Happily N'Ever After - 11/38

January 12
Alpha Dog - 12/34
Arthur and the Invisibles - 8/25
Stomp the Yard - 13/35

January 19
The Hitcher - 19/48
Fast Track - ?

January 26
Catch and Release - ?
Blood and Chocolate - 4/9
Epic Movie - 15/38
Smokin' Aces - 9/26
The Invisible - 16/47

Weak month.

January 5
Code Name: The Cleaner - $8m
Freedom Writers - $46m
Happily N'Ever After - $40m

January 12
Alpha Dog - $37m
Arthur and the Invisibles - $22m
Stomp the Yard - $55m

January 19
The Hitcher - $53m
Fast Track -

January 26
Catch and Release - $31m
Blood and Chocolate - $7m
Epic Movie - $27m
Smokin' Aces - $60m
The Invisible - $25m

Will get 07 off to a slow start but 07 should take over in Feb/Mar.

Before we go and say how weak the month will be, I'd like to remind people that Chicago brpoke out in January/February of it's respective year on it's was over 160 miilion... the same could happen for Dreamgirls. If some of the other wards films can stay strong, we can still post good numbers even without huge openers...

Why don't one or two of the releases on the 26th move to the 19th?

The month looks unpleasant for quality.

Not that this should be a shock, considering how much of a dumping ground January has often been in the past.

Pretty bad for january. We wont see a 25 million opener till Ghost Rider is released. February looks at least a little brighter with Reno 911,Zodiac, Hills have Eyes 2 and Ghost Rider

Yeah, it looks pathetically awful qualitywise. Guess we'll have to look to expanding Oscar contenders for quality.

Freedom Writers is now going to be using a different release strategy: 750 locations on the 5th, expanding to over 1500 the next week.

Ugh. This looks like another year that the Jan. record WONT be broken.

The oldest monthly records, in order are:

1 JANUARY SW Ep. 4 $35,906,661 (Will likely not be broken this year, so will hold for at least 11 years, until 2008 at the earliest) Thus 10 years so far.

2 AUGUST RH 2 $67,408,222 - With Rush Hour 3, and Bourne 3, this record will go down in 2007, after holding for 6 years.

3 MAY Spider-Man $114,844,116 - This record is likely to go down this year, from either Shrek 3, POTC 3, or Spidy 3. Likely all 3 could potentially break this. But the record will have been held for 5 years.

4 SEPTEMBER Sweet Home Alabama $35,648,740 This has held for 5 years, but Jodie Foster returns in The Brave One, starring with Terrence Howard. Foster can anchor a film, and Howard will help push this film's opening. While its definitely not a slam dunk, if the reviews are there, and marketing is exceptional, they could top SHA. But this could otherwise hold for a 6th year.

The other records are from 2003 or later, so still fairly new. After 2007, Jan and Sep will likely be the only records left from before 2003. It's amazing that by next year, SW will adjust to a $53 m January opening.