Rocky underestimated by $120,000 after all!!!
Night at the Museum is nuts. I wonder if it'll beat The Da Vinci Code. This month looks awful, especially for kids, so this could be hanging around for quite a bit.
| World of KJ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| 4Day Weekend Estimates http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=26324 |
Page 1 of 2 |
| Author: | mark66 [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 2:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 4Day Weekend Estimates |
From EDI http://www.nielsenedi.com/charts/index.html $46.70m MUSEUM $24.70m PURSUIT $18.67m DREAMGIRLS $15.05m CHARLOTTE $14.26m SHEPHERD $13.66m ROCKY $10.50m ERAGON $10.22m MARSHALL $9.71m HAPPY FEET $8.50m HOLIDAY |
|
| Author: | Jedi Master Carr [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 2:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Night of the Museum is doing great. |
|
| Author: | Timayd [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 3:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Nice to see a real hit for December I would have never have thought so much for Night at the Museum |
|
| Author: | ashwani [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 3:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Now if only we had one more movie that could do something similar to NATM. Unfortunately we didn't get any. But POH is damn good and CW is strong, ERAGON is ok it will do $200+ million worldwide. |
|
| Author: | Jeff [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 5:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
BOM numbers are up: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... 52a&p=.htm |
|
| Author: | Libs [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 5:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Museum and Pursuit bring us up to 18 $100M movies. If Dreamgirls can also hit the mark, we should tie last year (19) for $100M movies. |
|
| Author: | MadGez [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 5:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Thats still a far cry from the 2003 peak of 29 films crossing $100m and apart from 05 was the lowest since 98. I think we may have more films falling short in the $80-$95 region. |
|
| Author: | Jeff [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 6:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Libs wrote: Museum and Pursuit bring us up to 18 $100M movies. If Dreamgirls can also hit the mark, we should tie last year (19) for $100M movies. I think Dreamgirls has a pretty good chance at this point, so long as it doesn't completely fall apart next weekend. |
|
| Author: | Bryan_smith [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 6:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
MadGez wrote: Thats still a far cry from the 2003 peak of 29 films crossing $100m and apart from 05 was the lowest since 98. I think we may have more films falling short in the $80-$95 region. I am not sure that I agree. I think that this year has far more contenders for the 100 million mark, based on just the strength of releases of summer alone... These are the films I would say have a fighting chance at 100 million; Norbit Music and Lyrics By (cute and released on Valentine's Day) Ghost Rider (even a Daredevil performance would get it there) Bridge to Teribithia (though it's only a slim chance) The Number 23 300 Reign over me Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Meet the Robinsons Blades of Glory Spiderman 3 Shrek the Third POTC: At World's End Surf's Up Ocean's Thirteen Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer Even Almighty Live Free or Die Hard Ratatouille Transformers Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix I now pronounce you Chuck and Larry The Simpsons Movie The Born Ultimatum Rush Hour 3 Seven Day Itch (Ben Stiller and Farrley Bros.) Bee Movie Fred Clause Beowulf The Golden Compass I Am Legend National Treasure 2 Charlie Wilson's War That's quite a list! Now granted, they aren't all going to make it... but there will also be a few we didn't mention that will. |
|
| Author: | O [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 8:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Libs wrote: Museum and Pursuit bring us up to 18 $100M movies. If Dreamgirls can also hit the mark, we should tie last year (19) for $100M movies. CW amazingly went up by alot more than what some similar films did in past years, and if it followed Emperor's New Groove's legs, it would end up w/ $98.3 m. If it followed Stuart Little's legs, it would get to $98.6 m. So alot depends on how well it holds, but only 2005's Cheaper By The Dozen' II's 55.6% increase, and NT's 2004 70.7% increase were more from 2002 on for the top 10 for the weekend closest to New Year's. CW really, really rebounded, and has a slim, but still possible, chance at $100 m as well. Museum imo is now one of the top stories of the year. If it followed Fockers, it would get to $216 m, but with Imax, and the fact that its a family film, and not a sequel, I think its legs will be better. Museum should get Fox a $100 m start to 2007. Happy Feet had a very, very strong increase for the weekend. It still has a slight, slight chance at $200 m. But it will probably come very close to Ice Age 2 levels, and fall short by just a tad. But if WB pushes it to the level that they did Superman, it'll get there. |
|
| Author: | Shack [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 8:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Wow, look at Black Christmas... killed. |
|
| Author: | Michael. [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 8:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
The Holiday's run has actually been really quite good so far with its small opening considered. Hopefully it can continue doing well through January. Much bigger hit overseas though. In 3 weeks Charlottes Web has had a 5x multiplier. |
|
| Author: | O [ Mon Jan 01, 2007 8:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
To me, honestly, $100 m doesn't mean all that much in terms of what it says for a yearly total. Tickets are up so much now that low admissions by yesterday's standards can push a film to $100 m. Older disappointments adjust alot higher, and wouldn't be nearly as bad with today's ticket prices. Hunchback of Notre Dame $153.6 m (This would outdo Chicken Little by today's standards, but doesn't necessarily feel like it..) The Haunting $122 m Remember this lame 1999 horror movie with Zeta-Jones, it definitely doesnt feel worth $120 m +... Waterworld - Now would adjust to $137.5 m. Granted, budget costs would go up to by today's standards, but the number of people who saw a disappointment like Waterworld, also saw more seemingly successful films now that got the same amount of admissions. Big Momma's House 1 - Anyone else feel like this was a $147.9 m movie by today's standards? Not me. Wild Wild West - A $152 m movie by today's prices... Flubber - Would adjust to $137 m now! The Cable Guy - $92.4 m now. Not that far away from some of Carrey's latest films like Dick and Jane and Lemony Snicket. But by yesterday's standards a massive disappointment. Not so much anymore... Batman And Robin $158.5 m by today's standards. This was only 27% behind Batman Begins admissions wise. Batman and Robin was also a massive disappointment at the time following the other Batman films, enough to stop the franchise for nearly 8 years. But with high ticket prices, a $150 m total by a tentpole picture today wouldn't be enough to stop a franchise for nearly that long...also, only 23% behind Superman... Godzilla - Would adjust to $197.1 m now! Just 21.6% behind this year's #2 film, Cars. Dinosaur - Disappointment at the time, but $173.3 m now. So while $100 m is all great and all, some really undeserving films by yesterday's standards are squeezing by. |
|
| Author: | android [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Great numbers for the 3 "big" openers! |
|
| Author: | baumer72 [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 12:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
I just checked the drops for all film in the 2001 frame for the first weekend in January. They were all pretty small, most around 20-30% range, with some kids movies dropping almost 40%. So I'm wondering if this year will be about the same. If I had to guess, it would probably be like this: NATM- 36% drop POH- 27% Dreamgilrs- 25% Charlotte's Web- 38% The Good Shepherd- 29% Rocky Balboa- 30% and so on. The drops are quite small in the weekends to come. This bodes well for films like Good Shepherd and Rocky to make some decent money over the holidays. And even if NATM drops 35-40%, it should be on it's way to 200 mill. Here is the list of films and their drops. # Title Jan. 5 - 7 Dec. 29 - 31 % Chg. Theaters Weeks AVG Cumulative Dist. 1 Cast Away $ 22,220,725 $ 30,977,869 -28.3 2,948 3 $ 7,538 $ 141,702,072 Fox 2 What Women Want 15,555,033 20,834,205 -25.3 3,052 4 5,097 137,897,386 Paramount 3 Traffic 15,517,549 1,510 2 10,277 16,041,218 USA Films 4 Miss Congeniality 13,021,316 14,579,113 -10.7 2,668 3 4,881 65,376,566 Warner Bros. 5 The Family Man 9,121,855 12,771,990 -28.6 2,410 3 3,785 56,252,235 Universal 6 The Emperor's New Groove 7,462,207 11,319,523 -34.1 2,774 4 2,690 62,400,374 Buena Vista 7 Vertical Limit 5,010,353 6,120,758 -18.1 2,602 5 1,926 59,275,373 Sony 8 Dracula 2000 4,310,742 5,354,847 -19.5 2,204 3 1,956 28,136,273 Miramax 9 Dude, Where's My Car? 3,832,533 4,351,766 -11.9 2,004 4 1,912 41,385,958 Fox 10 Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 3,408,397 3,240,647 5.2 172 5 19,816 18,496,108 Sony Classics 11 How The Grinch Stole Christmas 2,503,210 7,286,100 -65.6 2,594 8 965 257,830,325 Universal 12 All the Pretty Horses 2,477,053 3,464,058 -28.5 1,593 2 1,555 12,815,784 Miramax 13 Finding Forrester 2,212,810 2,176,226 1.7 200 3 11,064 8,565,522 Sony 14 102 Dalmatians 1,630,491 2,693,610 -39.5 1,474 6 1,106 61,175,547 Buena Vista 15 Chocolat 1,538,146 1,379,245 11.5 260 4 5,916 6,441,900 Miramax 16 O Brother, Where Art Thou? 1,392,926 1,161,626 19.9 165 3 8,442 3,805,138 Buena Vista 17 Unbreakable 1,303,536 1,578,464 -17.4 1,106 6 1,179 92,009,544 Buena Vista 18 Proof of Life 1,265,614 2,412,860 -47.5 1,381 4 916 31,193,043 Warner Bros. 19 Rugrats in Paris 1,059,301 2,183,023 -51.5 1,308 7 810 73,068,712 Paramount 20 Quills 615,595 613,295 0.4 223 7 2,761 4,284,664 Fox Searchlight Top 5 $ 75,436,478 $ 90,482,700 -16.6 Top 10 99,460,710 117,060,229 -15.0 Top 20 115,459,392 135,099,520 -14.5 Top 20 vs. 2000 115,459,392 94,329,432 22.4 |
|
| Author: | almost famous [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 7:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Weekend actuals from EDI Night at the Museum 48,23 The Pursuit of Happyness 25,46 Dreamgirls 18,38 Charlotte's Web 14,94 The Good Shepherd 14,24 Rocky Balboa 13,78 Eragon 10,84 We Are Marshall 10,43 Happy Feet 10,01 The Holiday 8,84 Very good for Museum and Pursuit. |
|
| Author: | zingy [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 7:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Rocky underestimated by $120,000 after all!!!
Night at the Museum is nuts. I wonder if it'll beat The Da Vinci Code. This month looks awful, especially for kids, so this could be hanging around for quite a bit. |
|
| Author: | Jedi Master Carr [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 7:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Night of the Museum is just amazing, I think it will beat Da Vinci now. I think it won't pass Cars though. |
|
| Author: | Jeff [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Little Children had a $5,000 pta in its 42 theaters over the 4-day weekend...not bad. |
|
| Author: | xiayun [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 8:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Actuals. |
|
| Author: | Spidey [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 9:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Fantastic for Night at the Museum. |
|
| Author: | zingy [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 9:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
BTW, for the record, Rocky Balboa did drop over 40% on Sunday. |
|
| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 11:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Zingaling wrote: BTW, for the record, Rocky Balboa did drop over 40% on Sunday. Yes it did, still doesnt explain why. Anywho, amazing increase for Happy Feet, doesnt look like it will hit 200 million, but Casino Royale looks like it can push to 160 million. congrats and said in another thread, Rocky Balboa is the first Sylvester Stallone film to pass 50 million in the United States in 12 years. |
|
| Author: | DIB2 [ Tue Jan 02, 2007 11:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Awsome for Museume and Happyness, Looks Like happyness could go 170m and musume 230m |
|
| Author: | STEVE ROGERS [ Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Thegun wrote: Zingaling wrote: BTW, for the record, Rocky Balboa did drop over 40% on Sunday. Yes it did, still doesnt explain why. Anywho, amazing increase for Happy Feet, doesnt look like it will hit 200 million, but Casino Royale looks like it can push to 160 million. congrats and said in another thread, Rocky Balboa is the first Sylvester Stallone film to pass 50 million in the United States in 12 years. What does it matter why ROCKY dropped?? The fact is is that it dropped because no one wanted to see ROCKY on Sunday and had better things to do.. That's a pretty simple answer without having to read so much into it.. |
|
| Page 1 of 2 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|