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Weekend Estimates (Mojo)
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Author:  O [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates (Mojo)
TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 N Night at the Museum Fox $30,800,000 - 3,685 - $8,358 $30,800,000 - 1
2 1 The Pursuit of Happyness Sony $15,000,000 -43.5% 2,863 +11 $5,239 $53,287,000 $55 2
3 N Rocky Balboa MGM $12,540,000 - 3,017 - $4,156 $22,233,000 $24 1
4 N The Good Shepherd Uni. $9,979,000 - 2,215 - $4,505 $9,979,000 - 1
5 3 Charlotte's Web (2006) Par. $8,000,000 -30.2% 3,728 +162 $2,145 $26,809,000 $85 2
6 2 Eragon Fox $7,150,000 -69.2% 3,030 +10 $2,359 $37,645,000 $100 2
7 N We Are Marshall WB $6,640,000 - 2,606 +1,606 $2,547 $7,745,000 - 1
8 4 Happy Feet WB $5,145,000 -38.4% 2,565 -770 $2,005 $159,101,000 $100 6
9 5 The Holiday Sony $5,000,000 -37.6% 2,635 +21 $1,897 $35,093,000 $85 3
10 9 The Nativity Story NL $4,650,000 -0.1% 1,824 -750 $2,549 $31,335,000 $35 4
11 8 Casino Royale Sony $3,100,000 -44.9% 1,588 -849 $1,952 $143,669,000 $150 6
12 7 Blood Diamond WB $3,040,000 -53.4% 1,920 +10 $1,583 $25,043,000 $100 3
13 6 Apocalypto BV $3,018,000 -62.3% 2,144 -321 $1,407 $34,742,000 $40 3
- 13 The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause BV $1,108,000 -41.5% 801 -734 $1,383 $82,221,000 - 8
- 11 Deja Vu BV $716,000 -75.9% 839 -1,146 $853 $59,835,000 $75 5
- 14 Borat Fox $560,000 -63.7% 458 -493 $1,222 $124,244,000 $18 8
- 12 Deck the Halls Fox $550,000 -71.4% 751 -1,100 $732 $34,118,000 - 5
- 22 Volver SPC $519,000 +65.6% 118 +73 $4,398 $3,544,000 - 8
- N Curse of the Golden Flower SPC $489,000 - 60 - $8,150 $503,000 - 1
- 15 The Queen Mira. $433,000 -35.1% 302 -181 $1,433 $26,471,000 - 13
- 17 Babel ParV $308,000 -37.9% 208 -12 $1,480 $18,871,000 - 9
- N Letters from Iwo Jima WB $76,500 - 5 - $15,300 $116,000 $15 1
- N The Painted Veil WIP $47,000 - 4 - $11,750 $68,000 - 1
- N Venus Mira. $36,200 - 3 - $12,066 $42,000 - 1
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
Excellent for Night at the Museum. It should be good for $150m+ total.

A little disappointed with Rocky. I know that all the films have large drops on Sunday and weak Saturday increases, but I still expected Rocky to be closer to $15m for the 3-day weekend. But $22m 5-day ain't bad.

We Are Marshall... awful. Talk about a major disaster. I'm sure it's not a huge financial loss, but a football film like that should have opened to at least $10m. Poorly marketed.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
Wow, does that make Apocalypto the fastest falling #1 movie of all time? From 1 to 13 in three weeks!

Terrible for Eragon, yay! Actually, everything fell a lot. Happyness, Blood Diamond (Despite awesome WOM and adding theaters), Deja Vu, yowza.

Kinda disappointing for Iwo Jima. For such a heavily hyped flick, it should've done MUCH better in limited release.
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates (Mojo)
O wrote:
N Letters from Iwo Jima WB $76,500 - 5 - $15,300 $116,000 $15 1


That's a very poor PTA for Letters. Not a good showing.

O wrote:
11 8 Casino Royale Sony $3,100,000 -44.9% 1,588 -849 $1,952 $143,669,000 $150 6


Looks like Casino Royale will likely become the highest grossing James Bond film! Way to go Daniel Craig.

And of course Night at the Museum really cleaned up well.

Peace,
Mike.
Author:  Tyler [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Everything fell hard due to the 24th. It always hugely inflates drops when on a weekend.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
So much for the whole "Oh, We Are Marshall is gonna be HUGE!" talk....

Rocky Balboa opened just fine. It should go on and pass $60 million with relative ease and for that film (budget less than $25 million) and considering that Stallone is far from a big draw now, it's great.

Anyone else actually surprised why The Holiday isn't doing better than it is right now? I mean it had so much going for it with the cast, the director and the great release date. I thought it'd easily pass $100 million initially...

Casino Royale is still doing very well. Next weekend it'll rebound. $155 million is locked at this point and $160 million is likely. Worldwide it should be good for $500+ million. Gigantic success.

Happy Feet won't be passing $200 million now, but $180-190 million could still be very possible.
Author:  xiayun [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 2:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
Not bad for Curse of the Golden Flower, being in 60 theaters instead of 4 or 5 and still mired in a rotten rating at RT (although I think MC's average of 74 is more accurate reflection of critics' opinions; unfortunately, RT is still much more popular).
Author:  almost famous [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 3:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
Could anyone explain why We Are Marshall has 6,64 weekend gross and 7,745 total?
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 3:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
Were there 10PM showing on THur for it perhaps, almost famous?

Eh, boring really. I was wanting N@tM to break out to make this winter somewhat exiting, but it could fall under 30M once actuals are released.

Rocky is bleh, average.

Alot of big drops.

Nativity didnt even drop, haha.
Author:  ashwani [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 4:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
I hope NATM can remain an $30 million for this weekend and can do $140+ million domestically.
Author:  MGKC [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 5:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
We Are Marshall just suffered from competition. Teens and college kids would choose Ben Stiller over it, and adult moviegoers would choose Rocky Balboa over it as well.
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 6:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
People, by opening to $30 m this very deflated opening weekend, Museum isn't a $150 m candidate, its very likely to get past $200 m imo. It's a $200 m candidate. It would have opened to high $30's without Sat/Sun holiday influences. I will state now that #2-#5 for this year are still up in the air, as Museum has a strong chance at changing the ranks.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yes O's analysis yesterday indictates atleast $200m for Musuem. At worst it can do $180m+. Don't forget guys the next 4 days will be HUGE for every film. Then net weekend every film will hold really well.

Lecter, as for Holiday - yes im just as surprised. Most of us expected over $100m or atleast $80m and it will struggle to get that far. I think its just a matter of too many films being released at once. This will become a major problem in the first half of 2007. Overall BO will be up - but average grosses will be down due to too many films being released.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Seriously, The Holiday was the first really big date flick in a long time, the holiday theme is perfect, the director had two huge December release in the past, the cast is good...why this is struggling to even make Maid in Manhattan's numbers (which had direct competition from Two Weeks Notice later on) is beyond me.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
And the only date flick. Add to that - films like Failure to Launch are making more money. Its just strange. And its a good film too. Perhaps its the fact that its over 2 hours long which could be restricting showtimes as well. This is a major stumbling block for women who are busy shopping before Christmas. It will pick up after Christmas but it may be a bit too late.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 7:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
[quote="Dr. Lecter"]So much for the whole "Oh, We Are Marshall is gonna be HUGE!" talk....

Rocky Balboa opened just fine. It should go on and pass $60 million with relative ease and for that film (budget less than $25 million) and considering that Stallone is far from a big draw now, it's great.

Anyone else actually surprised why The Holiday isn't doing better than it is right now? I mean it had so much going for it with the cast, the director and the great release date. I thought it'd easily pass $100 million initially...

quote]

Haha, not me, I saw Family Stone numbers a while ago, it just looked really awful. It should still be able to make more than Family Stone though.

And Im happy with Rocky, just kind of confused, I really didn't know how this weekend was going to perform. From this point, I think that it should be near 55 million by next weekend. 5 million Monday, and 4 million weekdays, followed by what could be a 12-15 million weekend or so.

Heres hoping to higher actuals for all
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Holiday imo still has half of its gross to go. While it appears disappointing, this week works miracles for rom com's. But they are the genre most hurt from busy shopping. Even What Women Want, which made $64.46 m in its first 10 days (From Dec 15th to Dec 24th), made $51.305 m in its following 8 days (79.6% of its opening 10 day gross). Business will be very brisk for it, being the sole rom com. Even if it has disappointed a bit so far, like rom coms have done every year that may have disappointed earlier in the month, it should redeem itself, and still add another 1/2 to its gross.

Also, people don't hope for higher weekend actuals. Sunday drops are horrendous, but midweek sales are tremendous! :tongue: It's the jumps on Dec. 26th that are most important imo. Weekend Sunday #'s don't mean much for the film's totals...
Author:  Ripper [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Seriously, The Holiday was the first really big date flick in a long time, the holiday theme is perfect, the director had two huge December release in the past, the cast is good...why this is struggling to even make Maid in Manhattan's numbers (which had direct competition from Two Weeks Notice later on) is beyond me.


Marketing, I am one of those people who helped make her lsat two December releases a success, and I had zero interest in the Holiday.
Author:  Alex Y. [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
MadGez wrote:
And the only date flick. Add to that - films like Failure to Launch are making more money. Its just strange. And its a good film too. Perhaps its the fact that its over 2 hours long which could be restricting showtimes as well. This is a major stumbling block for women who are busy shopping before Christmas. It will pick up after Christmas but it may be a bit too late.


Romantic comedies tend to be more successful if it has a strong male lead like Matthew McConaughey, Jack Nicholson, Will Smith, Mel Gibson, etc. Jude Law and Jack Black seem to be only supporting characters in this film so they won't draw. I'm not sure if this is because females want some male eye candy or if males are more willing to go with some kind of male protagonist in the movie.
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think it may also be a case of women not liking Cameron Diaz? The Sweetest Thing, In Her Shoes...she can't anchor a rom com.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
O wrote:
I think it may also be a case of women not liking Cameron Diaz? The Sweetest Thing, In Her Shoes...she can't anchor a rom com.


Diaz is really the most overpaid underachiever I've ever seen. Outside of Theres Something About Mary, the Mask, which were high concept comedies, she had Charlies Angels. Nothing else in her life was good.
Author:  MovieDude [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Well the cast really wasn't nearly as stellar as people were making it out to be. Two of the stars are box office poison, and Jack Black's audience wouldn't want to see a film like that. Also, it looked too fluffy - there wasn't really much of a plot, just two women switch houses and have a really good time hooking up with guys.
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
Charlotte's Web:

Dec 15–17 3 $11,457,353 - 3,566 - $3,212 $11,457,353 1
Dec 22–24 5 $8,000,000
(Estimate) -30.2% 3,728 +162 $2,145 $26,809,000
(Estimate) 2

Stuart Little:

Dec 17–19 1 $15,018,223 - 2,878 - $5,218 $15,018,223 1
Dec 24–26 3 $11,816,099 -21.3% 2,900 +22 $4,074 $39,474,962 2

SL had both Dec. 25th and 26th to help boost its 2nd weekend hold. So considering CW pulled a 30% drop with the distractions, its quite solid. SL also had Galaxy Quest as the sole opener with a somewhat similar audience. CW has Night At The Museum. So all things considered, CW is picking up steam. It has a 2.34 multiplier after just 10 days of release. SL was at a 2.64 multiplier from its opening after 10 days, but its 9th and 10th days were Dec 25/26th.
Author:  Michael. [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 9:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Holiday is a rather large hit over here. Not so much in America
Author:  Michael. [ Sun Dec 24, 2006 9:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
MovieDude wrote:
Well the cast really wasn't nearly as stellar as people were making it out to be. Two of the stars are box office poison, and Jack Black's audience wouldn't want to see a film like that. Also, it looked too fluffy - there wasn't really much of a plot, just two women switch houses and have a really good time hooking up with guys.


apparently you think everyone is box office posion.

The entire point of the cast was bringing varied audiences together. Kate Winslet fans arent exactly the same people as Jack Black fans. I believe The Holiday should have been released earlier.
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