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Dec 22-25 predictions
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=25945		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  El Maskado [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Dec 22-25 predictions
4-day predictions

Rocky Balboa 33.0 ( 46 million 6 day)
Night at the Museum 36 million
We Are Marshall 13.5 million
The Good Shepard 11.0 million
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Someone needs to stay out of Granny's moonshine.

Anyway, I'll wait. I really, really hate predicting Christmas weekend.
Author:  El Maskado [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Awards Czar Jon wrote:
Someone needs to stay out of Granny's moonshine.

Anyway, I'll wait. I really, really hate predicting Christmas weekend.


Err? Well i just use a multiplier of 1.5-1.6 for 4 day. sounds reasonable
Author:  zingy [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 2:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
4-Day
Night at the Museum - $40.5 million
Rocky Balboa - $25.1 million ($36.3 million 6-day)
We Are Marshall - $19.3 million
The Good Shepherd - $13.4 million

Roid, in 2000 (same weekend dates, 22nd-25th), the multipliers, on average, were roughly 1.35 for all films except kids films, which were closer to 1.25. Your multipliers are extremely high.
Author:  DIB2 [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 3:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
4-day predictions

Night At the Museum - 34m
Rocky Balboa - 20.4m
We Are Marshall - 10.1m
The Good Shepherd - 14.7m
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sat Dec 16, 2006 11:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
This weekend could potentially be huge.. last year the three day weekend did 100 million and the 4-day weekend did 159 million with Kong on top... if Night at the Museum and Rocky VI both perform well, we will outdo that for sure...
Author:  misterglass [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:18 am ]
Post subject: 
All 3-Day (I wonder if BOM will do 3 or 4-day...HSX is doing a 3-day thing I believe)
Night at the Museum 33.3
Rocky Balboa 18.3 ($28 million five-day from Weds)
Pursuit of Happyness 15.5
Eragon 13
The Good Shepherd 11.2
We Are Marshall 10.5
Charlotte's Web 9.5
Author:  Quint [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm terrible at predicting holidays, so I won't, but since Black Christmas opens on Christmas, shouldn't it be part of everyone's predictions?
Author:  Kenspy [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
1-day prediction?

Maybe if nobody predicts it, they won't release it. We can only hope...
Author:  El Maskado [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Thats probably the biggest bonehead decision by the studios to release the movie on a X-mas day thats falls on monday. Pretty much its a bad for a horror movie but there goes their gimmack completely. It would have made more sense to at least release on friday
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
We predicted 1-day for Rumor Has It and Wolf Creek last year, I guess we will for Black Christmas as well.
Author:  O [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think Dreamgirls could do $5 m on Monday from 800 theaters, for a $6,250 avg for that day. I think there will be a bit of a rush out as with Ali, but it'll still have a good weekend the following week. Ali did $10.2 m from 2400ish theaters, but Dreamgirls, even in 800, I think could pull $5 m.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 5:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Double Post Double Post
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 5:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
Night at the Museum - $25/33M
Rocky Balboa - $17/$22/$33M
We Are Marshall - $10/13M
The Good Shepherd - $8/11M
Black Christmas - $3M
Dreamgirls - $2M

The Pursuit of Happyness -35%
Eragon -60%
Charlotte's Web -20%
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 5:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Just a friendly holiday reminder to not drink and over-predict over the holidays.

Thank you!
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
I really have no idea at this stage, but here are the 4 days...

Night at the Museum $38.1m
Rocky Balboa $27.2m ($35.1m 6 day)
We Are Marshall $16.8m
The Good Shepard $12.7m
Author:  El Maskado [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
Awards Czar Jon wrote:
Just a friendly holiday reminder to not drink and over-predict over the holidays.

Thank you!


Yeah you're right

Revised now
4-day predictions

Rocky Balboa 34.0 ( 46 million 6 day)
Night at the Museum 32.0 million
We Are Marshall 12.0 million
The Good Shepard 11.0 million
Dreamgirls 3.0 million
Black X-mas 2.8 million
Author:  David [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 6:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
December 22, 2006 /// Predictions.

(All predictions are for the four-day, Friday-to-Monday period, unless otherwise noted.)

Night at the Museum: $41.5 million
Rocky Balboa: $18.5 million (Six-day: $29.1 million)
We Are Marshall: $15.7 million
The Good Shepherd: $13.3 million
Dreamgirls: $3.1 million (One-day)
Black Christmas: $2.8 million (One-day)
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 7:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated:

4-Day
Night at the Museum - $37 million
Rocky Balboa - $23 million
We Are Marshall - $14 million
The Good Shepherd - $12 million
Dreamgirls - $3 million (1-day)
Black Christmas - $1.6 million (don't forget, it's in 1000 theaters)
Author:  Outatime [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 7:19 pm ]
Post subject: 
Night at the Museum - $39.1m
Rocky Balboa - $29.4m
We Are Marshall - $19.0m
The Good Shepherd - $14.8m
Dreamgirls - $4.6m
Black Christmas - $2.2m
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 8:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
Zingaling wrote:
Updated:

4-Day
Dreamgirls - $3 million (1-day)
Black Christmas - $1.6 million (don't forget, it's in 1000 theaters)


Dreamgirls is in 800 theaters.

And Black Christmas should do well on Christmas simply for the fitting date. I think a run similar to The Omen is likely (At a thir of the size).
Author:  David [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 8:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dreamgirls can gross $3 million from 800+ theatres in one day.
Author:  DIB2 [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 8:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated
3-Day

1. Night at the Museum - 30m
2. Rocky Balboa - 15.9m
3. The Pursuit of Happyness - 15.4m
4. Charlottes Web - 10.0m
5. Eragon - 9.4m
6. The Good Shepherd - 9.2m
7. We Are Marshall - 8.1m
8. Happy Feet - 6.8m
9. Nativity Story - 5.2m
10. Blood Diamond - 4.7m
11. The Holiday - 4.2m
12. Casino Royal - 3.7m
13. Apocalypto - 3.7m

-Dream Girls - 3.5m
-Black Christmas: 1.5m
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
El_Masked_fuerte_grande wrote:
Awards Czar Jon wrote:
Just a friendly holiday reminder to not drink and over-predict over the holidays.

Thank you!


Yeah you're right

Revised now
4-day predictions

Rocky Balboa 34.0 ( 46 million 6 day)
Night at the Museum 32.0 million
We Are Marshall 12.0 million
The Good Shepard 11.0 million
Dreamgirls 3.0 million
Black X-mas 2.8 million


So if Black X-mas does 2.8, even 3 Million for Christmas Day, it would have to be considered a hit if it only cost what?? About 1 Million to make, right ??? :tongue: I mean, it isn't like it has an All Star Cast or anything and hoiw hard is it to make something like this?? Jesus, I'm desperate to get some box office right after blowing Charlotte's Web.. :lol:
Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
CASINO_BKB wrote:
El_Masked_fuerte_grande wrote:
Awards Czar Jon wrote:
Just a friendly holiday reminder to not drink and over-predict over the holidays.

Thank you!


Black X-mas 2.8 million


So if Black X-mas does 2.8, even 3 Million for Christmas Day, it would have to be considered a hit if it only cost what?? About 1 Million to make, right ??? :tongue: I mean, it isn't like it has an All Star Cast or anything and hoiw hard is it to make something like this?? Jesus, I'm desperate to get some box office right after blowing Charlotte's Web.. :lol:


Considering it only cost 10 million, Black Christmas is basically guaranteed to make a profit. Even if it flops in theatres it will do decently on DVD.

Predictions (I'll take a stab at it):

NATM - 35 mil.
Rocky - 25 mil.
MRSHL - 17 mil.
GSHEP - 12 mil.
BLKCH - 2 mil.
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