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WOKJ Weekend Analysis Sep 29-Oct 1 & gross projections
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=23991		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Oct 01, 2006 6:49 pm ]
Post subject:  WOKJ Weekend Analysis Sep 29-Oct 1 & gross projections
Http://www.worldofkj.com/boxoffice/Wrap ... mber29.php


Enjoy! :)
Author:  paper [ Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
Your analysis seems spot on as usual Lecter!
My only suggestion (a petty one at that) is, throughout each week, I can't help but realize the extreme number of times you use the word 'harsh' ;)

EDIT: Actually I don't really think LMS will 'struggle' to 60 million. It needs roughly a 4x multiplier from here on in just to hit 60 million, which almost all solid-reviewed movies do towards the end of their runs...It should easily make it without awards help to 63-64 million I think, with another 5-10 million with good awards buzz.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:17 pm ]
Post subject: 
the french man wrote:
Your analysis seems spot on as usual Lecter!
My only suggestion (a petty one at that) is, throughout each week, I can't help but realize the extreme number of times you use the word 'harsh' ;)

EDIT: Actually I don't really think LMS will 'struggle' to 60 million. It needs roughly a 4x multiplier from here on in just to hit 60 million, which almost all solid-reviewed movies do towards the end of their runs...It should easily make it without awards help to 63-64 million I think, with another 5-10 million with good awards buzz.


Heh, I'll harshly cut down the use of that word from now on:D

The reason why I believe in somewhat of a struggle is that it will be losing theatres more and more from now on. Three wide releases next weekend, another three the weekend after and then four.
Author:  O [ Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:46 pm ]
Post subject: 
I would also have added the fact that next weekend is a long weekend, thus will really help Open Season out and other films (Can Thanksgiving, Columbus Day). That weekend has been very generous to some other family films (Shark Tale, Wallace and Gromit). Shark Tale was in a similar position as Open Season is. It opened the weekend before the long weekend:

OW: $47.6 m (3.68 multiplier)
2nd weekend: $31.3 m -34% (4day: $36.57 m -23%)

OS had a 3.71 multiplier, and I don't think it could be as bad as Shark Tale was, so it could drop lower than Shark Tale next weekend. I could see Open Season doing $18 m for the 4day weekend next week, or possibly higher.
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