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The Thread Where I Predict POTC 2 To Beat TITANIC..
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Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:37 am ]
Post subject:  The Thread Where I Predict POTC 2 To Beat TITANIC..
Jesus, this movie is clearly on a steamroll with a FANTASTIC Monday Number at nearly 20 Million bringing it to what?? 150 Million so far and probably excellent daily holds?? I'm trying to figure out how TITANIC pulled this off to get the Domestic Box Office it did with 600 Million and STILL at the #1 spot of Movie Of All Time with no movie surpassing it yet?? It definitely had female appeal and very strong I might add, but then again, so does the POTC 2 and it's predecessor and is also diverse in most age groups of both male and female as well.. With this movie skyrocketing at the box office and ticket prices higher than 97 when TITANIC came out, could POTC 2 or even POTC 3 possibly pull the upset and finally unseat TITANIC as the #1 movie of all time, even perhaps squeeking by it?? It seems to have the reat viewing factor going for it, that much is certain.. :-k

Discuss
Author:  The Scottie [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:42 am ]
Post subject: 
Dream on BKB, dream on....
Author:  Dreamline [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:44 am ]
Post subject: 
:hahaha:
Author:  Jmart [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:57 am ]
Post subject: 
If POTC 2 breaks Titanic's record, Superman Returns will go on to make $300 million domestically.
Author:  BJ [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:58 am ]
Post subject: 
It would be a dissapointment, I cant agree with this one.
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:28 am ]
Post subject: 
jmart007 wrote:
If POTC 2 breaks Titanic's record, Superman Returns will go on to make $300 million domestically.


Dude, I'd say at this point as unbelieveable as this may seem, but POTC 2 probably has more of a chance at breaking TITANIC'S Box Office or at least matching it than SR has at even breaking 190 Million.. You need to let go of SR and admit it's a BUST and it's only a matter of time before people finally given in and admit it..
Author:  Anonymous [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 6:41 am ]
Post subject: 
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689
Author:  MadGez [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:42 am ]
Post subject: 
No it wont happen. More like $390-$400m maybe $450m at best.
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:49 am ]
Post subject: 
Nebs wrote:
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689


Sorry, didn't see it, however, before I call it a day and get some sleep from working all night I have to ask: What was it about TITANIC and the Year 1997 when it came out that caused it to have the legs it did to enable it to gross that freak of Nature box office of 600 Million that no movie 9 years later has managed to do so yet, even through ticket inflation and more theatres and screens now including IMAX??? Is it because back then, the term "FRONTLOADED" didn't exist or movie's weren't being released to DVD as quick as they do today or what??
Author:  baumer72 [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:07 am ]
Post subject: 
MIAMI_BKB wrote:
Nebs wrote:
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689


Sorry, didn't see it, however, before I call it a day and get some sleep from working all night I have to ask: What was it about TITANIC and the Year 1997 when it came out that caused it to have the legs it did to enable it to gross that freak of Nature box office of 600 Million that no movie 9 years later has managed to do so yet, even through ticket inflation and more theatres and screens now including IMAX??? Is it because back then, the term "FRONTLOADED" didn't exist or movie's weren't being released to DVD as quick as they do today or what??


Pretty much all of that. And it is just a timeless story that affected most who saw it. The repeat business was off the charts.
Author:  MadGez [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:29 am ]
Post subject: 
MIAMI_BKB wrote:
Nebs wrote:
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689


Sorry, didn't see it, however, before I call it a day and get some sleep from working all night I have to ask: What was it about TITANIC and the Year 1997 when it came out that caused it to have the legs it did to enable it to gross that freak of Nature box office of 600 Million that no movie 9 years later has managed to do so yet, even through ticket inflation and more theatres and screens now including IMAX??? Is it because back then, the term "FRONTLOADED" didn't exist or movie's weren't being released to DVD as quick as they do today or what??


Actually BKB, it was a freak back then even. The fact that it grossed almost $140m more than the previous No.1 makes it all the more incredible and harder to catch.

It had many things going for it.

1. Attracted women, men, kids and elderly - every market segment. Everyone wanted to see it .
2. One of the rare occurences (at the time) of great special effects and quality story
3. Romance for women, made em cry at the end
4. Action for men
5. Had alot of negative publicity in the two years up to its release. This created awareness and then the publicity became positive.
6. Weak competition in the first quarter of 1998
7. Repeat viewings. No DVD (It was in its infancy at the time) to cut theatrical short.
8. Great release date.
9. Awards and Oscars added more $$$
10. Its phenomenonal success was widely reported in the media and this bread more success

Everything came together for it.
Author:  baumer72 [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:17 am ]
Post subject: 
MadGez wrote:
MIAMI_BKB wrote:
Nebs wrote:
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689


Sorry, didn't see it, however, before I call it a day and get some sleep from working all night I have to ask: What was it about TITANIC and the Year 1997 when it came out that caused it to have the legs it did to enable it to gross that freak of Nature box office of 600 Million that no movie 9 years later has managed to do so yet, even through ticket inflation and more theatres and screens now including IMAX??? Is it because back then, the term "FRONTLOADED" didn't exist or movie's weren't being released to DVD as quick as they do today or what??


Actually BKB, it was a freak back then even. The fact that it grossed almost $140m more than the previous No.1 makes it all the more incredible and harder to catch.

It had many things going for it.

1. Attracted women, men, kids and elderly - every market segment. Everyone wanted to see it .
2. One of the rare occurences (at the time) of great special effects and quality story
3. Romance for women, made em cry at the end
4. Action for men
5. Had alot of negative publicity in the two years up to its release. This created awareness and then the publicity became positive.
6. Weak competition in the first quarter of 1998
7. Repeat viewings. No DVD (It was in its infancy at the time) to cut theatrical short.
8. Great release date.
9. Awards and Oscars added more $$$
10. Its phenomenonal success was widely reported in the media and this bread more success

Everything came together for it.


You can probably add that it made men break down and cry as well, and not just at the end. It had numerous moments when I wanted to sob.
Author:  yearsago [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:59 am ]
Post subject: 
Titanic was strange. THe repeat business was crazy. I didnt even really liked the movie, and yet I had 4 dates that wanted to go see the movie. I Saw the movie 3 more times than I wanted, but when the date wants to see Titanic, are you really going to argue?

And this movie was in the theaters for what..7-8 months?

Just crazy.
Author:  Thegun [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:09 am ]
Post subject: 
No, whats funny is that Pirates will open 106million higher than Titanic, and wont come in within 200 million of Titanic. Thats my prediction.

Now if Pirates can hit 250 milion by the end of the weekend, it might have an outside shot at 400 million.
Author:  Mister Ecks [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:22 am ]
Post subject: 
Shrek 2 is probably a better prediction. Spider-Man, if you want to be safe.
Author:  torrino [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:27 am ]
Post subject: 
Yeah, it doesn't have a chance.

Plus, Disney will take it out of theatres in a matter of months to get the DVD ready for Xmas.
Author:  A. G. [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:50 am ]
Post subject: 
MadGez wrote:
MIAMI_BKB wrote:
Nebs wrote:
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21689


Sorry, didn't see it, however, before I call it a day and get some sleep from working all night I have to ask: What was it about TITANIC and the Year 1997 when it came out that caused it to have the legs it did to enable it to gross that freak of Nature box office of 600 Million that no movie 9 years later has managed to do so yet, even through ticket inflation and more theatres and screens now including IMAX??? Is it because back then, the term "FRONTLOADED" didn't exist or movie's weren't being released to DVD as quick as they do today or what??


Actually BKB, it was a freak back then even. The fact that it grossed almost $140m more than the previous No.1 makes it all the more incredible and harder to catch.

It had many things going for it.

1. Attracted women, men, kids and elderly - every market segment. Everyone wanted to see it .
2. One of the rare occurences (at the time) of great special effects and quality story
3. Romance for women, made em cry at the end
4. Action for men
5. Had alot of negative publicity in the two years up to its release. This created awareness and then the publicity became positive.
6. Weak competition in the first quarter of 1998
7. Repeat viewings. No DVD (It was in its infancy at the time) to cut theatrical short.
8. Great release date.
9. Awards and Oscars added more $$$
10. Its phenomenonal success was widely reported in the media and this bread more success

Everything came together for it.

Most of those factors, other than the crying and awards, can also be attributed to Pirates 2. Pirates 2 has huge awareness, gets all demos, has a heavier percentage of women than most blockbusters, has action, romance, and no worse a story than that silly stereotype filled Titanic script. It also has little competition for a few weeks and even after that with MV it is not direct competition.

I don't expect this to beat Titanic but it has the best chance of any movie since Titanic and likely for the next few years as well.
Author:  jaridas [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:09 pm ]
Post subject: 
If this has any chance of beating titanic (which i really doubt, itll do well but not nearly any where near that well) disney will keep it in cinemas. Disney would rather the bragging rights of having the highest grossing movie domestiv EVER above a mill DVD sales.
Author:  baumer72 [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
yearsago wrote:
Titanic was strange. THe repeat business was crazy. I didnt even really liked the movie, and yet I had 4 dates that wanted to go see the movie. I Saw the movie 3 more times than I wanted, but when the date wants to see Titanic, are you really going to argue?

And this movie was in the theaters for what..7-8 months?

Just crazy.


You had 3 dates in 8 months? You dog you!!! Promiscuous boy.
Author:  DIB2 [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
Pirates 2 would need a 4.45 Multiplier, I dont now if anyone can predict this movies final gross, But the average multiplier for a Blockbuster that breaks the opening weekend record scince the thousands is 3.55, and if Pirates got that it would top out with 481m.

The films that broke the record before were Harry Potter and Spiderman, and they stared there franchises, so there multipliers should be better. If I went by the the worse multiplier for a blockbuster,( The Lost World 97 3.19 multiplier), that broke the record pirates would make 430m. I dont know if pirates 2 has better whom than The Lost World, But if its wom is better I dont see it making anything less than 470m

Beating Titanic is posible, But I dont see it Happening.
Author:  Jmart [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 1:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
MIAMI_BKB wrote:
jmart007 wrote:
If POTC 2 breaks Titanic's record, Superman Returns will go on to make $300 million domestically.


Dude, I'd say at this point as unbelieveable as this may seem, but POTC 2 probably has more of a chance at breaking TITANIC'S Box Office or at least matching it than SR has at even breaking 190 Million.. You need to let go of SR and admit it's a BUST and it's only a matter of time before people finally given in and admit it..


That's why I made the joke. :shades:

It'll make $190 though.

As for Pirates, it deserves every penny it gets since it's about as close to perfect entertainment as you will find, but it'll come well short of Titanic.
Author:  Excel [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 3:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
i agree. its gonna have 260 by sunday, and then itll have 340-350 by the next sunday.
Author:  nghtvsn [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Answer is still NO. The only thing that I could see beating Titanic at this point could possibly be Shrek 3 if it improves on the run of Shrek 2. After that film we'll have to wait even more years before anything gets near Titanic domestic or WW, so please stop fainting over these opening weekend numbers which were bound to happen at some point if the studios would release some of the past tent pole films on friday like ROTS.
Author:  Shack [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
The movie that beats Titanic won't be an uber blockbuster like POTC2, Shrek 3, or any of the other hyped projects in the next couple years. It'll either be:

a) Star Wars, thanks to another re-release. Maybe in 2009 or 2010.

b) A movie just like Titanic or E.T., one that opens moderate and then has godly repeat business and legs. Something that'll perform like Titanic, on a slightly bigger scale. Repeat business and the phenomenom thing is what it needs. It'll be something we don't necessarily see coming.

or

c) A blockbuster, but not until like 2018 where inflation has pushed the frontloaded blockbusters to that level.
Author:  deathawk [ Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:31 pm ]
Post subject: 
Shack wrote:
The movie that beats Titanic won't be an uber blockbuster like POTC2, Shrek 3, or any of the other hyped projects in the next couple years. It'll either be:

a) Star Wars, thanks to another re-release. Maybe in 2009 or 2010.

b) A movie just like Titanic or E.T., one that opens moderate and then has godly repeat business and legs. Something that'll perform like Titanic, on a slightly bigger scale. Repeat business and the phenomenom thing is what it needs. It'll be something we don't necessarily see coming.

or

c) A blockbuster, but not until like 2018 where inflation has pushed the frontloaded blockbusters to that level.


A & C are far more likely scenarios than B. The problem with B is that in the DVD era, the only movie that has truly shown the legs required was MBFGW, which in the legs department actually benefited from not achieving a large number of theaters until late in its run. Which is to say, it built up demand for 200+M over the course of its run. I just don't see how a film can build that much demand within run now. I think you could replicate its run, but not Titanics.

I would say:
a) 75% chance of working. The gap is still pretty large, even if one factors in the fanatacism of star wars fans in this regard. OTOH, if that release got it close enough, they would push it over.

b) 5% chance by 2020.

c) 80% chance. This is either 100% or 0% if you make it a range from 2015-2025. Inflation will eventually allow one of these Front loaded blockbusters to do it.

I included 0% chance in c) because it would not suprise me if there were some major change to the way the movie business works in that span, and as I have no real thought on what that might be, I can't say if it would help or hurt. I just feel certain something will happen that shows its impact by 2020 the same way DVD did 2002-4.
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