World of KJ :: View topic - Weekend Actuals

xiayun wrote:

1 new Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Buena Vista - Rated PG-13 1 4133 $135,634,554 $135,634,554 new

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

BJ wrote:

not falling over 50% today

42%-49%

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

BJ wrote:

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall :nonono:

3.8+ multiplyer

Speevy wrote:

BJ wrote:

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall :nonono:

3.8+ multiplyer

That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8.

DP07 wrote:

They are just adjusting the legs to make it closer to their original predictions.

DP07 wrote:

Forget it.

Final: 177m/550m

OD: 65m

Well, I'm tempted to predict that. But, should I? Now, I'm thinking twice. Perhaps I should hedge with only 162m.

Zingaling wrote:

DP07 wrote:

They are just adjusting the legs to make it closer to their original predictions.

And you and BJ aren't? :tongue:

DP07 wrote:

Forget it.

Final: 177m/550m

OD: 65m

Well, I'm tempted to predict that. But, should I? Now, I'm thinking twice. Perhaps I should hedge with only 162m.

That's a 3.39x multiplier with the $162 million prediction. Using that same multiplier, it'd make $460 million total, which is minimum you expect now. Heh.

DP07 wrote:

Speevy wrote:

BJ wrote:

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall :nonono:

3.8+ multiplyer

That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8.

Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc.

Speevy wrote:

DP07 wrote:

Speevy wrote:

BJ wrote:

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall :nonono:

3.8+ multiplyer

That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8.

Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc.

Right, but none of those opened to something as rediculous as 135 million. A 3.0 multplier would put it at 405 million. As much as I hope this movie shatters all kinds of records, realistically I think it will not be able to pull of a 3.0. As much I want it to happen, in this day and age of extreme front-loadedness only one sequel opening up over 100 million, reached a 3.0 multiplier. But then again, Shrek 2 didn't get anywhere near 135 million.

Speevy wrote:

DP07 wrote:

Speevy wrote:

BJ wrote:

baumer72 wrote:

BJ wrote:

4.4m away, so close.

135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall :nonono:

3.8+ multiplyer

That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8.

Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc.

Author:	xiayun [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Weekend Actuals
1 new Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest Buena Vista - Rated PG-13 1 4133 $135,634,554 $135,634,554 new 2 1 Superman Returns Warner Bros. - Rated PG-13 2 4065 $21,815,243 $141,642,667 -58% 3 2 The Devil Wears Prada Fox - Rated PG-13 2 2882 $15,014,778 $63,110,544 -45% 4 3 Click Sony - Rated PG-13 3 3458 $11,921,513 $105,842,811 -40% 5 4 Cars Buena Vista - Rated G 5 3379 $10,734,082 $205,908,484 -26% 6 5 Nacho Libre Paramount - Rated PG 4 2262 $3,339,828 $73,814,240 -49% 7 6 The Lake House Warner Bros. - Rated PG 4 2420 $2,854,457 $45,630,219 -41% 8 7 The Fast And The Furious: Tokyo Drift Universal - Rated PG-13 4 1868 $2,549,855 $57,434,625 -43% 9 8 Waist Deep Focus/Rogue - Rated R 3 864 $1,901,151 $19,207,640 -45% 10 9 The Break Up Universal - Rated PG-13 6 1175 $1,621,345 $114,278,860 -46% 11 10 The Da Vinci Code Sony - Rated PG-13 8 1012 $1,321,762 $213,210,326 -45% 12 13 An Inconvenient Truth Paramount Vantage - Rated PG 7 562 $1,172,984 $15,050,824 -31% http://www.ercboxoffice.com/erc/reports ... osses.html

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Weekend Actuals
xiayun wrote: 1 new Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest Buena Vista - Rated PG-13 1 4133 $135,634,554 $135,634,554 new Dark Shape?

Author:	zingy [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:
I figured it'd be over $135 million with actuals. I'm more interested in the dailies, though. Nice increase for Cars, too.

Author:	trixster [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:
Ooh... DP barely won his bet.

Author:	baumer72 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:53 pm ]
Post subject:
Okay, now, the big question, what is the daily breakdown? But whatever it is, it fucking made more than initially reported!!! That is c razy.

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Weekend Actuals http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=21746	Page 1 of 5

Author:	BJ [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:
4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+

Author:	baumer72 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:
BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here.

Author:	BJ [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:
not falling over 50% today 42%-49%

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:
BJ wrote: not falling over 50% today 42%-49% I agree.

Author:	baumer72 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:
That's a 3 million dollar increase from estimations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Author:	BJ [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:
baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer

Author:	DIB2 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:
hell yeah, 200m in 7days for pirates guaranteed

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:
They are just adjusting the legs to make it closer to their original predictions.

Author:	Speevy [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:
BJ wrote: baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8.

Author:	Lotan [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:
oops, the derby goes half a percent lower.

Author:	Anita Hussein Briem [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:08 pm ]
Post subject:
Ridiculousness is a subjective concept.

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Author:	Mannyisthebest [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:
so i think it broke all the weekend record, biggest sat or sunday! I think!

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:01 pm ]
Post subject:
Speevy wrote: BJ wrote: baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8. Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc.

Author:	zingy [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:
DP07 wrote: They are just adjusting the legs to make it closer to their original predictions. And you and BJ aren't? DP07 wrote: Forget it. Final: 177m/550m OD: 65m Well, I'm tempted to predict that. But, should I? Now, I'm thinking twice. Perhaps I should hedge with only 162m. That's a 3.39x multiplier with the $162 million prediction. Using that same multiplier, it'd make $460 million total, which is minimum you expect now. Heh.

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: DP07 wrote: They are just adjusting the legs to make it closer to their original predictions. And you and BJ aren't? DP07 wrote: Forget it. Final: 177m/550m OD: 65m Well, I'm tempted to predict that. But, should I? Now, I'm thinking twice. Perhaps I should hedge with only 162m. That's a 3.39x multiplier with the $162 million prediction. Using that same multiplier, it'd make $460 million total, which is minimum you expect now. Heh. Waiting for that. We have a reason: the sellouts limited opening weekend. What's yours?

Author:	Speevy [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:
DP07 wrote: Speevy wrote: BJ wrote: baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8. Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc. Right, but none of those opened to something as rediculous as 135 million. A 3.0 multplier would put it at 405 million. As much as I hope this movie shatters all kinds of records, realistically I think it will not be able to pull of a 3.0. As much I want it to happen, in this day and age of extreme front-loadedness only one sequel opening up over 100 million, reached a 3.0 multiplier. But then again, Shrek 2 didn't get anywhere near 135 million.

Author:	bABA [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:
Speevy wrote: DP07 wrote: Speevy wrote: BJ wrote: baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8. Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc. Right, but none of those opened to something as rediculous as 135 million. A 3.0 multplier would put it at 405 million. As much as I hope this movie shatters all kinds of records, realistically I think it will not be able to pull of a 3.0. As much I want it to happen, in this day and age of extreme front-loadedness only one sequel opening up over 100 million, reached a 3.0 multiplier. But then again, Shrek 2 didn't get anywhere near 135 million. a few years ago, a 114 million opening was ridiculous as well.

Author:	DP07 [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:08 pm ]
Post subject:
Speevy wrote: DP07 wrote: Speevy wrote: BJ wrote: baumer72 wrote: BJ wrote: 4.4m away, so close. 135.6m is aweome get ready for 500m+ No way. It will struggle to 400. This will be so frontloaded, it has to drop from here. it has to drop but some are expecting a freefall 3.8+ multiplyer That's absurd. With a 135 million dollar opening it would have to have a rediculous run to even break a 3.0 multiplier. I'm thinking more along the lines 2.75-2.8. Large openings do not limit legs. Passion, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, TPM etc. Right, but none of those opened to something as rediculous as 135 million. A 3.0 multplier would put it at 405 million. As much as I hope this movie shatters all kinds of records, realistically I think it will not be able to pull of a 3.0. As much I want it to happen, in this day and age of extreme front-loadedness only one sequel opening up over 100 million, reached a 3.0 multiplier. But then again, Shrek 2 didn't get anywhere near 135 million. Large openings have never limited legs. They mean nothing in terms of legs. It's no more true then saying large objects fall faster. They don't. Give me any evidence at all of it.

Author:	xiayun [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:10 pm ]
Post subject:
If one checks the BOM chart, among all the films that broke the opening-weekend record over the years, the most frontloaded one is The Lost World, and that only had its opening accounted for 31.5% of its total gross. I don't see a multiplier lower than 3.0.

Author:	zingy [ Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:11 pm ]
Post subject:
I don't have an excuse. I'm still predicing the same multiplier as I was prior to the weekend (3x). That'd give it $406 million, which is what I predicted in the "Top 10 Movies of 2006" thread.