Is it too late to start this club? I know we are only a few days away from the film opening, but all this hype for these two films this year has given me a headache. Really. I get predicting massive numbers for Sith, or Goblet or even for Reloaded. But is Pirates really that big? Does it really have the following to do it? I don't know. I guess on one hand, you had Matrix. It developed a huge following on DVD and thus the markeing machine took over and even with bad WOM, it sill made 280 mill. Now that should indicate that Pirates should sail past 300 mill. And I think it will. But not by much. I think it could make about the same or a bit more than the original. I guess I just have my doubts. 300 is still massive, no doubt, but it is also a very hard number to attain. I think it might top out at about 305-310. A massive opening, and then a steady decline.

Sorry if this is just one more Pirates thread. But I know how many kjers want this film to succeed. I just thought this might be relevant.

307 mill total.

PS..I guess 310 was chosen because that is what Clones got with a big opening and average WOM. I'm wondering if this will be about the same.

i see it getting 320 million if it breaks 100 million on its opening weekend unless the film has bad wom.

with so-so reviews coming in for this movie, i think i will have to lower my 370m prediction. perhaps i will join the club later this week.

No, I think it'll make at least $325 million total.

See, that seems very reasonable to me as well. But I am going with less than 310. I just think that the hype for this film can't possibly be lived up to. It will probably disappoint just like almost everyhting else so far this year.

Sorry, can't join. This will get around $340m at least, i think.

If it falls below 310 million, this would be quite a bad year for movies when so far its pretty much set that only one passed 250 million

Hm, I am tempted, but no.

POTC 1 would now adjust to close to $77.2 m (5day)/$333 m. It had a 6.55 multiplier smack in the middle of July. It will also open in close to 700-800 more theaters, and thousands of more screens. The first also opened against The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, which I'm sure took part of the opening weekend audience away at least, as it did pretty decently ($23 m/$66 m), and both had some demo overlap (ie period piece, action).

POTC 2 has 4000 + theaters, thousands more screens, no competition, a subdued Superman opening, with only 2 other films that may even do $12 m + that weekend (Prada, Superman).

1 Titanic 20.97861023
2 The Sixth Sense $11.00046512
3 Cast Away 8.088801646
4 The Lion King $7.651488863
5 Jurassic Park 7.592856295
6 Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 7.099083952
7 Saving Private Ryan 7.082030758
8 Apollo 13 6.786918036
9 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 6.716800032
10 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 6.65044508
11 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 6.637454442
12 Toy Story 6.581749213
13 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 6.549633257


Here are some stats:

For $25 m + openers, only 13 films have ever had 6.5 + multipliers (Pirates at 6.55).

For this decade (00's), POTC 1 had the third best legs of all $25 m + openers (bested only by LOTR 1, and Castaway, both DECEMBER releases).

For non Nov/Dec releases, POTC 1 ranks as the 9th best legs for $25 m + openers.

For $40 m + openers (which generally would show worse legs on average than $20 m + openers):

1 The Lion King 7.651488863
2 Jurassic Park 7.592856295
3 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 6.65044508
4 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 6.637454442
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 6.549633257

POTC showed among the top 5 legs of all $40 m + openers. Not including LOTR, which was helped out immensely by the holidays, its more like top 4 best legs of all time.

All five of these films were HUGE pop culture phenoms. SW got most of its legs from hype as it was a must see for just about everyone all summer, watercooler wise.

Regardless, all the ingredients show that POTC 2 is set for a monstrous opening. Just ask Shrek (6.35 multiplier, very close to POTC 1).

A 6.55 multiplier is just TOO strong. Sequels to well received films have still gone up from their predecessors more often now (Mummy Returns, Rush Hour 2, Matrix 2). I think at the very least all the people that saw #1 will come to #2.

IN. This will struggle to get to 300

i think there will be always one film that will pass 300 million and this seams to be it.


If not i am going to release the next hit single...

"DVD's KILLED THE MOVIE STAR"


Well i think most of the people who saw the first one will came back to see this. Plus people who never saw this film in theaters but on DVD (which are many including me) can imo match the boxoffice of the first.

Also, just thought I'd add:

Depp only had ONE film open to over $12.5 m pre POTC. That was Sleepy Hollow at $30 m. Post POTC 1, he's had a $23, $18, $56 m, $19.45 m opener for wide release openings. His popularity is still very high, and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory well well was driven to a $56/$206 m finish by Depp's popularity garnered from POTC 1. It essentially behaved as a mini sequel, a tempting for POTC 2. With Depp able to drive Factory to $200 m +, I don't see how way past $300 m +, especially to his BIG film, will be that difficult to do.

true my sister and my cousin watched Charlie only because Deep was in it.

BTW, Clones got $302M in its initial run; it reached $310M with IMAX released in October 2002.

I think it can do anything between $270m to $340m. I'm seeing $315m at this stage. But thats close enough so count me in just for the fun of it - i'll say $309m.

I'm in. For some reason, the number 270 (Even before Madgez wrote it down) keeps popping around in my mind, though I think it will be higher than that.

I think Superman might have enough good word of mouth to cut into Pirates' long term total. The overall competiton won't be very close, but Superman will still cut it down somewhat.

Eee. People, a 6.55 multiplier! No film this decade has had legs that great without having the help of the December holidays. 13.3 MILLION DVD's sold, $235 m worth (#3 for 2003, behind only Nemo and TTT). As box office watchers, all of the ingredients and tracking are indicating a monster uptake of this one. It is the most anticipated film of 2006 imo of average moviegoers. Again, a 6.55 multiplier!

i say 320 million but if its a good film i can see it go much higher.

Also remeber i have noticed that Critics always forget to mention if they found the film entertaining. If this film is alright but very entertaining it will still make tons of cash.

Now RT sometimes hurt movies. Now if pirates stays fresh i don't think it will hurt the film. DVC only got hurt badly because it had A RT score of under 20%.

I think Pirates will get 60-75% and thats pretty alright. Also Dvc was an adult film so reviews effect that group more and reviews won't really influence teens who are the majoirty of the audience.

Baumer, ready to eat crow when this movie passes $310 million in 19 days?

I predicted
99/320

So well ...yes under 310 can happen.

Im going to say no, i have it on $350M

I find it very unlikely, but in all honesty a gross equal to the first wouldn't surprise me *that much*. I think it'll sail past 350 though.

well everyone on BOM is being very conservative and going below 100 million just to make sure they will not get dissapointed.

Eeee, I'm on the edge.

Oh what the hell, count me in.

330 million so no.