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WoKJ Projections for Pirates - 55 to 58 million
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=21695		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  bABA [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:15 am ]
Post subject:  WoKJ Projections for Pirates - 55 to 58 million
http://www.worldofkj.com/articles/Friday/pirates.php

Quote:
Given the cloggedness, I have 120 ratio and $55m as well for the low end. I also used another calculation where I assume the written-to-overall ratio should have been 1 to 4.5. That would give it 8,653.5 reviews, and with my original projected ratio of 150, that's about $58m."
Author:  baumer72 [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:49 am ]
Post subject: 
Does that include the midnight showings from the night before?
Author:  bABA [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 7:52 am ]
Post subject: 
indeedly
Author:  liesse00 [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:00 am ]
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lets hope this holds up
Author:  Rev [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:01 am ]
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$46-$49m.
Author:  Mister Ecks [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:35 am ]
Post subject: 
Wait. IN ONE DAY?! (including the midnight showings)

...
Author:  baumer72 [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:39 am ]
Post subject: 
Mr. X wrote:
Wait. IN ONE DAY?! (including the midnight showings)

...


That's the rumour. That would be unbelievable!! And since I have no emotional connection one way or another, I think this would be fantastic. Finally, a summer film to be truly called a summer film.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:40 am ]
Post subject: 
I do not think that this week's WOKJ projection will be a correct projection.
Author:  paper [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:02 am ]
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I don't either, while it should still probably hit 50 million...But all the way to 58 million!? Nuts.
Author:  Ghostooze [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:10 am ]
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the french man wrote:
I don't either, while it should still probably hit 50 million...But all the way to 58 million!? Nuts.


so it seems im not the only one who thinks thread is not needed.... :nerd:
Author:  deathawk [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:17 am ]
Post subject: 
More of a site suggestion - but a thought for you. The article has a little explanation tag at the bottom that at least gives a sense of how the prediction is done, but it might give a better sense of the usefullness of the method if you included a little table every week showing say the last 4 weeks worth of yahoo derived estimates vs. the actuals.

Monster opening if accurate or even 10% close (which I notice tends to be the outer range when wrong).
Author:  Neostorm [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:18 am ]
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Quote:
I'm told already that, based on today's matinees, Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest will have the biggest opening of any movie in history. Since May 24th, I've been predicting that it was gonna kill everything at the theaters this summer, and then, based on the early tracking, that it was going to be the all-time record-breaker. Now Pirates 2 is set to steal away Spiderman's No. 1 opening gross of $114.8 million...I'm told the movie could take in $45+ million more today if the shows from last night are included in the total. Right now, matinees are headed that way.


Don't know how reliable this person is. Can't wait for #s

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/p ... ning-title
Author:  A. G. [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:21 am ]
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Quote:
Think about it: in one sector of Burbank, Disney's celebrating while in another part of Burbank, Warner's mourning. Dontcha just love Hollywood?

:tongue:
Author:  Neostorm [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:24 am ]
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Here's a yahoo news article that made it to top viewed saying that it will beat Spiderman. They say this according to Brandon's predictions on BOM, so just predictions still.

source


Even Perez Hilton is starting to give projections on this

Quote:
Disney execs are going to be very happy this weekend. PerezHilton.com's box office analyst tells us that Pirates of the Caribbean is going to open HUGE!

Based on business thus far, the film will easily top $100 million Friday - Sunday. Insanely impressive for a non-holiday weekend.

And, the film is even in contention to break the box office record set by Spider Man and have the biggest opening in film history ever.

Stay tuned!


Perez Hilton
Author:  PresidentPalmer [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:26 am ]
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This is going to be a long wait. But damn if this beats Spiderman that is great.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:28 am ]
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MTC: Just slightly over 12.2m for PIRT2 (Thr+Fri) MTC only (not all chains) -- nm - notfabio

Is that good?

STAR3 was 10.8 million for its Thursday+pre-opens. -- nm - notfabio

Guess it is. Unless he means The Star is Born part three.
Author:  Neostorm [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 10:36 am ]
Post subject: 
"Which if it is a straightforward relative bump up nationwide, that would be mid 50's for Friday. -- nm"

Don't understand the relative bump part, but if mid 50s is his estimate then i guess projections are pretty accurate.
Author:  bABA [ Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:15 pm ]
Post subject: 
well ... looks like we got it right again.
Author:  baumer72 [ Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:05 am ]
Post subject: 
Ghostooze wrote:
the french man wrote:
I don't either, while it should still probably hit 50 million...But all the way to 58 million!? Nuts.


so it seems im not the only one who thinks thread is not needed.... :nerd:


You're, in my opinion ( I do not speak for anyone else here at kj, these are my thoughts and my thoughts alone) negative comments are unwlecomed here when it comes to the legitimacy of certain threads. This thread is just as scientific as any other way of predicting the friday numbers. So here's a piece of advice for you the next time you decide to bash the projections done here.....think about it before you criticize it. It does work, give it a chance and you'll warm to it. ;)
Author:  O [ Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:20 am ]
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I know it takes time to get the Yahoo review analysis in, but from an objective observer perspective, if wokj really wants to bring more attention to it, its important to get some more numbers out a bit earlier. Alot of the time, I (living in eastern std. time), will go to sleep, and then when I wake up, will look at it quickly (ie Yahoo reviews thread), but then the Friday #'s are out half an hour or an hr later, so the impact of the analysis could be much greater I think to get a number out a bit earlier. That's where part of the confusion comes up I think from alot of the casual people that stop by here, but dont know too much of how the system works, and often confuse it as an official Friday number. Ie. I think some type of guage system where people continually refine their estimates along the way, and pinpoint it down to a final tally, that visitors can watch, to see the process a bit more, and be able to follow it more easily (I've been here a while, and still it can be challenging). Righ tnow, most of the action doesn't really happen until near the very end of the day.

Ex. Maybe something on the main site, with hourly changes to the Yahoo reviews, and then have a few updated projections, before the absolutely final one made at the end, just so that those people that aren't able to see the final #'s in time, can be part of the gauging of the film.

Ex.:

"1:00 pm est 4000 + 354 reviews, B+

This is a strong performance so far for movie A. A similar ex. is ___. It is still too early to tell, but we could be looking at about ___ for Friday. The reviews and ratio of written reviews to total is a very encouraging sign."

"7:00 pm est 6352 +633 A-"

Movie A continued its strong performance, and we are able to narrow the film down to _, for a _ ratio for Friday, which is similar to ____.

I think the interest factor for Yahoo reviews is that its in real time, but people unaware of really how they work, just look, but then are lost, and alot of the time, the prime time for them is earlier in the afternoon, rather than late at night. So I think it would be a good idea for WOKJ, and the Yahoo reviews thread in general, to branch out into a more real time experience for the site visitor, and that will really help out the site. Ie I know that its an ongoing analysis in the forum, but just on the main site, I think it would be great to have a realtime experience that is a bit simpler to follow for the average movie fan. Ex. Things like a Yahoo reviews ticker on the front page itself, and the currently hourly consensus of where it could be heading. Very similar to the style of LMI ticker that goes on, but more just centered around the Yahoo reviews thread analysis.

That is all from me! I hope people appreciate my suggestion.
Author:  lilmac [ Sun Jul 09, 2006 1:35 am ]
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Wow, they were very close.
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