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July 7-9 Predictions
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Author:  O [ Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:53 pm ]
Post subject:  July 7-9 Predictions
Yes, I know its early. But I love doing early predictions, and this could be the weekend where Spiderman's record is beaten, so why not start early?

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest 4,000

1 POTC 2 $116 m ($29,000 average)
2 Superman $28.32 m -52%
3 The Devil Wears Prada $12.73 m -33%
4 Click $11.97 m -37%
5 Cars $9.45 m -37%

Top 5 total: $178.47 m :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:
Author:  Mannyisthebest [ Thu Jun 29, 2006 11:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
This can get intresting.
1. Pirates 2: 102 million
Friday: 37 million
Saturday:38 million +3%
Sunday:27 mllion -29%

2. Superman: 24 million
Author:  trixster [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:00 am ]
Post subject: 
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $127 million

Superman will drop around 58-60% to about $25 million. The rest are too early to predict, given that we don't even know their grosses for this weekend.
Author:  Mannyisthebest [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:02 am ]
Post subject: 
Saturday..

A. Drop over 5%...
B. Drop hardly anything
C. Stable
D. Rise slightly
E. or jump a lot
Author:  Excel [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:05 am ]
Post subject: 
pirates-140 million boneeeesssssssssss
Author:  Mannyisthebest [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:05 am ]
Post subject: 
I am seeing strong legs or bigger weekdays for this. 3.0 multiplier and 10 million weekdays.

I think i will never perdict over 105 million for a movie.

I like 102 million, its very possibile and i wont be dissapointed.

It will rise as i start to feel the hype up more.
Author:  Libs [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:15 am ]
Post subject: 
Pirates with the biggest opening weekend of all time? Yes, please.

Which just makes it even more depressing that I have to wait two weeks to see it. Urghhhh. Oh well, it'll probably still be making like $40M in its third weekend so its not like I'm the only one :smile:
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:28 am ]
Post subject: 
Pirates 2 - 113 mil
Superman Returns - 18 mil

Devil Wears Prada will hold good.
Author:  BJ [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 7-9 Predictions
BJs Predictions:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 154.95m ($38,500 PTA) 4050 theaters
2. Superman Returns - 20.0m -58%
3. The Devil Wears Prada - 12.15m -40%
4. Click - 10.40m -50%
5. Cars - 8.85m -45%
6. The Lake House - 2.85m -46%
7. Nacho Libre - 2.25m -60%
8. Garfield: A Tail of Two Kiltties - 2.05m -38%
9. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - 1.50m -62%
10. The Break-Up - 1.45m -55%
11. Waist Deep - 1.10m -65%
12. X-Men: The Last Stand: 1.05m -52%

Top 12 total: 218.50m
Author:  Eventine [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 7-9 Predictions
BJ wrote:
BJs Predictions:
9. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift - 1.50m -62%


:lol: 4 straight weeks of 55% drops.
Author:  DP07 [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:34 am ]
Post subject: 
POTC 2 - 164m

SR - Down 61%

Everything else - Who cares?
Author:  DP07 [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:39 am ]
Post subject: 
I can just see it open with 225m.

Or, I can at least imagine it.
Author:  Eventine [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:41 am ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
POTC 2 - 164m


Damn it! If that happens, I'm gonna cry so loud, you'd be able to hear it. That's a good thing.
Author:  Kenspy [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:41 am ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
POTC 2 - 164m

SR - Down 61%

Everything else - Who cares?


$164 million would be very close to every single screen sold out all shows, all day, for 3 days.
Author:  Eventine [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:42 am ]
Post subject: 
How many screens are you talking about here?
Author:  Kenspy [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:47 am ]
Post subject: 
Eventine wrote:
How many screens are you talking about here?


9k?

Theater count hasn't been finalized, so screen count isn't out either.

Was just making the point that there is definitely an upper limit as to how high the gross can go.
Author:  DP07 [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:57 am ]
Post subject: 
12k screens I'd say. With 4.5 showtimes a day and 250 seats per screen (probably higher actually) you can have 13m+ tickets per day or over 80m in sales. That's without midnight (which can add 10m more). Plus, there are interlocks if demand is high enough.

SM had only 7,000 screens and did nearly 50m adjusted in a day (sat) without midnights. The limit is well above 60m a day.
Author:  Excel [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:59 am ]
Post subject: 
spiderman 1 had midnights
Author:  DP07 [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:08 am ]
Post subject: 
excel wrote:
spiderman 1 had midnights


Not on Saturday.
Author:  Excel [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:08 am ]
Post subject: 
ah hah.
Author:  Kenspy [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:10 am ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
12k screens I'd say. With 4.5 showtimes a day and 250 seats per screen (probably higher actually) you can have 13m+ tickets per day or over 80m in sales. That's without midnight (which can add 10m more). Plus, there are interlocks if demand is high enough.

SM had only 7,000 screens and did nearly 50m adjusted in a day (sat) without midnights. The limit is well above 60m a day.


Yeah the upper limit is probably well above 200m, I was just using a little hyperbole to say that there IS a realistic ceiling, and that ceiling probably is around 140-150.

Personally, my initial gut prediction is 124m. Return of the Sith would've done around 130m if it had opened on a Friday. I don't think pre-sales have quite approached that level yet, nor will there be that mega turn out at midnghts.
Author:  DP07 [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 4:13 am ]
Post subject: 
My calculations have ROTS earning 141m if it opened on a Friday. Much wider audience here though.
Author:  Tyler [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
POTC 2 - $145 million
Superman - 58-65% drop
Author:  El Maskado [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:44 pm ]
Post subject: 
1. POTC 2 115 million
2. SR 25.0 million (-60%)
Author:  Webslinger [ Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest- $123.5 million
Superman Returns- 50% drop
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