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| May 19-21 Predictions http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=19533 |
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| Author: | O [ Sat May 13, 2006 10:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | May 19-21 Predictions |
The Da Vinci Code Sony 3,700+ Over the Hedge DreamWorks 3,800 See No Evil Lions Gate 1,000+ An absolutely huge weekend. 1 Da Vinci Code $72.15 m ($19,500 average) 2 Over The Hedge $50.5 m ($13300 average) -See No Evil $3.5 m ($3500 average) I'm going a bit more subdued for Da Vinci Code, only because I know it will be more of a lengthy performer, and not a fanboy like performance. It is a pop culture phenomenon, like TPM, and Titanic. These films had enormous expectations, and had somewhat subdued openings, but incredible legs. I see the same for TDC, because the book was driven by adult readers, and I think that the film will be driven in the same way, with a lengthy, rather than huge upfront performance. Even from a $72 m opening, I see superb legs, and depending on reviews and audience reaction, a possible total to approach $350 m. But I think the main key will be reviews, and the biggest factor that ultimately will decide how it will do is the "additions" by Howard into the film, with his biggest change from the book being that he visually acts out alot of the legend that the book only mentions briefly. I think this element in particular will be what decides the film's fate. Reading about the controversial subjects is one thing, but to see it, might turn off some moviegoers. It all depends on how well Howard developed this film, and how much is additions detract or add to the book... |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat May 13, 2006 10:56 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $67.5 million Over the Hedge - $48 million See No Evil - $4.4 million |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:00 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $68 million Over the Hedge - $47 million See No Evil - $5 million |
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| Author: | haerpinot [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:00 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code $77 mill Over the Hedge $37mill (I'm sensing a Robots-like debut for this one) See No Evil $5.0 mill This will be the weekend to finally get summer started. and after MI3's disappointing opening and Poseidon's near-flopping the weekend before, the Da Vinci Code will be hailed as a sort of box office savior. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:07 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $70 million Over the Hedge - $48 million See No Evil - $4 million |
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| Author: | Outatime [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:17 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $69.0m Over the Hedge - $47.3m See No Evil - $6.2m |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:17 am ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - 77.9 Over the Hedge - 43.2 See No Evil - 2.5 Poseidon - -55% MI3 - -45% |
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| Author: | MovieDude [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:27 am ] |
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The DaVinci Code 86 million Over the Hedge 44 million See No Evil 5 million |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:29 am ] |
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MovieDude wrote: The DaVinci Code 86 million Over the Hedge 44 million See No Evil 5 million Do you think a $23,000 PTA (assuming a TC of 3750) is realistic for DVC? That seems awfully lofty for a film that primarily targets an older audience. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat May 13, 2006 11:34 am ] |
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TPOTC did $125 m in its first 5 days, which would be $130-135 m today, so I don't think based on Da Vinci Code's pop culture status that doing half of that 5day tally is completely unrealistic...even if it does appeal mostly to adults, the film is getting much mention on Leno, etc and with it being the first big event film of the summer now, other demos will be more willing to see it... |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:15 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $85.4 million Over the Hedge - $44.2 million See No Evil - $5.1 million |
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| Author: | Harry Warden [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:21 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - 90 million Over the Hedge - 40 million See No Evil - 5 million |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:22 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code-66.9 million Over The Hedge-41.3 million MI3-13.8million poseidon-12.2million |
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| Author: | Kris K [ Sat May 13, 2006 12:30 pm ] |
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Next weekend's holiday will help POSEIDON's total. Alot. It could pass $60M total, thanks to the holiday. |
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| Author: | trixster [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:18 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $65 million Over the Hedge - $46 million See No Evil - $3.5 million |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:21 pm ] |
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See No Evil 3.0 million Da Vinci Code 70 million Over the Hedge 43.0 million |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:41 pm ] |
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Magnus101 wrote: DVC - 81m OW OTH - 40m(whatever theater count it gets, I'm giving it a 10.5k average. So right now, with 3,800 theaters, it'll be 40m. But I expect final theater count to be around 4,000 so I think I'll push it above to 42m) POsiedon - 50% drop MI3 - 45% drop See no Evil - 5m totaly under predicting OTH I think 4150 theater count with a 12000-12500 theater average. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat May 13, 2006 1:43 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - 80m-100m Over the Hedge - 50m-55m See No Evil - 4m-8m |
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| Author: | TheMovieman [ Sat May 13, 2006 2:45 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $64-70m Over the Hedge - $48-54m See No Evil - $6-8m |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Sat May 13, 2006 2:58 pm ] |
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O wrote: TPOTC did $125 m in its first 5 days, which would be $130-135 m today, so I don't think based on Da Vinci Code's pop culture status that doing half of that 5day tally is completely unrealistic...even if it does appeal mostly to adults, the film is getting much mention on Leno, etc and with it being the first big event film of the summer now, other demos will be more willing to see it... To add on to that, even Farenheit 9/11 got a 25000+ pta. So 20,000 is not unrealistic for a movie like this. It has been the best selling novel for two full years, it has the biggest awareness and interest level of all the summer movies, and with Poseidon disappointing, it could get the maximum gross for the adult genre. The PG-13 rating broadens the demographics. And throw in power names like Tom Hanks and Ron Howard and you got yourself an event film. So I say 70 million is the minimum for this. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat May 13, 2006 3:01 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - 77 million Over the Hedge - 44 million See No Evil - 3 million |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat May 13, 2006 3:05 pm ] |
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I don't see anything under $70m for The Da Vince Code at this point. The buzz is simply too big for an adult-oriented thriller. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat May 13, 2006 3:23 pm ] |
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My only reason for going low $70's opening for this, is because I see its 2nd weekend approaching its first weekend (4day), as alot of people will jump on the pop culture bandwagon and see what all the fuss is about, over Memorial Day weekend. And as driven by a novel's success, films based on book's often have lengthy runs as people like to re-read the book or read the book before seeing the film. I can also see alot of families going to the movies moreso that long weekend, with the teens/young adults seeing Xmen 3, youngsters seeing Over The Hedge, and parents seeing Da Vinci Code. It won't be a record breaking opening weekend, but it will definitely be hugely talked about all week following its debut, to do outstanding the following weekend, and have great legs. $72 m opening weekend: $20-24 m dailies $68 m (4day) 2nd weekend About $160-$164 m in its first 11 days. |
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| Author: | RB652 [ Sat May 13, 2006 5:53 pm ] |
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The Da Vinci Code - $60 million Over the Hedge - $38 million See No Evil - $6 million |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat May 13, 2006 7:27 pm ] |
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TDVC - 102m Over the Hedge - 62m - Those animals will appeal to kids more then anything since Scrat was invented. The marketing including tie-ins is massive. I'll bet anything this beats Cars. BTW, TDVC will drop at least 40% for the 3 day after that, and at least 50% in the third week. The fans will rush out. |
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