World of KJ :: View topic - Rush Hour 3 Box Office Potential

Magnus101 wrote:

O wrote:

(Cough):

July 20Ã¢â‚¬â€œ22, 2001
JPIII $50,771,645 $81,385,755 (5days)
AS $30,181,877

July 27Ã¢â‚¬â€œ29
POTA$68,532,960

August 3Ã¢â‚¬â€œ5, 2001
RH2 $67,408,222
TPD $22,862,269

August 10-12, 2001
AP2 $45,117,985

Rush Hour 2 was able to pull a $67 m opening following a $68 m opening the week before. I think it has a very strong fanbase who will see it even w/ AVSP2 and TBS3 out in theaters as well.

That 4 week strech in August is arugably one of the greatest BO strech ever. Had JP3 opened on a Friday, it would have grossed over 60m on that weekend. That would be 3 straight 60m+ openers, followed by an R-rated 45m+ opener. Which at the time was amazing considring that Planet of the Apes was the 2nd highest OW ever, Rush Hour 2 the 4th, & JP3 would have been the 6th had it been releaesed on a Friday. AND American Pie 2 was the 2nd highest OW for an R-rated movie. That was a special time at the BO that I don't think will happend again. And the main reason why I don't think it will happend again in this sitation is because in 2001, you had a crowded May and then a crowded mid-July/August. In 2007, you have a VERY crowded May, a crowded June, a VERY crowded July, and a pretty crowded August. There is no really break and people aren't going to constantlly go to the movies. By the time August comes, people are going to be exhausted from their wallets from all these movies.

UNLESS the trailers indicate that it will be funnier than the originals(not as funny because if it looks as funny that won't help it as much), then will most likley not cross Rush Hour 2 total.

It is not happening again.

Not too mention that Rush Hour 2 had much more demand than Rush Hour 3. Rush Hour 3 had high demand 2-3 years ago but too much time has past. There is just no

Author:	O [ Thu May 04, 2006 9:48 pm ]
Post subject:	Rush Hour 3 Box Office Potential
I searched RH3, and got 2000 + matches on the forum, so I'm just starting a new thread as I think it deserves one. Rush Hour 3 was just greenlit, and is set for Aug 10, 2007. Rush Hour 1: $33 m opening weekend $141.2 m/$244.4 m worldwide, $33 m budget, and was the 7th biggest film of 1998, and held the Sept weekend record for 4 years. Opened in 2,638 - $12,510 average. Rush Hour 2: $226 m/$347 m worldwide, $90 m budget, $67,408,222 opening weekend (3,118 theaters, $21,619 average). For the year it was 5th, and for the summer and non Nov/Dec months it was 2nd, behind only Shrek 1. It had the 4th biggest opening of all time when it opened, and remains the 2nd oldest monthly record holder (August), which it looks to hold until next year. Rush Hour 3 opens Aug 10th, but I'm guessing there will be quite a bit of shuffling as Aug 2007 is VERY packed and strong at this point: This is the month so far: AUGUST 2007 Aug 3: The Bourne Ultimatum Underdog (Family Comedy - Buena Vista Wide) Aug 10: Alien vs. Predator 2 Nancy Drew (Family Adventure) Rush Hour 3 Aug 17 Disturbia (Drama / Thriller Shia Labeouf, Carrie-Anne Moss) Knocked Up (Romantic Comedy Katherine Heigl, Paul Rudd) Just looking at this schedule, there's $60 m potential from Bourne 3, and Rush Hour 3, along with possible $200 m + totals. Underdog looks like it could make some decent change. Alien Vs Predator should do $35 m +, and finish over $75 m, Nancy Drew looks to have a Freaky Friday/Princess Diaries like run (could do $100 m), while Knocked Up could do solid business, with a release date similar to 40YOV. The month could potentially produce 2 $200 m films, and 3 or 4 $100 m films, along with multiple openings over $30 m, and 2 over $60 m. It is very in line with Aug 2001's box office, which was very, very strong. RH2 also had the 2nd best per theater average out of the top 10 openers of that year, behind only HP1. I think Rush Hour 3 will hurt AVSP much more than it will hurt RH3. Rush Hour 2 was 3 years after its predecessor, while 6 years have passed this time. However, the franchise has been very well received, and had a 3.36 multiplier, which is VERY good considering it was the 4th biggest opening ever at the time. Also, I think Bourne and RH3 should be able to co-exist and both do well, as Planet of the Apes and RH2 did 5 years ago. Adjusted for inflation (I'll assume a 3% ticket price increase for the year 2006 and 2007), RH3 would adjust next year from a ticket price of $6.79 to: $80.85 m/$271.3 m I think RH3 should be able to top $75 m, and finish with close to $230-240 m or so. How do you see RH3 doing next year?

Author:	El Maskado [ Thu May 04, 2006 10:01 pm ]
Post subject:
Had they made RH3, 2 years ago it would of probably made more than 200 million. Flash forward to 2007 and it would be 6 years since its release, its never quite a good idea to make a sequel that long of a period time. Most likely I see it now topping off at 175 million

Author:	zingy [ Thu May 04, 2006 10:23 pm ]
Post subject:
The series should follow Austin Power's pattern, where the first one grossed a decent amount (though Rush Hour did very well), the sequel pulled in almost twice as much (in Austin Power's case, like quadruple), and the third grossed a little higher. 75/230.

Author:	trixster [ Thu May 04, 2006 10:27 pm ]
Post subject:
This won't do that well. It's been too long since the last one, and neither Chan nor Tucker are nearly as popular anymore. I'd say around 55/160.

Author:	O [ Thu May 04, 2006 10:44 pm ]
Post subject:
(Cough): July 20Ã¢â‚¬â€œ22, 2001 JPIII $50,771,645 $81,385,755 (5days) AS $30,181,877 July 27Ã¢â‚¬â€œ29 POTA$68,532,960 August 3Ã¢â‚¬â€œ5, 2001 RH2 $67,408,222 TPD $22,862,269 August 10-12, 2001 AP2 $45,117,985 Rush Hour 2 was able to pull a $67 m opening following a $68 m opening the week before. I think it has a very strong fanbase who will see it even w/ AVSP2 and TBS3 out in theaters as well.

World of KJ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/

Rush Hour 3 Box Office Potential http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=19200	Page 1 of 4

Author:	Excel [ Thu May 04, 2006 11:00 pm ]
Post subject:
mi3 number

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Fri May 05, 2006 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:
M:I-3 should be a good indicator for how it will do.

Author:	BJ [ Fri May 05, 2006 3:15 pm ]
Post subject:
Magnus101 wrote: O wrote: (Cough): July 20Ã¢â‚¬â€œ22, 2001 JPIII $50,771,645 $81,385,755 (5days) AS $30,181,877 July 27Ã¢â‚¬â€œ29 POTA$68,532,960 August 3Ã¢â‚¬â€œ5, 2001 RH2 $67,408,222 TPD $22,862,269 August 10-12, 2001 AP2 $45,117,985 Rush Hour 2 was able to pull a $67 m opening following a $68 m opening the week before. I think it has a very strong fanbase who will see it even w/ AVSP2 and TBS3 out in theaters as well. That 4 week strech in August is arugably one of the greatest BO strech ever. Had JP3 opened on a Friday, it would have grossed over 60m on that weekend. That would be 3 straight 60m+ openers, followed by an R-rated 45m+ opener. Which at the time was amazing considring that Planet of the Apes was the 2nd highest OW ever, Rush Hour 2 the 4th, & JP3 would have been the 6th had it been releaesed on a Friday. AND American Pie 2 was the 2nd highest OW for an R-rated movie. That was a special time at the BO that I don't think will happend again. And the main reason why I don't think it will happend again in this sitation is because in 2001, you had a crowded May and then a crowded mid-July/August. In 2007, you have a VERY crowded May, a crowded June, a VERY crowded July, and a pretty crowded August. There is no really break and people aren't going to constantlly go to the movies. By the time August comes, people are going to be exhausted from their wallets from all these movies. UNLESS the trailers indicate that it will be funnier than the originals(not as funny because if it looks as funny that won't help it as much), then will most likley not cross Rush Hour 2 total. It is not happening again. Not too mention that Rush Hour 2 had much more demand than Rush Hour 3. Rush Hour 3 had high demand 2-3 years ago but too much time has past. There is just no BS, if its happend once it can happen again.

Author:	Jonathan [ Sat May 06, 2006 11:36 am ]
Post subject:
DON'T WAIT 6 YEARS FOR THE SECOND SEQUEL. EVER. Opening: 38.9 Total: 108.5 (2.79)

Author:	Excel [ Sat May 06, 2006 11:39 am ]
Post subject:
well...maybe i was wrong(lol) cauyse comedies waiting a while seem to have better luck thre action movies...and thisis a mix. illsay 50/175.but do people even know who chris tuckers-he hasnt made amovie since rush hour 2 in 2001.

Author:	El Maskado [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:12 pm ]
Post subject:
MI3 definately proves the point about dont wait 6 years for a sequel unless you have an obsessive extablished following like SW,comic book movies, Star Trek. Beverly Hills Cop 3, Zorro Returns, Crocadile Dundee and Godfather 3 all proved that I dont think the percent in gross drop will be that extreme since the franchise doesnt suffer from the publics hate for a lead actor in a role but if it was made two years ago, it would of at least matched the gross

Author:	O [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:18 pm ]
Post subject:
Oompa Loompa Midget Man wrote: MI3 definately proves the point about dont wait 6 years for a sequel unless you have an obsessive extablished following like SW,comic book movies, Star Trek. Beverly Hills Cop 3, Zorro Returns, Crocadile Dundee and Godfather 3 all proved that I dont think the percent in gross drop will be that extreme since the franchise doesnt suffer from the publics hate for a lead actor in a role but if it was made two years ago, it would of at least matched the gross Well I'd say MI3 is more a point of only well received films should receive sequels, and stars antics off of the screen can effect even the biggest stars...

Author:	MadGez [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:
Although I think Rush Hour will do well - this type of actioner hasnt done so well since 2003 with Bad Boys and SWAT. I think the comedic elements will help it though. $170-$190m would be the cap. But yes - waiting so long for a sequel is rarely good.

Author:	nghtvsn [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:
I'm still excited to see RH3. Just as much as I was excited to see MI3 but apparently I'm in the minority when it came to that considering MI3's opening #.

Author:	Thegun [ Sun May 07, 2006 12:00 am ]
Post subject:
Come on people, Anyone remember Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade coming out 5 years after the last, How about the Terminator films or the alien films. Lethal Weapon 4, How bout James Bond returning after 6 years after being delcared dead. Its not the time in between, its the film beforehand.

Author:	jb007 [ Sun May 07, 2006 2:26 am ]
Post subject:
Thegun wrote: Come on people, Anyone remember Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade coming out 5 years after the last, How about the Terminator films or the alien films. Lethal Weapon 4, How bout James Bond returning after 6 years after being delcared dead. Its not the time in between, its the film beforehand. According to your theory The Last Crusade would have done a lot worse, since The Temple of Doom is widely considered inferior compared to the all-time classics Raiders and The Last Crusade. The Last Crusade was so damn good, neither the fact it came 5 years after The Temple of Doom nor that Temple of Doom was inferior compared to Raiders of the Lost Ark did seem to matter.

Page 1 of 4	All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/

Author:	MadGez [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:24 pm ]
Post subject:
nghtvsn wrote: I'm still excited to see RH3. Just as much as I was excited to see MI3 but apparently I'm in the minority when it came to that considering MI3's opening #. Im the same. Im excited about both. Shame MI3 didnt do as well as expected.

Author:	Rev [ Sat May 06, 2006 12:27 pm ]
Post subject:
20/75m for now. depends on the trailer and release date.

Author:	zingy [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:19 pm ]
Post subject:
Based on Mission: Impossible III's performance this weekend, I'm pretty sure that this will fall short of the sequel. I'd say around $150-170 million total.

Author:	Thegun [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:33 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Based on Mission: Impossible III's performance this weekend, I'm pretty sure that this will fall short of the sequel. I'd say around $150-170 million total. Is everyone crazy all of a sudden. Like is Mi3 the first sequel to ever be released over 5 years after the last. Where as Mi3 was majority disliked, Rush Hour 2 was considered just as funny if not funnier. Their combination is definately one of the best of recent years. Chris Tucker has not made a film since Rush Hour 2, so a lot of urban audiences will love to see him back. six years is not a long time. If it looks as good as the others, and no reason that a trailer can't. They have a great writer, the director is back, and the more laughs and action to be sure. It will easily open to what the 2nd did and probably still gross the same. Rush Hour is not just a comedy series, its got a great buddy cop and action too. Its basically our generations Lethal Weapons, though less vulgar. Get a grip with the Mi3 sequel thing, its been one day.

Author:	Thegun [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:
Also remember, Rush Hour 2 was the highest opening Comedy when it was released, only to be slightly beaten by Austin Powers 3. Rush Hour is actually quite the popular franchise because it covers many different demographics.

Author:	MadGez [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:
Yeah the MI3 effect wont be as big for RH3 - it can still do a good amount. Probably more than anything - blocbuster fatigue in summer 07 may hurt it more than anything.

Author:	El Maskado [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:37 pm ]
Post subject:
Yeah I do agree somewhat since the RH movies arent really the maschismo action flicks that have been bombing.Comedy action normally does well but then again its coming out 6 years after the last sequel which isnt good, Beverly Hills Cop was also an action comedy and 3 came out 6 years after BC2

Author:	zingy [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:
It's that big gap between the second and third film, though. M:I-3 had a six year gap, and Rush Hour 3 will as well. Plus, with the competition, outgrossing the sequel might not be in the cards. I'm sure it'll still do really well, though.

Author:	MadGez [ Sat May 06, 2006 10:49 pm ]
Post subject:
Yes, I mean anything over $150m would still be great considering the circumstances - big competition, six year diff etc. Beverly Hills Cop was a disaster when you consider it only made $50m even though the first was one of the top 10 films of all time and the sequel had a then (when it was released) record opening to its name.