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The Summer 2006 Vs. 2005 Tracking Thread
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Author:  Box [ Sun Apr 30, 2006 11:49 pm ]
Post subject:  The Summer 2006 Vs. 2005 Tracking Thread
Hi :happy:


This is basically meant to be about the two summer as a whole, and how they stack up against each other. I'll add other years in the coming days, before the summer 2006 season begins in earnest.


Basically, three things will be tracked:


1) The Total Gross of all films released during the May-August period (so, May-Aug releases + post-August gross from those films, exluding holdovers from films released before May 2006)

2)The Total Gross of all films playing during the May-August period (so, May-Aug releases + holdovers)

3) The Total Gross of all films released during the May-August period within the May-August period (so, May-Aug releases and their gross from May to August only)

For 2005, we have the following:

1) 2005 Total Gross (Summer Releases Total): $3,516,637,633

1 Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith $380,270,577 10.81% 10.81%
2 War of the Worlds $234,280,354 6.66% 17.48%
3 Wedding Crashers $209,255,921 5.95% 23.43%
4 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory $206,459,076 5.87% 29.30%
5 Batman Begins $205,343,774 5.84% 35.14%
6 Madagascar $193,595,521 5.51% 40.64%
7 Mr. & Mrs. Smith $186,336,279 5.30% 45.94%
8 The Longest Yard $158,119,460 4.50% 50.44%
9 Fantastic Four $154,696,080 4.40% 54.84%
10 The 40-Year-Old Virgin $109,449,237 3.11% 57.95%
11 Monster-in-Law $82,931,301 2.36% 60.31%
12 The Dukes of Hazzard $80,270,227 2.28% 62.59%
13 March of the Penguins $77,437,223 2.20% 64.79%
14 Four Brothers $74,494,381 2.12% 66.91%
15 Herbie: Fully Loaded $66,023,816 1.88% 68.79%
16 Sky High $63,946,815 1.82% 70.60%
17 Bewitched $63,313,159 1.80% 72.41%
18 Cinderella Man $61,649,911 1.75% 74.16%
19 Red Eye $57,891,803 1.65% 75.80%
20 Crash $54,580,300 1.55% 77.36%


2) 2005 Total Gross (Summer Releases + Holdovers): $3,448,979,075

1 Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith $379,474,503 11.00% 11.00%
2 War of the Worlds $232,002,113 6.73% 17.73%
3 Batman Begins $203,162,209 5.89% 23.62%
4 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory $198,724,283 5.76% 29.38%
5 Madagascar $190,976,819 5.54% 34.92%
6 Wedding Crashers $189,457,000 5.49% 40.41%
7 Mr. & Mrs. Smith $184,111,169 5.34% 45.75%
8 The Longest Yard $157,631,307 4.57% 50.32%
9 Fantastic Four $151,969,230 4.41% 54.73%
10 Monster-in-Law $82,900,254 2.40% 57.13%
11 The Dukes of Hazzard $75,310,334 2.18% 59.31%
12 Herbie: Fully Loaded $64,745,517 1.88% 61.19%
13 Bewitched $62,329,704 1.81% 63.00%
14 Cinderella Man $61,494,255 1.78% 64.78%
15 March of the Penguins $57,586,618 1.67% 66.45%
16 Four Brothers $57,459,491 1.67% 68.12%
17 Sky High $56,406,404 1.64% 69.75%
18 The 40-Year-Old Virgin $53,946,530 1.56% 71.32%
19 Crash $53,168,896 1.54% 72.86%
20 Kicking and Screaming $52,842,724 1.53% 74.39%

3) 2005 Total Gross (Summer Releases Quarterly): $3,245,575,384

1 Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith $379,474,503 11.69% 11.69%
2 War of the Worlds $232,002,113 7.15% 18.84%
3 Batman Begins $203,162,209 6.26% 25.10%
4 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory $198,724,283 6.12% 31.22%
5 Madagascar $190,976,819 5.88% 37.11%
6 Wedding Crashers $189,457,000 5.84% 42.94%
7 Mr. & Mrs. Smith $184,111,169 5.67% 48.62%
8 The Longest Yard $157,631,307 4.86% 53.47%
9 Fantastic Four $151,969,230 4.68% 58.16%
10 Monster-in-Law $82,900,254 2.55% 60.71%
11 The Dukes of Hazzard $75,310,334 2.32% 63.03%
12 Herbie: Fully Loaded $64,745,517 1.99% 65.03%
13 Bewitched $62,329,704 1.92% 66.95%
14 Cinderella Man $61,494,255 1.89% 68.84%
15 March of the Penguins $57,586,618 1.77% 70.62%
16 Four Brothers $57,459,491 1.77% 72.39%
17 Sky High $56,406,404 1.74% 74.12%
18 The 40-Year-Old Virgin $53,946,530 1.66% 75.79%
19 Crash $53,168,896 1.64% 77.42%
20 Kicking and Screaming $52,842,724 1.63% 79.05%


The percentages, btw, refer to the share out of the total, the first column the share of the total of each film, and the second, the cummulative share. You can see that SW3 accounts for more than a tenth of the total gross, while the top 20 account for basically 3/4th to 4/5th of the total grosses, meaning that the top blockbusters will make a huge difference.

However, I don't think we should discount the smaller films. Crash had great legs that added quite a bit to the total, and need we say anything about The Wedding Crashers and its legs?


So, any opinions about it at this stage? I'll definitely add others years as soon as possible, because I personall think this summer will beat last year's, but might have a harder time competing with the summers of 2004, 2003, and 2002, which were bigger (adjusted for inflation, 2002 would win, I'm confident).
Author:  BJ [ Mon May 01, 2006 1:40 am ]
Post subject: 
what the, this should be summer 03 adjusted, vs. Summer 06 :shades: :biggrin:
Author:  Raffiki [ Mon May 01, 2006 2:18 am ]
Post subject: 
The first two weeks of Summer 06 should easily pass those of Summer 05 by at least $125 million
Author:  zingy [ Mon May 01, 2006 6:27 am ]
Post subject: 
In terms of total gross for "Summer Releases Total" (#1), I wouldn't be shocked if this summer actually became the biggest summer ever. It's just a matter of having one or two additional big hits, and I think there is more potential.

2005's summer releases grossed $3.516 billion combined. The biggest summer ever was 2004, where all summer releases grossed $3.784 billion combined.

I think it's achievable, definitely.
Author:  xiayun [ Mon May 01, 2006 1:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cool, the return of Box' all mighty number charts.
Author:  BJ [ Mon May 01, 2006 1:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Zingaling wrote:
In terms of total gross for "Summer Releases Total" (#1), I wouldn't be shocked if this summer actually became the biggest summer ever. It's just a matter of having one or two additional big hits, and I think there is more potential.

2005's summer releases grossed $3.516 billion combined. The biggest summer ever was 2004, where all summer releases grossed $3.784 billion combined.

I think it's achievable, definitely.


summer 04 is not the biggest, it didnt sell the most tickets :tongue: 03 Zing 03 :biggrin:
Author:  BJ [ Mon May 01, 2006 1:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Cool, the return of Box' all mighty number charts.


indeed, its a day for joy! :cheer:
Author:  Rev [ Mon May 01, 2006 1:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Raffiki wrote:
The first two weeks of Summer 06 should easily pass those of Summer 05 by at least $125 million


M:I:3 & POS alone will gross $180-$200m in those two weeks.
Author:  zingy [ Mon May 01, 2006 3:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm referring to the money earned.
Author:  Box [ Mon May 01, 2006 7:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
Can anyone tell me what the estimated ticket price for 2006 is? I know BOM has it at $6.4, but I doubt it will remain flat with 2005.
Author:  zingy [ Mon May 01, 2006 7:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Isn't that released at the end of each year?
Author:  Box [ Mon May 01, 2006 8:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yes, but there's an estimate given for each year before one can safely determine what it was by divided total grosses by total admissions.

It's obvious that BOM is predicting overall ticket averages to remain flat for 2006, but that's awful, because I basically have nothing to adjust :tongue:
Author:  BJ [ Tue May 02, 2006 3:02 am ]
Post subject: 
bump it up to $6.80-$6.85, I expect a massive increase this year, coupled with it being the most mammoth year of all time in terms of tickets sold :happy:
Author:  O [ Tue May 02, 2006 10:49 am ]
Post subject: 
Box wrote:
Yes, but there's an estimate given for each year before one can safely determine what it was by divided total grosses by total admissions.

It's obvious that BOM is predicting overall ticket averages to remain flat for 2006, but that's awful, because I basically have nothing to adjust :tongue:


I have been using $6.592 all year so far, 3% higher than 2005.
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