W/ MI3 opening, I thought it would be a good idea to set some benchmarks for the summer on a 5 point scale. After a film opens, we have alot of backpeddling, with people saying that $200 m is outstanding for a film, when 2 months earlier they may have said it would be a disappointing gross, so I thought lets get it all on the record!
o's Benchmark Scale
5 Huge break out film of the summer to reach this level, outpacing all even optimistic expectations
4 Pleasant Surprise, not completely unrealistic going into the summer, but a solid success, and on the higher end of expectations.
3 Neither success or disappointment, but not really much to talk about based on its performance, as it met its average expectations but couldn't be deemed overly successful or disappointing).
2 Disappointment, but could have been worse (sort of King Kong like territory w/ some disappointment based on expectations)
1 Absolute mess and disappointment of huge proportions (Huge Disappointment)
The way this would work is, for the summer 2006 films (one can do all films, or just the big, big players), what box office performance for the film would be deemed appropriate for the 5 point benchmark scale.
For example, X3
X3
5 $260 m +
4 $216 m-260 m
3 $191 m-215 m
2 $141 m-190 m
1 Under $140 m
5 is huge break out potential, while 1 is huge disappointment levels. 3 is generally where you'd expect the film on average to go (ex. for X3, I'd say $200 m is where I'd see it as neither a disappointment or big success, as the slight dip from X2 would refrain me from putting it at a higher level).
This is an example of the benchmark system. Whoever is interested in doing some, feel free to, and we can compile levels to see where the average 5 levels benchmarks are for a film's success. If people want it simple, try just these biggies or whichever ones you want:
Superman
POTC 2
Cars
Da Vinci Code
MI3
Over The Hedge
X3
I'm going to incorporate other indicators as well, such as HSX blockbuster warrants prices, etc.
To help anyone having trouble with this, here's how I'd classify some of how 2005's film's did (of course opinions vary):
4 SW Ep 3
4 Narnia
4 HP4
3 WOTW
2 Kong
5 Wedding Crashers
4 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
3 Batman Begins
3 Madagascar
4 Mr and Mrs Smith
2 Chicken Little
2 Robots
5 March of the Penguins (best example of this level)
2 Ring 2
1 Kingdom of Heaven ($130 m budget, doesn't pass $50 m)
1 The Island
1 Stealth
1 xxx2 (best example of this level)
