Place your bets on POTC2. As I'm looking around the forum it seems a good majority of you thinks that Pirates2 will win the summer BO race with final grosses between 300 and 400mil. I gotta say I'm disagreeing with you. Although I found the first film enjoyable I'm not so HYPED on seeing this one. I'm not going to be running out opening weekend. Heck, I'll probably wait for the dvd as I did the first time. That being said I still think this film will do very well, but follow along the lines of HP and the CoS. It will open with around 70-85mil and finish with between 265-285mil....

i was getting worried people would start to make more threads about the same topic, good thing i was wrong...

Eh... I'll get back to you. I voted $300-330m, simply because there's a pretty high chance that the film won't be that good since it shot with an uncomplete script, but if it's good, it'll knock the socks off the first film and probably perform in a similar fashion to Revenge of the Sith.

Oh, tricky. I need to here more buzz. Too bad Richards isn't on cast or it would be a sure thing. Now its close, and its hands down between Pirates and Da Vinci for top grosser of the year.

this film is in need of a 500m+ club

270-300mil,, It pulls a Potter. A great flick but the interest is waning

I'm leaning to 400+ lately on this.

Go for it. I'd join, and there are a handful of other people here who would as well.

I voted for it being good, but NOT that good and movies like this in the sequel stage are hard to outdo the freshness of the original and I can't imagine this being THAT good..

I'm sure it'll outgross the original, but after that, I don't know. It might not pass $325 million total.

yeah it will pass the original, but not by much...

Look at Spider Man and Spider Man 2. Although Spider Man 2 was better it grossed less. I think that PotC2 will barely gross more than PotC because of the sequel factor but be close because of the the fact that PotC wasn't a big of a phenomena as Spider Man. As for 500+, it won't happen no matter how good it is.

Superman's gonna knock the wind out of this one before it's even raised its fists. It'll also be massively frontloaded.

$290 million.

Actually, that rumor has been debunked by Terry Rossio here:

http://www.wordplayer.com/forums/movies ... read=82954
(his post is the first reply on that page)

Now granted he's talking about PotC3, but he does mention PotC2 and lists it among some of his and Ted's other films as having a script when shooting the film.

I voted for 330m+.

Even if Keith Richards isn't in the movie, he will be in the third one (with the possibility of other famous rock stars as well ). And for someone to understand what's going on in PotC3, they're gonna have to see PotC2, believe me.

Joy

Hey,

There's no option for UNDER 200 million!

Over.
Like most people on this site and BOM seem to say that it will pass the original.

I'm looking at the increase in sequels and first of all out of the thousands of films made only a handful actually had an increase with the second film. Secondly there has never been a series in which the first film made over 200mil and the second made more (let alone 300mil+ first film).

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/sequel.htm

Ok,,this link isn't updated. I can think of one franchise off the top of my head that increased every film,,LOTR. That's it. No Star Wars, Spider man or Potter. Is it sensible to be putting PC2 in the league of LOTR??? I mean really,,,its not THAT popular.

It did wonderful the first time and I'm sure its going to do fabulous this time around but I just dont see how it would ever top the first.

well see. this film will either go 100/350 if its liked, or 200/275 if word of mouth isnt good. superman 40 million + second will keep this from breaking the record, ive decided. plus star wars 1, spiderman all made 400 million...and im sorry but as bad as it sounds, its much easier to make 300 million then it is 400 million. when a film grosses 400 million, its very hard for a sequel to make that back just because requires extraordinary legs and a monsterous-90 million + opening. pirates 1got 300 million-a huge take-but not nearly big enough for peopel to say "thats alot of money, i dunno if pirates 2 can make it there" cause is reality piates 2 will have 300 million with 20-25 days of release. episode 3 got it 300 million in 17 days.
so basicaly ill say the chances of pirates not passing the original are extremely unlikely because honestly, for a big huge film like this, 300 million really isnt that much money. for films like this or star wars or spiderman, saying 300 million is too much is just absurd, cause for these films no gross is too much. the question just is by how much. it could 5 million or it could 75 million.

Ok,,yes, I forgot about Shrek 1 and 2 but that movie had a freak increase and final. That lightning wont strike twice with PC2. There's more against PC2 then there is for it to crack 300mil +.

whats against it? its opening weekend alone should gaurentee 300 million.

The past...... I guess AOTC should have made 500mil. Or SM2 should have pulled in a cool 450mil. The Lost World with its better effect and more action could have done 400mil. LOTR has been the only exception to the rule.

Its gonna have a larger opening weekend then the first by far thats a given but it will never have the legs.

Hey,,I'm not saying it wont happen, its just unlikely. Only one time a film made over 300mil out of the gate and the second made more. At least to me, that really says something. If PC2 were to be the first big release in May and had a good 2 weeks with no other tentpole pics coming out, I'd say yes it very well could crack the first ones take.
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1 Titanic Par. $600,788,188 1997
2 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007 1977^
3 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554 1982^
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,301 1999
6 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
7 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577 2005
8 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $377,027,325 2003
9 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825 2004
10 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930 2004^
11 Jurassic Park Uni. $357,067,947 1993
12 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $341,786,758 2002^
13 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 2003
14 Forrest Gump Par. $329,694,499 1994
15 The Lion King BV $328,541,776 1994^
16 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 2001
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $314,776,170 2001^
18 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $310,676,740 2002^
19 Return of the Jedi Fox $309,306,177 1983^
20 Independence Day Fox $306,169,268 1996
21 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $305,413,918


Only 21 films cracked 300mil,,, out of those only one sequel out did the first.

Spiderman, Harry Potter, and Star Wars PT are not good comparisons because they all had established fanbases before the original movie came out. That results in a much more frontloaded first film and very little room for fanbase growth between the original and the sequel.

The Matrix and Shrek were both original movies, well-loved, great legs at the BO and good DVD sales. The only difference between them and Pirates is limited appeal from being rated R and PG. As a PG-13 movie Pirates has near unlimited demographic appeal and the only thing that might stop it from a matrix/shrek increase is SR.

Shrek 2 - Highest OW and 2nd highest gross for a PG
Matrix 2 - Highest OW and 2nd highest gross for an R

Pirates 2 - same only for PG-13?

Spiderman, Harry Potter, and Star Wars PT are not good comparisons because they all had established fanbases before the original movie came out. That results in a much more frontloaded first film and very little room for fanbase growth between the original and the sequel.

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Ok, by that logic they all should have done better....
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The Matrix and Shrek were both original movies, well-loved, great legs at the BO and good DVD sales. The only difference between them and Pirates is limited appeal from being rated R and PG. As a PG-13 movie Pirates has near unlimited demographic appeal and the only thing that might stop it from a matrix/shrek increase is SR.

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Both of those films didnt open to over 300mil (first film). I think going with what you're saying, a PG rating would be better for the film then a PG13. You just cut out most of those kids under 10 that saw Shrek 2. Images of skeletons and dead people will frighten children.

You know how many under-10 kids I saw at PotC1? Yeah, those kids are still gonna be there this time around and will actually be more of the PG-13 age. And in addition, I'm sure there'll be plenty more under-10 kids that will be there as well. I know of 5-year-olds who went to see PotC1 without any problems at all.

A PG for PotC2 would do it in; it'd be too kosher. An R for PotC2 would be way too extreme for a Disney-branded movie. PG-13 gives it just the right amount of action to keep both adults and kids interested.

And you'd be surprised how many LOTR fans... and HP fans... and SW fans are also PotC fans. There's quite a bit of cross-over going on between the fandoms, and that means a lot of the audience for the major movies like LOTR, HP, and SW are also gonna be there to fuel PotC.

Joy