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| David Poland Predicts the Summer Box Office Totals http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18571 |
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| Author: | Johnny Dollar [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | David Poland Predicts the Summer Box Office Totals |
http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists ... chart.html My only comment is: he's nuts if he thinks DaVinci tops off at $135 million. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:56 pm ] |
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He's predicting X-Men: The Last Stand to gross $3 million more than the original did... |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:57 pm ] |
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| Author: | MGKC [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:01 pm ] |
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M:I:3 is way too high. And then Monster House is even worse. That won't top $90 million. Barnyard won't only gross $18 million. It can break $40 million. No way Clerks II goes that high either. The rest are actually pretty reasonable. |
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| Author: | getluv [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:01 pm ] |
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The guy is obviously a dickhead who predicts with his penis. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:04 pm ] |
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1 Dis Pirates of the Caribbean II July7 $347m A reasonable prediction, but I'll say this can get past $400 m. 2 WB Superman June 30 $238m Superman could do this total. 3 Par Mission: Impossible 3 May 5 $220m MI3 will NOT get top 3 for the summer. Its bad enough when someone times their baby's birth to a film's release.... 4 Dis Cars June 9 $210m A bit higher than this. 5 Sony Click June 23 $185m The Longest Yard needed Chris Rock to get as high as it did. I see a $135-145 m total. 6 Fox X-Men: The Last Stand May 26 $160m Way to low. This could push $250 m. 7 Sony Monster House July 21 $143m Way way too high, especially w/ Barnyard opening the following weekend. 8 DWA Over The Hedge May 19 $140m This'll be a Madagascar clone, and do $175-200 m. 9 Sony The DiVinci Code June 3 $135m Could do $135 m in its first 10 days. 10 WB Poseidon May 12 $120m Too high. I see this massively disappointing. 12 WB Lady in the Water July 21 $105m With The Village having a pitiful 2.25 multiplier, this one could do much less than this total, not approach the Village total. 18 U Fast & The Furious 3 June 16 $65m Could double this total. 24 NL Snakes On A Plane Aug 18 $42m No kidding here, this could approach this total opening weekend ($35-40 m). 33 Fox The Devil Wears Prada June 30 $23m This could also do $23 m opening weekend. 38 Par Barnyard July 28 $18m This could do $18 m opening weekend. |
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| Author: | Snrub [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:10 pm ] |
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With possibly the exception of X-Men (it could, and probably will, finish below $200 million, but $160 seems a bit low considering it's almost guaranteed an opening above $70 million), these all seem quite reasonable. He's clearly given it a bit of thought. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:13 pm ] |
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$20M total for The Lake House? I know Sandra Bullock and Keanu Reeves have lost some of their starpower over the years, but that's a rather ridiculous prediction. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:14 pm ] |
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Snrub wrote: With possibly the exception of X-Men (it could, and probably will, finish below $200 million, but $160 seems a bit low considering it's almost guaranteed an opening above $70 million), these all seem quite reasonable. He's clearly given it a bit of thought. Da Vinci Code's $135 m is not reasonable. It's easily one of the big 3 of the summer. It has been more talked about than all of the other summer films thus far. There is no film that has even come close thus far to approach it in terms of publicity and coverage, and it hasn't even really started its big campaign yet. |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:20 pm ] |
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David Poland predicts box office? That's a definite oxymoron. I still laugh whenever thinking about his comment last year on justifying King Kong's opening Wednesday. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:28 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: David Poland predicts box office? That's a definite oxymoron. I still laugh whenever thinking about his comment last year on justifying King Kong's opening Wednesday. Which was? (I don't recall it). |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:38 pm ] |
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O wrote: xiayun wrote: David Poland predicts box office? That's a definite oxymoron. I still laugh whenever thinking about his comment last year on justifying King Kong's opening Wednesday. Which was? (I don't recall it). On the following Thursday after King Kong opened, He claimed there wasn't much to worry because King Kong's opening Wednesday is better than Star Wars III's first Wednesday (and one other film as well), conveniently ignoring the fact that Sith opened on a Thursday, so its first Wednesday is its 7th day of release. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:41 pm ] |
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xiayun wrote: O wrote: xiayun wrote: David Poland predicts box office? That's a definite oxymoron. I still laugh whenever thinking about his comment last year on justifying King Kong's opening Wednesday. Which was? (I don't recall it). On the following Thursday after King Kong opened, He claimed there wasn't much to worry because King Kong's opening Wednesday is better than Star Wars III's first Wednesday (and one other film as well), conveniently ignoring the fact that Sith opened on a Thursday, so its first Wednesday is its 7th day of release. 
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| Author: | xiayun [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:43 pm ] |
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Oh, yeah, the other movie he compared to was Spider-Man, and it's true that King Kong's opening did beat SM's first Wednesday as well. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:44 pm ] |
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is this a joke? |
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| Author: | Erendis [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 2:00 pm ] |
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This is pretty funny. Pirates 2 runs away with it, and then the next movie is more than $100M down! How does this compare to last summer? Are we still in a box office slump? I agree with him on Pirates 2. I think he's low on Cars. I think he's high on MI3. Other than that, meh who cares. Looks like a lousy summer. |
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| Author: | Snrub [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 2:47 pm ] |
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O wrote: Snrub wrote: With possibly the exception of X-Men (it could, and probably will, finish below $200 million, but $160 seems a bit low considering it's almost guaranteed an opening above $70 million), these all seem quite reasonable. He's clearly given it a bit of thought. Da Vinci Code's $135 m is not reasonable. It's easily one of the big 3 of the summer. It has been more talked about than all of the other summer films thus far. There is no film that has even come close thus far to approach it in terms of publicity and coverage, and it hasn't even really started its big campaign yet. I'm not really feeling the da vinci code yet... It certainly has the potential to be huge, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it do as low as $135 million. |
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| Author: | dolcevita [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 2:57 pm ] |
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One and Two are going to be Pirates II and Da Vinci. They are going to gross miles more than second runner up. I think everyone and their mom is underestimating Apocalypto. Gibson hasn't directed a sub-200 million dollar in, like, decades. |
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| Author: | Snrub [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 3:14 pm ] |
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dolcevita wrote: One and Two are going to be Pirates II and Da Vinci. They are going to gross miles more than second runner up. I think everyone and their mom is underestimating Apocalypto. Gibson hasn't directed a sub-200 million dollar in, like, decades. Well, technically he's only directed one $200 million+ movie. His other two didn't even reach $100 million. And The Passion of the Christ's box office had very little to do with Gibson's directing prowess. I can't see Apocalypto making more than $40 million. Hell, $30 million would be a push. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 3:22 pm ] |
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David Poland is in the Superman under 250 million club |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 3:31 pm ] |
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David Poland doesn't know JACK!! 
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| Author: | baumer72 [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:22 pm ] |
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Snrub wrote: With possibly the exception of X-Men (it could, and probably will, finish below $200 million, but $160 seems a bit low considering it's almost guaranteed an opening above $70 million), these all seem quite reasonable. He's clearly given it a bit of thought. It's actually the worst bit of box office prediting I've seen in quite sometime. If this is what the summer actually musters, then Hollywood is in trouble. X-Men will make closer to 200 than 150 and to say that Davinci makes a miniscule 135 is a joke. He put thought into these predictions? Sure, maybe while he was taking a shit he thought about writing the column, otherwise, this is a joke. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:23 pm ] |
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Posideon within 15m of The Da Vinci Code? MI3 85m ahead of it? 
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| Author: | A. G. [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: David Poland Predicts the Summer Box Office Totals |
yoshue wrote: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists/poland/2006/060413_chart.html My only comment is: he's nuts if he thinks DaVinci tops off at $135 million. 135m is not low for a talk-heavy adult drama with very little action, in which the lead has a terrible hair cut. 
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| Author: | baumer72 [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: David Poland Predicts the Summer Box Office Totals |
Archie Gates wrote: yoshue wrote: http://www.moviecitynews.com/columnists/poland/2006/060413_chart.html My only comment is: he's nuts if he thinks DaVinci tops off at $135 million. 135m is not low for a talk-heavy adult drama with very little action, in which the lead has a terrible hair cut. Tell that to Sixth Sense |
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