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| The 2006 Documentary B.O. Thread http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18543 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 4:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 2006 Documentary B.O. Thread |
I figured we need a thread to keep track of the documentaries coming out this year, seeing that one really can't make a thread for a single one, unless its an obvious conversation starter, like a Michael Moore's latest. Anyway, a list of the Top Docs so far ($250,000 or higher, as of 8/22): 1. An Inconvenient Truth (Paramount Classics) - $22,488,919 2. Wordplay (ThinkFilm) - $2,940,773 3. Why We Fight (Sony Picture Classics) - $1,439,972 4. Who Killed the Electric Car? (SPC) - $1,215,628 5. Leonard Cohan: I'm Your Man (Lionsgate) - $903,625 6. The Heart of the Game (Miramax) - $429,738 7. Sketches of Frank Gehry (SPC) - $426,182 8. The Devil and Daniel Johnson (SPC) - $334,450 I'll post my thoughts on selected films in a bit. |
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| Author: | dolcevita [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 4:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The 2006 Documentary B.O. Thread |
Positive Jon wrote: The Heart of the Game (Miramax) - 6/14 Starting to pump the trailer for this into theatres. I'm not so enthused, and I think neither were any of the audiences I was with. No Mad Hot Ballroom here. I give it 3 million tops. Quote: Wordplay (IFC) - 6/16 I want to see this. It'll make pennies, however. Quote: Leonard Cohan: I'm Your Man (Lionsgate) - 6/21 Most anticipated movie of the year. He's my favorite musician, and I'm frothing at the mouth to see the doc. Its also sitting at 100% over at RT right now. It'll still make pennies. :-( 1 million tops. Quote: The U.S. vs. John Lennon (Lionsgate) - 7/21 This Film is Not Yet Rated (IFC) - 9/1 Those will be your two highest grossing docs this year, barring some film about North American Moose. I'll post my thoughts on selected films in a bit.[/quote] |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 5:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The 2006 Documentary B.O. Thread |
dolcevita wrote: Quote: The U.S. vs. John Lennon (Lionsgate) - 7/21 This Film is Not Yet Rated (IFC) - 9/1 Those will be your two highest grossing docs this year, barring some film about North American Moose. I doubt TFiNYR will do too well. The appeal I think will be limited to film geeks, as those are the only people that really care about the MPAA's flawed system (Outside of conservitives, who dislike it for the opposite reasons this film has). The Lennon doc should do well though. However, An Inconvenient Truth is the one to look out for. Paramount Classics seems to think the film has real potential, as they posted the trailer at YouTube, where it has gotten over 20000 hits and has politically inept teenagers from both sides arguing. And appearently they're aiming for a wide release on June 16 (The weakest weekend this summer, excluding August). So watch out for that. And the #1 Docu of the year currently belongs to Sicko (Moore's latest), which is 95% locked for at least $10M (Barring an odd abstence of buzz). |
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| Author: | zennier [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The 2006 Documentary B.O. Thread |
Positive Jon wrote: dolcevita wrote: Quote: The U.S. vs. John Lennon (Lionsgate) - 7/21 This Film is Not Yet Rated (IFC) - 9/1 Those will be your two highest grossing docs this year, barring some film about North American Moose. I doubt TFiNYR will do too well. The appeal I think will be limited to film geeks, as those are the only people that really care about the MPAA's flawed system (Outside of conservitives, who dislike it for the opposite reasons this film has). The Lennon doc should do well though. However, An Inconvenient Truth is the one to look out for. Paramount Classics seems to think the film has real potential, as they posted the trailer at YouTube, where it has gotten over 20000 hits and has politically inept teenagers from both sides arguing. And appearently they're aiming for a wide release on June 16 (The weakest weekend this summer, excluding August). So watch out for that. And the #1 Docu of the year currently belongs to Sicko (Moore's latest), which is 95% locked for at least $10M (Barring an odd abstence of buzz). Hehe. Yes, An Inconvenient Truth looks to be the biggest hit of the year. This one could pull in over eight figures, though an exceptional run into the 3-5m range seems probable. Early reception is very strong and the trailer is quite compelling, if a bit one sided (but hey, how objective can you be in 2 minutes). Plus, it appeals to the core group of environmentalists and progressives, so methinks it'll be quite popular. |
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| Author: | Anonymous [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:29 pm ] |
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No Awesome, I Fuckin' Shot That! or The Devil and Daniel Johnston? |
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| Author: | zennier [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:35 pm ] |
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loyalfromlondon wrote: No Awesome, I Fuckin' Shot That!? Ya, because theaters will play a movie with that title... |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:35 pm ] |
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loyalfromlondon wrote: No Awesome, I Fuckin' Shot That! or The Devil and Daniel Johnston? Both are out already and are onto...not-so-hot runs: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... hnston.htm http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... wesome.htm (Dunno what's up with that total  )
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| Author: | zennier [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:42 pm ] |
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Ouch. Those two are off to troubled starts for sure. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:12 pm ] |
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Sicko will definitly be the biggest... |
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| Author: | zingy [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:13 pm ] |
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Does Farce of the Penguins count as a documentary? If it does, I think it could do well. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:31 pm ] |
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Zingaling wrote: Does Farce of the Penguins count as a documentary? If it does, I think it could do well. Nope, that would be a Mockumentary. |
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| Author: | zennier [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:40 pm ] |
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Positive Jon wrote: Zingaling wrote: Does Farce of the Penguins count as a documentary? If it does, I think it could do well. Nope, that would be a Mockumentary. Its terrible to know that The Big Tease (the best mockdoc ever) scored only 187,000$ 
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| Author: | Libs [ Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:41 pm ] |
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Positive Jon wrote: Zingaling wrote: Does Farce of the Penguins count as a documentary? If it does, I think it could do well. Nope, that would be a Mockumentary. Speaking of mockumentaries... Who else is basically dying for For Your Consideration later this year? |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 11:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Libs wrote: Who else is basically dying for For Your Consideration later this year? Two Words: Ricky. Gervais. I'm there. And just for the hell of it, I'll rank the upcoming docs in order of how I think they'll perform (No totals, I'm not that fearless): 1. Sicko (Um, it's Michael Moore?) 2. An Inconvenient Truth (P. Classics seems to be pushing this hard) 3. The U.S. vs. John Lennon (C'mon, who doesn't like John?) 4. The Heart of the Game (Closest thing to a Family doc this year) 5. Once in a Lifetime (The backstory of soccer should have some appeal) 6. Wordplay (Sundance buzz should help it somewhat) 7. This Film is Not Yet Rated (Should get enough buzz among film buffs to do well) 8. Favela Rising (Another uplifting doc, but the backstory might be too grim) 9. Leonard Cohan: I'm Your Man (These kind of docs usually don't do too well) 10. Sketches of Frank Gehry (These kind of docs REALLY don't do too well) |
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| Author: | Bradley Witherberry [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 11:55 am ] |
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Does Neil Young: Heart of Gold count as a doc in your book - it pulled in $1,515,356... |
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| Author: | Jeff [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Well I definately forsee Sicko as being the highest grossing doc. of the year unless as Dolce pointed out, some surprise film about North American Moose is released. Should pull in $20 or so million easily. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:21 pm ] |
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bradley witherberry wrote: Does Neil Young: Heart of Gold count as a doc in your book - it pulled in $1,515,356... I think thats considered more of a concert film then a documentary. Same thing goes for Block Party. |
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| Author: | Dkmuto [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 2:03 pm ] |
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Libs wrote: Positive Jon wrote: Zingaling wrote: Does Farce of the Penguins count as a documentary? If it does, I think it could do well. Nope, that would be a Mockumentary. Speaking of mockumentaries... Who else is basically dying for For Your Consideration later this year? Me. It's Christopher Guest, right? As for docs, I'm interested in a lot of these: Sicko, This Film is Not Yet Rated, The Heart of the Game, Wordplay, Unknown White Male, etc. Sicko will do well, but as for the others listed in the thread, I don't know. I don't think you can really predict docs like you can other genres. |
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| Author: | Dkmuto [ Fri Apr 14, 2006 2:05 pm ] |
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Oh, and what's up all the musical docs this year? |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Mon May 08, 2006 3:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
God, I can't wait for summer. Only 16 days until An Inconvenient Truth comes out. I've updated the main post to add Who Killed the Electric Car? (Another pollution-themed doc) and the grosses-to-date. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Mon May 15, 2006 1:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Sketches of Frank Gehry opened to a respectable but unsteller $8,500 PTA in 2 theaters (You do the math). It probably won't expand well, so I doubt a total much higher then $100,000. However, I really wanted to bump this for An Inconvenient Truth, which is amazing me right now with the amount of advertising/publicity its getting. Paramount Classics just set up a group on Facebook for those that will be the movie, and currently has over 3,000 members. They really have a lot of faith in this. $10M, anyone? |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Mon May 29, 2006 1:19 am ] |
| Post subject: | |
Finally, something interesting! I realize ANT already has a thread, but I thought I'd bump this anyway for it and other Docus coming out. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
Surely I'm not the only interested in this year's Doc line-up?
Some updates: -An Inconvenient Truth looks to be this ummer's breakout doc. Unfortunately the film hasn't expanded well outside of the city, so it'll proabably finish around $15-20 million, enough for the #4 documentary of all time. -Sketches of Frank Gehry has actually done pretty well in limited release for a doc about an artist few have heard of in no more then 20 theaters, looking to pass The Devil and Daniel Johnson this weekend to (Temporarly) take #3 for 2006 Docs and finish around $375,000, give or take $25,000. -The Heart of the Game had a mediocre $3,750 PTA in only 3 theaters opening weekend, but it increased in week two while adding 8 theaters. Looks like a good sign of WOM. -Wordplay has gotten off to a decent start, with a $16,423 PTA. Whether or not it can be the next Spellbound remains to be seen. -Leonard Cohen: I'm Your Man opened yesterday to a good-not-great $4,650 in ome NY theater. Should make $15,000-20,000 for the weekend. -7 new docs have been announced since my last update, 3 of which (Blood of My Brother, The Ground Truth and My Country, My Country) involve the curent Iraq War. I think we're finally feeling the effect of Fahrenheit 9/11. Not that any of them will make a fraction of what that did or anything. Comment, plz? |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | |
C'mon, NOBODY cares about the Documentary world? Dolce?
Anyway, I updated the list and have decided to get rid of the upcoming docs list. Here is BOM's list. And right now I'm thinking The U.S. vs. John Lennon has a shot at making $5M+. And it'll be interesting to see how they release the Al Franken doc. |
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| Author: | Bradley Witherberry [ Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:01 am ] |
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Sadly, the awesome documentary/docudrama Road to Guantanamo bombed at the BO ($326,876), though I'm not surprised since it's a story a lot of people don't want to know about... And what about IMAX documentaries this year? Usually they're going gangbusters with one of their titles... |
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