Dr. Lecter wrote:
BJ's projection for The Benchwarmers is WAY too generous.
I was checking out films that were similar, and a 40% saturday increase seemed reasonable, even at this time of year, it may have been a bit high
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| Scores w/ projections http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18362 |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:11 pm ] |
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82, blah |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 7:26 pm ] |
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BJ's projection for The Benchwarmers is WAY too generous. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:07 pm ] |
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Dr. Lecter wrote: BJ's projection for The Benchwarmers is WAY too generous. I was checking out films that were similar, and a 40% saturday increase seemed reasonable, even at this time of year, it may have been a bit high
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:09 pm ] |
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Yeah, but not opening weekend, I think. Maybe later in the run. |
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| Author: | Jeff 42 [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:22 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meldown [col]39.90 [col]32.80 [col color=#fefdd6]78.35% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]17.50 [col]21.40 [col color=#fefbb9]81.78% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]13.50 [col]13.00 [col color=#fefdd6]96.15% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.90 [col]9.00 [col color=#fefbb9]90.00% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]6.00 [col]7.20 [col color=#fefdd6]83.33% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]ATL [col]5.20 [col]4.50 [col color=#fefbb9]84.44% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.10 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefdd6]100.00% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendtta [col]3.30 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]97.06% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]3.00 [col]2.80 [col color=#fefdd6]92.86% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.60 [col]2.60 [col color=#fefbb9]100.00% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]90.40 [/table] Obviously She's the Man is way overprojected, but that will hurt everyone's score. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:24 pm ] |
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Dr. Lecter wrote: Yeah, but not opening weekend, I think. Maybe later in the run. most did 20%-45% increases on there opening wknd. I guess I was a bit to generous 
Between 18.9m-20m with a 15%-25% saturday increase. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:30 pm ] |
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That sounds more like it! 
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| Author: | Outatime [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:44 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meldown [col]42.60 [col]32.80 [col color=#fefdd6]70.12% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]16.50 [col]21.40 [col color=#fefbb9]77.10% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]14.90 [col]13.00 [col color=#fefdd6]85.38% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.60 [col]9.00 [col color=#fefbb9]93.33% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]6.00 [col]7.20 [col color=#fefdd6]83.33% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]ATL [col]6.20 [col]4.50 [col color=#fefbb9]62.22% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.10 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefdd6]100.00% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendtta [col]3.40 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]100.00% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]4.30 [col]2.80 [col color=#fefdd6]46.43% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.80 [col]2.60 [col color=#fefbb9]92.31% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]81.02 [/table] |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat Apr 08, 2006 11:55 pm ] |
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[table][row]Movie[col]Actual[col]Prediction[col]Score[row]Ice Age: The Meltdown[col]$32,800,000 [col]$39,500,000 [col]79.57%[row]The Benchwarmers[col]$21,400,000 [col]$14,700,000 [col]68.69%[row]Take the Lead[col]$13,000,000 [col]$14,400,000 [col]89.23%[row]Inside Man[col]$9,000,000 [col]$9,300,000 [col]96.67%[row]Lucky Number Slevin[col]$7,200,000 [col]$6,100,000 [col]84.72%[row]ATL[col]$4,500,000 [col]$5,500,000 [col]77.78%[row]Phat Girlz[col]$2,800,000 [col]$2,600,000 [col]92.86%[row]Failure to Launch[col]$4,100,000 [col]$4,100,000 [col]100.00%[row]V for Vendetta[col]$3,400,000 [col]$3,500,000 [col]97.06%[row]She's the Man[col]$2,600,000 [col]$2,600,000 [col]100.00%[row]Overall[col]$100,800,000 [col]$102,300,000 [col]88.66%[/table] And assuming that The Benchwarmers is overprojected and it makes around $20 million instead, I'll have 89.14%. Not bad after two straight months of doing awful. |
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| Author: | paper [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 12:59 pm ] |
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Went down with estimates, but I think I still may be on top compared to everyone else who's posted here so far: [table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meldown [col]41.10 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]80.87% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]18.00 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]87.80% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]15.00 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]82.81% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.40 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]97.83% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]7.20 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]98.59% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]ATL [col]4.70 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefbb9]76.32% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]Failure to Launch [col]3.90 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefdd6]95.12% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendtta [col]3.40 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]100.00% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]3.00 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]96.77% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.40 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]85.71% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]90.18 [/table] [url=http://www.worldofkj.com/tools/Calculator/index.php |
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| Author: | AlexGTX [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:02 pm ] |
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Ice Age: The Meldown - (41.70 / 34.50) -- Accuracy: 79.13% The Benchwarmers - (17.60 / 20.50) -- Accuracy: 85.85% Take the Lead - (7.90 / 12.70) -- Accuracy: 62.20% Inside Man - (9.50 / 9.10) -- Accuracy: 95.60% Lucky Number Slevin - (3.90 / 7.10) -- Accuracy: 54.93% ATL - (5.30 / 3.70) -- Accuracy: 56.76% Failure to Launch - (4.00 / 4.10) -- Accuracy: 97.56% V for Vendtta - (3.50 / 3.30) -- Accuracy: 93.94% Phat Girlz - (2.70 / 3.10) -- Accuracy: 87.10% She's the Man - (2.70 / 2.10) -- Accuracy: 71.43% OVERALL ESTIMATE ACCURACY: 78.45% Calculate your score God I did horrible. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:04 pm ] |
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84.08%. I liked yesterday's score better. |
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| Author: | The Scottie [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:19 pm ] |
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84.78%, but big drop from projections, but still acceptable compared to most other people's score. Oh and Frenchman, I think you will win for sure. I think this score of my should get myself and Zing in the top 20, don't you think. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:21 pm ] |
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It might, considering the derby average is probably quite low... |
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| Author: | OSHO [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:28 pm ] |
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86.43 % |
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| Author: | paper [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:29 pm ] |
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Scott V. wrote: 84.78%, but big drop from projections, but still acceptable compared to most other people's score. Oh and Frenchman, I think you will win for sure. I think this score of my should get myself and Zing in the top 20, don't you think. You and Zing are locks for top 20 I think, but I'm not going to go out and say I think I've won, seeing there's been like three other weeks where I thought I had definitely won after estimates and some nobody had a great score...I think I'd be a lock to win if I had changed my prediction for Benchwarmers to 20 million in time (I really meant to) |
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| Author: | paper [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:29 pm ] |
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Magnus101 wrote: Accuracy: 83.48% About 1.5% drop from projections. Hopefully it may bounce from actuals. Still, probably should crack top 100. Try top 50. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:30 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meltdown [col]40.60 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]82.32% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]15.40 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]75.12% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]16.50 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]71.09% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.10 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]98.91% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]5.60 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]78.87% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.10 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefbb9]100.00% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]ATL [col]5.00 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefdd6]68.42% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendetta [col]3.50 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]97.06% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]3.50 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]87.10% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.60 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]76.19% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]83.51 [/table] Calculate your score |
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| Author: | Vovanik [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:39 pm ] |
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85.83% |
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| Author: | Jeff 42 [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:42 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meltdown [col]39.90 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]84.35% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]17.50 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]85.37% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]13.50 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]94.53% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.90 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]92.39% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]6.00 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]84.51% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.10 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefbb9]100.00% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]ATL [col]5.20 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefdd6]63.16% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendetta [col]3.30 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]97.06% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]3.00 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]96.77% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.60 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]76.19% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]87.43 [/table] |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 1:51 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meltdown [col]40.80 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]81.74% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]14.90 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]72.68% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]13.20 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]96.88% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]8.70 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]94.57% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]4.70 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]66.20% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.00 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefbb9]97.56% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]ATL [col]5.90 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefdd6]44.74% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendetta [col]2.90 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]85.29% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]2.80 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]90.32% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.70 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]71.43% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]80.14 [/table] Calculate your score Massive almost 5% drop from projections. I've had luck with my scores going up lately, so it had to come eventually I guess. Everything went the way I didn't want it to. |
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| Author: | trixster [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 2:02 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meltdown [col]40.80 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]81.74% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]14.70 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]71.71% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]13.50 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]94.53% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]10.00 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]91.30% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]5.40 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]76.06% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]Failure to Launch [col]4.20 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefbb9]97.56% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]ATL [col]5.20 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefdd6]63.16% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendetta [col]3.50 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]97.06% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]3.20 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]96.77% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.70 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]71.43% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]84.13 [/table] ATL and She's the Man dropping huge from projections dropped my score over 2%, but I should still crack top 20, considering how bad the derby average is. |
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| Author: | Crag Hack [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:28 pm ] |
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[table] [row color=#1d378e]Rank [col]Film [col]Predicted [col]Actual [col]Accuracy [row color=#e7edf6] 1 [col]Ice Age: The Meltdown [col]39.00 [col]34.50 [col color=#fefdd6]86.96% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]The Benchwarmers [col]17.50 [col]20.50 [col color=#fefbb9]85.37% [row color=#e7edf6] 3 [col]Take the Lead [col]11.50 [col]12.80 [col color=#fefdd6]89.84% [row color=#d6e8fe] 2 [col]Inside Man [col]9.00 [col]9.20 [col color=#fefbb9]97.83% [row color=#e7edf6] 5 [col]Lucky Number Slevin [col]6.00 [col]7.10 [col color=#fefdd6]84.51% [row color=#d6e8fe] 6 [col]Failure to Launch [col]3.90 [col]4.10 [col color=#fefbb9]95.12% [row color=#e7edf6] 7 [col]ATL [col]5.10 [col]3.80 [col color=#fefdd6]65.79% [row color=#d6e8fe] 8 [col]V for Vendetta [col]3.20 [col]3.40 [col color=#fefbb9]94.12% [row color=#e7edf6] 8 [col]Phat Girlz [col]2.60 [col]3.10 [col color=#fefdd6]83.87% [row color=#d6e8fe] 10 [col]She's the Man [col]2.50 [col]2.10 [col color=#fefbb9]80.95% [/table] [table] [row color=#1d378e] Your Score = [col color=#d4fbca]86.44 [/table] Dropped 3.5% from projections, may still be enough for Top 10 Calculate your score |
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| Author: | mattmav45 [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:40 pm ] |
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84.98% with projections. This could be my best derby ever in terms of ranking. |
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| Author: | Impact [ Sun Apr 09, 2006 3:45 pm ] |
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Rank Film Predicted Estimate Est. Accuracy 1 Ice Age 39.4 32.8 79.88% 2 The Benchwarmers 12.0 21.4 56.07% 3 Take the Lead 6.5 13 50.00% 4 Inside Man 8.7 9 96.67% 5 Lucky Number Slevin 5.0 7.2 69.44% 6 ATL 6.5 4.5 55.56% 7 Failure to Launch 3.9 4.1 95.12% 8 V for Vendetta 3.3 3.4 97.06% 9 Phat Girlz 6.0 2.8 0.00% 10 She's the Man 2.4 2.6 92.31% Average OVERALL (estimate) 69.21% New Release 58.51% Still in Theater 73.80% Dang I did bad this week! |
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