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Weekend Estimates
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Author:  zingy [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates

[table][row color=#FFFF99]1[col color=#FFFF99]N[col color=#FFFF99]Ice Age: The Meltdown[col color=#FFFF99]Fox[col color=#FFFF99]$70,500,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]3,964[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$17,785 [col color=#FFFF99]$70,500,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1[row]2[col]1[col]Inside Man[col]Uni.[col]$15,692,000 [col]-45.80%[col]2,830[col]12[col]$5,544 [col]$52,763,000 [col]$45 [col]2[row color=#FFFF99]3[col color=#FFFF99]N[col color=#FFFF99]ATL[col color=#FFFF99]WB[col color=#FFFF99]$12,545,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1,602[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$7,830 [col color=#FFFF99]$12,545,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1[row]4[col]4[col]Failure to Launch[col]Par.[col]$6,618,000 [col]-36.70%[col]3,074[col]-128[col]$2,152 [col]$73,243,000 [col]$50 [col]4[row]5[col]2[col]V for Vendetta[col]WB[col]$6,465,000 [col]-47.60%[col]2,910[col]-455[col]$2,221 [col]$56,830,000 [col]$54 [col]3[row]6[col]3[col]Stay Alive[col]BV[col]$4,575,000 [col]-57.30%[col]2,009[col]-[col]$2,277 [col]$17,349,000 [col]-[col]2[row]7[col]6[col]She's the Man[col]DW[col]$4,571,000 [col]-37.40%[col]2,552[col]-79[col]$1,791 [col]$26,764,000 [col]$20 [col]3[row color=#FFFF99]8[col color=#FFFF99]N[col color=#FFFF99]Slither[col color=#FFFF99]Uni.[col color=#FFFF99]$3,676,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1,945[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$1,889 [col color=#FFFF99]$3,676,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1[row]9[col]5[col]The Shaggy Dog[col]BV[col]$3,535,000 [col]-60.90%[col]2,929[col]-492[col]$1,206 [col]$53,847,000 [col]-[col]4[row color=#FFFF99]10[col color=#FFFF99]N[col color=#FFFF99]Basic Instinct 2[col color=#FFFF99]Sony[col color=#FFFF99]$3,200,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1,453[col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]$2,202 [col color=#FFFF99]$3,200,000 [col color=#FFFF99]-[col color=#FFFF99]1[row]11[col]7[col]Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector[col]Lions[col]$3,200,000 [col]-53.80%[col]1,747[col]37[col]$1,831 [col]$11,500,000 [col]-[col]2[row]12[col]8[col]The Hills Have Eyes[col]FoxS[col]$1,875,000 [col]-57.30%[col]1,628[col]-833[col]$1,151 [col]$38,990,000 [col]$15 [col]4[row]13[col]15[col]Thank You for Smoking[col]FoxS[col]$1,675,000 [col]66.80%[col]126[col]72[col]$13,293 [col]$3,418,000 [col]-[col]3[row]14[col]9[col]Eight Below[col]BV[col]$1,020,000 [col]-62.50%[col]1,275[col]-826[col]$800 [col]$79,224,000 [col]-[col]7[row]15[col]10[col]16 Blocks[col]WB[col]$725,000 [col]-66.40%[col]1,007[col]-1,059[col]$719 [col]$35,544,000 [col]-[col]5[row]16[col]17[col]Deep Sea 3-D (IMAX)[col]WB[col]$514,000 [col]-17.00%[col]46[col]-[col]$11,173 [col]$4,514,000 [col]-[col]5[row]17[col]12[col]Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion[col]Lions[col]$425,000 [col]-68.30%[col]476[col]-554[col]$892 [col]$62,793,000 [col]$6 [col]6[row]18[col]11[col]The Pink Panther[col]Sony[col]$400,000 [col]-72.60%[col]626[col]-726[col]$638 [col]$81,670,000 [col]$80 [col]8[/table]This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Author:  O [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:25 pm ]
Post subject: 

Shaggy dog in front of Basic Instinct 2? That might just be enough to ensure BI2 doesn't make the top 10! :tongue: Or it'll probably tie for # 10... :cry:

Author:  O [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:40 pm ]
Post subject: 

Ice Age 2 tops w/ $70.5 m.

Author:  deathawk [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:42 pm ]
Post subject: 

The Mojo numbers are up now

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/ch ... =13&p=.htm

Author:  zingy [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:44 pm ]
Post subject: 

I think Ice Age is overestimated, but either way, it's still excellent.

Nice PTA for ATL.

Author:  O [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:47 pm ]
Post subject: 

3.20 multiplier for Ice Age 2, 3.43 for Ice Age 1. I'll peg the total w/ that # at $252 m. HOWEVER, the weekend estimate IMO is overestimated:

16 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $70,500,000 100.0% 3,964 $17,785 $70,500,000 3/31/2006
17 The Incredibles BV $70,467,623 27.0% 3,933 $17,917 $261,441,092 11/05/2004
18 Finding Nemo BV $70,251,710 20.7% 3,374 $20,821 $339,714,978 5/30/2003

Clearly it would mean alot to have an opening past Pixar's stuff. I don't see it having a better Sunday drop than the original.

Author:  deathawk [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:49 pm ]
Post subject: 

Zingaling wrote:
I think Ice Age is overestimated, but either way, it's still excellent.

Nice PTA for ATL.


I'm inclined to agree, but it probably won't be oof by much, just on the low side of 70 instead of the high. Mojo & SBD had it's Friday at 21.5, the studio bumped it to 22, and the Sunday drop seems a little low, though not unreasonable. This does smell like an estimate intended to get a number out there that may not in fact be the case.

Author:  dolcevita [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Weekend Estimates

2 1 Inside Man Uni. $15,692,000 -45.8% 2,830 +12 $5,544 $52,763,000 $45 2

That's sad. I was hoping it would only fall around 40%. This dosn't bod as well as I would lik for its lgs. I really wanted it to mak 100 million. Its good considring th comptition from Ice Ag 2 and ATL, but still, *sigh*.

3 N ATL WB $12,545,000 - 1,602 - $7,830 $12,545,000 - 1

Thats actually a much higher PTA than I had been expecting.

5 2 V for Vendetta WB $6,465,000 -47.6% 2,910 -455 $2,221 $56,830,000 $54 3

Expected. The Wachowskis (I know they are producers here) tend to mak front-loaded movies. Maybe the target audience?

13 15 Thank You for Smoking FoxS $1,675,000 +66.8% 126 +72 $13,293 $3,418,000 - 3

w00t! I knew it would hold its double digit pta even if it expanded over double its previous theatre count. Poeple are really liking this movie. It should expand to 250 theatres next week if it knows whats good for itself.

- 26 Tsotsi Mira. $294,000 +8.4% 120 +39 $2,450 $1,638,000 - 6

Still chugging along, but very unimpressive.

- N Brick Focus $87,500 - 2 - $43,750 $87,500 - 1

:noway:

I thought it was getting released near here, but wasn't. Its across town and I might catch it mid week on the way back in from work then. I can't wait to hear what Makeshift thought of it!

- N The Devil and Daniel Johnston SPC $25,700 - 5 - $5,140 $25,700 - 1

Considering everyone said how brilliant this movie is, I'm dissappointed in its pta. Th promo posters were great, but its going to have to rely on wom and a slow build now.

No info yet on Beauty Academy of Kabul?

Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:05 pm ]
Post subject: 

ICE AGE 2 won't end up crossing 70 Million for the weekend, in my opinion. It will be under 70 Million.

I feel bad for SLITHER and BASIC INSTINCT 2. They did terrible. BASIC INSTINCT 2 is already a hit overseas though and will do great on DVD so all will be good. I wish I could say the same for SLITHER but it's from Universal so that will keep it from doing great in rentals. It could do good sales though. I definitely see BI2 out by early July now. SLITHER might come out in August.

It's weird THE HILLS HAVE EYES had that big of a drop considering SLITHER couldn't even make 4 Million. Oh well, at least it should get to about 42 Million.

BRICK did absolutely AMAZING in two theaters. It's obvious that will be expanding.

Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Weekend Estimates

dolcevita wrote:
13 15 Thank You for Smoking FoxS $1,675,000 +66.8% 126 +72 $13,293 $3,418,000 - 3

w00t! I knew it would hold its double digit pta even if it expanded over double its previous theatre count. Poeple are really liking this movie. It should expand to 250 theatres next week if it knows whats good for itself.


It's supposed to expand to 300+.

Author:  zingy [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:24 pm ]
Post subject: 

In addition to what Magnus said, The Incredibles had a 3.44 IM opening weekend. I think big computer animated films that open on Friday tend to have smaller IMs the first weekend.

Author:  baumer72 [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:24 pm ]
Post subject: 

Mike wrote:
ICE AGE 2 won't end up crossing 70 Million for the weekend, in my opinion. It will be under 70 Million.

I feel bad for SLITHER and BASIC INSTINCT 2. They did terrible. BASIC INSTINCT 2 is already a hit overseas though and will do great on DVD so all will be good. I wish I could say the same for SLITHER but it's from Universal so that will keep it from doing great in rentals. It could do good sales though. I definitely see BI2 out by early July now. SLITHER might come out in August.

It's weird THE HILLS HAVE EYES had that big of a drop considering SLITHER couldn't even make 4 Million. Oh well, at least it should get to about 42 Million.

BRICK did absolutely AMAZING in two theaters. It's obvious that will be expanding.


How is BI2 a hit overseas? Based on what source? It just got released Friday.

Author:  dolcevita [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Some Weekend Estimates

Mike wrote:
dolcevita wrote:
13 15 Thank You for Smoking FoxS $1,675,000 +66.8% 126 +72 $13,293 $3,418,000 - 3

w00t! I knew it would hold its double digit pta even if it expanded over double its previous theatre count. Poeple are really liking this movie. It should expand to 250 theatres next week if it knows whats good for itself.


It's supposed to expand to 300+.


Thanks Mike.

Great! I still expect an 8,000 pta.

BTW, I want to see Summer Storm too, but I think it already came and left here?

Author:  xiayun [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 2:20 pm ]
Post subject: 

I'm actually disappointed with Brick's PTA. I fully expected it to be in the $60,000 range with only 2 theaters and $14 a seat.

Author:  BJ [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 2:26 pm ]
Post subject: 

great wknd for Ice Age :smile:

Author:  Shack [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 2:41 pm ]
Post subject: 

Heh, I'm the king of kiddie blockbusters. Closest on Harry Potter, Narnia, and now Ice Age 2.

Not a bad IM for Basic Instinct 2 actually, thought it would be mega-frontloaded due to the hype.

Disappointing for Inside Man.

Author:  Joker's Thug #3 [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 3:08 pm ]
Post subject: 

Im not surprised IM didnt increase more on Saturday, Final Four was on last night.

Good to see the wom for BI2 picking up, fantastic increase................

Author:  FILMO [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 3:09 pm ]
Post subject: 

Well great for Ice Age.
Well Inside Man still can do 100.
I do not comment Basic Instinct 2. I guess the result is comment for its own.



[spoil]grann.....ähhh mature porn is out[/spoil]



I KEED I KEED: DONT WORRY: I KEED

Author:  AlexGTX [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 3:40 pm ]
Post subject: 

Dont know why everyone is disapionted a Inside Man its doing fine 15 mil second weekend, what were you guys expecting 16 mil? wow big deal it did fine. It can still reach 100 mil... Collateral anyone? (yes i know it had smaller drops but it has a smaller opening weekend) anyways if it makes 85 mil thats still great.

Author:  O [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 4:13 pm ]
Post subject: 

Just noticed something, global warming blockbusters are opening at $70 m! Ice Age 2 and Day After Tommorow...granted they were going to do well anyway, but its definitely bringing up awareness...

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date
1 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $186,740,799 3,444 $68,743,584 3,425 5/28/04
2 Waterworld Uni. $88,246,220 2,420 $21,171,780 2,268 7/28/95
3 A.I. Artificial Intelligence WB $78,616,689 3,242 $29,352,630 3,242 6/29/01
4 The Arrival Orion $14,063,331 1,693 $4,806,763 1,693 5/31/96
5 Split Second Istr $5,430,822 1,085 $2,250,000 1,085 5/1/92

Author:  AlexGTX [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 4:22 pm ]
Post subject: 

O wrote:
Just noticed something, global warming blockbusters are opening at $70 m! Ice Age 2 and Day After Tommorow...granted they were going to do well anyway, but its definitely bringing up awareness...

Rank Title (click to view) Studio Lifetime Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date
1 The Day After Tomorrow Fox $186,740,799 3,444 $68,743,584 3,425 5/28/04
2 Waterworld Uni. $88,246,220 2,420 $21,171,780 2,268 7/28/95
3 A.I. Artificial Intelligence WB $78,616,689 3,242 $29,352,630 3,242 6/29/01
4 The Arrival Orion $14,063,331 1,693 $4,806,763 1,693 5/31/96
5 Split Second Istr $5,430,822 1,085 $2,250,000 1,085 5/1/92


We didnt listen!!!

Author:  rolandka19 [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 10:12 pm ]
Post subject: 

Extremely impressive openings for Ice Age: The Meltdown and ATL (very nice PTA).

Decent drop for Inside Man. It will end up with a very nice total gross- $85-100 million.

I'm very glad that Thank You For Smoking continues to perform well in limited release.

Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 10:34 pm ]
Post subject: 

Nice obviously for IA.

Poor Slither...

Author:  Cotton [ Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:44 am ]
Post subject: 

Ticket sales are up 40% from the same weekend last year. It's a great boost that'll hopefully continue for a while.

Author:  dolcevita [ Mon Apr 03, 2006 1:08 am ]
Post subject: 

xiayun wrote:
I'm actually disappointed with Brick's PTA. I fully expected it to be in the $60,000 range with only 2 theaters and $14 a seat.


You ever been down to the Angelika here? It couldn't do a 60,000 pta if it rolled out that movie on every screen it had. :-) Tiny theatre, and probably couldn't afford more than two screens for it.

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