So is a 2nd mammoth really worth an additional $30 m opening weekend?
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| April 7-9 predictions http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18172 |
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| Author: | getluv [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | April 7-9 predictions |
Take The Lead (2800) $19m Benchwarmers (3100+) $15m Lucky Number Slevin (1700) $9m Phat Girlz (1100) $6m |
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| Author: | matatonio [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:57 pm ] |
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Benchwarmers- $16.5M Take the Lead- $12M Lucky Number Sleven- $8.1M Phat Girlz- $2.3M |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 1:59 pm ] |
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Take the Lead - $15 million The Benchwarmers - $11 million Lucky Number Slevin - $6 million Phat Girlz - $4 million |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:03 pm ] |
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The whole fun of doing insanely early predictions for the next weekend, is to also include the big holdovers from the previous week! 1 Ice Age 2 $39.6 m -45% from $72 m weekend. Ice Age 1 dropped 35% in its 2nd weekend, so I don't think IA2 will have the best holdover animated film wise. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:04 pm ] |
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Take the Lead - $15 million The Benchwarmers - $10.5 million Lucky Number Slevin - $6 million Phat Girlz - $3.5 million |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:05 pm ] |
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The Benchwarmers - 13.5 million Take the Lead - 10.7 million Lucky Number Slevin - 4.3 million Phat Girls - 3.9 million |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:05 pm ] |
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Ice Age II won't drop 45%. It's the start of Spring Break for a lot of people next weekend. |
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| Author: | getluv [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:06 pm ] |
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O wrote: The whole fun of doing insanely early predictions for the next weekend, is to also include the big holdovers from the previous week! 1 Ice Age 2 $39.6 m -45% from $72 m weekend. Ice Age 1 dropped 35% in its 2nd weekend, so I don't think IA2 will have the best holdover animated film wise. I only predict holdovers when their estimates are released. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:22 pm ] |
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Put me among those that think Ice Age 2 will drop 40%+. The original had a pretty meh multiplier, especially when compared to Shrek (6.31) and Toy Story (6.59). Their sequel's multipliers were about two-thirds of these (TS2 4.28, S2 4.09). I don't see this dropping any less then say, 38%. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:23 pm ] |
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Still, Ice Age 2 will hold the record for biggest April weekend gross of All Time easily, beating Anger Management's 42.2M. Has a movie ever done that before? |
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| Author: | zingy [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:47 pm ] |
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Positive Jon wrote: Still, Ice Age 2 will hold the record for biggest April weekend gross of All Time easily, beating Anger Management's 42.2M. Has a movie ever done that before? I think Ice Age II counts as a March film. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:50 pm ] |
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The 2nd weekend will actually beat the record, I believe that's what he's referring to. |
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| Author: | Jiffy [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:55 pm ] |
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Positive Jon wrote: Still, Ice Age 2 will hold the record for biggest April weekend gross of All Time easily, beating Anger Management's 42.2M. Has a movie ever done that before? The Passion did it in March. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:01 pm ] |
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Shack wrote: The 2nd weekend will actually beat the record, I believe that's what he's referring to. Yep. Ah, thanks Jiffy. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:06 pm ] |
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So is a 2nd mammoth really worth an additional $30 m opening weekend?
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 3:29 pm ] |
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TAKE THE LEAD - 17.2 MILLION THE BENCHWARMERS - 12.9 MILLION LUCKY NUMBER SLEVIN - 9.5 MILLION PHAT GIRLZ - 7.1 MILLION |
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| Author: | xiayun [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:42 pm ] |
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Ice Age 2 won't drop over 40% with those lame new releases. It will set the standard for Cars to match later on this year. |
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| Author: | Harry Warden [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 4:43 pm ] |
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Take the Lead - 15 mil. The Benchwarmers - 11 mil. Phat Girlz(shudder) - 5 million Lucky Number Slevin- 4 million |
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| Author: | misterglass [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:34 pm ] |
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After how poorly I did last weekend, I should never make a prediction again, but... Take the Lead 16 milion The Benchwarmers 14 million Lucky Number Slevin 6 million Phat GIrlz 4 million |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 5:56 pm ] |
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Two more small openers. I hate this. TTL - 11m Benchwarmers - 12m Slevin - 6m Phat Girlz - 
IA2: -34% ATL: -52% Slither: -62% BI2: -79% - Seriously, I think this might drop more then Gigli. |
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| Author: | Outatime [ Sat Apr 01, 2006 11:48 pm ] |
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Take the Lead - $16.7m The Benchwarmers - $15.5m Lucky Number Slevin - $8.0m Phat Girlz - $4.3m |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:01 am ] |
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Take The Lead $18m Benchwarmers $12m Lucky Number Slevin $6m Phat Girlz $4m IA2 $38.6m |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 12:32 pm ] |
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With the smaller than expected Sat drop, I don't see Ice Age 2 at all beating the drop of the 1st... |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:33 pm ] |
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*****MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND***** 1. ICE AGE 2 - 42.3 MILLION 2. TAKE THE LEAD - 17.2 MILLION 3. THE BENCHWARMERS - 12.9 MILLION 4. LUCKY NUMBER SLEVIN - 9.5 MILLION 5. INSIDE MAN - 9.4 MILLION 6. PHAT GIRLZ - 7.1 MILLION 7. ATL - 6 MILLION 8. FAILURE TO LAUNCH - 4.2 MILLION 9. V FOR VENDETTA - 3.4 MILLION 10. SHE'S THE MAN - 2.9 MILLION 11. THANK YOU FOR SMOKING - 2.7 MILLION 12. SLITHER - 2.4 MILLION 13. STAY ALIVE - 2.1 MILLION 14. THE SHAGGY DOG - 1.9 MILLION *ON A CLEAR DAY - $50,000 |
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| Author: | AlexGTX [ Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:55 pm ] |
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1- Ice Age 2- 41.7 2- The Benchwarmers- 17.6 3- Inside Man 9.5 4- Take The Lead 7.9 5- ATL- 5.3 6- Failure To launch- 4 7- Lucky Number Slevin- 3.9 8- V for Vendetta- 3.5 9- Phat Girls- 2.7 10- Shes The Man- 2.7 Other 5- Thank You For Smoking- 2.5 Slither- .9 Stay Alive- 1.2 Basic Instinct 2- .7 The Shaggy Dog- 1.4 Expect Phat Girls and Lucky Number Slevin to perfrom like Slither and Basic Instinct 2 as everyone that I know that has heard of Phat Girls thinks it looks stupid and ATL should keep it from doing any kind of decent bussiness this weekend. As for Lucky Number Slevin there isnt that much appeal and awareness so expect Slither type numbers or Domino type numbers the highest. The Benchwarmers should do the best of the newcomers as appeal is high and many teens will dig into it and everyone is pretty much aware that its coming out. Take The Lead should underperform this weekend I have a big feeling it will do worse than what I predicted, yes i know it sold out its sneakpeaks, but it has to compete with Ice Age 2 for the little kids and as for teens im pretty sure any teenager is going to go see The Benchwarmers over Take The Lead. |
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