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Scores w/projections
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=17471		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Shack [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Scores w/projections
I'm tired of waiting for Jeff or xia, so for now we'll just torri's:

Madea's Family Reunion - $12m
16 Blocks - $11.6m
Eight Below - $10.8m
Ultraviolet - $9.6m
Dave Chapelle's Block Party - $8.3m
Aquamarine - $7.3m
The Pink Panther - $7.2m
Date Movie - $5.6m
Curious George - $3.9m
Firewall - $4.2m

Score:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 13.6 [col] 12 [col] 86.67% [col] 41.78%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 14.3 [col] 11.6 [col] 76.72% [col] -14.36%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Pink Panther [col] 11.3 [col] 10.8 [col] 95.37% [col] -4.63%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Something New [col] 13.2 [col] 9.6 [col] 62.50% [col] 5.98%[row color=#ffCC66] 5 [col] Curious George [col] 16 [col] 8.3 [col] 7.23% [col] 7.23%[row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] Firewall [col] 3.9 [col] 7.3 [col] 53.42% [col] -8.48%[row color=#ffCC66] 7 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 7.4 [col] 7.2 [col] 97.22% [col] 34.26%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 4.3 [col] 5.6 [col] 76.79% [col] -3.77%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 3.8 [col] 4.2 [col] 90.48% [col] 13.06%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 4.7 [col] 3.9 [col] 79.49% [col] 41.56%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]72.59%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 61.33% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 63.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 78.77% [/table]
God dammit. :mad: I hope torri sucks nuts at projecting...
Author:  zingy [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row]Movie[col]Actual[col]Prediction[col]Score[row]16 Blocks[col]$11,600,000 [col]$14,800,000 [col]72.41%[row]Dave Chappelle's Block Party[col]$8,300,000 [col]$14,400,000 [col]26.51%[row]Madea's Family Reunion[col]$12,000,000 [col]$13,500,000 [col]87.50%[row]Ultraviolet[col]$9,600,000 [col]$11,800,000 [col]77.08%[row]Eight Below[col]$10,800,000 [col]$11,600,000 [col]92.59%[row]Aquamarine[col]$7,300,000 [col]$4,200,000 [col]57.53%[row]The Pink Panther[col]$7,200,000 [col]$7,700,000 [col]93.06%[row]Curious George[col]$3,900,000 [col]$4,700,000 [col]79.49%[row]Date Movie[col]$5,600,000 [col]$4,800,000 [col]85.71%[row]Firewall[col]$4,200,000 [col]$4,200,000 [col]100.00%[row]Overall[col]$80,500,000 [col]$91,700,000 [col]77.19%[/table]

If I didn't change my predictions at the last second, I would have had 80.76%.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
It's funny that Nebs is going to destroy us all, when we were laughing and "Ouch"-ing at his prediction when he posted it.
Author:  zingy [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah. Nebs has 84.40%. Unless some BOM member went against the rest and predicted close to the same amount, Nebs might win after all.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] Madea [col] 12.4 [col] 12 [col] 96.67% [col] 55.74%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] 16 Blocks [col] 13.2 [col] 11.6 [col] 86.21% [col] 2.13%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] 8 Below [col] 11.0 [col] 10.8 [col] 98.15% [col] 0.80%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Ultraviolet [col] 8.9 [col] 9.6 [col] 92.71% [col] -4.03%[row color=#ffCC66] 5 [col] Block Party [col] 13.5 [col] 8.3 [col] 37.35% [col] 30.21%[row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] Aquamarine [col] 3.8 [col] 7.3 [col] 52.05% [col] -8.26%[row color=#ffCC66] 7 [col] Pink Panther [col] 7.1 [col] 7.2 [col] 98.61% [col] 30.09%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Date Movie [col] 4.2 [col] 5.6 [col] 75.00% [col] -8.33%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Firewall [col] 4.3 [col] 4.2 [col] 97.62% [col] 36.33%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Curious George [col] 4.6 [col] 3.9 [col] 82.05% [col] 40.67%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]81.64%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 64.11% [/table]

Go me! :hahaha:
Author:  Shack [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
Well, unknown BOM-ers will do great this weekend. Look at the derby averages.

I just calculated it, and the average is:

...84.40% :huh: :ohmy:

:ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

What are the chances of that? Like 1 in a billion?
Author:  OSHO [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
81.93 %
Nebs hero day :shades:
Author:  paper [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 16.1 [col] 12 [col] 65.83% [col] 12.70%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 13.5 [col] 11.6 [col] 83.62% [col] -2.37%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Pink Panther [col] 10.5 [col] 10.8 [col] 97.22% [col] 4.30%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Something New [col] 8.1 [col] 9.6 [col] 84.38% [col] -3.67%[row color=#ffCC66] 5 [col] Curious George [col] 14.5 [col] 8.3 [col] 25.30% [col] 25.30%[row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] Firewall [col] 9.1 [col] 7.3 [col] 75.34% [col] 19.79%[row color=#ffCC66] 7 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 7.5 [col] 7.2 [col] 95.83% [col] 34.72%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 4.5 [col] 5.6 [col] 80.36% [col] 5.36%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 4.7 [col] 3.9 [col] 79.49% [col] 31.10%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 4.0 [col] 4.2 [col] 95.24% [col] 33.17%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]78.26%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 62.22% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 73.42% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 81.49% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 16.04% in your average.

Not terrible considering I made these predictions in 5 minutes flat.
Author:  asalem182 [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] Madea's Family Reunion [col] 13.2 [col] 12 [col] 90.00% [col] 46.44%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] 16 Blocks [col] 12.9 [col] 11.6 [col] 88.79% [col] 6.63%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Eight Below [col] 11.2 [col] 10.8 [col] 96.30% [col] -2.82%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Ultraviolet [col] 9.9 [col] 9.6 [col] 96.87% [col] 4.48%[row color=#ffCC66] 5 [col] Dave Chapelle's Block Party [col] 11.7 [col] 8.3 [col] 59.04% [col] 26.18%[row color=#ffCC66] 6 [col] Aquamarine [col] 5.9 [col] 7.3 [col] 80.82% [col] -12.83%[row color=#ffCC66] 7 [col] The Pink Panther [col] 7.1 [col] 7.2 [col] 98.61% [col] 30.09%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Date Movie [col] 4.6 [col] 5.6 [col] 82.14% [col] 9.92%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Firewall [col] 4.5 [col] 4.2 [col] 92.86% [col] 38.02%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Curious George [col] 4.6 [col] 3.9 [col] 82.05% [col] 40.67%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]86.75%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 68.07% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 83.69% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.79% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 18.68% in your average.

It seems coming up with weird predictions has finally paid off :biggrin:
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Even if these will be actuals I bet there will be atleast 15 people better than me.

Still, quite glad with score. :=)
Author:  trixster [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
81.94%

If I hadn't changed Block Party and Aquamarine to go with the flow here, I would've had 90.42%! Believe it or not...
Author:  BJ [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
72.30%, :censored:
Author:  BJ [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 6:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
BJs Estimates:

1. Madea's Family Reunion - 12.0m
2. 16 Blocks - 11.8m
3. Eight Below - 11.0m
4. Ultra Violet - 9.6m
5. Dave Chapelle's Block Party - 8.0m
6. The Pink Panther - 7.6m
7. Auqamarine - 6.5m
8. Date Movie - 5.6m
9. Curious George - 4.5m
10. Firewall - 4.2m
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 7:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
78.33% :glare:
Author:  DP07 [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scores w/projections
79.52%

81.05% with my projections:

Madea's Family Reunion - 12.3m
16 Blocks - 11.9m
Eight Below - 10.2m
Ultraviolet - 9.1m
Dave Chapelle's Block Party - 7.8m
The Pink Panther - 6.9m
Aquamarine - 6.5m
Date Movie - 5.0m
Curious George - 4.4m
Firewall - 3.9m

Wish I had not dropped Aquamarine from 5.2m to 3.8m, or increased Block Party from 8m to 10.8m. Plus I was at 10m-12m on 16 Blocks for over a month before increasing it this week. Although I at least decreased Ultraviolet.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 8:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
I got 74.28% with yours, which is better.

Hopefully Chappele has an uber-frontloaded crap IM so everyone get's hurt and I can sit back with my 0% watching them suffer.
Author:  haerpinot [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 9:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
79.66%, 80.37% with DP's.

I did have Aquamarine at 7 million but I didn't want to repeat last week and get another 0% this weekend so I lowered it to 5 mill, darn.
Author:  trixster [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 10:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
I have 83.48% with DP's, which is not half-bad.

Again, if I had not upped Block Party from $9 to $13.2 and dropped Aquamarine from $6.3 to $3.8, I would have 92.71%.
Author:  torrino [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Scores w/projections
DP07 wrote:
79.52%

81.05% with my projections:

Madea's Family Reunion - 12.3m
16 Blocks - 11.9m
Eight Below - 10.2m
Ultraviolet - 9.1m
Dave Chapelle's Block Party - 7.8m
The Pink Panther - 6.9m
Aquamarine - 6.5m
Date Movie - 5.0m
Curious George - 4.4m
Firewall - 3.9m

Wish I had not dropped Aquamarine from 5.2m to 3.8m, or increased Block Party from 8m to 10.8m. Plus I was at 10m-12m on 16 Blocks for over a month before increasing it this week. Although I at least decreased Ultraviolet.

Curious George will not make $4.4m (what kind of multiplier are you giving it?), and Firewall will make more than $3.9m (it'll have at least an 80% increase on Saturday).

Unless...did the Showbiz numbers change?
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Mar 04, 2006 11:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
Shack wrote:
I got 74.28% with yours, which is better.

Hopefully Chappele has an uber-frontloaded crap IM so everyone get's hurt and I can sit back with my 0% watching them suffer.


That'll be great. :=)

77.98% with DP's.
Author:  dar [ Sun Mar 05, 2006 7:35 am ]
Post subject: 
80.67% with Torri´s, 82.50% with DP´s.

Am I the only one who thinks Aquamarine is overpredicted? What is It has a "Sleepover", "Firdst daughter" type of multiplier?
Author:  MikeQ. [ Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:57 am ]
Post subject: 
75.79% with DPO7's projections.

I clearly just didn't perform well this week at all, and couldn't appropriately gauge how the opener's would perform. I was easily off on all four of them. I feel pretty lucky to have cracked 75%. A poor week for me, I just want to move on now.

PEACE, Mike.
Author:  JMorphin [ Sun Mar 05, 2006 1:49 pm ]
Post subject: 
72 with estimates, blech :wacko:
Author:  zingy [ Sun Mar 05, 2006 1:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
74.26%.

This needs to stop.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
87.28%
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