World of KJ :: View topic - Scores with projections

the french man wrote:

I like these projections better so I deleted mine:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [col] -3.82%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.9 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.84% [col] 10.34%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.2 [col] 15 [col] 81.33% [col] -5.81%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.6 [col] 13 [col] 96.92% [col] 4.95%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 10.3 [col] 10 [col] 97.00% [col] -1.02%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [col] 2.81%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 92.45% [col] -1.99%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [col] 8.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.0 [col] 2.9 [col] 96.55% [col] 16.55%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]94.45%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 91.40% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 91.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 96.45% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number.
You've gain a 3.05% in your average.

Author:	Anonymous [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 1:33 pm ]
Post subject:	Scores with projections
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 13.3 [col] 19.5 [col] 68.21% [col] 2.36%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.3 [col] 18.5 [col] 93.51% [col] -3.51%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 9 [col] 15 [col] 60.00% [col] -4.29%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13.7 [col] 13 [col] 94.62% [col] -5.38%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9 [col] 10 [col] 90.00% [col] 0.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.7 [col] 94.03% [col] -3.07%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.4 [col] 5.3 [col] 98.11% [col] -1.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [col] 4.23%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.4 [col] 2.9 [col] 82.76% [col] 18.76%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]87.44%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 86.67% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 79.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.02% [/table]

Author:	paper [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 1:37 pm ]
Post subject:
I like these projections better so I deleted mine: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [col] -3.82%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.9 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.84% [col] 10.34%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.2 [col] 15 [col] 81.33% [col] -5.81%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.6 [col] 13 [col] 96.92% [col] 4.95%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 10.3 [col] 10 [col] 97.00% [col] -1.02%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [col] 2.81%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 92.45% [col] -1.99%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [col] 8.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.0 [col] 2.9 [col] 96.55% [col] 16.55%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]94.45%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 91.40% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 91.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 96.45% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number. You've gain a 3.05% in your average.

Author:	Rev [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 18.2 [col] 20.2 [col] 90.10% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 12.8 [col] 16.8 [col] 76.19% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 7.3 [col] 14 [col] 52.14% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 16.0 [col] 13.7 [col] 83.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.4 [col] 10.1 [col] 83.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.9 [col] 6.9 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.3 [col] 5.4 [col] 83.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.7 [col] 4.5 [col] 95.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.9 [col] 2.5 [col] 44.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.5 [col] 92.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]79.97%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 75.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 83.01% [/table]

Author:	zingy [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 1:57 pm ]
Post subject:
89.04%.

Author:	DP07 [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:
89.14% with the projections entered there. 89.59% with my own projections.

World of KJ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/

Scores with projections http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=16863	Page 1 of 3

Author:	Shack [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:27 pm ]
Post subject:
Brokeback Mountain won't have that good of an IM, especially with the snowstorm. It should dip in the 3.8-3.9 range I think. Anyways: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.4 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.23% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 22.3 [col] 18.5 [col] 79.46% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.7 [col] 15 [col] 84.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 15.6 [col] 13 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.1 [col] 10 [col] 81.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 89.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 7.1 [col] 5.3 [col] 66.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.3 [col] 4.1 [col] 80.49% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]81.49%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 83.34% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.26% [/table] God dammit. Two weeks in a row.

Author:	haerpinot [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:
91.50%

Author:	Jeff 42 [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:54 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 20 [col] 19.5 [col] 97.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.30% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 14 [col] 15 [col] 93.33% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 11.5 [col] 13 [col] 88.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.1 [col] 10 [col] 91.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.6 [col] 6.7 [col] 86.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 73.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.5 [col] 4.1 [col] 90.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.1 [col] 2.9 [col] 93.10% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.7 [col] 2.3 [col] 82.61% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.36%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.13% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.18% [/table] Looks like the yearly race continues to be extremely close between Zingaling and me.

Author:	neo_wolf [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 2:58 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 20.0 [col] 18.5 [col] 91.89% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 10.0 [col] 15 [col] 66.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 14.0 [col] 13 [col] 92.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 89.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.4 [col] 5.3 [col] 79.25% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.5 [col] 2.9 [col] 79.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.30%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 85.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.39% [/table]

Author:	Vovanik [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:06 pm ]
Post subject:
88.46%

Author:	BJ [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:07 pm ]
Post subject:
89.76% with projections, and 91.18% with my own projections.

Author:	BJ [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:15 pm ]
Post subject:
the french man wrote: I like these projections better so I deleted mine: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.5 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.74% [col] -3.82%[row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.9 [col] 18.5 [col] 97.84% [col] 10.34%[row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 12.2 [col] 15 [col] 81.33% [col] -5.81%[row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.6 [col] 13 [col] 96.92% [col] 4.95%[row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 10.3 [col] 10 [col] 97.00% [col] -1.02%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [col] 2.81%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 5.7 [col] 5.3 [col] 92.45% [col] -1.99%[row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [col] 8.89%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.0 [col] 2.9 [col] 96.55% [col] 16.55%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [col] -0.35%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]94.45%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 91.40% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 91.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 96.45% [/table] Because of the different between the studio estimate and the actual number. You've gain a 3.05% in your average. great derby

Author:	asalem182 [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 17.1 [col] 19.5 [col] 87.69% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 17.8 [col] 18.5 [col] 96.22% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.4 [col] 15 [col] 76.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 12.8 [col] 13 [col] 98.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.8 [col] 10 [col] 98.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.8 [col] 5.3 [col] 71.70% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.2 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.9 [col] 75.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.8 [col] 2.3 [col] 78.26% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]87.53%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 89.59% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.15% [/table] Better than the last 2 weeks, although I was insanely high on Nanny McPhee and Hoodwinked.

Author:	paper [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:
With BoM's numbers, I think Hoodwinked drops a good .5 from projections, as well as Nanny and FD3. Sadly.

Author:	DP07 [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:49 pm ]
Post subject:
matatonio wrote: which is it?!? It will probably have 2.1m-2.2m this weekend. It had 0.46m Friday.

Author:	haerpinot [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:
DP07 wrote: It will probably have 2.1m-2.2m this weekend. It had 0.46m Friday. Damn, Hoodwinked & Nanny McPhee both managed to screw my derby over with their debut weeks and their (presumably)last weeks in the derby. Curse them both.

Author:	Shack [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 6:34 pm ]
Post subject:
I think I'm overanalyzing things too much. It all started about 3 weeks ago, when I for the first time worked harder and did all the calculations Friday-Saturday-Sunday individually. I did great, near the top of the list and easily my best of 2006. Then these last 2 weeks I've tried to do the same thing. BAD IDEA. Maybe it was beginners luck, or my mind is warped when it comes to doing it that way now. In any case, I've been much worse than I usually am. Next week I'm gonna take things eassyyyyyy...smoother. Just common knowledge and common sense.

Author:	zingy [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 6:40 pm ]
Post subject:
Calculating individual days' drops and increases has never worked. It's probably the worst way to predict for me.

Author:	trixster [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.6 [col] 19.5 [col] 89.23% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 19.1 [col] 18.5 [col] 96.76% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.5 [col] 15 [col] 76.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 14.2 [col] 13 [col] 90.77% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.5 [col] 10 [col] 95.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 6.7 [col] 6.7 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.6 [col] 5.3 [col] 75.47% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.7 [col] 4.1 [col] 90.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.6 [col] 2.9 [col] 75.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.4 [col] 2.3 [col] 95.65% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.57%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 88.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.70% [/table]

Author:	matatonio [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:21 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 21.2 [col] 19.5 [col] 91.28% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 20.8 [col] 18.5 [col] 87.57% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 13.6 [col] 15 [col] 90.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 13 [col] 13 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 8.6 [col] 10 [col] 86.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7.1 [col] 6.7 [col] 94.03% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6 [col] 5.3 [col] 86.79% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.1 [col] 4.1 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 3 [col] 2.3 [col] 69.57% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.21%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 92.38% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 87.10% [/table] i got screwed up by something new last week and now this week too?!?

Author:	DP07 [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:23 pm ]
Post subject:
Change that Hoodwinked projection!

Author:	matatonio [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:29 pm ]
Post subject:
which is it?!?

Author:	newfoundglorysp [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:06 pm ]
Post subject:
90.36

Author:	BJ [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Calculating individual days' drops and increases has never worked. It's probably the worst way to predict for me. works wonders for me I do it for the openers and the hold overs.

Author:	torrino [ Sat Feb 11, 2006 11:48 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Final Destination 3 [col] 20 [col] 19.5 [col] 97.44% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Pink Panther [col] 18.2 [col] 18.5 [col] 98.38% [row color=#ffCC66] 3 [col] Curious George [col] 11.2 [col] 15 [col] 74.67% [row color=#ffCC66] 4 [col] Firewall [col] 10.2 [col] 13 [col] 78.46% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] When a Stranger Calls [col] 9.3 [col] 10 [col] 93.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Big Momma's House 2 [col] 7 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Nanny McPhee [col] 6.1 [col] 5.3 [col] 84.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 4.0 [col] 4.1 [col] 97.56% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Hoodwinked [col] 3.3 [col] 2.9 [col] 86.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Something New [col] 2.3 [col] 2.3 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]90.61%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 87.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.87% [/table]

Page 1 of 3	All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/