World of KJ :: View topic - Scores with Projections

Jeff 42 wrote:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 13.5 [col] 18.9 [col] 71.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 15.5 [col] 17 [col] 91.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.5 [col] 13 [col] 96.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.4 [col] 12 [col] 86.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 8.6 [col] 8.7 [col] 98.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.8 [col] 7.6 [col] 97.37% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.2 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 4 [col] 3.8 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 3.8 [col] 2.9 [col] 68.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1.5 [col] 1 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.03%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 71.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 94.19% [/table]

Author:	zingy [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:	Scores with Projections
With Lecter's projections: Quote: 1. Hostel - $18.9 million 2. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe - $17 million 3. King Kong - $13 million 4. Fun with Dick and Jane - $12 million 5. Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - $8.7 million 6. Munich - $7.6 million 7. Memoirs of a Geisha - $6 million 8. Rumor Has It - $5.9 million 9. Brokeback Mountain - $5.4 million 10. The Ringer - $4.5 million - Casanova - $3.8 million - Grandma's Boy - $2.9 million - BloodRayne - $1 million [table][row]Movie[col]Actual[col]Prediction[col]Score[row]Hostel[col]$18,900,000 [col]$17,500,000 [col]92.59%[row]The Chronicles of Narnia[col]$17,000,000 [col]$15,400,000 [col]90.59%[row]King Kong[col]$13,000,000 [col]$14,400,000 [col]89.23%[row]Fun with Dick and Jane[col]$12,000,000 [col]$10,400,000 [col]86.67%[row]Cheaper by the Dozen 2[col]$8,700,000 [col]$8,700,000 [col]100.00%[row]Munich[col]$7,600,000 [col]$7,600,000 [col]100.00%[row]Rumor Has It[col]$5,900,000 [col]$5,600,000 [col]94.92%[row]Grandma's Boy[col]$2,900,000 [col]$4,800,000 [col]34.48%[row]Casanova[col]$3,800,000 [col]$4,000,000 [col]94.74%[row]Bloodrayne[col]$1,000,000 [col]$1,700,000 [col]30.00%[row]Overall[col]$90,800,000 [col]$90,100,000 [col]81.32%[/table]

Author:	Anonymous [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:
71.45% Second place so far.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:17 pm ]
Post subject:
73.90% Without BloodRayne and Grandma's Boy, my score is 89.87%

Author:	zingy [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:
Nebs wrote: 71.45% Second place so far. That's the kinda score that gets people eliminated from Box Office Pairs. We shoulda went with my Hostel prediction instead of the average. Heh.

Author:	paper [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Actual[col]Accuracy[col]% gain/loss[row color=#CCDDFF] 1 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 16.6 [col] 17 [col] 97.65% [col] 47.19%[row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] King Kong [col] 13.9 [col] 13 [col] 93.08% [col] 49.09%[row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 9 [col] 12 [col] 75.00% [col] 32.14%[row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 7.7 [col] 8.7 [col] 88.51% [col] 48.61%[row color=#ffCC66] 5 [col] Hostel [col] 14.5 [col] 18.9 [col] 76.72% [col] 1.72%[row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 5.6 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [col] 40.01%[row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Munich [col] 7.6 [col] 7.6 [col] 100.00% [col] 24.00%[row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 4.7 [col] 2.9 [col] 37.93% [col] -20.82%[row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Memoirs of a Geisha [col] 2.3 [col] 3.8 [col] 60.53% [col] 29.86%[row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Brokeback Mountain [col] 3.1 [col] 1 [col] 0.00% [col] -50.82%[/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (actual) [col]72.43%[row color=#CCDDFF] Estimated [col] 52.33% [row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 57.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 76.21% [/table]

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Scores with Projections http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=15795	Page 1 of 3

Author:	paper [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:24 pm ]
Post subject:
^Could be much worse, but hopefully a couple movie's actuals go my way

Author:	Anonymous [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:
Zingaling wrote: Nebs wrote: 71.45% Second place so far. That's the kinda score that gets people eliminated from Box Office Pairs. We shoulda went with my Hostel prediction instead of the average. Heh. 77%+ without Match Point. We'll get through.

Author:	neo_wolf [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:
You really think narnia can do 17mill lecter? i see 15-15.5mill. Where can i calculate these projections?

Author:	Ghostooze [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:
i think Glory Road sneaks are with Narnia

Author:	Rev [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:
70.9%

Author:	zingy [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:
xiayun is, like, almost guaranteed to win this weekend. His score is probably closer to 90%.

Author:	Jeff 42 [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 1:48 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 13.5 [col] 18.9 [col] 71.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 15.5 [col] 17 [col] 91.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.5 [col] 13 [col] 96.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.4 [col] 12 [col] 86.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 8.6 [col] 8.7 [col] 98.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.8 [col] 7.6 [col] 97.37% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.2 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 4 [col] 3.8 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 3.8 [col] 2.9 [col] 68.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1.5 [col] 1 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.03%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 71.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 94.19% [/table]

Author:	Ghostooze [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:
Jeff 42 wrote: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 13.5 [col] 18.9 [col] 71.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 15.5 [col] 17 [col] 91.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.5 [col] 13 [col] 96.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.4 [col] 12 [col] 86.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 8.6 [col] 8.7 [col] 98.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.8 [col] 7.6 [col] 97.37% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.2 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 4 [col] 3.8 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 3.8 [col] 2.9 [col] 68.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1.5 [col] 1 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.03%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 71.28% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 94.19% [/table] YOU BASTARD

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:
Chronicles do seem high. Even with Glory Road's preview, I'd give it a 4.0 IM max. Doesn't make me feel good to steal one this weekend: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 13.7 [col] 18.9 [col] 72.49% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 17 [col] 17 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.5 [col] 13 [col] 96.15% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.4 [col] 12 [col] 86.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 9 [col] 8.7 [col] 96.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.2 [col] 7.6 [col] 94.74% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 5.4 [col] 5.9 [col] 91.53% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 3.9 [col] 3.8 [col] 97.37% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 3.8 [col] 2.9 [col] 68.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 0.9 [col] 1 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.45%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 82.21% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 94.27% [/table]

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 3:37 pm ]
Post subject:
Hmm, looking at last year's multipliers and considering Glory Road sneaks, I don't see why Narnia should get a multiplier of less than 4.1 at least.

Author:	Igor [ Sun Jan 08, 2006 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:
I think, that the result of Bloodrayne cannot be set off!! Gray must remove Bloodrayne! Was 2000 Now 1000 cinemas it is not fair play !:) Somebody tell to Gray?)

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Author:	misutaa [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 2:49 pm ]
Post subject:
73.10% damn, without Grandma's Boy and Bloodrayne i have over 90%.

Author:	asalem182 [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 16.2 [col] 18.9 [col] 85.71% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 14.5 [col] 17 [col] 85.29% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 14.2 [col] 13 [col] 90.77% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.6 [col] 12 [col] 88.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 7.7 [col] 8.7 [col] 88.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.2 [col] 7.6 [col] 94.74% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 5.9 [col] 5.9 [col] 100.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 2.7 [col] 3.8 [col] 71.05% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 5.2 [col] 2.9 [col] 20.69% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 3 [col] 1 [col] 0.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]72.51%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 44.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 91.27% [/table] Ugh.

Author:	The Scottie [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:
77.05% I have a feeling the the Bloodrayne prediction is too low. I think it might go up today, along with Grandma's boy.

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:
Yeah, with the new BOM numbers, I'd give BloodRayne $1.2M, Grandma's Boy $3.0M. I'll still say $16.0 for Narnia. The others will stay the same. And with those projections, Jeff will win the weekend.

Author:	matatonio [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 3:39 pm ]
Post subject:
i got like 75 something %

Author:	Amos [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 14.8 [col] 18.9 [col] 78.31% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 16.7 [col] 17 [col] 98.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.7 [col] 13 [col] 94.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 11.1 [col] 12 [col] 92.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 10.6 [col] 8.7 [col] 78.16% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.6 [col] 7.6 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.2 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 3.1 [col] 3.8 [col] 81.58% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 4.5 [col] 2.9 [col] 44.83% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1 [col] 1 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]86.31%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 76.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.07% [/table]

Author:	Shack [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 5:53 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 14.4 [col] 18.9 [col] 76.19% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 16.2 [col] 17 [col] 95.29% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 14.7 [col] 13 [col] 86.92% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 11.6 [col] 12 [col] 96.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 11.7 [col] 8.7 [col] 65.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 8.6 [col] 7.6 [col] 86.84% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.5 [col] 5.9 [col] 89.83% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 3.4 [col] 3.8 [col] 89.47% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 5.4 [col] 2.9 [col] 13.79% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1.9 [col] 1 [col] 10.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]71.05%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 47.36% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.85% [/table] Bad. But I'm not that far off from most other people here, which is fine by me.

Author:	rolandka19 [ Sat Jan 07, 2006 9:59 pm ]
Post subject:
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 16.4 [col] 18.9 [col] 86.77% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 15.0 [col] 17 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 15.1 [col] 13 [col] 83.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 8.8 [col] 12 [col] 73.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 7.7 [col] 8.7 [col] 88.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 8.5 [col] 7.6 [col] 88.16% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 5.4 [col] 5.9 [col] 91.53% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 4.5 [col] 3.8 [col] 81.58% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 5.7 [col] 2.9 [col] 3.45% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 4.1 [col] 1 [col] 0.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]68.54%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 42.95% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.60% [/table] Bleh. My return to the Derby after 15 months begins with a whimper. Better luck next time I guess.

Author:	Jeff 42 [ Sun Jan 08, 2006 2:52 pm ]
Post subject:
With estimates: [table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Hostel [col] 13.5 [col] 20.1 [col] 67.16% [row color=#CCDDFF] 2 [col] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe [col] 15.5 [col] 15.4 [col] 99.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] King Kong [col] 13.5 [col] 12.5 [col] 92.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Fun With Dick and Jane [col] 10.4 [col] 12.2 [col] 85.25% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Cheaper by the Dozen 2 [col] 8.6 [col] 8.3 [col] 96.39% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Munich [col] 7.8 [col] 7.5 [col] 96.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Rumor Has It [col] 6.2 [col] 5.9 [col] 94.92% [row color=#ffCC66] 8 [col] Casanova [col] 4 [col] 4 [col] 100.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 9 [col] Grandma's Boy [col] 3.8 [col] 2.9 [col] 68.97% [row color=#ffCC66] 10 [col] Bloodrayne [col] 1.5 [col] 1.1 [col] 63.64% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]86.37%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 74.94% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 93.98% [/table] (There's no estimate for Bloodrayne, but based on BOM's Friday estimate it should be able to hit 1.1.)