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December 23-25 Predictions
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Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  December 23-25 Predictions
You know the drill....

Fun with Dick and Jane (5-day) - $41.5 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-day) - $27.8 million
Munich - $9.7 million
Memoirs of a Geisha - $8.6 million
Rumor has It (1-day) - $6.5 million
The Producers - $5.9 million
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
Cheaper by the Dozen surprises and takes the 5-day with $54.1m.
Author:  Libs [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
This is a really, really tricky weekend.

Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $32 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $31 million
Munich (3-Day) - $10 million
Memoirs of a Geisha (3-Day) - $9 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $6 million
The Ringer (3-Day) - $6 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2.5 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1 million
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
***MY EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK'S NEW RELEASES***

CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2 - 42.7 MILLION (3-Day)/60.7 MILLION (5-Day)
FUN WITH DICK AND JANE - 37.8 MILLION (3-Day)/55.9 MILLION (5-Day)
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA - 7 MILLION
RUMOR HAS IT - 7 MILLION (1-Day)
MUNICH - 6.3 MILLION
THE RINGER - 6.2 MILLION
WOLF CREEK - 2.6 MILLION (1-Day)
THE PRODUCERS - 2.5 MILLION (1-Day)


Yeah, I agree Libs, it is. I hate predicting these holiday weekends, especially Christmas when theaters close early Christmas Eve.
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah, this is going to be incredibly tricky. My work holiday has both Friday and Monday off, so both Friday and Sunday will be high, but Saturday will be quite low with all the theaters closing early on Christmas Eve. It's going to be as "V" shape as we're going to see for a weekend.
Author:  BJ [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
24m-26m for Narnia :biggrin:

30m+ for Kong :biggrin:
Author:  paper [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Two things that scare me:
-I don't think awareness is high enough for Dick and Jane
-Cheaper by the Dozen is bound to succeed seeing that it's Christmas and Steve Martin is in it with cute kids

I have a bad feeling Dick and Jane gets drilled by critics as well
Author:  jb007 [ Sat Dec 17, 2005 6:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
the french man wrote:
Two things that scare me:
-I don't think awareness is high enough for Dick and Jane
-Cheaper by the Dozen is bound to succeed seeing that it's Christmas and Steve Martin is in it with cute kids

I have a bad feeling Dick and Jane gets drilled by critics as well


Critics reviews for this will mean exactly jack. Meet the Fockers was 36% at RT and that movie made $279M.
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 1:38 pm ]
Post subject: 
Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $38 million
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $32 million
Munich (3-Day) - $9 million
Memoirs of the Geisha (3-Day) - $8 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $5 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1 million
Author:  misterglass [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:22 pm ]
Post subject: 
What I got so far:

Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (5-Day) - $28 - 30 million
Fun with Dick and Jane (5-Day) - $20 - 22 million
Memoirs of a Geisha (3-Day) - $8 million
Munich (3-Day) - $7 million
Rumor Has It (1-Day) - $5.5 million
The Ringer (3-Day) - $3.3 million
Wolf Creek (1-Day) - $2.8 million
The Producers (1-Day) - $1.2 million

Kong wins the 3-day weekend with around $27 - 28 million.

The thing to remember is that the first Cheaper opened in the weekend *after* Christmas, which is always crazy busy...this one is opening before Christmas when people are finishing school/work, travelling, and Christmas Day isn't a great day for family films. WIth that in mind, I think it will make less opening weekend and ultimately, less in total, than the original movie.

Fun with Dick and Jane is going to hit by the remake backlash regardless of Jim Carrey (who's basically doing his normal schtick).

Munich should do well despite a low theatre count (500-600)...Memoirs will start losing business in the major cities and this will be its last good weekend before Rumor has It and Family Stone eat up all its business.
Author:  Mr. Reynolds [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
for those that follow limited releases, can you guys comment on the prospects for BBM? I think it's staying at 69 until January 6th. What would the drops be if you look at trends from other limited releases. Please do NOT factor in the subject. Pretend it's a girl and guy.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:37 pm ]
Post subject: 
shades033 wrote:
The thing to remember is that the first Cheaper opened in the weekend *after* Christmas, which is always crazy busy...this one is opening before Christmas when people are finishing school/work, travelling, and Christmas Day isn't a great day for family films. WIth that in mind, I think it will make less opening weekend and ultimately, less in total, than the original movie.


You're wrong, it actually opened Christmas day.


And Sam, I doubt it will be adding many more theaters next weekend and that's fine. It should hold pretty well next weekend, though with all of the new movies it obviously won't be in the top 10, or even top 14.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
***MY EARLY PREDICTIONS***

1. CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2 - 42.7 MILLION (3-Day)/60.7 MILLION (5-Day)
2. FUN WITH DICK AND JANE - 37.8 MILLION (3-Day)/55.9 MILLION (5-Day)
3. KING KONG - 32.6 MILLION
4. THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA - 20.3 MILLION
5. THE FAMILY STONE - 10.1 MILLION
6. MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA - 7 MILLION
7. RUMOR HAS IT - 7 MILLION (1-Day)
8. MUNICH - 6.9 MILLION
9. THE RINGER - 6.2 MILLION
10. HARRY POTTER 4 - 4.1 MILLION
11. SYRIANA - 3 MILLION
12. WOLF CREEK - 2.6 MILLION (1-Day)
13. WALK THE LINE - 2.6 MILLION
14. THE PRODUCERS - 2.5 MILLION (1-Day)
Author:  misterglass [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:05 pm ]
Post subject: 
>>You're wrong, it actually opened Christmas day.<<

I meant that it's first weekend (the one where it made $28 million) was after Christmas (which was on a Thursday). I think it won't be able to do as well opening in the week before Christmas because people are generally busy and will wait until after Christmas to see movies.
Author:  Shack [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
Ahh, it's the weekend of death.
Author:  xiayun [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:12 pm ]
Post subject: 
BOM updated Brokeback Mountain's estimated count next week to 120+.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:45 pm ]
Post subject: 
You know what scares me the most? It's that if Cheaper by the Dozen 2 is a big success, they'll come up with the 3rd movie :cry:
Author:  misterglass [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 5:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
They should make the next 12 movies in the series all at once...
Author:  Animosity Reigns [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:10 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Yeah, this is going to be incredibly tricky. My work holiday has both Friday and Monday off, so both Friday and Sunday will be high, but Saturday will be quite low with all the theaters closing early on Christmas Eve. It's going to be as "V" shape as we're going to see for a weekend.


my whole chain is not closing early xmas eve since its a sat..only thing we are canceling are the midnights
Author:  Chuckster [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
Does anyone realize it is a four day holiday weekend?

No One is predciting it
Author:  xiayun [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:14 pm ]
Post subject: 
Animosity Reigns wrote:
xiayun wrote:
Yeah, this is going to be incredibly tricky. My work holiday has both Friday and Monday off, so both Friday and Sunday will be high, but Saturday will be quite low with all the theaters closing early on Christmas Eve. It's going to be as "V" shape as we're going to see for a weekend.


my whole chain is not closing early xmas eve since its a sat..only thing we are canceling are the midnights


Thanks for the info, Animosity. That's helpful. I still expect Saturday gross to be lower than both Friday and Sunday because most people don't go out on Christmas Eve, but having theaters open leaves the option open and just makes it more unpredictable.
Author:  paper [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Quote:
the french man wrote:
Two things that scare me:
-I don't think awareness is high enough for Dick and Jane
-Cheaper by the Dozen is bound to succeed seeing that it's Christmas and Steve Martin is in it with cute kids

I have a bad feeling Dick and Jane gets drilled by critics as well


Critics reviews for this will mean exactly jack. Meet the Fockers was 36% at RT and that movie made $279M.


Fockers benefitted from great WOM after MTP.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:21 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
BOM updated Brokeback Mountain's estimated count next week to 120+.


I'm going to go with 2.4 Million next weekend then (depending on the final theater count), it would have been more than this weekend's gross except the gross for Saturday will be smaller because theaters close early so I'm going with around what it did this weekend.
Author:  zingy [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
the french man wrote:
Quote:
the french man wrote:
Two things that scare me:
-I don't think awareness is high enough for Dick and Jane
-Cheaper by the Dozen is bound to succeed seeing that it's Christmas and Steve Martin is in it with cute kids

I have a bad feeling Dick and Jane gets drilled by critics as well


Critics reviews for this will mean exactly jack. Meet the Fockers was 36% at RT and that movie made $279M.


Fockers benefitted from great WOM after MTP.


The trailer helped Fockers, I think.

I remember not liking the trailer at all. It didn't show any of the funny scenes of the film, but once I saw the movie, I thought it was hilarious. I think that happened with a lot of people.
Author:  DP07 [ Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Fun with Dick and Jane - 29m 5-day, 19m 3-day, 36m 6-day
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 - 34m 5-day, 22m 3-day, 43m 6-day
Munich - 7.1m 3-day, 9.7m 4-day
Memoirs of a Geisha - 10.7m 3-day, 14.5m 4-day
Rumor Has It - 6m 1-day, 12m 2-day
The Ringer - 4.5m 3-day, 6m 4-day
Wolf Creek - 5m 1-day, 9m 2-day
The Producers - $680,000 1-day, 1.4m 2-day

King Kong - 30m 3-day, 41m 4-day
Narnia - 16m 3-day, 22.5m 4-day
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