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SCORES with Actuals (from 3rd page)
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=14402		 Page 1 of 4
Author:  JMorphin [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:47 pm ]
Post subject:  SCORES with Actuals (from 3rd page)
used xiayun's:

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100 [col] 95 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20 [col] 23.5 [col] 85.11% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Saw 2 [col] 4.4 [col] 4.0 [col] 90% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.3 [col] 2.4 [col] 62.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.6 [col] 5 [col] 68.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Derailed [col] 7.2 [col] 7 [col] 97.14% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Pride & Prejudice [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.8 [col] 4.2 [col] 85.71% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15 [col] 13.5 [col] 88.89% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Jarhead [col] 4.6 [col] 4.9 [col] 93.88% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]85.6%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 89.92% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.52% [/table]

Damn Zorro! ;)

Edited: with new projections
Author:  misutaa [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
harry potter will not make 100m.
Author:  Rev [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97.2 [col] 95 [col] 97.68% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20.5 [col] 23 [col] 89.13% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.6 [col] 13.2 [col] 81.82% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.2 [col] 6.7 [col] 92.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 7.4 [col] 5.1 [col] 54.90% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 7.0 [col] 4.8 [col] 54.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 6.8 [col] 4.3 [col] 41.86% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.7 [col] 4 [col] 82.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.4 [col] 2.4 [col] 58.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] P&P [col] 3.0 [col] 2 [col] 50.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]70.29%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 93.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 64.51% [/table]

DAMN :disgust: holdovers :cry:
Author:  Amos [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: SCORES with projections
EDIT: BOM Numbers

[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100.3 [col] 95 [col] 94.42% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 22.9 [col] 23 [col] 99.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.1 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.0 [col] 5.1 [col] 82.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.7 [col] 4.8 [col] 81.25% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.4 [col] 4.3 [col] 97.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4 [col] 4 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 2.9 [col] 2.4 [col] 79.17% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride & Prejudice [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]91.46%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 96.99% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 90.08% [/table]
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:55 pm ]
Post subject: 
BOM numbers came, so maybe better to wait for new projections.
Author:  misutaa [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 96.7 [col] 95 [col] 98.21% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 21.3 [col] 23 [col] 92.61% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.8 [col] 13.2 [col] 80.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.8 [col] 6.7 [col] 98.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 7.2 [col] 5.1 [col] 58.82% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 6 [col] 4.8 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Saw II [col] 4.5 [col] 4.5 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 5.2 [col] 4.3 [col] 79.07% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.2 [col] 2.4 [col] 66.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Prime [col] 2.3 [col] 2 [col] 85.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]83.42%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 95.41% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.42% [/table]
Author:  misutaa [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
mine is with the new projections made by xiayun.
Author:  jb007 [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:56 pm ]
Post subject: 
Mr. Sparkle wrote:
harry potter will not make 100m.


With BOM numbers, I agree.
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
88.81% with xiayun's new projections.
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sorry all, Saw II should be projected at $4.0M with the new BOM number.
Author:  misutaa [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 3:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Sorry all, Saw II should be projected at $4.0M with the new BOM number.


NO!! :tongue:
Author:  Amos [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:00 pm ]
Post subject: 
Mr. Sparkle wrote:
xiayun wrote:
Sorry all, Saw II should be projected at $4.0M with the new BOM number.


NO!! :tongue:


Yay :biggrin:
Author:  Anonymous [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
Sorry all, Saw II should be projected at $4.0M with the new BOM number.


88.51% then. :nonono:
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:03 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 99 [col] 95 [col] 95.79% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 25 [col] 23 [col] 91.30% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.94% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.9 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.7 [col] 5.1 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 6.1 [col] 4.8 [col] 72.92% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Saw II [col] 4.4 [col] 4 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.2 [col] 4.3 [col] 97.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3 [col] 2.4 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Prime [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]89.19%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 93.55% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 88.10% [/table]

I'm hoping my last second change of 22.8 to 25.0 for WTL (and to a much less extent, the change of 98.2 to 99 for HP4) doesn't come back and haunt me.
Author:  matatonio [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:08 pm ]
Post subject: 
Derby
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 99.1 [col] 95 [col] 95.68% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 22.9 [col] 23 [col] 99.57% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 15.7 [col] 13.2 [col] 81.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 97.01% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.4 [col] 5.1 [col] 74.51% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.6 [col] 4.8 [col] 83.33% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 5.3 [col] 4.3 [col] 76.74% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.6 [col] 4 [col] 85.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.1 [col] 2.4 [col] 70.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride and Prejudice [col] 2.5 [col] 2 [col] 75.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]83.87%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 97.62% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 80.44% [/table]

:glare: DAMN YOU holdovers!! :mad:
Author:  The Scottie [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:18 pm ]
Post subject: 
88.71%.

Going low on the holdovers really paid off this time.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 102.6 [col] 95 [col] 92.00% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 23.5 [col] 23 [col] 97.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.4 [col] 13.2 [col] 90.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.5 [col] 6.7 [col] 88.06% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.3 [col] 5.1 [col] 96.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.9 [col] 4.8 [col] 77.08% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.3 [col] 4.3 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.7 [col] 4 [col] 82.50% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.1 [col] 2.4 [col] 70.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.2 [col] 2 [col] 90.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.53%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.91% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 86.93% [/table]

Arr... :nonono:

If I didn't have such a shotty memory, and I was actually in the derby this week, I would've been one of the top contenders.
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
92.45% for Jeff, and 91.45% for Samweis. Congrats, guys!
Author:  Amos [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
xiayun wrote:
92.45% for Jeff


:cry:
Author:  Jeff 42 [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 100 [col] 95 [col] 94.74% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20 [col] 23 [col] 86.96% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.2 [col] 13.2 [col] 92.42% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.4 [col] 6.7 [col] 95.52% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 5.7 [col] 5.1 [col] 88.24% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.3 [col] 4.8 [col] 89.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.1 [col] 4.3 [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 3.6 [col] 4 [col] 90.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 2.6 [col] 2.4 [col] 91.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Pride and Prejudice [col] 2 [col] 2 [col] 100.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]92.45%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 90.85% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 92.85% [/table]

:shades:

Thanks, xiayun! :smile:
Author:  paper [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:39 pm ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97 [col] 95 [col] 97.89% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 20.9 [col] 23 [col] 90.87% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.3 [col] 13.2 [col] 91.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 7.3 [col] 6.7 [col] 91.04% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.1 [col] 5.1 [col] 80.39% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.5 [col] 4.8 [col] 85.42% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.5 [col] 4.3 [col] 95.35% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.6 [col] 4 [col] 85.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3.2 [col] 2.4 [col] 66.67% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.4 [col] 2 [col] 80.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]86.43%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 94.38% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 84.44% [/table]


Trust me, it's an improvement and I'll take it...
Author:  paper [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:40 pm ]
Post subject: 
Damn you Zorro!
Author:  xiayun [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 6:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
With holdovers dropping big, the score should favor us KJers over random derby players.
Author:  newfoundglorysp [ Sat Nov 19, 2005 7:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
87.54 at least this is way better then the last week.
Author:  asalem182 [ Sun Nov 20, 2005 3:34 am ]
Post subject: 
[table][row color=#0f7a9e]Rank[col]Film[col]Predicted[col]Estimate[col]Est. Accuracy[row color=#ffCC66] 1 [col] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire [col] 97.6 [col] 95 [col] 97.26% [row color=#ffCC66] 2 [col] Walk the Line [col] 23.5 [col] 23 [col] 97.83% [row color=#CCDDFF] 3 [col] Chicken Little [col] 14.1 [col] 13.2 [col] 93.18% [row color=#CCDDFF] 4 [col] Derailed [col] 6.7 [col] 6.7 [col] 100.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 5 [col] Zathura [col] 6.2 [col] 5.1 [col] 78.43% [row color=#CCDDFF] 6 [col] Jarhead [col] 5.3 [col] 4.8 [col] 89.58% [row color=#CCDDFF] 7 [col] Get Rich or Die Tryin' [col] 4.9 [col] 4.3 [col] 86.05% [row color=#CCDDFF] 8 [col] Saw II [col] 4.8 [col] 4 [col] 80.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 9 [col] The Legend of Zorro [col] 3 [col] 2.4 [col] 75.00% [row color=#CCDDFF] 10 [col] Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story [col] 2.3 [col] 2 [col] 85.00% [/table][table][row color=#0f7a9e][col]Average[row color=#CCDDFF] OVERALL (estimate) [col]88.23%[row color=#ffCC66] New Release [col] 97.54% [row color=#CCDDFF] Still in Theater [col] 85.91% [/table]

Hopefully that will be enough for a place inside the top 50.
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