There's nothing like finding a few suckers to take a bet, and I've found two in the clueless forms of Zingaling and Dr. Lecter.

Taking down the combined forces of these two is something that I really look forward to doing. I've tried to convince them by simply expecting them to conform, but they wouldn't have it, and it's led to this. I say that Walk the Line will gross 100 million, and they're in denial, so to make it a little more interesting, we upped the stakes, and the loser will have to see a movie (to be announced later) of the winner's choice on opening weekend, and has to write up a full review of it for everybody at the forums.

Those are the only two that I'll be betting with on this particular film, but I want to know about the rest of you, too. I'll be presenting my list of reason for this, much like I've done in the past, and I'll keep track of those who want to join the 100 million Walk the Line club. Stay tuned to this thread, because I'll be building a big case, and feel free to try to present whatever case, for or against, that Walk the Line won't/will make 100 million.

Join the group of winners below, and we'll all laugh about it when Zingy and Lecter have to watch and review The Princess Diaries 3 or whatever undesired movie I send them off to.

The 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Maverikk
2. dolcevita
3. Libs
4. Killuminati510
5. BJ
6. MovieDude
7. newfoundglorysp
8. the man from fran...ce
9. insein-darko
10. rusty
11. Maximus
12. Flava'd?
13. Moolah
14. jb007
15. nghtvsn
16. Squee
17. thompsoncory
18. Mr. X
19. andaroo
20. Mr. Sparkle
21. xiayun
22. RogueCommander
23. torrino

The Under 100 Million Dollar Club:

1. Zingaling
2. Dr. Lecter
3. Shack
4. matatonio
5. revolutions
6. bABA
7. Animosity Reigns
8. Lucky
9. DP07
10. The Dark Shape
11. Positive Jon
12. Archie Gates

This one is an easy bet to me, heh.

I'm for under 100 mil. I don't see it passing 100, I see it inching past Ray, but not 100.

BTW, you can't back out of that bet, heh.

I also don't expect more than 5 people to join it. But kudos, Mav, it's your most daring prediction thus far.

Nah...Sith shattering those opening records was much more daring, but I commend you on your attempt at trying to scare people off from something that'll soon be so obvious. I also realize that some people will be late joiners. Always is a large group who wait until the consensus comes in. Stay tuned, as I'll get more than 5 to agree. Hell, after the case I build, you and Zingy will probably join, but the bet still stands.

dont see it passing Ray at all, not even close!
Put me in under!

Sith was definitely not as daring as I saw others predicting it as well, I think. $100+ million for Walk the Line? Besides you, BJ and Dolce, I know of no one who would predict that.

Oh and the good thing that I can't lose that bet. No matter how much this movie makes, heh.

I recall being called crazy by just about everyone over Sith. That was definitely not a case where more than 3 people, just like now, were in agreement, but again, nice try. I don't think people are going to be scared off. Even you admitted that you don't know how Johnny Cash's popularity compares to Ray Charles' in North America. I do know.

Why can't you lose the bet? Trust me, I'll be sending you off to a movie that you won't want to see, much less review.

Trust me, such a movie doesn't exist. I am one of those who sees everything and I would never completely object to seeing something. It's not like if I see something I won't be able to see something else. I have enough money for my movie visits.

I saw The Princess Diaries 2 in theatres. I saw Alone in the Dark in theatres. I would even see Gigli in theatres if it was ever released anywhere near here, heh.

i can see this passing ray because, even if jamie foxx had an oscar-winning performace, phoenix is still a much bigger draw than him...so i could see walk the line make as much as 80 million with very good reviews, but i really can't see it crossing 100 unless it's a front runner in the oscars...you'll have to count me out of the 100 million dollar club

So. That makes three more to go?

i see this topping $80 mill at the most.
Ray couldn't do it so i doubt this one will.

UNDER!

First of all, there is some serious underpredicting going on here. Selena made 35 million even, so the 40-50 million predictions I've been hearing are smoking something harder than the 500 million Sith club.

Furthermore, Ray is not the only music biopic ever, so I'm wondering why people keep harkening to it. A much better comparison would be Coal miner's Daughter with Sissey Spacek. A music biopic about another country singer, Loretta Lynne. That Loretta Lynne was young and healthy in 1980 when it was made is a jumping off point. it didn't even have the death nostalgia involved, and it still almost made as much as Ray. 67 Million to 74 Million. And that was 1980. Lets think of theatre count, ticket prices, and you'll start to get an idea of how many people went and saw Coal Miner's Daughter. Also, it was released in March. So even though Spacek won an Oscar for it, its not like the movie's box office legs were prolonged. Though it did get a boost in rentals I bet. Had the movie been released in November that year, you can be sure it would have grossed as much if not more than Ray.

People here keep talking about urban community numbers while forgetting about rural and regional suburban consumption. I think after Passion of Christ people would realize its the movies that actually appeal to everyone in between the big cities that end up surprising. C'mon, Dukes of Hazzard at 100 Million for goodness sakes! I think ther'e going to be some massive amounts of repeat viewing from certain populations, and I'm not necessarily saying I like for what reasons. But it's going to be there. The fanbase for country music will see this three weekends in a row regardless of quality. The fact that the stars are well known (more well known than Foxx when Ray was released) that there is a big female lead and a love story built in (unlike either Ray or Coal Miner's Daughter) and the fact that in these heated anti-war times Cash was incredibly vocal against Vietnam are all going to be big factors. It'll hit 100 Million for sure. It's take good legs, and won't break that number by too much, but it will reach it.

I'll join, mostly because I want Lecter to be wrong.

hehe...you know it's going to happen, too, but the Lecter being wrong part makes it all the better.

Oh, incase I'm right I'll bump that one thread dedicated to you and Libs again.

Preach it, sister, preach it. I'm constructing my own post as I type this. (needed to catch my breath)

Yeah, I just hope the bus loads of people that are going to come watch this because Cash was "saved" through
finding God" also pick up on the part where he was open minded, never tried to convert someone, and put general humanity and human rights in front of his own personal salvation. Doubt it, but here's hoping.

I was hoping that some of the rest of you wouldn't need convincing, but I can see you do, and I don't think it's a coincidence that many of those names not joining are the same that have been proven wrong in the past, or were late joiners when the consensus made their minds up. Ok, since you need a bit of convincing, I'll give it to you.

First, Ray Charles is hot NOW, but was not before Jamie Foxx brought him to life, and the selective amnesia that always runs through these forums is once again at work. Jamie Foxx was not any kind of draw, but biopics of well known celebrities have been known to be. Johnny Cash was every bit as popular as Ray Charles ever was, and unlike Charles, Cash put out new music that reached multiple generations. It surprised me more than anybody, but that makes it no less true.

Walk the Line is sure to get better reviews than Ray, and is sure to go much further in the Oscar race, and is one of the frontrunners to win it all. Reese Witherspoon has many fans that will come out to support her, and yes, she's a box office draw and much moreso than Jamie Foxx, as Stealth proved. The movie will also be more box office friendly, as it's not about blacks, which is a sad but true reality. Would anybody claim that Loretta Lynn was ultra popular? None of you would have until the following year after Coal Miner's Daughter came out, and then I'm sure you would have "known it all along" just like you do with Ray Charles. When adjusted, the story of Loretta Lynn blows Ray's gross away. More than doubles it. Unadjusted, it still almost made as much. The Johnny Cash story is something better judged by the success of Coal Miner's Daughter, as they both have the same things going for them, both in celebration of an American icon in country music, and as an Oscar caliber picture and performances where the actors do their own singing, a novelty, for sure.

Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix are both locks, and the clear favorites to win Best Actress and Best Actor. That's twice the firepower that Jamie Foxx's performance was able to muster. Together, they will also bring in the female demographic...excuse me...the very important female demographic that too many of you guys here dismiss because it's not a group you belong to. The romance/love story is something Ray didn't have going for it. You guys are also downplaying the country music fanbase because you don't belong to it. Not the best thing to do, if accuracy is your goal.

I'm stopping there for now, because I want to give you little bits at a time, and not put all my points in one post, and I do hope y'all reconsider. The Oscars alone is going to carry this thing to the promised land after all those other factors have taken care of business. That's a no brainer.

Hell im in, I can see it getting over 3000 theaters, it's demo will be more wide then Ray i'd say, and it's week to week drops will be better because of the demo issue ( Ray increased over 400 theaters its 2nd week out and still dropped over 30% ) Not to mention it has bigger stars in it.

lmao u know what would be freaking hillarious. if a sorry movie like Get Rich or Die Tryin'
makes more then Walk the Line.

It will.

then we'd have to put Mav & Dol on suicide watches.

assuming GRDT falls short of $100 mill. fucking better.