Final Update:

Team America: World Police 1132, B+

Shall We Dance? 455, C+

The grade is a good sign for Team America's internal multiplier and may help its overall leg as well, although I still expect it to drop relatively fast. I'm projecting 5.3-6.9M opening day for Team America and 2.7-3.3M for Shall We Dance.

Yahoo definetley captured how the new movies would perform. Nice projections, xiayun. You guys said Team America would underperform and Shall We Dance would do good.

For today (Saturday, 3:30PM, PST):
Team America: World Police 2583, +1451, B

Shall We Dance? 1209, +754, B-

I think it's probably worth it to post the all-time list. This was most recently updated Saturday, October 9. Exactly a week ago.

All-time Rankings:
# of Reviews Box Office (In Millions) Ratio
1 ) The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 97564 $377.027325 258.77
2 ) The Passion of The Christ 91900 $37024604 248.19
3 ) Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl 87140 $305.413918 285.32
4 ) Spider-Man 2 55228 $371.795119 148.54
5 ) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 50636 $249.151025 203.23
6 ) Fahrenheit 9/11 50143 $119.114517 420.96
7 ) Shrek 2 46903 $439.823837 106.64
8 ) The Matrix Revolutions 38349 $139.270910 275.36
9 ) Troy 31735 $133.378256 237.93
10 ) Bad Boys II 29310 $138.608444 211.46
11 ) The Village 28271 $113.337128 249.44
12 ) The Day After Tomorrow 27731 $186.698552 148.53
13 ) Finding Nemo 27078 $339.714978 79.71
14 ) Van Helsing 25501 $120.177084 212.20
15 ) Scary Movie 3 25452 $110.003217 231.38
16 ) Mean Girls 25439 $86.050784 295.63
17 ) Freddy Vs Jason 24710 $82.622655 299.07
18 ) Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines 24321 $150.371112 161.74
19 ) The Last Samurai 22649 $111.127263 203.81
20 ) I, Robot 22569 $143.692290 157.06
21 ) 50 First Dates 20239 $120.870628 167.44
22 ) The Bourne Supremacy 19809 $173.457530 114.20
23 ) Kill Bill Volume 1 19504 $70.099045 278.23
24 ) Alien Vs Predator 19480 $79.712131 244.38
25 ) The Texas Chainsaw Massacre 19341 $80.571655 240.05
26 ) Cheaper By The Dozen 19043 $138.614544 137.38
27 ) American Wedding 18624 $104.565114 178.11
28 ) The Butterfly Effect 18084 $57.938693 312.12
29 ) The Notebook 17544 $80.396879 218.22
30 ) S.W.A.T. 17317 $116.934650 148.09
31 ) Elf 17304 $173.398518 99.79
32 ) Dodgeball 17255 $114.258968 151.02
33 ) Freaky Friday 17167 $110.230332 155.74
34 ) You Got Served 17158 $40.302351 425.73
35 ) Kill Bill Volume 2 16160 $66.208183 244.08
36 ) The Princess Diaries 2 15998 $93.874075 170.42
37 ) The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen 15695 $66.465204 236.14
38 ) School of Rock 15413 $81.261177 189.67
39 ) White Chicks 15234 $69.897980 217.95
40 ) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 15207 $339.789881 44.75
41 ) A Cinderella Story 15175 $51.360209 295.46
42 ) Underworld 14316 $51.970690 275.46
43 ) The Matrix Reloaded 14262 $281.576461 50.65
44 ) Resident Evil: Apocalypse 13988 $47.757786 292.89
45 ) The Dawn of the Dead 13531 $58.990765 229.37
46 ) 13 Going on 30 13471 $57.139723 235.76
47 ) Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World 13325 $93.927920 141.86
48 ) Seabiscuit 13309 $120.277854 110.65
49 ) Anchorman 13145 $85.224248 154.24
50 ) Hero 12357 $51.541397 239.75
51 ) Man on Fire 12072 $77.911774 154.94
52 ) Big Fish 12061 $66.809693 180.53
53 ) The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 12003 $313.364114 38.30
54 ) Along Came Polly 11869 $88.097164 134.73
55 ) Napoleon Dynamite 11853 $38.411000 308.58
56 ) Catwoman 11768 $40.141128 293.17
57 ) Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed 11720 $84.198209 139.20
58 ) The Cronicles of Riddick 11662 $57.712751 202.07
59 ) Gigli 11632 $6.087542 1910.79
60 ) Gothika 11612 $59.624069 194.75
61 ) Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle 11598 $100.830111 115.03
62 ) Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde 11597 $90.186328 128.59
63 ) Bruce Almighty 11562 $242.829261 47.61
64 ) Cold Mountain 11440 $95.636509 119.62
65 ) Collateral 11327 $99.580042 113.75
66 ) Hellboy 11297 $59.431508 190.08
67 ) The Cat In The Hat 11125 $101.091659 110.05
68 ) Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life 11118 $65.660196 169.33
69 ) King Arthur 10906 $51.870484 210.25
70 ) Hulk 10892 $132.177234 82.40
71 ) 28 Days Later 10784 $45.064915 239.30
72 ) Starsky & Hutch 10771 $88.219291 122.09
73 ) Spy Kids 3D: Game Over 10705 $111.761982 95.78
74 ) Honey 10635 $30.272254 351.31
75 ) Secret Window 10627 $47.958031 221.59
76 ) Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen 10577 $29.309763 360.87
77 ) Mystic River 10430 $90.135191 115.72
78 ) Peter Pan 10385 $48.439890 214.39
79 ) Once Upon a Time in Mexico 10136 $56.359780 179.84
80 ) Bad Santa 10123 $60.060328 168.55
81 ) The Punisher 10055 $33.781011 297.65

*movies in italic were released before Yahoo's current grading system, so they have a disadvantage. You can see this in their low ratios.

Saturday numbers:

Team America: World Police 3549 total, 2417 Saturday, B

Shall We Dance? 1601 total, 1146 Saturday, B-

xia---your pm box *ahem* :wink:

Saw it, dolce. Sorry I had been busy the last couple of days except for in the morning. I'll get the thread up.

The Yahoo thread over at BOM disappeared. :x It's such a mess over there.

Glad to see ROTK is number one.

The system once again shows it's reliability. Good work, guys.

With actuals:
Team America: World Police 1132 $4,470,531 253.31

Shall We Dance? 455 $3,718,000 122.38

My initial hunch of 110-130 ratio for Shall We Dance is on the mark, although I did increase it when doing the final projection since I didn't think it would earn as high as 3.7M on Friday. DP07's intuition of high ratio for Team America is also very much correct. The late night surge by it did throw us off, and I think people buying other tickets and sneaking into it helped to increase the ratio. Still overall, a good week that pointed out the direction of two new releases.

Friday 10/15
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Team America: World Police 0 1056 1056
2 ) Shall We Dance? 0 425 425
3 ) Friday Night Lights 3835 4154 319
4 ) Shark Tale 7890 8205 315
5 ) Ladder 49 6030 6248 218
6 ) Taxi 2734 2942 208
7 ) The Forgotten 6413 6576 163
8 ) Resident Evil: Apocalypse 14633 14764 131
9 ) Raise Your Voice 4373 4493 120
10 ) Shaun of the Dead 2561 2660 99
11 ) Napoleon Dynamite 12280 12374 94
12 ) Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 6625 6708 83

Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Team America: World Police N/A N/A
Shall We Dance? N/A N/A
Friday Night Lights 222 43.69%
Shark Tale 220 43.18%
Ladder 49 115 89.57%
Taxi 141 47.52%
The Forgotten 100 63.00%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 102 28.43%
Raise Your Voice 93 29.03%
Shaun of the Dead 54 83.33%
Napoleon Dynamite 63 49.21%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 62 33.87%

7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Friday Night Lights 738 -56.78%
Taxi 482 -56.85%
Raise Your Voice 692 -82.66%

Good call on Shall We Dance.

For Team America, I decided to lower my ratio projections to a large extent because of the implications of the 4 hour ratio. However, that turned out to be misleading. It had a 4-hour ratio in the 80s, something that has happened to various films before. I suppose it shouldn't really be suprising given that this film had so many factors indicating a high ratio: R rating (people sneaking in), young demographic, internet savy audience, relatively low theater count, and controversy. 250 isn't that high of a ratio, all things considered.

Saturday 10/16
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Team America: World Police 1056 3522 2466
2 ) Shall We Dance? 425 1596 1171
3 ) Shark Tale 8205 8891 686
4 ) Friday Night Lights 4154 4731 577
5 ) Raise Your Voice 4493 4891 398
6 ) Ladder 49 6248 6544 296
7 ) Taxi 2942 3220 278
8 ) The Forgotten 6576 6800 224
9 ) Napoleon Dynamite 12374 12500 126
10 ) Resident Evil: Apocalypse 14764 14883 119
11 ) Shaun of the Dead 2660 2754 94
12 ) Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 6708 6798 90

Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Team America: World Police 1056 133.52%
Shall We Dance? 425 175.53%
Shark Tale 315 117.78%
Friday Night Lights 319 80.88%
Raise Your Voice 120 231.67%
Ladder 49 218 35.78%
Taxi 208 33.65%
The Forgotten 163 37.42%
Napoleon Dynamite 94 34.04%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 131 -9.16%
Shaun of the Dead 99 -5.05%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 83 8.43%

7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Napoleon Dynamite 135 -6.67%
The Forgotten 270 -17.04%
Shark Tale 835 -17.84%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 148 -19.59%
Ladder 49 371 -20.22%
Shaun of the Dead 127 -25.98%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 141 -36.17%
Friday Night Lights 1101 -47.59%
Taxi 1060 -73.77%
Raise Your Voice 2669 -85.09%

DP,
your pm box.

-Dolce

Sunday 10/17
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Team America: World Police 3522 4814 1292
2 ) Shark Tale 8891 9303 412
3 ) Friday Night Lights 4731 5114 383
4 ) Shall We Dance? 1596 1953 357
5 ) Raise Your Voice 4891 5198 307
6 ) Ladder 49 6544 6835 291
7 ) Taxi 3220 3487 267
8 ) The Forgotten 6800 7045 245
9 ) Napoleon Dynamite 12500 12595 95
10 ) Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 6798 6886 88
11 ) Shaun of the Dead 2754 2822 68
12 ) Resident Evil: Apocalypse 14883 14950 67

Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Team America: World Police 2466 -47.61%
Shark Tale 686 -39.94%
Friday Night Lights 577 -33.62%
Shall We Dance? 1171 -69.51%
Raise Your Voice 398 -22.86%
Ladder 49 296 -1.69%
Taxi 278 -3.96%
The Forgotten 224 9.38%
Napoleon Dynamite 126 -24.60%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 90 -2.22%
Shaun of the Dead 94 -27.66%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 119 -43.70%

7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
The Forgotten 247 -0.81%
Napoleon Dynamite 118 -19.49%
Ladder 49 380 -23.42%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 118 -25.42%
Shark Tale 565 -27.08%
Raise Your Voice 446 -31.17%
Taxi 460 -41.96%
Shaun of the Dead 129 -47.29%
Friday Night Lights 802 -52.24%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 173 -61.27%

Monday 10/18
Beginning of Day End of Day Daily Total
1 ) Team America: World Police 4814 5549 735
2 ) Shark Tale 9303 9587 284
3 ) Shall We Dance? 1953 2195 242
4 ) Friday Night Lights 5114 5346 232
5 ) Ladder 49 6835 7002 167
6 ) Raise Your Voice 5198 5339 141
7 ) The Forgotten 7045 7179 134
8 ) Taxi 3487 3619 132
9 ) Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 6886 6954 68
10 ) Napoleon Dynamite 12595 12660 65
11 ) Shaun of the Dead 2822 2870 48
12 ) Resident Evil: Apocalypse 14950 14989 39

Previous Day Daily Increase/Decrease
Team America: World Police 1292 -43.11%
Shark Tale 412 -31.07%
Shall We Dance? 357 -32.21%
Friday Night Lights 383 -39.43%
Ladder 49 291 -42.61%
Raise Your Voice 307 -54.07%
The Forgotten 245 -45.31%
Taxi 267 -50.56%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 88 -22.73%
Napoleon Dynamite 95 -31.58%
Shaun of the Dead 68 -29.41%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 67 -41.79%

7 days eariler Weekly Increase/Decrease
Napoleon Dynamite 73 -10.96%
The Forgotten 179 -25.14%
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow 96 -29.17%
Shark Tale 408 -30.39%
Raise Your Voice 209 -32.54%
Ladder 49 276 -39.49%
Taxi 261 -49.43%
Shaun of the Dead 96 -50.00%
Friday Night Lights 477 -51.36%
Resident Evil: Apocalypse 133 -70.68%

Sticky? Wow, thanks.

Here at KJ, great work is appreciated. Therefore, it is stickied. :wink:

I made a short little FAQ in the first post. I remember how some posters new to the thread would often seem to ask similar questions.

Xiayun, can you think of any others that were often asked? I'm probably forgetting some.

The definition of ratio is the most asked question. That should be enough for now. We could also provide information on the ratio patterns corresponding to genre, theater count, grade, etc. that we have observed so far. If you have time, posting all the hourly numbers here again will be nice since I like to compare with older similar movies at certain hours on Friday to check the pace.

Thanks for stickying the thread!

HEY! GIVE ME CREDIT FOR IT. DAMNIT.

Stop taking advantage of me. And stop trying to appeal as a simple man. Stickying such a thread is MUCH more complex than just clicking a button. Oh, wait. No, it isn't.

Yes, it is true. torrino was the one who stickied the thread. I took credit for it because I'm cooler. For that, I don't apologize. Instead, I'm going to unsticky it and re-sticky it and take the credit. :wink:

Thanks,

Zingaling

The Grudge 14, +14, B+
Surviving Christmas 2, +2, B+

Ratio predictions:

The Grudge isn't that highly anticipated, and with its theater count, I expect it to behave similarly to The Forgotten, except that Sarah Michelle Gellar attracts more internet-savvy viewers than Moore. So 115-135.

There is much less buzz about Surviving Christmas, so it should behave close to a normal comedy. Jersey Girl had a ratio of 234, but that has romance, which increases the ratio. This should be more similar to Anchorman with a lower theater count. 150-180.