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Harry Potter & the Goblet of Fire - $290,013,036
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=10443		 Page 4 of 41
Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:37 am ]
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This is the most rational club ever. It should have 300+ members.

Sign me up.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:36 am ]
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Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $95+ million opening weekend club memebers:

Dr. Lecter
The Dark Shape
Insomniacdude
Flava'd‡
publicenemy#1
xiayun
Mike Q.
Samweis Gamdschie
baumer72
rhyno
Jeff 42
Eagle
Author:  baumer72 [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:50 am ]
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Jeff 42 wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
I think the last film will have the same effect that Reloaded had on Revolutions. The die hards will still flock to it but it won't do that well at the box office. Since I am lazy as well, I think the last film opened huge but ended with 247?? So I think you'll see a similar pattern with this one. It will open massively, meaning that 90-100 mill is possible, but it will fizzle out and make about 250-275. I think it will benefit from the summer weekdays so it might make more than the last one but not much.

So yes, 95 mill is a possiblity.


I am completely puzzled by this analogy. :-k

And for the record, I do think HP4 will open to about $95m.


What's puzzling about it? It will open with about 100 mill for the weekend, and have about a 2.5 multiplier.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:56 am ]
Post subject: 
baumer72 wrote:
Jeff 42 wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
I think the last film will have the same effect that Reloaded had on Revolutions. The die hards will still flock to it but it won't do that well at the box office. Since I am lazy as well, I think the last film opened huge but ended with 247?? So I think you'll see a similar pattern with this one. It will open massively, meaning that 90-100 mill is possible, but it will fizzle out and make about 250-275. I think it will benefit from the summer weekdays so it might make more than the last one but not much.

So yes, 95 mill is a possiblity.


I am completely puzzled by this analogy. :-k

And for the record, I do think HP4 will open to about $95m.


What's puzzling about it? It will open with about 100 mill for the weekend, and have about a 2.5 multiplier.


Not in the holiday season, baumer.
Author:  Jeff 42 [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:12 am ]
Post subject: 
baumer72 wrote:
Jeff 42 wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
I think the last film will have the same effect that Reloaded had on Revolutions. The die hards will still flock to it but it won't do that well at the box office. Since I am lazy as well, I think the last film opened huge but ended with 247?? So I think you'll see a similar pattern with this one. It will open massively, meaning that 90-100 mill is possible, but it will fizzle out and make about 250-275. I think it will benefit from the summer weekdays so it might make more than the last one but not much.

So yes, 95 mill is a possiblity.


I am completely puzzled by this analogy. :-k

And for the record, I do think HP4 will open to about $95m.


What's puzzling about it? It will open with about 100 mill for the weekend, and have about a 2.5 multiplier.

HP3 was widely considered the best movie in the series. Reloaded had mixed WOM and was widely considered a disappointment, so Revolutions opened much lower and had absolutely horrendous legs. You're saying HP4 will have a similar opening and legs to HP3. How are the two situations at all comparable to each other?
Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:35 am ]
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I have to agree with Jeff and Lecter.
Author:  bABA [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:44 am ]
Post subject: 
Jeff 42 wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
Jeff 42 wrote:
baumer72 wrote:
I think the last film will have the same effect that Reloaded had on Revolutions. The die hards will still flock to it but it won't do that well at the box office. Since I am lazy as well, I think the last film opened huge but ended with 247?? So I think you'll see a similar pattern with this one. It will open massively, meaning that 90-100 mill is possible, but it will fizzle out and make about 250-275. I think it will benefit from the summer weekdays so it might make more than the last one but not much.

So yes, 95 mill is a possiblity.


I am completely puzzled by this analogy. :-k

And for the record, I do think HP4 will open to about $95m.


What's puzzling about it? It will open with about 100 mill for the weekend, and have about a 2.5 multiplier.

HP3 was widely considered the best movie in the series. Reloaded had mixed WOM and was widely considered a disappointment, so Revolutions opened much lower and had absolutely horrendous legs. You're saying HP4 will have a similar opening and legs to HP3. How are the two situations at all comparable to each other?


by the fans my friend .. the fans .. and HP series never lost its fanbase ever .. so it doesn't make a difference
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:53 am ]
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I'll sign up because I have a need to belong.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:09 am ]
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It will not even make $80 Million. I'm not feeling the vibe from this 'Potter' movie, you see.

If by some miracle it does make over $95 Million, one can only guess that it will dissapoint BADLY and have no legs whatsoever, finishing with about $240 Million total.
Author:  insomniacdude [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:04 pm ]
Post subject: 
bABA wrote:
insomniacdude wrote:
bABA wrote:
movie will make 245 million max total

you heard it hear first.

bABA's personal prediction: 238 million


I'll bet anything against it.


i know .. you already said anyone thinking its grossing less than 300 million doesn't know shit .. or something like that : )


I actually think it'll gross south of $300 million. I think anything under $250 is ridiculous, but I wouldn't say they don't know shit. Anything below 230, yes, they don't know shit. It's staistically impossible for this movie to get lower than that. That's even WORSE than Reloaded's legs, assuming it sustains the 24K PTA in 3900 theaters (and nothing leads me to assume it won't) for the opening weekend.


bABA wrote:
Jeff 42 wrote:
HP3 was widely considered the best movie in the series. Reloaded had mixed WOM and was widely considered a disappointment, so Revolutions opened much lower and had absolutely horrendous legs. You're saying HP4 will have a similar opening and legs to HP3. How are the two situations at all comparable to each other?


by the fans my friend .. the fans .. and HP series never lost its fanbase ever .. so it doesn't make a difference


The CORE fanbase never left. But where do you think the $310 million came from for the first movie? Part of the casual fanbase had left after the first and/or second movie. I think the third one almost completely redeems it for a majority of the fans that were lost in the Columbus mess.
Author:  baumer72 [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:20 pm ]
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The last HP film was not considered to be the best of the series. In fact I think it was considered to be the weakest. It's gross certainly shows that, at least in North America. I think the fan base for this one will come out in full force to give it it's giant opening, but ti will ultimately fall short of anything really signficant. It'll make it's nice 250 mill but not much more than that.
Author:  MGKC [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:24 pm ]
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$95 million opening seems likely, but I think it will be slightly less than that. Maybe, $94 million. :razz:

Opening: $94.1 million
Total: $240 million
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:26 pm ]
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I always thought the last film had the best reaction from critics.
Author:  baumer72 [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:30 pm ]
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loyalfromlondon wrote:
I always thought the last film had the best reaction from critics.


Yea, but they don't buy tickets for the film. The ones that do felt that the film was weak.
Author:  MGKC [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:33 pm ]
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baumer72 wrote:
loyalfromlondon wrote:
I always thought the last film had the best reaction from critics.


Yea, but they don't buy tickets for the film. The ones that do felt that the film was weak.

Adults and older folks liked the film, but most kids thought it was boring. (at least the ones I talked to)
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
baumer72 wrote:
The last HP film was not considered to be the best of the series. In fact I think it was considered to be the weakest. It's gross certainly shows that, at least in North America. I think the fan base for this one will come out in full force to give it it's giant opening, but ti will ultimately fall short of anything really signficant. It'll make it's nice 250 mill but not much more than that.


Uh, exactly who thinks that?

Attack of the Clones was better than The Phantom Menace, and it still grossed quite a bit less.
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:43 pm ]
Post subject: 
baumer72 wrote:
loyalfromlondon wrote:
I always thought the last film had the best reaction from critics.


Yea, but they don't buy tickets for the film. The ones that do felt that the film was weak.


baumer72 wrote:
The last HP film was not considered to be the best of the series. In fact I think it was considered to be the weakest.


I guess I didn't understand who you were talking about. :razz:
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:09 pm ]
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My girlfriend and mother (great examples, eh?) were both fairly bored by the first two and loved Azkaban. So it's hardly "only critics" that loved the film.
Author:  zingy [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:21 pm ]
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My whole family (including annoying, 8-year old sister...) all loved The Prisoner of Azkaban over the others.

In fact, The Prisoner of Azkaban is the only one I would consider very good. The others were mediocre in comparison.
Author:  Anonymous [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:24 pm ]
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It's no secret that I loved PoA. I couldn't talk enough about that film after I went to the advance screening last summer. Not a fan of the other films.
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:27 pm ]
Post subject: 
I was the exact same way, loyal. I was stunned by how good it was when I saw it last May.
Author:  bABA [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
insomniacdude wrote:
bABA wrote:
insomniacdude wrote:
bABA wrote:
movie will make 245 million max total

you heard it hear first.

bABA's personal prediction: 238 million


I'll bet anything against it.


i know .. you already said anyone thinking its grossing less than 300 million doesn't know shit .. or something like that : )


I actually think it'll gross south of $300 million. I think anything under $250 is ridiculous, but I wouldn't say they don't know shit. Anything below 230, yes, they don't know shit. It's staistically impossible for this movie to get lower than that. That's even WORSE than Reloaded's legs, assuming it sustains the 24K PTA in 3900 theaters (and nothing leads me to assume it won't) for the opening weekend.


bABA wrote:
Jeff 42 wrote:
HP3 was widely considered the best movie in the series. Reloaded had mixed WOM and was widely considered a disappointment, so Revolutions opened much lower and had absolutely horrendous legs. You're saying HP4 will have a similar opening and legs to HP3. How are the two situations at all comparable to each other?


by the fans my friend .. the fans .. and HP series never lost its fanbase ever .. so it doesn't make a difference


The CORE fanbase never left. But where do you think the $310 million came from for the first movie? Part of the casual fanbase had left after the first and/or second movie. I think the third one almost completely redeems it for a majority of the fans that were lost in the Columbus mess.


thank you for quoting me and repeating what i said myself. the core fanbase never left. the people who left were not casual fans but those that that wanted to know what this potter business is all about. after missing out on the last 2 movies, why they hell would they decide to come back? cause the 3rd was good? Newsflash: They never saw the 3rd one.
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:30 pm ]
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Not in theaters. Luckily, it plays night and day on HBO and the DVD outsold Chamber of Secrets (or so I read).
Author:  bABA [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
fans should just accept that not everyone thought that PoA was as good as the fans themselves think it was
Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:30 pm ]
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The Prisoner of Azkaban indeed had better WOM than either of the first two. Its IMDb score is 7.8, comparing to 7.2 for the first and 7.3 for the second. If we just look at the average from people with age under 18, PoA also comes on top with 8.2, comparing to 7.3 for the first and 7.5 for the second.
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