Cold War

Friday - 48,544 admissions (+16.1% from Thursday)
2-day total - 90,342 admissions
Outlook: 1.5-1.6m OW

Skyfall

Friday - 20,881 admissions (+53.7% from Thursday)
2-day total - 34,469 admissions
Outlook: $800,000 (-56.2%)

That's actually still good for Skyfall. I don't it is that bad for movies like these to drop in high 50's

Yeah it is. It will be saved by its weekend business which is very interesting. You don't get many films here that drop like a rock Mon-Thu but do almost double-triple the business on the weekend.

Both Cold War and Skyfall are pulling in surprising results. This weekend will take over as the biggest November weekend on record.

	Weekend Projections			November 8
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Cold War	$1,500,000		$1,510,000
2	Skyfall	$800,000	-56.2%	$2,625,000
3	Natural Born Lovers	$60,000	-65.9%	$660,000
4	Silent Hill: Revelation	$43,000	-71.0%	$700,000
5	Umizaru: Brave Hearts	$40,000	-54.2%	$478,000

Cold War will have the highest OW for a local film since Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy and highest OW for a 2D local film since Ip Man 2. Pretty awesome. Skyfall didn't outright collapse as initially feared. Sunday will be very interesting to watch as last Sunday saw it lose 10,000 admissions from Saturday. Either way, it's headed past 3.5m. Natural Born Lovers continues to do well even with the local competition. Silent Hill: Revelation is dropping like a rock. Umizaru: Brave Hearts is holding fairly well.

Haven't forgotten about your top 10 list, Corpse, but please bear with me. I've been sick the past couple of days and this will take a bit of time to compile. It'll be up sometime tomorrow.

	Weekend Estimates			November 8
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Cold War	$1,550,000		$1,560,000
2	Skyfall	$800,000	-56.2%	$2,625,000
3	Natural Born Lovers	$60,000	-65.9%	$660,000
4	Silent Hill: Revelation	$43,000	-71.0%	$700,000
5	Umizaru: Brave Hearts	$40,000	-54.2%	$478,000

Cold War had an amazing Sunday, falling only 1% from Saturday. It will have the biggest OW for a local film this year, biggest OW since Sex & Zen: Extreme Ecstasy and the highest OW for a 2D film since Ip Man 2 in 2010. It is vying to become the highest grossing HK film of the year which currently belongs to Vulgaria. Word of mouth is very good which will help with legs. With great reviews and a huge OW, this looks poised to become the year's first local film to top 4m. This could even break 5m if it holds up well when Life of Pi opens.

Skyfall suffered a large decline on Thursday but surprisingly roared its way back on Saturday and Sunday. Sunday was its best day percentage wise as it fell below 50% from its opening Sunday. If those percentages continue, this should make about $500,000 on its 3rd weekend on its way to at least 3.5m. 4m is still not locked because Life of Pi is opening on November 22 and that will take away a couple of screens.

Weekend admissions for the top 2

	Cold War	QD % chg	Skyfall	QD % chg
Thu	41,798		13,588
Fri	48,544	+16.1%	20,881	+53.7%
Sat	80,452	+65.7%	34,673	+66.1%
Sun	79,309	-1.4%	34,057	-1.8%
Total	250,103		103,199

Skyfall had an impressive surge on Friday and Saturday but Cold War equalled it on Saturday and dropped less on Sunday starting at a higher number.

This weekend will become the biggest November weekend on record. It'll take over last weekend's November record.

Cold War may not have beaten Ip Man 2 in gross but it did eke out a win in admissions. Ip Man 2 had 249,162 admissions spread out over the 5-day OW. Even though Cold War defeated Ip Man 2 in admissions, a large part of Cold War's Thursday admissions came from seniors who watched the first morning show of the day. Ticket prices for seniors on the first morning show of the day are discounted heavily (around 60%-75% off regular price). These admissions, sprinkled generously throughout the 4-day period, is why Cold War's OW is off about $150,000-$200,000 from Ip Man 2's OW.

Take as much time as you need, no rush.

Are discounts tickets in HK largely nationwide or does it vary by cinema chain? I haven't been to too many different chains in the US, but most don't really offer much in the way of discounts (matinee, senior, student and that's about it). It's a sharp contrast to Japan where there are so many different kinds of discounts.

Some of the discounts apply nationwide but there are special discounts that are only offered by 1 theater chain.

All theater chains have some sort of discount whether it is senior, student or other special discounts. For example, all of the theater chains have special discount for students for both 2D and 3D movies. Most of the major theater chains have discounts for seniors during the morning but some like Newport or Chinachem do not since ticket prices are already very cheap. Other special discounts will only involve 1 theater chain like MCL or Broadway/AMC and are given to certain cardholders.

Monday pre-sales

Cold War - 5,292 (-59.3% from Thursday pre-sales)
Skyfall - 2,525 (-48.5% from last Monday's pre-sales)

Cold War is holding well. Skyfall is doing solid numbers after that Mon-Thu snafu.

Top 10 Japanese Films of 2012
1. Sadako 3D - $1,008,419
2. From Kokuriko Hill - $781,904
3. Helter Skelter - $766,966
4. Umizaru: Brave Hearts - $438,036
5. Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles: Animal Adventure - $368,116
6. Hotaru the Movie: It's Only A Little Light In My Life - $237,293
7. Thermae Romae - $190,359
8. Moteki - $78,999
9. Naruto Shippuden: Blood Prison - $61,549
10. The Wings of the Kirin - $61,075

Japan did much better in 2012 than in 2011 where only 2 films barely placed in the top 100. 5 films on the 2012 top 10 list placed in the top 100. Sadako 3D made the top 50 and Kokuriko/Helter just missed the top 50. On the whole though, it is still well behind the levels of 2005, 2006, 2008-2010 which saw some movies hit the top 10 or top 25. I wouldn't say the Japanese market is declining so much as other film industries are becoming more competitive. India, Taiwan, Korea are all catching up to Japan, and in some cases have already pulled ahead.

The Umizaru and Doraemon sequels are still doing healthy business in HK. Umizaru 4 increased from Umizaru 3 while this Doraemon installment did better than the previous 2 Doraemon offerings.

Sadako 3D impressed in HK. It is the only horror movie this year to make 1m and the only one to place in the top 50. It is even more impressive when we think of how bad the horror market is in HK. People just don't like horror movies here. Take the 2011 Halloween weekend for example. 3 horror movies against each other, getting wide releases. All 3 failed to make the top 5 and each grossed less than $1,000 PSA. Halloween is not celebrated here. It's funny when we think of Valentine's Day and Easter Sunday providing an extra boost to romantic comedies and Easter-themed movies respectively, that Halloween doesn't give horror movies that extra lift.

Although Sadako is based off a recognizable franchise, kudos to the marketing team and the distributor for finding a release date that worked and getting people to the theaters to watch it. There was a girl dressed up as Sadako walking along in Causeway Bay that was used as a marketing tool. People there were handing out flyers and brochures to raise people's awareness of the movie. No doubt getting a picture taken with a fake Sadako prompted people to check it out.

REVISED November 8 Weekend Estimates

	Weekend Estimates			November 8
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Cold War	$1,550,000		$1,560,000
2	Skyfall	$800,000	-56.2%	$3,260,000
3	Natural Born Lovers	$60,000	-65.9%	$745,000
4	Silent Hill: Revelation	$43,000	-71.0%	$751,000
5	Umizaru: Brave Hearts	$40,000	-54.2%	$515,000

Made big errors with holdover totals. Fixed.

Monday admissions

Cold War - 29,766 (-28.8% from Thursday admissions)
Skyfall - 10,175 (-46% from last Monday's admissions)

Cold War will pass 2m by Wednesday. 3.5m is almost a lock. Chances of 4m is about 80%. Cold War could hit 4.5m but I'll reserve judgement until I see 2nd weekend numbers.

Skyfall will pass 4m although chances of 4.5m are not likely given Life of Pi will open next week.

November 8 Actuals

Cold War - $1,617,911 (weekend actual)
Skyfall - $867,000 (-54.5%)/$3,327,427 (weekend actual)
Natural Born Lovers - $747,026
Silent Hill: Revelation - $754,767
Umizaru: Brave Hearts - $508,338
The Perks of Being A Wallflower - $152,243

Cold War blew everything out of the water. Skyfall did well to hold on after that poor Thursday. The Perks of Being A Wallflower will hit 5x multiplier in the next few days.

The top 2 combined for almost 2.5m and overall, it became the biggest November weekend on record.

Records updated.

Wow, what an incredible fall. 5 films grossed 1m or more on opening weekend. That's well up from last year when only 2 managed to hit 7 digits. We are now going to set a new record for most films opening above 1m with The Hobbit assured of a 1m OW in December. The only question is whether or not some other movies will be able to join it. There are still some possibilities out there including Life of Pi, Jack Reacher and Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2.

While the top 10 last year made over 60.9m combined, this year has already pulled ahead of its predecessor's combined total with 61.7m so far. With The Hobbit guaranteed a slot in the year-end top 10, there's still quite a ways to go before we find out how much bigger this year ends up being for the top 10.

I should imagine that Jack Reacher would gross $1m on opening weekend. Knight & Day did $750k, and with a sightly better exchange rate than in 2010, and the fact that M-I:GP opened to $1.2m, gives Jack Reacher a good chance an opening above the $1m mark. But if it Managed $900k, it wouldn't be too disappointing.

That's about what I expect for Jack Reacher as well. I don't think it will be too much above 1m if that happens. The Hobbit will still do the most business. Then you've got Twilight, Les Miserables and Wreck-it Ralph which should play to a sizable crowd.

Went to see Cold War today, though in China, but as it's an HK film, here is what I thought:

Good movie. I felt the seriousnesss of the film wasn't all that well translated and believeable. At times I felt that the seriousness of Aaron Kwok's face (in every scene of the film) was just too much. Even when he was at home with his wife and daughter, why the need for the deep stare? It was odd. Although I really like Kwok as a star, he's not much of an actor. Although he did cry which was fine. In the hospital when that woman came in screaming "Vincent, Vincent" and crying, I assume it was his wife, but that was really bad acting.

Other than that the movie was good, and it kept the edge-of-your-seat suspense just about, but the film was a lot of talking and did need more action to warrant a better grade than a "B". I feel that they were trying to make a mature movie for adults about police corrruption, and they did that, but it just wasn't as high-end of a film as is being made in the US.

I felt that a little more explaining was due in regards to who was actually dirty and who was not. I guess that Lee's son, a few S.W.A.T. guys and lower level police officers were dirty, but none of the big guys, well, apart from Vincent (but he got his comeuppance). Is that right?

Also, the subtitles were up way to short and then gone. Not the film's problem, though.

B

I agree with almost everything you've said.

I have never liked Aaron Kwok as an actor. I just don't think he has the chops to pull it off. That being said, he turned in a good performance.

I had the exact same thought about Vincent's wife but then again, HK dramas are pretty much like this so it was kinda expected.

You're right in both departments. More fluid explanation would have been better because the explanation scenes felt like a throwaway almost.

At first, it didn't really register to me that Vincent was a bad guy but then I remembered that scene with Kwok and his wife at the dinner table. To me, it was like a 'blink and you'll miss it' moment. A slightly longer scene would have helped here.

I enjoyed the movie for what it was. A suspenseful action thriller with a few unbelievable moments. My favourite thing about the movie was the score. Whoever did it should get a raise because they enhanced the scenes a lot. Overall, I would give this movie 8.5/10 (B+). Maybe I'm being too lenient on it but I just really enjoyed the ride. It was breezy and fun even with the pacing issues.
_____________________________________________________

Life of Pi will be the #1 movie this week. It is currently ahead of Cold War in 65% of locations so far. IMAX is looking healthy with peak showtimes 55% full. It is showing on 2 screens (also showing in 2D) and in some places, 3 screens. Cold War is performing well even with the screen loss. It is getting 1 screen at most theaters besides Broadway/AMC. Most Broadway/AMC theaters have kept it on 2 screens this week.

Rise of the Guardians, on the other hand is looking like a huge flop. If it doesn't pick up in admissions on Saturday/Sunday, it could end up #5 behind Skyfall and Love in Time.

I didn't even notice the score, which is unusual for me because that's usually the first thing I notice. Then again, I did have to concentrate a lot of reading the subtitles. When I watch it again in a few years I will listen for if the score enhances the film.

Thursday pre-sales

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		November 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Life of Pi	--	6,634	--
2	Cold War	5,890	3,215	-45.4%
3	Skyfall	2,086	1,026	-50.8%
4	Rise of the Guardians	--	742	--
5	Love in Time	--	613	--

Nice start for Life of Pi. Pi is aiming for 1.1-1.2m this weekend. Since it's a longer movie, I expect huge jumps on Saturday and Sunday. In my opinion, this will have very strong holds the next few weeks. I could see this getting 4m if WOM is what I think it will be.

Cold War had an impressive hold. Usually big movies fall over once another big movie comes in and takes over 2 weeks after. It has remained strong. I'm believing more and more that this will fall less than 50% this weekend. 5m is looking almost like a lock.

Skyfall is nearing the end but it didn't fall down too badly. It'll pass 4.5m next weekend.

Rise of the Guardians flopped hard. It won't be making more than $150,000 this weekend.

Love in Time opened badly but Newport may have a big effect on its ticket sales. We will see.

I am surprised Guardians dropped this hard. Pi is marketed heavily here but its Guardians that have much smarter marketing campaign. Both of the movies have their trailers attached to quite a few movies. How was the marketing for Guardians in HK Blue?

Terrible. There hasn't been too much promotion. Most of it was for Life of Pi.

But it already had a few strikes against it besides the marketing.

1. Cold War surprising.
2. Mild theater support. This was caused by Cold War surprising. If Cold War didn't have that exceptional hold last weekend, we would have been seeing more theaters add Guardians to their rotation.
3. Low interest (without marketing). The buzz is more on Wreck-It Ralph at this point.
4. Release Date. It originally was supposed to come out on Christmas week but when the HK distributor for Guardians saw Hotel Transylvania and Wreck-It Ralph slot in that same week, something had to move.

Honestly, I don't think Guardians would have done better at Christmas or in the New Year. Christmas had too many movies anyways and January is a horrible time for kids movies. And waiting till Chinese New Year is not an option because there's always going to be a big animation movie that's delayed till then.

Yeah the same problem here, scheduling is really messed up. Over September/October we didn't have any animated movie and now it looks like every weekend we have an animated movie.

Ralph is on 20th December so the marketing hasn't yet picked up for that. Frankenweenie released last weekend didn't do much, so all kids are ready for RotG here. I believe that the marketing for RotG is much decent though Fox has built an exhaustive campaign for Pi which could hurt RotG since both are releasing the same weekend. RotG could easily flop here with Pi opening big and then Hotel Transylvania is releasing on its second weekend.

I don't understand why the animation films have to clog up the holidays or summer. It's really annoying when they delay movies here 2-3 months just so it can play in the summertime. That sounds pretty awful though. But that doesn't even begin to compare to next summer over here.

Next year, starting on June 27 and ending August 15, there will be at least 6 animation releases during that period.

2013 Summer Animation Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
June 27	Epic
July 4	Despicable Me 2
July 11	Monsters University
July 18	Turbo
August 1	The Smurfs 2
August 15	Planes

Adding to that, Doraemon has released every year in the summer for the past 8 years so the tradition is likely to continue! All of the Doraemon cartoons have come out on the last weekend of July or first weekend of August.

We could be seeing an animated release come out for 6 weeks straight. Crazy. And of course, other studios are going to delay their animation projects till the summer too. Theaters are going to have an overload of children's films.

That doesn't even factor in the big movies. Kick-Ass 2 is out June 27 and Wolverine is coming out July 25 but Man of Steel might be delayed to July or August because of final exams in June. They did that with Superman Returns so it's possible that Man of Steel could get the same treatment. Sigh, such a big mess.

Drug War looks better than Cold War. I hope it has English subtitles because I want to see it.

Yeah, Drug War looks better.

Life of Pi is receiving awful reviews in HK. OW should be fine but weekends after could be dicey.

Really? How bad?

It seemed like a critics wet dream. Who'd have thought they didn't like it!

What is "Drug War"?

Outside of the top 5 as of 2012-11-22 16:40:59 HKT (http://wmoov.com/movie/boxoffice):

6. Triad (HK) HK$76,130 / 71 showings

7. Argo (US) HK$57,110 / 41 showings

8. Sinister (US) HK$27,050 / 47 showings

9. The Words (US) HK$22,790 / 23 showings

10. Chronicle Of My Mother (Japan) HK$20,270 / 10 showings