Summer 2010 Big 3 Watch

Bayside Shakedown 3:
2day total - Y972m ($11.1m), 707,399 admissions
5day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1.1m admissions
7day total - Y1.9b ($21.5m), unknown admissions (should be about 1.6m however)
9day total - Y2.5b ($28.8m), 2.1m admissions
16day total - Y3.65b ($42.4m), 2.9m admissions
17day total - Y3.92b ($45.1m), 3,005,883 admissions
19day total - Y4.2b ($48.3m), 3.2m admissions

Toy Story 3:
2day total - Y977m ($11.1m), 649,190 admissions
6day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1m admissions
9day total - Y2.4b ($27.4m), 1.5m admissions
13day total - Y3b ($34.5m), 1.9m admissions

The Borrower Arrietty:
2day total - Y916m ($10.4m), 680,000 admissions
3day total - Y1.35b ($15.6m), 1,038,138 admissions


A very quick update, should have waited a bit longer to post the other one.

New updates will be in blue.

It is surprising to see how much 3D has inflated TS3's run. When talking about admissions it is no where near the big 2

Corpse, do you have any admissions numbers for Avatar and Alice?

About 9.7m for Avatar, and 7.2m for Alice. I'm working on a Top 10 Admissions Chart for 2010 right now.

Which is far lower than all the other $130m+ earners (some films around $90/$100 have just as many admissions as Alice), but like I've said before, it's because 3D represented over 80% (84% I think) of Alice's total gross, and Avatar was near 70%.

Weekend Forecast
July 24-25, 2010

1 N Inception (WB)
2 1 The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) 2
3 2 Toy Story 3 (Disney) 3
4 3 Bayside Shakedown 3 (Toho) 4
5 4 Pokemon 13 (Toho) 3
6 5 The Last Airbender (Paramount) 2
7 6 Predators (Fox) 3
8 7 Confessions (Toho) 8
9 9 Sword of Desperation (Toei) 3
10 8 Surely Someday (Shochiku) 2

Inception's advance screening, previews, were very strong last weekend and it would appear they'll be included in this weekend's gross. I'm not sure for what days, or if they money it made last weekend will simply be added to the weekend as a whole or what though.

Inception did open early on Friday for a 3day weekend and not Saturday, however. Just have to wait and see how the previews will be distributed.

Top 10 Attended Films of 2010


1. Avatar - 9,600,000 admissions
2. Alice in Wonderland - 7,100,000 admissions
3. One Piece Film Strong World - 4,000,000 admissions
4. Bayside Shakedown 3 - 3,200,000 admissions (19 days in release)
5. Nodame Cantabile The Movie 1 - 3,150,000 admissions
6. Nodame Cantabile The Movie 2 - 3,100,000 admissions (86 days in release)
7. Up - 3,000,000 admissions
8. Confessions - 2,800,000 admissions (45 days in release)
9. Doraemon Nobita's South Sea Adventure - 2,650,000 admissions
10. Detective Conan Lost Ship in the Sky - 2,600,000 admissions (86 days in release)
-estimates

Bold - Films no longer showing.

I believe Alice in Wonderland is out of theaters, so I bolded it. I didn't see it listed anywhere once Toy Story 3 opened.

Top 5 All Time:

1. Spirited Away - 23,500,000 admissions
2. Titanic - 16,900,000 admissions
3. Howl's Moving Castle - 15,000,000 admissions
4. Princess Mononoke - 13,600,000 admissions
5. Bayside Shakedown 2 - 12,600,000 admissions

Ponyo would be next with 12,000,000, and I believe I read HP1 had 11,000,000 admissions (exchange rate was horrible in 2002, sheesh), but after that though I'm not sure enough to make it a Top 10.

Lol, Spirited Away would have made $434.8m with Alice in Wonderland's average ticket price.

Currently: Saturday, 8:35AM @ Miyoshi (Aichi)
Morning Showtimes

Advance Tickets Sold/Seats Available

The Borrower Arrietty
9:35 - 091/332
10:20 - 062/124
11:55 - 044/332

Inception
10:10 - 073/228
11:45 - 038/110

Toy Story 3 (3D)
9:30 - 031/124
10:00 - 077/201

Bayside Shakedown 3
10:10 - 053/110
11:10 - 025/155

Currently: Saturday, 3:15PM
Location: The Usual Chains, representing 10-15% of the market.

Mid-Day Ticket Sales/Seats Available

The Borrower Arrietty - 11,361/34,733
Toy Story 3 - 9,194/24,843
Inception - 7,643/15,375
Pokemon 13 - 7,495/20,765 (!!!, so strong for some reason)
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 6,188/13,863

Currently: Saturday, 3:35PM @ Miyoshi (Aichi) Cinema
Evening/Night Showtimes

Advance Tickets Sold/Seats Available

The Borrower Arrietty
4:35 - 088/332
5:20 - 032/124
6:55 - 058/322
8:00 - 113/124
9:10 - 233/332
Total - 524/1,244

Inception
4:50 - 155/228
6:05 - 024/110
8:20 - 022/228
9:15 - 067/110
Total - 268/676

Bayside Shakedown 3
4:40 - 075/110
5:55 - 031/155
8:10 - 013/110
9:10 - 092/155
Total - 211/530

Toy Story 3 (3D)
6:20 - 034/120
7:25 - 031/124
9:00 - 138/201
Total - 203/526

Currently: Sunday, 1:00AM
Location: The Usual Chains, representing 10-15% of the market.

Overall Ticket Sales/Seats Available for Saturday:

The Borrower Arrietty - 20,887/67,383
Inception - 15,509/31,892
Toy Story 3 - 14,887/47,154
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 11,573/30,335
Pokemon 13 - 8,901/27,619

Last Saturday:

The Borrower Arrietty - 34,504/73,018
Toy Story 3 - 20,077/48,071
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 16,570/33,700
Pokemon 13 - 13,317/30,665


Inception is really going to need those previews from last weekend added to this weekend if it wants to open at No.1.

Based on the Saturday's ticket sales from these chains, both Arrietty and Toy Story 3 are going to beat it.

My very early weekend estimates based on the Partial Sat. Admissions above:

The Borrower Arrietty - Y625-650 million ($7.2-7.7 million), second weekend
Toy Story 3 - Y540-560 million ($6.3-6.8 million), third weekend
Inception - Y510-530 million ($6-6.5 million), opening weekend
Bayside Shakedown 3 - Y400-425 million ($4.7-5.2 million), fourth weekend
Pokemon 13 - Y250-Y275 million ($3-3.5 million), third weekend

inception number hopefully will be higher with all the previews it had since last weekend. I am still disappointed it did not open close to 10M.

BTW awesome job with this thread. I must say this is the best maintained OS country thread by a mile.

Well, do note that it opened on Friday. The 3-day, if I'm close with my weekend estimates above, would probably be $8-8.5m. So a possible $6-6.5 2day, and $8-8.5 3day are both exceptional, and would mean every major film released this month opened very well and look to exceed most expectations (except for Bayside 3, but it's still doing very well and can reach $100m+) despite it being the most crowded month in years.

Thanks btw.

I am assuming previews and friday opening would have really softened the 2-day OW of inception. if the WOM is on par with domestic then it should have very good holds.

A multiplier of 7 or so shouldn't be too difficult.

A few rough comparisons,

Shutter Island - $2.9m 2day/$3.4m 3day, $18.5m (6.5x) finish
2012 - $6.3m 2day, $42.02m (6.6x) finish
Live Free Or Die Hard - $5m 2day/$7.1m 3day, $34m (7x) finish

If Inception opens to $6.5 2day/$8.5m 3day, I'd predict the total to be $45-55m. It'd be up against Pokemon 13, which also seems headed for a similar range again, for the 4th spot this Summer.

I found a pretty good comparison for Inception.

Terminator Salvation.. yes, it's a franchise film, but both films share a sci-fi element, similar screen counts, and both films had previews the weekend before their opening weekend.

Terminator Salvation grossed Y592 million or $6.1 million for the 2-day opening weekend, but with previews added, it earned Y1.021 billion or $10.6m.

Those were some mightly impressive previews for Terminator Salvation, displaying it's massive frontloading perhaps (only managed a 5 multiplier or 3 if you include previews, very weak in the market).

I have Inception's preview admissions, and it's admissions for Friday from the usual locations (10-15% of the market) as well:

Last Saturday - 7,243
Last Sunday - 8,035
Opening Day, Friday - 6,054

A slight frontloading here, but doesn't compare with Terminator Salvation because Inception's Saturday came to 15,509 (roughly matching last weekend's previews), which I know Terminator's Saturday failed to do given how big it's previews were.

I see Inception's Saturday being less than Terminator Salvation's (because it was so frontloaded), but I'm betting Sunday will be higher bringing it near Terminator Salvation's Y592 million 2-day. And with the current exchange rate, Inception won't have to match or surpass that number to beat Terminator Salvation's USD 2-Day opening of $6.1m.

Currently: Sunday, 1:15PM @ Miyoshi (Aichi) MOVIX Cinema
Day/Evening Showtimes

Advance Tickets Sold/Seats Available

The Borrower Arrietty
2:15 - 240/332
3:00 - 089/124
4:35 - 044/332
5:20 - 021/124
Total - 394/912

Toy Story 3 (3D)
2:35 - 110/124
3:30 - 142/201
6:20 - 035/201
Total - 287/526

Bayside Shakedown 3
2:30 - 125/155
4:40 - 020/110
5:55 - 015/155
Total - 160/420

Inception
2:55 - 082/110
4:50 - 053/228
6:05 - 015/110
Total - 150/448

I am surprised that the PTA for TS3 looks better than Arrietty, is Arrietty more like a last-minute movie?

If there are surprise last minute walk-ins for TS3 then with the help of 3D it can go to #1

Arrietty is playing in the biggest auditoriums, and has about double the seats available, so they won't fill up as quickly as the smaller ones Toy Story, Bayside, or Inception are playing in. The single 2:15 showing sold almost as many tickets as all of TS3's combined showings for example.

So Toy Story 3 won't be No.1. It's tickets are higher, but unlike Pokemon, Arrietty's tickets are high enough where it has a comfortable lead over Toy Story 3. Arrietty also sold about 40% more tickets than Toy Story 3 yesterday.

The theater I posted about is also a MOVIX Cinema, which Toy Story 3 has been especially strong in, that whole chain of theaters.

But a Toho Cinema in Umeda, Osaka, shows a different side:

The Borrower Arrietty - 931/2,612
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 655/1,178
Toy Story 3 - 522/1,377
Inception - 419/1,204

Hmm....I see your point, still curious is Arrietty more like a walk-in movie?

Inception is doing pretty well cause I know it is more a last-minute walk-in movie

I'm not sure. Arrietty's audience is very diverse, like most Studio Ghibli films. Arrietty did attract 60% females it's opening weekend, so if I found data based on gender I might have something, but I don't.

In general though, buying tickets in advance is common in Japan because at the door prices are about $5 more ($15.50 vs $20.50) on average. When I post admission updates, you'll notice showtimes will be very full in advance already, even if the film has been out for several weeks (see Bayside).

4pm - 7pm are weak hours though, people are waiting for the 8pm or later showings because tickets are cheaper then. Check out Arrietty last Saturday:

Arrietty
16:35 - 283/519
17:20 - 075/124
18:55 - 074/519
20:00 - 109/124
21:10 - 374/519

Day sales are good, but the 8pm and 9:10pm showings are nearly full 4/5 hours in advance already.

Wow that is a big difference $5 I know I will always book my ticket in advance or skip it for that day

Overall Ticket Sales/Seats Available for Sunday from Usual Locations:

The Borrower Arrietty - 25,146/63.352
Toy Story 3 - 20,146/42,999
Inception - 14,385/29,641
Pokemon 13 - 12,106/27,619
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 11,613/27,016


Overall Weekend Results From Usual Locations:

The Borrower Arrietty - 46,033/120,735 (Down 37%)
Toy Story 3 - 35,033/90,153 (Down 28%)
Inception - 29,894/61,533
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 23,186/57,351 (Down 43%)
Pokemon 13 - 21,007/55,238 (Down 35%)


A fairy weak Sunday all around, really. Someone mentioned the rain, so that could have been it, but I can't say for sure. Arrietty and Toy Story 3 see good, but not great Sunday increases. Inception and Bayside remained flat. And Pokemon saw a small increase.

Based on the figures above, my new weekend estimates are:

The Borrower Arrietty - Y560-580 million ($6.5-6.8 million)
Toy Story 3 - Y520-540 million ($5.9-6.2 million)
Inception - Y440-460 million ($5-5.5 million)
Bayside Shakedown 3 - Y305-330 million ($3.5-4 million)
Pokemon 13 - Y230-250 million ($2.7-3 million)

As for totals, they should look something like:

The Borrower Arrietty - Y2.75 billion ($31.5 million) after 9 days (better than TS3 and Bayside afer 9 days, and also matching Ponyo in USD after 9 days)
Toy Story 3 - Y3.7 billion ($42 million) after 16 days
Bayside Shakedown 3 - Y4.55 billion ($52 million) after 23 days
Pokemon 13 - Y1.8 billion ($22 million) after 16 days

Not sure on Inception since it had previews last weekend and opened on Friday, but with the admissions from the usual locations for all 5 days, my guess would be $8.5m for the total (Hollywood Reporter, etc. will likely report this number instead of it's weekend number).

I'll provide comparisons for all of the above when some numbers are released tomorrow.

what is coming up next week?

can ts3 have sub 20% drop?