July 17-18, 2010 PREVIEW


July 10-11 was very big, possibly the biggest weekend of all time (I have it narrowly missing the record, but we'll know for sure tomorrow), but July 17-18 has potential to be even bigger.

Openers:

The Borrower Arrietty (Karigurashi no Arrietti) is the latest from Studio Ghibli.



The film was written by Hayao Miyazaki, and directed by Hiromasa Yonebayashi making his debut. Yonebayashi worked as an animator on many of Studio Ghibli's films, such as Ponyo, Spirited Away, and Tales From Earthsea.

Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki have high hopes for the newcomer.

While The Borrower Arrietty is unlikely to perform like a Miyazaki directed film, it's still set to become a huge success in Japan.

Previous non-Miyazaki films, 2002's The Cat Returns, and 2006's Tales From Earthsea both performed very well. The Cat Returns grossed Y6.46b ($73m today), while Tales From Earthsea grossed Y7.65b ($86m today).

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Surely Someday makes another directorial debut, this time with Oguri Shun.



Oguri Shun has starred in many high profile drama tv shows, and their theatrical adaptations such as: Gokusen, Boys Over Flowers, and Crows ZERO.

The story is loosely based on the bonds between Oguri and his friends from high school. The central cast consists of actors Keisuke Koide, Ryo Katsuji, Go Ayano, Ryohei Suzuki, and Tsuyoshi Muro. Additional cast members include Takashi Okamura (of Ninety-nine), Naoto Takenaka, Fuyuki Moto, and Satoshi Tsumabuki.

The five main characters form a band, hoping to gain popularity with their original song called "Surely Someday" at their school's cultural festival. Unfortunately, a foolish incident results in them dropping out of school. With their lives seemingly at a dead end, they take on the challenge of trying to turn their lives around.

The film is being distributed by Shochiku, so it won't get the screens a Toho release receives, but interest seems pretty high to me.

The film has been a constant on Eiga's most popular searches chart for half a year now, and may be refreshing for the teen/young adult crowd, especially females, who may have little interested in the big three animated titles this month, and the older skewing Bayside Shakedown 3.

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The Last Airbender makes it's debut in Japan this weekend, as well.



I'm not sure how well-known the show is in Japan, but I do know Japanese audiences can be turned off really quickly with unusual and wrong casting (Dragonball, Memoirs of a Geisha, and Prince of Persia come to mind with reports over their casting, and went on to bomb with Geisha barely making it to $10m), so any popularity it has will take a major hit with the casting.

The market is going to be very crowded now, so I don't see this one performing too well. Perhaps not Prince of Persia bad (sub $10m), but not much better. Percy Jackson may be a fair comparison, which finished in the mid teens.

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Holdovers:

Toy Story 3 will continue to do very well, but might be hit a bit by The Borrower Arrietty. I still don't see a drop over 30/35% for the toons though with over 80% of it's opening coming from 3D locations.

Past Pokemon films have drop around 45/50% their second weekends before stabilizing, so a similar drop should be in store for Pokemon 13.

Bayside Shakedown 3 saw a rather hefty drop this past weekend, but weekdays appear to be making up for it. The third weekend drop will be better than this past weekend, and the film still has alot of momentum having hit Y3b ($34m) according to Toho today, meaning it added about $5m from just Monday and Tuesday.
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If the weekend fails to become the biggest weekend in gross, it's a sure thing to become the biggest weekend in terms of admissions.

Weekend Summary, July 10-11, 2010



1. Toy Story 3 Walt Disney Int'l $11,034,083 1 530 $20,819 0 $11,034,083
2. Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose ! Toho $7,601,731 2 447 $17,006 -31 $28,242,877
3. Pokemon The Movie 2010 Toho $7,107,555 1 369 $19,262 0 $7,107,555
4. Predators Fox Int'l $2,744,550 1 373 $7,358 0 $2,744,550
5. Confessions Toho $1,746,587 6 266 $6,566 -30 $34,754,104
6. Sword of Desperation TOEI $884,779 1 256 $3,456 0 $884,779
7. Extraordinary Adventures of Adèle Blanc-Sec, The Asmik Ace $624,927 2 261 $2,394 -49 $3,122,457
8. Soreike! Anpanman The Blacknose and the Magical Song Tokyo Theaters Co.,Inc. $477,149 1 150 $3,181 0 $477,149
9. Sex And The City 2 Warner Bros. International $403,945 6 341 $1,185 -37 $18,229,710
10. Iron Man 2 Paramount Int'l $329,325 5 383 $860 -51 $12,690,856


Toy Story 3 delivers the 4th biggest opening of the year, exceeding some of the higher expecations (around $8.5/$9m) and tops Finding Nemo for Pixar's biggest debut to date. $100m is in reach for Woody and Buzz.

Pokemon 13 beat Bayside Shakedown 3 in admissions by a comfortable margin, but with far less expensive tickets, it has to settle for third this weekend. But not as though third is bad, this marks the biggest opening in USD for any Pokemon film and puts it on track for $50m.

Bayside Shakedown 3 sees a fairly good hold, but 20/25% was expected for the film. The second weekend number is on par with Bayside Shakedown 2, Ponyo, and some other $100m+ films, but they all went on to have multiple increases each week or minimal drops. It's tough to predict where the film will finish, but $100m is most definitely still possible.

Predators opens to a very solid debut with the amount of competition right now. The reboot (I think it is?) should be good for a total of about $13m.

Confessions has lost little momentum after topping every weekend in June and is coming ever closer to $40m. The milestone should be reached the final week of July.

I think this is the biggest weekend on record, but I need to add a few numbers up to make sure.

Top 20 Opening Weekends of 2010

1. April, Alice in Wonderland (Disney) - $14,297,616 (2day), 859 screens - $16,644 pta, 828,149 admissions
2. Dec. 09, One Piece Strong World (TOEI) - $11,692,830 (2day), 188 screens - $62,196 pta, 819,738 admissions
3. July, Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! (Toho) - $11,080,725 (2day), 447 screens - 24,789 pta, 707,399 admissions
4. July, Toy Story 3 (Disney) - $11,034,083 (2day), 530 screens - $20,819 pta, 649,190 admissions
5. July, Pokemon 13 Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark (Toho) - $7,107,555 (2day), 369 screens - $19,262 pta, 601,602 admissions
6. Dec. 09, Up (Disney) - $6,992,874 (2day), 663 screens - $10,547 pta, 440,804 admissions
7. Dec. 09, Avatar (Fox) - $6,611,848 (2day)/$14,553,033 (5day), 839 screens - $7,881 pta
8. March, Doraemon 30 South Sea Adventure (Toho) - $6,115,994 (2day), 366 screens - $16,710 pta, 498,198 admissions
9. April, Nodame Cantabile: The Movie II (Toho) - $6,114,997 (2day), 410 screens - $14,915 pta, 437,613 admissions
10. April, Detective Conan 14 Lost Ship in the Sky (Toho) - $6,103,158 (2day), 352 screens - $17,339 pta, 471,527 admissions

11. Dec. 09, Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider W & Dikeido (TOEI) - $5,096,420 (2day), 292 screens - $17,453 pta, 396,178 admissions
12. Dec. 09, Nodame Cantabile: The Movie I (Toho) - $4,364,808 (2day), 409 screens - $10,672 pta, 317,302 admissions
13. March, Liar Game: The Final Stage (Toho) - $4,331,798 (2day), 283 screens - $15,307 pta, 308,824 admissions
14. May, Trick the Movie: Psychic Battle Royale (Toho) - $4,004,850 (2day), 320 screens - $12,515 pta, 270,705 admission
15. Jan., Oceans (Gaga) - $3,756,389 (2day)/$4,356,393 (3day), 303 screens - $12,483 pta, 280,726 admissions
16. March, Sherlock Holmes (WB) - $3,641,763 (2day)/$4,567,460 (3day), 441 screens - $8,392 pta
17. Feb., Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief (Fox) - $3,411,348 (2day)/$4,155,371 (3day), 561 screens - $5,976 pta
18. April, Crayon Shin-chan 18 (Toho) - $2,941,628 (2day), 325 screens - $9,051 pta, 238,831 admissions
19. April, Shutter Island (Paramount) - $2,937,750 (2day)/$3,691,285 (3day), 442 screens - $6,646 pta, 208,427 admissions
20. June, Confessions (Toho) - $2,935,807 (2day), 266 screens - $11,037 pta, 194,893 admissions


Toy Story 3 and Pokemon 13 both open in the Top 5.


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Top 20 Films of 2010

1. Avatar (Fox) - $166,371,800
2. Alice In Wonderland (Disney) - $134,063,156
3. One Piece Strong World (TOEI) - $56,776,373
4. Up (Disney) - $54,285,463
5. Nodame Cantabile The Movie II (Toho) - $44,402,145
6. Nodame Cantabile The Movie I (Toho) - $44,322,317
7. Detective Conan 14 The Lost Ship in the Sky (Toho) - $35,301,112
8. Doraemon 30 Nobita's South Sea Adventure (Toho) - $34,796,716
9. Confessions (Toho) - $34,754,104
10. Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose! (Toho) - $28,242,877

11. Liar Game: The Final Stage (Toho) - $26,160,537
12. Oceans (GAGA) - $25,721,299
13. Sherlock Holmes (WB) - $23,274,806
14. Younger Brother(Shochiku) - $21,047,812
15. Trick The Movie: Psychic Battle Royale (Toho) - $20,842,704
16. Shutter Island (Paramount) - $18,288,305
17. Sex and the City 2 (WB) - $18,229,710
18. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Decade Movie (TOEI) - $17,035,761
19. Clash of the Titans (WB) - $16,408,584
20. Percy Jackson and the Olympians (Fox) - $15,290,375

i - still playing
Studio/Distributor Tally: Toho - 8, WB - 3, TOEI - 2, Fox - 2, Disney - 2, Shochiku - 1, Gaga - 1, Paramount - 1

Bayside Shakedown 3 enters at No.10 after 9 days. Top 5 should be achievable after this coming weekend.
Nodame Cantabile: The Movie II slides past the original.
Confessions will pass both Doaremon and Detective Conan in just a day or two.
Sex and the City 2 will edge out Shutter Island this week.

Toy Story 3 will enter before the end of the week, while Pokemon 13 does the same after this coming weekend.

How come One Piece Strong World had a bigger opening than Bayside Shakedown 3 despite way less theatres and no 3D boost like Alice?!

One Piece is very popular in Japan. Last year it surpassed Dragonball to become the best selling manga of all time, and the anime consistently has a 12-15% household rating.

Since last fall, the manga began a crucial and major arc which has helped increase sales for almost a year now. The last 5 volumes have each soared pass 2m copies sold in just a few weeks. Total sales are nearing 200m copies, which will probably happen with Volume 59 in a few months. Rough estimates put Harry Potter over 400m worldwide, so you can see just how big 200m copies is with almost all of that coming from Japan alone.

And the manga is about half way finished according to Eiichiro Oda (the author and artist), so maybe it can even match Harry Potter before the end.

Strong World was highly anticipated by the millions of fans because it marked the first movie directed (assistant), and produced by the author of the manga. On top of that, the first 1.5m viewers received a free copy of Volume 0, which was a lead in for the Strong World movie.

When the film opened, it sold out almost all of it's showings for the entire weekend, and set the all-time PTA record for a film playing on 100 screens or more.

Weekend Forecast, July 17-18, 2010



1 N The Borrower Arrietty
2 1 Toy Story 3
3 2 Bayside Shakedown 3 Set The Guys Loose!
4 3 Pokemon 13 Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark
5 N The Last Airbender
6 6 Sword of Desperation
7 4 Predators
8 N Surely Someday
9 5 Confessions
10 8 Anpanman The Movie (2010)

Advance Bookings at Ebina's Toho Cinemas for Saturday:

Title/Ticket Sold/Ticket Available

Arriettei - 661 / 5,280　
Toisuto 3 - 173 / 3,007
Bayside 3 - 160 / 1,880
Pocket Monsters 13 - 126 / 1,496
Surely Someday - 11 / 870

I'm guessing Toisuto 3 is Toy Story 3 and Pocket Monsters is Pokemon?

What do those numbers mean? That looks pretty bad for Toy Story 3 judging from the pre-sales. It must have been hit hard by Borrower Arrietty.

They are, I forgot to edit them.

I wouldn't look too much into the admissions right now, it's as early as you can get and mostly consist of morning sales. And it's just from one chain in one area, so it only represents a very small portion of sales. I'll update the usual cinema chains that represent a much larger percentage of sales (10-15%) when they come in, from those it'll be much easier to see how big Arrietty will be, and how Toy Story 3 will hold up.

However, the early bookings do show that Arrietty will have no problem taking the top from Toy Story 3, and Bayside Shakedown 3 will probably see one of it's best holds this weekend.

Also, Inception is having some advance screenings this weekend. Not sure if it'll be reported how well they do, but I'll report on them if I can. Inception opens on July 23rd.

http://www.sanspo.com/geino/news/100717 ... 000-n1.htm

Bayside Shakedown 3 had grossed 1.5 billion yen, 1.1 million admissions, in 5 days for a recent comparison, and a good one too considering both films opened to almost the exact same amount in yen and USD.

Bayside Shakedown 3:
2day total - Y972m ($11.1m), 707,399 admissions
5day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1.1m admissions
7day total - Y1.9b ($21.5m), unknown admissions
9day total - Y2.5b ($28.8m), 2.1m admissions

Toy Story 3:
2day total - Y977m ($11.1m), 649,190 admissions
6day total - Y1.5b ($17.2m), 1m admissions

Final update before the first shows begin:

Arrietty - 809/5280
Toy Story 3 - 339/3007
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 287/1880
Pokemon 13 - 222/1496
Surely Someday - 19/870

More information should be available tomorrow for Saturday, but in the meantime, here are the evening advance bookings at the larger MOVIX cinema in Miyoshi, Aichi.

Title
Time~ tickets sold/seats available

エアベンダー（３D） (The Last Airbender - 3D)
17:00～　076/124
21:55～　095/124

■シュアリーサムディ (Surely Someday)
18:30～　008/110
21:10～　026/110

■アリエッティ (The Borrower Arrietty)
16:35～　197/519
17:20～　080/124
18:55～　103/519
20:00～　121/124
21:10～　410/519

■プレデターズ (Predators)
17:10～　038/104
22:00～　068/104

■必死剣鳥刺し (Sword of Desperation)
17:45～　014/92

■トイストーリー3（３D） (Toy Story 3 - 3D)
18:10～　114/201
19:25～　060/124
21:00～　169/201

■ポケモン (Pokemon)
17:40～　126/332
20:20～　047/104

■ロストクライム (Lost Crime)
19:35～　012/104

■アデル　ファラオと復活の秘薬 (The Adventures of Adele)
21:00～　028/110

■踊る大捜査線３ (Bayside Shakedown 3)
17:50～　095/155
20:10～　201/228
21:15～　134/155

■ザウォーカー (The Walker/Book of Eli)
18:20～　011/110

■告白 (Confessions)
20:30～　054/092

The Borrower Arrietty was released on 447 screens (same as Bayside Shakedown 3), matching Howl's Moving Castle and close to Ponyo's record of 481 screens.

I was expecting about 425 (Tales From Earthsea opened on 435), so great count for Arrietty.

According to daily.co.jp (http://www.daily.co.jp/newsflash/2010/0 ... 1255.shtml), The Borrower Arrietty is tracking at 87% of Ponyo's first day admissions. Ponyo opened to Y1.025 billion yen, and finished with Y15.5 billion ($172.15 million).

Very impressive given it's not directed by Hayao Miyazaki. I have Ponyo's opening day admissions and gross somewhere, I'll have to dig around a bit for them.

But if Arrietty maintained about 87% of Ponyo's opening weekend admissions, Arrietty would open to about 705,000 admissions.

By comparison, Tales From Earthsea opened with 672,696 admissions for Y907 million ($10.5m using today's exchange rate). Arrietty is assured to have better legs than Earthsea having received a mixed reception, which "only" had a multiplier just over 8, making it the first Ghibli film to miss a 10x+ multiplier, and finished with Y7.65 billion ($86m with today's exchange rate).

So we may have yet another $100m contender.

Full opening day figures from the usual locations (represent 10-15% of total ticket sales in the country):

Saturday:
Arrietty - 34504/73018
Toy Story 3 - 20077/48071
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 16570/33700
Pokemon 13 - 13317/30665
Surely Someday - 2155/12741

For comparision for Arrietty, below are Toy Story 3 and Bayside Shakedown 3's opening day at the same locations: Bayside Shakedown 3 - 47424/86649 / Toy Story 3 - 32410/57086.

Toy Story 3 is down about 35% compared to last Saturday.
Bayside Shakedown 3 is also down about 35% compared to last Saturday.
Pokemon 13 is down about 45%.


Bayside Shakedown 3 (447 screens)
Saturday - Y529m (390,017 admissions)
Sunday - Y443m (317,382 admissions)
Opening Weekend - Y972m (707,399 admissions)

Toy Story 3 (530 screens)
Saturday - Y457m (305,855 admissions
Sunday - Y520m (343,335 admissions)
Opening Weekend - Y977m (649,190 admissions)

The Borrower Arrietty (447 screens)
Saturday -
Sunday -
Opening Weekend -

Advance ticket sales for Sunday evening (currently 16:00 in Japan) from the same location as above.

■アリエッティ (The Borrower Arrietty)
16:35～　283/519
17:20～　075/124
18:55～　074/519
20:00～　109/124
21:10～　374/519
Total~ 870/1805

■踊る大捜査線3 (Bayside Shakedown 3)
16:40～　221/228
17:50～　111/155
20:10～　212/228
21:15～　135/155
Total~ 669/766

■トイストーリー3（3D） (Toy Story 3)
18:10～　161/201
19:25～　090/124
21:00～　165/201
Total~ 416/526

Weekend Results from the usual locations (10-15% of total admissions in the country):

Saturday:
Arrietty - 34504/73018
Toy Story 3 - 20077/48071
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 16570/33700
Pokemon 13 - 13317/30665
Surely Someday - 2155/12741

Sunday:
Arrietty - 40349/73196
Toy Story 3 - 28569/48071
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 24008/33700
Pokemon 13 - 19290/30665
Surely Someday - 2571/12741

Weekend:
Arrietty - 74853/146214
Toy Story 3 - 48646/96142
Bayside Shakedown 3 - 40578/67400
Pokemon 13 - 32607/61330


Very strong Sunday, and Arrietty actually increased. Admission wise, it's more than Toy Story 3 and Bayside Shakedown 3's first Sundays.

And overall for the weekend, it beat Toy Story 3's opening (74,853 vs 67,281) in admissions. Tickets aren't as high as Toy Story 3's, but they're not as cheat as Pokemon, so it may turn out to be very close to see which will have the highest opening in gross.


Toy Story 3
Opening Weekend:
Sat. - 32410/57086
Sun. - 34871/52252
Total - 67,281

This Weekend:
Sat. 20077/48071
Sun. - 28569/48071
Total - 48,646

Down about 28%.


Bayside Shakedown 3
Last Weekend:
Sat. - 26417/56308
Sun. - 26743/49965
Total - 53,160

This Weekend:
Sat. - 16570/33700
Sun. - 24008/33700
Total - 40,578

Down about 24%.

Opening Weekend Comparison

Bayside Shakedown 3
Sat. - 47,424/86,649
Sun. - 34,277/78,252
Total - 81,701

Toy Story 3
Sat. - 32,410/57,086
Sun. - 34,871/52,252
Total - 67,281

The Borrower Arrietty
Sat. - 34,504/73,018
Sun. - 40,349/73,196
Total - 74,853

A total at 26m then?

is 85m still in play?

because i have a hard time seeing this makes 60m more after 8m 2nd wknd

where did bayside3's total stand at after 2nd wknd?

TS3 can develop later legs as well. From what I remember Avatar made more money in 9th weekend than in its 5th weekend. If the movie is going as a blockbuster movie which I think it will it can show legs after few weeks as well.

A total in the mid/high 20's looks right after 9 days. That 28% drop is just from those locations though, could be lower or higher when the overall admissions come in.

And $85m is easily in play.

Weekdays in Japan are equal to or greater than most weekends all year round (except during the fall and early spring) making up about 55% of a film's total gross.

Bayside Shakedown 3 was at $28.5m after 9 days.

TOHO has reported the Top 10 films from their locations. Warner and Shikoku to report in shortly.

1. The Borrower Arrietty
2. Toy Story 3
3. Bayside THE MOVIE3
4. Pocket Monsters Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark
5. Predators
6. Confession 　
7. The Last Airbender
8. Surely Someday
9. Sword of Desperation
10. Anpanman the Movie (2010)

Looks like Predators held up well in Japan

Maybe. The openings for The Last Airbender and Surely Someday don't look like much, so it wouldn't take much of a hold to have beaten them it appears.

Anyway, it's currently Monday, 14:40 (2:40PM) in Japan, which is Umi no Hi (Marine Day), and the big three are selling out about every show at all locations, all advance ticket sales/seat available below:

Roppongi, Tokyo

Arrietty
14:50 - 148/148
16:20 - 595/644
17:20 - 129/148

Bayside Shakedown 3
15:00 - 180/180
16:00 - 120/124

Toy Story 3 (3D)
15:05 - 354/369
15:50 - 148/164



Umeda Cinema, Osaka

Arrietty
15:45 - 712/747 (what a massive seating area)
16:50 - 086/095

Bayside Shakedown 3
15:00 - 470/470
17:00 - 096/099

Toy Story 3 (3D)
15:15 - 455/475
16:30 - 123/152



Miyoshi, Aichi

Arrietty
14:45 - 423/519
15:00 - 087/124
16:35 - 113/519
17:20 - 098/124

Bayside Shakedown 3
14:30 - 155/155
16:40 - 155/228
17:50 - 051/155

Toy Story 3 (3D)
14:35 - 124/124
15:30 - 201/201
18:10 - 170/201


Monday is going to be bigger than Saturday and Sunday, and at this rate, people are going to be turned away with advance bookings alone selling out the shows for today and this evening.

Weekend Results will be available soon.

Shikoku
1. The Borrower Arrietty
2. Bayside THE MOVIE3
3. Toy Story 3
4. Pocket Monsters Diamond & Pearl Ruler of Illusions: Zoroark
5. Predators
6. Confessions
7. The Last Airbender
8. Sword of Desperation
9. Surely Someday
10. The Extraordinary Adventures of Adele

Just Warner left to report in before the Overall Top 10 for this past weekend is revealed, although Warner didn't report in last weekend.

I am guessing these are admissions rankings right? Or is it that TBA out-grossed TS3 and Bay3 ? Could it be that TS3 with higher ticket price can be ranked #1 this week as well if these are only admissions rankings?