I definitley agree about POTC moving to 2008. I mean, releasing movies back to back or in the same year never works. Only LOTR has been able to do it and that had the uber loonie fanbase, and the knowledge that they were always going to be back to back. Give it 2 years, room to breathe, hype to grow. Then own 2008.

HP5 should NOT move. I mean, the the 7th book is coming out a week before. Hype is going to be CRAZY come July 2007. July 2007 will be known as Potter Month. The book release I think can really generate so much buzz that HP5 OW is going to be HUGE(115m+). With November, yeah it will get better legs, but I think the better opening would help HP5 more than better legs.

I actually think POTC3 should get out of summer 2007 in general. Summer 2008 is getting crowded now, BUT...it still lacks that 300m lock film. It has two films with 300m+ potential(TDK and Narnia), and possibly one more(IJ4 if its made), but none are locks. I think POTC3 would perform much better in summer 2008 than in summer 2007. Though I doubt Disney makes the change as without POTC3, Disney would only have one big film in summer 2007, and they already have two big films in summer 2008.

Right now, I think TDK is 99% locked for June release. I think TDK and Wall-E will be the two big blockbusters of June 2008, and both can do extremely well as June can allow both to get huge OW and still get some good legs. I expect a June 13th or June 20th release for TDK now. June 13th I think would be best as that still allows for big OW and still get some good legs.

Now as for Memorial Day: I think JPIV will take the slot. It would be perfect. The film would be aimed for teens/adults, so both JPIV and Narnia 2 can co-exist during Memorial Day holiday. Plus, JPIV is a film that I think would benefit A LOT from a holiday release. JPIV is one of those films that people look at and say, "eh...I may go see that." With the Memorial Day holiday, that "may" turns into "will" as people have the extra incentive to push them to see it.

Here's how May 2008 looks to me now:

May 2nd: Iron Man
May 9th: Ender's Game, if it can get done in time. I'm 100% sure if Ender's Game is completed it will have this slot. Troy and Posiedon, two other Wolfgang Peterson WB summer films, both had same frame. This won't be different
May 16th: Narnia: Prince Caspian
Memorial Day: JPIV

That actually looks like a pretty strong May to me. Iron Man has 100m+ potential, Ender's Game has 100m+ potential(though this probably will be another dissapointment for WB and Wolfgang peterson, but its still got potential), Narnia has 275+ potential, and JPIV has 175m+ potential.

Here's how June 2008 looks to me now:

June 6th: Kung Fu Panda
June 13th: TDK
June 27th: Wall-E

A very strong June. Kung Fu Panda should do 125m+, Wall-E could do anything from 200m to 275m, and TDK has 275m+ potential.

Now, this leaves July and August 2008 open for films like Mummy 3, IJ4, Brazillian Job, Avatar, Wonder Woman, and Star Trek XI. Looks like summer 2008 actually could be a summer where studios actually release films equally apart from each other so that they don't kill themselves.

I highly doubt the film would get leaked if they just waited another year. And yes, I think they should wait a year considring that they could potentailly make 200m+ more WW I think with a July 2008 release. 200m is worth the wait.

I highly doubt the film would get leaked if they just waited another year. And yes, I think they should wait a year considring that they could potentailly make 200m+ more WW I think with a July 2008 release. 200m is worth the wait.

Am I the only one who thinks that this could make more then either of the new Spider-Man or Shrek films? I don't disagree that it's in the best interest of all three franchises to spread out a bit - though to be fair history has shown that May can support up to five huge films - but this really doesn't have anything to worry about. The Matrix Revolutions didn't bomb because it was getting released right after Reloaded, it bombed because 1. People were very dissapointed with Reloaded and 2. The toxic WOM made the five day opening one of the biggest mistakes in recent blockbuster history.

POTC2 WOM was not that great. Honestly, I feel a big reason why its legs were good was because of the lack of competition. I mean, the first 'big' film to challenge POTC2 was TN, and that was on POTC2 5th weekend. POTC2 was dissapointing to most people. My point is that POTC3 is a film that I think viewers would see if they didn't have that many other options. In July 2008, movie-goers probably wouldn't have that many other options than POTC3. In summer 2007 however, they have many other options.

BUT...as MadGez said, its a bit too late now. But my point is that if Disney was smart, they would have delayed POTC3 shooting right when they saw summer 2007 to get crowded.

I mean, I think the three films can co-exist and each get 350m+. But...I think if you take POTC3 out of the equation, both SM3 and SHrek 2 will do 375m+ for sure, and POTC3 has a shot at 400m+ possibly in July 2008. Honestly, July 2008 is SO perfect for POTC3. Disney should have been able to see this coming and pushed POTC3 back when they could have. Now its too late.

Yeah, the comic-book genre will be tested in 2008. TDK, Iron Man, Hulk 2, Wolverine, Hellboy 2, and possibly Punisher 2 and Wonder Woman.

I think Hulk 2 will in the end move probably to 2009. I haven't heard that much of the project and I find it surprising the Marvel will released its first two big films so close to each other. And if it doesn't...well, its only hurting itself. I mean, in its spot it is going to have Iron Man and TDK(most likley) before it, and then Wolverine after it.

Wolverine I think is heading for a July 2008 release. Probably get 3rd or 4th weekend simliar to what X-men got. TDK I think is still heading for a June 13th release date. Best release date I think for it at this point to seperate itself from any big films really. July 4th weekend is still possible for it too.

Hobbit, forgot about that. If TS3 and Hobbit are confirmed for 2009, the year should be solid. 2010 is safe IMO as it has Shrek 4 and HP7, and possibly POTC/SM sequels.

The BO looks safe for a while now it seems. In the next four years, the only one that is a bit iffy is 2009 but that just needs as I said 1-2 projects like Hobbit or TS3.

Yeah, 2010 will be the end of the uber-franchises I think as well. HP will be done, Shrek will probably be done, SM will be done.

Maybe then original ideas will come to Hollywood? I mean, to me, it just seems inevitable that eventually, people won't care for sequels anymore. I mean, a trilogy is acceptable in most eyes, but once you start getting into the fourth, fixth, etc. installments, you're pushing it.

Batman franchise ends in 2011. I could see possibly a fourth POTC. SM4-SM6 may be made, but will be with a new cast and possibly new director. I think new franchises are going to be born in the next decade. After 2007-2010, people will be sick of the current franchises. Hell, people are already sick of a lot of franchises right now, and most of these franchises only have two installments released so far.

Eh, thing is that I think the movie industry is about to change dramatically. There are little signs everywhere that show that a drastic change is coming/needed for the indsutry.

Yeah, 2010 will be the end of the uber-franchises I think as well. HP will be done, Shrek will probably be done, SM will be done.

Yeah sure new franchises will start but what Magnus and myself were saying is that the current batch of uber franchises (from the 00s) will end roughly with the beginning of the new decade. Offcourse there will be overlap but I think its fair to say that an era will close just as im sure a new one will begin.

Who knows - greek myths, more fantasy books adapted, monsters, star trek reborn, a new sci fi series, star wars sequels (IV - IX), mockumentaries etc - could be anything that becomes big in the new decade. I mean who saw Shrek coming for example or even Pirates.