映画.com ニュース］　織田裕二の主演最新作「踊る大捜査線 THE MOVIE 3 ヤツらを解放せよ！」が7月3日、全国447スクリーンで封切られ、大ヒットスタートを切った。主演の織田や柳葉敏郎らが登壇した舞台挨拶が全国41スクリーンで同時生中継されたこの日、正午時点で実写邦画史上最高となる観客動員1260万人、興行収入173億5000万円を記録した前作「踊る大捜査線 THE MOVIE 2 レインボーブリッジを封鎖せよ！」（2003）対比で102％。配給の東宝は、「興収100億円越えは確実」とコメントを発表した。

http://eiga.com/buzz/20100703/4/



Bayside Shakedown 3 is now tracking at 102%, evenings added, of Bayside Shakedown 2 with the night showings to go. Currently 6pm.

That changes the above projection drastically. The rainy weather might be having a postive effect.

A few first day figures have come in,

Bayside Shakedown 3
TOHO: 19667/36948
MOVIX: 16176/26454
TOTAL: 35843/63402

TOHO: 29712/56383
MOVIX: 17712/30266
TOTAL: 47424/86649

_______________________________________________________

Alice in Wonderland
TOHO: 18904/31636
MOVIX: 18674/25996
TOTAL: 37578/57632

TOHO: 28044/46778
MOVIX: 20311/28526
TOTAL: 48355/75304



The first data released for Bayside Shakedown 3 puts it almost even with Alice in Wonderland the first day from these locations. 3D prices are a huge advantage for Alice, but the current exchange rate is much better now than in April.

Alice in Wonderland had an opening day of 700 million yen ($7.6m back in the spring), and a 2day total of 1.310 billion yen ($14.1m back in the spring) with 828,149 admissions on 859 screens (2nd highest, behind Pirates 3). Bayside Shakedown 3 opened on 447 screens (3rd highest for a local film).

It's currently the biggest Opening Weekend of the year, and you'd have to go all the way back to 2007 to find a 2day Opening Weekend higher than Alice's. To date, Alice has grossed 11.63 billion yen ($132m).

_________________________________________________
Nodame Cantabile The Movie II
TOHO: 8902/19044
MOVIX: 7938/11332
TOTAL: 16840/30376

Nodame Cantabile II is currently Toho's biggest opening this year, opening to 564 million yen ($6.1m back in the spring) with 437,613 admissions for the 2day, and Bayside Shakedown 3, so far, has done more than double from the same locations.

Awesome for Bayside Shakedown 3.



Are these admission numbers?

I believe so, but I can't say with absolute certainty because it's not stated. And that's just those two chains, probably in the same region. Most of the Movix Cinemas are located in the Kyoto region, so I'm guessing the numbers are from that area. Osaka is the region I'm most interested in, since BS3 should have beat Alice handily there. Evening sellouts were reported there during the day, yesterday.

No opening day admissions figure were given for Alice, but rough calculations would result in about 445,000-460,000 admissions, so the numbers, if admissions (85,933 total), above would represent about 20% of the first day's total admissions.

And I was right about Toho giving Bayside Shakedown 3 a screen contract, it's to remain on Toho screens until December before losing any. Same time frame given to Ponyo, which lost it's first Toho screens at the end of November.

Top 10, 2-Day Opening Weekends (Local)

1. 2004, Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) - Y1,483,843,060 ($14m)/ 1,104,980 admissions (448 screens)
2. 2003, Bayside Shakedown 2 (Toho) - Y1,237,750,000 ($10.5m) / 865,553 admissions (408 screens)
3. 2009, Rookies Graduation (Toho) - Y1,225,278,650 ($12.9m) / 987,387 admissions (428 screens)
4. 2009, One Piece Strong World (TOEI) - Y1,038,439,600 ($11.7m) / 819,738 admissions (188 screens)
5. 2008, Ponyo (Toho) - 1,025,472,300 ($9.7m) / 812,557 admissions (481 screens)
6. 2007, Hero (Toho) - Y1,009,473,875 ($8.7m) / 749,807 admissions (475 screens)
7. 2008, Boys Over Flowers Final (Toho) - Y1,005,798,910 ($9.6m) / 805,350 admissions (400 screens)
8. 2001, Spirited Away (Toho) - Y1,001,000,120 ($8.6m) / 810,006 admissions (318 screens)
9. 2006, Umizaru 2 (Toho) - Y965,328,035 ($8.5m) / 691,293 admissions (315 screens)
10. 2006, Tales of Earthsea (Toho) - Y907,474,600 ($7.9m) / 672,696 admissions (435 screens)


Bayside Shakedown 3 is still being reported at being 102% of Bayside Shakedown 2, so the weekend could be, Y1,250,000,000-Y1,300,000,000 ($14-$15m) / 875,000-890,000 admissions (447 screens), if it maintained that pace for Sunday as well. Howl's Moving Castle looks safe (in Yen), but it could fall in USD.

No opening day number has been released though, unfortunately.

Btw, Umizaru 3 comes out in September, the first local film in 3D and will get over 400 screens according to Toho. So it's definitely one to watch this fall.

So it's going to fight it out with Howl's Moving Castle for the top opening spot...very nice indeed, go Bayside Shakedown.

Doesn't Toy Story 3 open next week....muahahahah, it's going to get crushed.

If it can maintain Saturday's momentum into Sunday, it would beat Howl's Moving Castle. But right now it's an unknown how it's performing today. It's mid-day in Japan, so perhaps an opening day figure or Sunday update will be released soon.

As for Toy Story 3, the release date is very poor. The usual December release would have been a much better spot.

It's still going to do very well, I'd go with an opening above Up ($7m), but if Bayside does indeed open to $14m or so, Toy Story won't be opening at No.1 next weekend. Toy Story won't have to worry about opening against Pokemon because of the fanbase, but Ghibli's latest opens just a week later. Arrietty opening to Tales of Earthsea's 2day would give it a $10m opening, and it's just not going to drop much below that being Ghibli. Y700-750 million yen ($8-8.5m) is the minimum for it.

Toho Cinema's have reported in with their Top 10 for the weekend.

TOHO
1. Bayside THE MOVIE3 (Toho)
2 Confession (Toho) Week 5
3 Adel / Reagents and The Resurrected Pharaoh (Asmik Ace)
4 Iron Man 2 (Paramount) Week 4
5 Sex and the City 2 (WB) Week 5
6 Kamen Rider Episode Yellow (TOEI) Week 3
7 The Book of Eli (Kadokawa-Herald) Week 3
8 Repo Man
9 Piecing Me Back Together (SPD) Week 3
10 Flowers (Toho) Week 4


Movix and I think one other chain (WB or Shikoku probably) will report in before overall rankings and numbers will be released (next 6-9 hours usually).

Not sure who distributed Repo Man.

Top 10 Films at Shikoku locations this past weekend:

Shikoku
1. Bayside THE MOVIE3
2. Adel / Reagents and Resurrected Pharaoh
3. Confessions 　
4. Iron Man 2
5. Kamen Rider Episode Yellow
6. Haru no Tabi
7. Sex and the City 2
8. The Book of Eli
9. Alice in Wonderland
10. RAILWAYS

Top 10 Films at Warner locations:

Warner
1. Bayside THE MOVIE3
2. Confessions
3. Adel / Reagents and Resurrected Pharaoh
4. Iron Man 2
5. Alice in Wonderland
6. Sex and the City 2
7. The Book of Eli
8. Kamen Rider Episode Yellow
9. Outrage
10. Repo Man

Top 10, 2-Day Opening Weekends (Local)

1. 2004, Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) - Y1,483,843,060 ($14m)/ 1,104,980 admissions (448 screens)
2. 2003, Bayside Shakedown 2 (Toho) - Y1,237,750,000 ($10.5m) / 865,553 admissions (408 screens)
3. 2009, Rookies Graduation (Toho) - Y1,225,278,650 ($12.9m) / 987,387 admissions (428 screens)
4. 2009, One Piece Strong World (TOEI) - Y1,038,439,600 ($11.7m) / 819,738 admissions (188 screens)
5. 2008, Ponyo (Toho) - 1,025,472,300 ($9.7m) / 812,557 admissions (481 screens)
6. 2007, Hero (Toho) - Y1,009,473,875 ($8.7m) / 749,807 admissions (475 screens)
7. 2008, Boys Over Flowers Final (Toho) - Y1,005,798,910 ($9.6m) / 805,350 admissions (400 screens)
8. 2001, Spirited Away (Toho) - Y1,001,000,120 ($8.6m) / 810,006 admissions (318 screens)
9. 2010, Bayside Shakedown 3 (Toho) - Y971,993,450 ($11.1m) / 707,339 admissions (447 screens)
10. 2006, Umizaru 2 (Toho) - Y965,328,035 ($8.5m) / 691,293 admissions (315 screens)

Leaving the chart: 11. 2006, Tales of Earthsea (Toho) - Y907,474,600 ($7.9m) / 672,696 admissions (435 screens)

USD Top 5

1. Howl's Moving Castle - $14
2. Rookies Graduation - $12.9m
3. One Piece Strong World - $11.7m
4. Bayside Shakedown 3 - $11.1m
5. Bayside Shakedown 2 - $10.5m

Bayside Shakedown 3 saw a pretty big Sunday drop (by local standards) of about 35%, causing it to just miss Y1 billion Yen in it's opening.

The reason could be because of the 7 year wait, add in the live cast greeting that was broadcast throughout the country opening day, causing an unusual rush factor that's very rare in the territory.

It's a very good opening, but perhaps a bit less than expected. Toho was anticipating a Y1 billion opening, and I do like how they didn't attempt to fudge the numbers to get it over the mark.

On the plus side, the exchange rate right now really helps, and Bayside 3 actually opens higher than Bayside 2 in USD, ranking 4th on the chart, despite the drop off in local currency and admissions.

It's very difficult to predict where it goes from here, the Sunday drop is a bit concerning, but can be contributed to the 7 year wait and all the promotions that went on opening day, such as the live cast greeting. It will remain on all Toho screens until December, so the legs should be quite strong. Next weekend will help project where it could finish.

It's going to be a three way race for the No.1 spot next weekend now.

Do you still think it's a sure thing for $150+ million?

No, $150m isn't happening unless it gets some massive legs somehow.

It's tough to predict a range for it based on 2days. But, here are some totals it could finish with based on previous films multipliers on the charts above:

Rookies and Umizaru 2 multipliers would result in - $78m
Boys Over Flowers multiplier would result in - $95m
Hero multiplier would result in - $99m
Bayside Shakedown 2 multiplier would result in - $172m

I'd rule out a multiplier similar to Rookies and Umizaru 2, and I'd also rule out the Bayside Shakedown 2 multiplier.

I'm thinking, based on just 2days, a multiplier just a little higher than Boys Over Flowers and Hero since Bayside Shakedown 3 will be in theaters for much longer (into 2011) due to it's Toho contract. So $105-$115m would be my range at the moment.

It's actually possible Umizaru 3 this September can beat Bayside Shakedown 3 based on it's first 2 days. Opening weekend being likely, in my opinion.

Umizaru 2, like Bayside Shakedown 2, increased a great deal from their predecessors, but Umizaru 3 has already been announced to open on over 400 screens (bigger jump than the Bayside series), with 100 being 3D making it the first local 3D film to be released in theaters.

And September/October normally aren't strong months, and a big film release dominates until November most of the time (just like Hero in 2007 and 20th Century Boys 3 last year), so it won't have nearly as much competition.

Hmmmm, couldn't quite stick it through Sunday, the records are safe.

Well, then Avatar is safe as #1 of the year.

Yes, especially since it's being re-released in the market soon.

I don't know the date, but it was announced not long ago.

A preview is about to be posted for those interested, so don't go to bed just yet.

July 10-11 Preview: Three Way Race For The Top - Bayside Shakedown 3 VS Toy Story 3 VS Pokemon 13


With Bayside Shakedown 3 opening a little below expectations, No.1 this coming weekend becomes a possibility for the two big openers, Toy Story 3 and Pokemon 13, but it won't be that easy for them.

The Pixar Films are a bit scattered on how well they've performed in the market, but like most territories, they've become a well known and respected name and consistently perform well at the box office.

The Pokemon Films have been in release for just as long as Pixar, and year after year, the fans come out in support for their favorite pocket monsters. And over the past few years, the franchise has seen a steady increase in revenue.

The charts below are going to be in local currency only. Because, 1.) It's impossible to know an exact USD total for the earlier films, and 2.) Ticket prices in Japan have remained almost the same for a decade now, so it's almost always comparable in gross and admissions. I'll provide USD totals on the side, BUT THE USD TOTALS ARE NOT WHAT THEY GROSSED, BUT WHAT IT'D BE TODAY, 7/5/2010, IF CONVERTED.


Pixar VS Pokemon: Totals

Pixar
1996, Toy Story - Y1.5 billion ($17.1m)
1998, A Bug's Life - Y1.9 billion($21.7m)
1999, Toy Story 2 - Y2 billion ($22.8m)
2002, Monsters Inc. - Y9.5 billion ($108.5m)
2003, Finding Nemo - Y11.0 billion ($125.6m)
2004, The Incredibles - Y5.3 billion ($60.5m)
2006, Cars - Y2.3 billion ($26.3m)
2007, Ratatouille - Y3.9 billion ($44.5m)
2008, Wall-E - Y4.0 billion ($45.7m)
2009, Up - Y4.8 billion ($54.8m)

Avg. - Y5.1 billion ($58.2m)



Pokemon
1998, Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Y4.9 billion ($56m)
1999, Pokemon 2: The Power Of One - Y4.1 billion ($46.8m)
2000, Pokemon 3: Spell of the Unown - Y3.7 billion ($42.2m)
2001, Pokemon 4: Celebi: Voice of the Forest - Y2.8 billion ($32m)
2002, Pokemon 5: Heroes Latios and Latias - Y2.3 billion ($26.2m)
2003, Pokemon 6: Jirachi Wishmaker - Y3.2 billion ($36.5m)
2004, Pokemon 7: Destiny Deoxys - Y4.4 billion ($50.2m)
2005, Pokemon 8: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew - Y4.3 billion ($49.1m)
2006, Pokemon 9: Pokémon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea - Y3.5 billion ($40m)
2007, Pokémon 10: The Rise of Darkrai - Y5.0 billion ($57.1m)
2008, Pokemon 11: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Y4.8 billion ($54.8m)
2009, Pokémon 12: Arceus and the Jewel of Life - Y4.7 billion ($53.7m)

Avg. Y3.7 billion ($42.2m)



_________________________________________________________________________

Pixar (2003 - ) VS Pokemon (2003 - ): Openings

Pixar
Dec. 2003, Finding Nemo - Y1,116,200,000 ($12.8m) / 898,562 admissions
Dec. 2004, The Incredibles - Y749,758,150 ($8.6m) / 612,982 admissions
July. 2006, Cars - Y380,145,620 ($4.4m) / 350,747 admissions
July. 2007, Ratatouille - Unknown / Unknown
Dec. 2008, Wall-E - Y451,660,250 ($5.2m) / 419,748 admissions
Dec. 2009, Up - Y627,726,600 ($7.2m) / 440,804 admissions


Pokemon
July. 2003, Pokemon 6 - Unknown / Unknown
July. 2004, Pokemon 7 - Y500,186,980 ($5.7m) / Unknown
July. 2005, Pokemon 8 - Y536,412,440 ($6.1m) / 504,402 admissions
July. 2006, Pokemon 9 - Y416,381,335 ($4.7m) / 479,006 admissions
July. 2007, Pokemon 10 - Y780,871,175 ($8.9m) / 657,132 admissions
July. 2008, Pokemon 11 - Y703,799,690 ($8m) / 636,709 admissions
July. 2009, Pokemon 12 - Y672,875,650 ($7.7m) / 641,697 admissions


___________________________________________________________________________


Toy Story 3 is expected to open higher than Up, and as you can see from 2009, Pokemon 12 had 200,000 more admissions than Up but barely beat it because of Up's 3D prices.

So Toy Story 3 doesn't have to really come near Pokemon's admissions (and probably won't) to open higher this weekend. But can Pokemon 13 continue the franchises success, possibly increasing from movie 12? It's definitely possible, and opening against Toy Story 3 means nothing. Pikachu has opened against Harry Potters, Pirates, and Studio Ghibli in the past, losing what seems like no audience at all due to the loyal fanbase.

Trying to hold both Toy Story 3 and Pokemon 13 off will be Bayside Shakedown 3. Bayside Shakedown 3 will likely need to see a drop over 25/30% to lose, but these big films during the summer normally see minimal second weekend, and future drops for weeks: Rookies (-15%), Ponyo (-20%), Boys Over Flowers (-25%).

So all three films have equal chance of coming out on top this coming weekend, which is sure to be an exciting one.

Predators is also opening, but... yeah.

Very impressed with both studious and franchies, they've deliveverd consistently. Pokemon is probably the longest running franchise in Japan. It's like the James Bond pics.

What do i read, Avatar gets re-released soon in Japan? Nice!

I wonder if Germany will get a rerelease too. It'll need it to make it to 11 million admissions it seems. Shrek 4 took almost all 3D screens from Avatar, Dragon and Alice.

I wonder, though, is it the supposed extended cut or the normal cut that gets re-released in Japan soon? Any info?

If the studio goes through with the extended cut re-release, i imagine it'll be in most markets, at least the important ones.

That would be Doraemon, I believe. The 30th film was released this past March. Detective Conan and Crayon-shin chan have more installments as well, 14 and 18. All three see annual releases (Doraemon in March, Conan and Crayon in April).

And I bet Kamen Rider is up there, too. Not sure a total off the top of my head, but a new film is released every 6 months or less it seems. 4 have been in just the past 8 months, and there'll be another in August.

Weekend Rankings, July 3-4



1 N Bayside Shakedown 3 (Toho)
2 1 Confessions (Toho) 5
3 N The Adventures of Adel (Asmik Ace)
4 2 Iron Man 2 (Paramount) 4
5 4 Sex and the City 2 (WB) 5
6 3 Kamen Rider Episode Yellow (TOEI) 3
7 6 Outrage (WB/Office Kitano) 4
8 5 Book of Eli, The (Kadokawa/Shochiku) 3
9 7 Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 12
10 N Lost Crime (300 Million) (Kadokawa)

It looked like Repo Man was going to sneak into the Top 10 based on the first theater chains reporting it, but it just misssed.

No numbers, except for Bayside Shakedown 3 (previous page), yet, but I'll edit this post when they're released for select films. Most interested in seeing how Confessions held up this weekend, being the first it's seen a drop of any kind.

Just bumping to this page since it was near the bottom of the other, much easier to locate here when needed.

July 10-11 Preview: Three Way Race To The Top - Bayside Shakedown 3 VS Toy Story 3 VS Pokemon 13


With Bayside Shakedown 3 opening a little below expectations, No.1 this coming weekend becomes a possibility for the two big openers, Toy Story 3 and Pokemon 13, but it won't be that easy for them.


The Pixar Films are a bit scattered on how well they've performed in the market, but like most territories, they've become a well known and respected name and consistently perform well at the box office.



The Pokemon Films have been in release for just as long as Pixar, and year after year, the fans come out in support for their favorite pocket monsters. And over the past few years, the franchise has seen a steady increase in revenue.

The charts below are going to be in local currency only. Because, 1.) It's impossible to know an exact USD total for the earlier films, and 2.) Ticket prices in Japan have remained almost the same for a decade now, so it's almost always comparable in gross and admissions. I'll provide USD totals on the side, BUT THE USD TOTALS ARE NOT WHAT THEY GROSSED, BUT WHAT IT'D BE TODAY, 7/5/2010, IF CONVERTED.


Pixar VS Pokemon: Totals

Pixar
1996, Toy Story - Y1.5 billion ($17.1m)
1998, A Bug's Life - Y1.9 billion($21.7m)
1999, Toy Story 2 - Y2 billion ($22.8m)
2002, Monsters Inc. - Y9.5 billion ($108.5m)
2003, Finding Nemo - Y11.0 billion ($125.6m)
2004, The Incredibles - Y5.3 billion ($60.5m)
2006, Cars - Y2.3 billion ($26.3m)
2007, Ratatouille - Y3.9 billion ($44.5m)
2008, Wall-E - Y4.0 billion ($45.7m)
2009, Up - Y4.8 billion ($54.8m)

Avg. - Y5.1 billion ($58.2m)



Pokemon
1998, Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Y4.9 billion ($56m)
1999, Pokemon 2: The Power Of One - Y4.1 billion ($46.8m)
2000, Pokemon 3: Spell of the Unown - Y3.7 billion ($42.2m)
2001, Pokemon 4: Celebi: Voice of the Forest - Y2.8 billion ($32m)
2002, Pokemon 5: Heroes Latios and Latias - Y2.3 billion ($26.2m)
2003, Pokemon 6: Jirachi Wishmaker - Y3.2 billion ($36.5m)
2004, Pokemon 7: Destiny Deoxys - Y4.4 billion ($50.2m)
2005, Pokemon 8: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew - Y4.3 billion ($49.1m)
2006, Pokemon 9: Pokémon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea - Y3.5 billion ($40m)
2007, Pokémon 10: The Rise of Darkrai - Y5.0 billion ($57.1m)
2008, Pokemon 11: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Y4.8 billion ($54.8m)
2009, Pokémon 12: Arceus and the Jewel of Life - Y4.7 billion ($53.7m)

Avg. Y3.7 billion ($42.2m)



_________________________________________________________________________

Pixar (2003 - ) VS Pokemon (2003 - ): Openings

Pixar
Dec. 2003, Finding Nemo - Y1,116,200,000 ($12.8m) / 898,562 admissions
Dec. 2004, The Incredibles - Y749,758,150 ($8.6m) / 612,982 admissions
July. 2006, Cars - Y380,145,620 ($4.4m) / 350,747 admissions
July. 2007, Ratatouille - Unknown / Unknown
Dec. 2008, Wall-E - Y451,660,250 ($5.2m) / 419,748 admissions
Dec. 2009, Up - Y627,726,600 ($7.2m) / 440,804 admissions


Pokemon
July. 2003, Pokemon 6 - Unknown / Unknown
July. 2004, Pokemon 7 - Y500,186,980 ($5.7m) / Unknown
July. 2005, Pokemon 8 - Y536,412,440 ($6.1m) / 504,402 admissions
July. 2006, Pokemon 9 - Y416,381,335 ($4.7m) / 479,006 admissions
July. 2007, Pokemon 10 - Y780,871,175 ($8.9m) / 657,132 admissions
July. 2008, Pokemon 11 - Y703,799,690 ($8m) / 636,709 admissions
July. 2009, Pokemon 12 - Y672,875,650 ($7.7m) / 641,697 admissions


___________________________________________________________________________


Toy Story 3 is expected to open higher than Up, and has the advantage with it's expensive 3D tickets, as you can see from 2009, Pokemon 12 had 200,000 more admissions than Up but barely beat it because of Up's 3D prices, and Pokemon's ticket price is below the average due to the younger audience getting discounts.

So Toy Story 3 doesn't have to really come near Pokemon's admissions (and probably won't) to open higher this weekend. But can Pokemon 13 continue the franchises success, possibly increasing from movie 12? It's definitely possible, and opening against Toy Story 3 means nothing. Pikachu has opened against Harry Potters, Pirates, and Studio Ghibli in the past, losing what seems like no audience at all due to the loyal fanbase.

Trying to hold both Toy Story 3 and Pokemon 13 off will be Bayside Shakedown 3. Bayside Shakedown 3 will likely need to see a drop over 25/30% to lose, but these big films during the summer normally see minimal second weekend, and future drops for weeks: Rookies (-15%), Ponyo (-20%), Boys Over Flowers (-25%).

So all three films have equal chance of coming out on top this coming weekend, which is sure to be an exciting one.

Predators is also opening, but... yeah.