I don't think so since all 5 chains seem to be reporting their numbers. The 40% was probably just for the seatings and showtimes.

8 pm (down from last saturday)

83,881 - Cinderella *NEW*
63,486 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 49.5%)
53,887 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 58.4%)

Not sure if that drop is looking good for DBZ, if it drops 58% this weekend it'd only make ¥403 million.

It might not drop that much but still.

Should we still be expecting it to make more on Saturday than Sunday?

No. This time I think it will behave like a normal animated movie and make more on sunday which will soften the weekend drop.

Well I hope that's the case then.

Golden Week is next week right? What dates do people have off is it the whole week or just certain days?

The 29th of april and the 3rd, 4th and 5th of may. But since the 3rd is a sunday I think they'll also have the 6th of may. Many people take the whole week though. Movies next weekend will have very small drops if not increases.

There any other big movies opening next weekend?

Not that I know of. All big movies have generally opened by the last weekend of april.

9 pm (down from last saturday) :

91,426 - Cinderella *NEW*
69,084 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 48.8%)
59,771 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 58.6%)

10 pm (down from last saturday) :

93,711 - Cinderella *NEW*
70,031 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 49.3%)
60,856 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 59.3%)

So if you had to guess what Conan and DBZ will make this weekend based on these figures what would you go with?

I'll tell you that when we get the final numbers for today in 1h30.

11 pm (down from last saturday) :

94,456 - Cinderella *NEW*
70,492 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (down 49.8%)
61,321 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (down 59.6%)

Ok so with the midnight numbers out, let's use last weekend's multipliers for estimates.

Daily admissions :
Conan : 70715*2,393 = 169,221
DBZ : 61697*2,469=152,330

Daily grosses :
Conan : 169,221*1270.306 = 215 million yen
DBZ : 152,330*1342.11 = 204 million yen

However DBZ's 3D share seems to have decreased a bit from what I can see so the average ticket price might be a bit lower making the daily gross go below 200 million.

Anyway, ignoring that for now and going with a 5 to 10% increase for both movies tomorrow, we can imagine the following weekend totals :

Conan : 345-355k admissions for 440-450 million yen
DBZ : 310-320k admissions for 420-430 million yen

You came to the same conclusion as me then, I was thinking about ¥420 million or something for DBZ.

That'd be hugely disappointing. Battle of Gods made about that much on its second weekend.

I don't see how ¥4 billion would be possible with that amount.

Well, it will likely make the same amount next weekend, if not a little more. And with Golden Week days I really don't see how it's going to miss ¥4 billion. Might not be making much more than that though.

When you said that they take the rest of the week off, for Golden Week, were you referring to April 30th and May 1st or May 6th until the 8th?

The website I'm looking at says May 6th is Constitution Memorial Day.

April 30th and May 1st based on how most movies fell 60-70% during the 10-11th of may weekend last year.

The guy on Boxoffice.com has given Saturday updates. They're higher than what we figured, not sure why but the ¥232 million for DBZ, I'd be fine with that figure if it can indeed make more tommorow.

¥500 million probably unlikely but not impossible.

His estimates seem too high imo. I wonder how he computed them.

Well he got the ¥232 million from 171,000 admissions at at average ticket price of ¥1,352 which is 10 more than the average from the previous weekend actuals for some reason.

The admissions seems high though. No idea about that, unless it was a lower percent on the tickets compared to last week, 40% vs 43% but even that would be too low.

Usual Locations (43% of Market) - Saturday Admissions (04/25)

Admissions (% change) [#Theaters/#Showtimes] - Film (Distributor) Week of Release
94,853 (--) [150/1,100] - Cinderella (Disney) NEW
70,813 (-50%) [144/814] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) Week 2
61,697 (-60%) [144/932] - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) Week 2
44,497 (--) [148/859] - Parasyte (Part 2) (Toho) NEW
43,471 (-46%) [148/800] - Furious 7 (Toho-Towa) Week 2
33,106 (-40%) [143/558] - Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Toho) Week 2
28,484 (--) [107/527] - Ryuzo and the Seven Henchmen (Warner Bros.) NEW
9,461 (--) [23/113] - Beyond the Boundary: I'll Be Here (Part 2) (Shochiku) NEW
9,128 (--) [138/606] - Chateau de la Reine (Toei) NEW
5,598 (-29%) [12/51] - Whiplash (Gaga) Week 2
4,803 (-51%) [134/170] - Assassination Classroom (Toho) Week 6

Strong first day for Cinderella. It'll break 200,000 admissions at the usual locations after Sunday, maybe around 210,000 admissions, so it's looking at an opening weekend very comparable to that of last year's Maleficent.

Cinderella should break 500,000 admissions over the weekend, and earn somewhere between ¥600-700 million, depending on how young it's skewing.

Parasyte (Part 2) is doing alright, but no better than the debut of the first film. It's aiming for a ¥300-350 million debut based on Saturday's results.

Detective Conan and Dragon Ball Z see expected Saturday drops following their massive openings last weekend, but they'll improve for the weekend frame as Sunday will have better holds (percentage wise). Both films are targeting ¥500 million or so second weekends.

Also, very bad for Chateau de la Reine.

Apparently he got the market shares respective to each film somehow. It would still be somewhat surprising that the multiplier would change that much from one week to the next for those 2 movies.

But with both him and Corpse having similar estimates, I must be doing something wrong somewhere and/or missing data.

I get around ¥230 million for Detective Conan, and ¥210 million for Dragon Ball Z.

Detective Conan will have a nice Sunday increase, so it'll be close to ¥500 million or slightly above the mark for its second weekend.

Dragon Ball Z doesn't look like it'll reach ¥500 million to me right now, as its Sunday increase will be weaker, but it should still come pretty close with ¥450 million+ (¥500 million isn't unreachable).

Ah well then your estimate for Conan is right in the middle of edroger's and mine and the one for DBZ is extremely close to my own. Hopefully, like last week, both films end up increasing compared to estimates.

Yeah the other guy got higher estimates because according to him the ticket sales for DBZ and Conan were only 36% of the total as opposed to the 43%.

Where he got that 36% figure from though he hasn't said.

43% is the average market share of these chains though. Of course it doesn't mean all the movies will be doing 43% of their admissions there. Last weekend DBZ did about 40% of its admissions at these chains and Conan 41.7% so 36% for both of them seems awfully low, unless there's some kind of discout going on at Aeon.

Well he did say tomorow it'd be a market share of 41% and 43.5% for Conan and DBZ respectively which is about right so yeah I'm not sure why it'd be as low as 36% for Saturday or where he is getting this info from.