I'm now expecting a photo finish win for Man of Steel.

Iron Man 3:

Fri: 67.22m
Sat: 53.88m -19%
Sun: 37.11m -31%

Opening Wknd: 158.21m

Man of Steel:

Fri: 57.99m
Sat: 50.66m -12%
Sun: 50.12m -1% (Fathers Day)

Opening Wknd: 158.77m

MOS opening to TDK and TDKR numbers?

Wouldn't that be something

It would be cool but MOS is hyped but nowhere near TDK or TDKR so out.

I love your prediction BJ, but Father's day will at least be 7-15% drop, probably the latter

I think people are way over-estimating MoS OW. It could be a movie that we have never predicted but it surely won't be MoS to win the OW battle this summer. IM3 even if it disappoints will open to $125m OW.

If IM3 opens that low summer 2013 is a wash...

Yeah because people will really say "Honey, Iron Man 3 only opened to $125 million. Guess that means everything else is shit and we shouldn't go see any movies this summer."

No lol

That means if IM3 does not open well not a good sign for the health of the box office.

The underperformance of Im2 showed and we got a rather weak summer.

IM3 is tracking toward a $160M opening in the U.S. and I doubt anything will come close to that this summer.

IM3 pretty much has this in the bag already.

I am seeing 150 million and no records will be set.

Only big number will be IM3 Saturday which should easily be the 2nd biggest ever.

Regal is now pulling IM3 advertising from their theaters because of the BO-split dispute. If the film ends up not playing at Regal, AMC and/or Cinemark theaters on OW, could it even crack $100M?

Here in the San Francisco Bay Area, I can count the non-Big 3 locations showing IM3 on one hand. I'm getting worried that if Disney and the Big 3 don't reach an agreement, IM3 will flop on OW due to the severely reduced amount of locations.

Is this a valid concern, or am I just paranoid? Is there any chance that this won't be resolved by OW? And are people hyped enough for IM3 that they'll go out of their way to see it OW even if many U.S. theaters refuse to play it?

They always settle before opening...

It'll get resolved, my AMC theater is already selling tickets for it.

You all seem to treat this as a non-issue. I'm a newbie to this whole thing, so I guess I can be forgiven for acting like this is some huge deal, seeing as this is simply the first time I've heard of something like this happening.

But I'm still holding onto my backup preorder for a non-Big 3 screening until I can be sure...

It happens from time to time, especially with huge (expected) Blockbusters. And again, they always settle before opening...

I'll take your word for it.

As I've said before, if it ends up being resolved very close to the opening, I can see huge lines at the box office, of all the people who didn't lock in presales before the dispute. It'd be just like the "old days."

I think while the lines may be bigger in some spots, thats only because normal line waiting. Most general people really don't do pre sales. I don't even do them anymore. Nowadays the only kind of a film you get pushed away from is an highly buzzed independent film because they don't have the showtimes for it. That happened to me once in 5 years, and that was Gran Torrino, before that Passion of the Christ. I think the last film I actually had to buy tickets before hand for a midnight showing was Sith.

I'm really excited about Episode 7, might actually make a midnight showing memorable again.

It will get settled and most people would buy advance tickets on Thu Friday of the films release.

Anyways its heading for a big opening not over 160 million but past 140 million for sure.

It would be nuts to delay the release of the film...
Star Trek will be big but that is still 2 weeks away...

If I can I try to watch starwars at midnight because they are soo much fun with the diehards. Ep7 should be amazing

I think WOM will drive the film to a massive Sunday. If its not that good than the film will fall 20% on Sat and 15% on Sun. I do think a 60m+ opening day is in play.

Ep3 and Spider-man 2 are my favorite midnight experiences, TS3 at IMAX was pretty awesome as well, bunch of 20+ year olds crazy about watching the end of one of there favorite childhood pass times.

I checked Fandango, and noticed that some of the AMC theaters in my area are now preselling IM3 again. I'm assuming that you guys were all right, and a deal has been reached or is about to be reached. AMC's recent tweets say they're working hard towards an agreement.

Unfortunately, my opening-day preorder is for a Regal location, and all mention of IM3 is still scrubbed from their website. Fingers crossed...

From OS early grosses, there is no doubt about Iron Man 3 having the biggest opening weekend of the summer in the US

AMC and Disney have settled. And though there has been no official announcement about Regal, nor are their locations back on Fandango, IM3 is no longer scrubbed from their list of upcoming movies. Not sure about Cinemark.

Now that the BO-split mess is starting to wind down, I'm with BMP for IM3 being the biggest. It almost certainly won't be an Avengers number, but I think it's going to be more than all of April's wide openings combined.