Other well received animated films that opened to $60m and had their second weekend fall on Father's Day include Kung Fu Panda and Cars, and neither dropped less than 40% (44.2% and 43.9% respectively). Being a sequel and with a little smaller Sat increase than those two, I don't see Madagascar 3 breaking the trend. A drop around 45% looks likely.

You're probably right then.

future rs the watch low 50s savages mid single digits {nm}

katy perry mid teens

abe lincoln vampire hunter high 30s


Posted by: notfabio on Jun 10, 20:24

Holy horrible for Savages.

I highly doubt Abraham Lincoln does that well. I'm not even sure it will make that total.

rofl on rs about the watch (50?wtf?) savages, and katy perry, but Lincoln could happen lol.

Go Katty Perry!

Is there any mistaken flashing here?

That could happen with Katy Perry and Savages too. I have no trouble seeing that bombing big, even if I want to see it.

Low $50m for The Watch? High $30m for Lincoln?! WTF.

Agreed.

Rank Title Gross Drop
1 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 33.2 -45%
2 Rock of Ages 20.3 NEW
3 Prometheus 19.4 -62%
4 That's My Boy 18.8 NEW
5 Snow White and the Hunstman 10.1 -56%
6 MIB 3 7.8 -44%
7 Avengers, The 6.2 -45%
8 Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 2.9 -12%
9 Moonrise Kingdom 2.5 166%
10 What to Expect When 1.4 -48%

http://claytondillard.blogspot.com/2012 ... 15-17.html

This weekend is very reminiscent of when I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry and Hairspray opened together.

1. MADAGASCAR 3 - 33.78 MILLION (-44%)
2. THAT'S MY BOY - 26.82 MILLION (New)
3. PROMETHEUS - 19.9 MILLION (-61%)
4. ROCK OF AGES - 19.29 MILLION (New)
5. SNOW WHITE & THE HUNTSMAN - 11.76 MILLION (-49%)
6. MEN IN BLACK 3 - 8.476 MILLION (-39%)
7. THE AVENGERS - 7.537 MILLION (-33%)
8. THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL - 2.581 MILLION (-21%)
9. MOONRISE KINGDOM - 1.6 MILLION (Flat)
10. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING - 1.561 MILLION (-44%)

I'm assuming Moonrise Kingdom will be in 200+ theaters.

That's My Boy: 29
Rock of Ages: 21

Madagascar: 35
Prometheus: 23

So if the rule actually works this week that could mean sub $20M for ROA and low-mid 20's for TMB. I admit eventhough the rule has been pretty shitty the last couple of weeks I can definitely see it happening with these two.

High 20's and 24 is not that big of a difference but mid-30's and 23 is quite big IMO.

According to the "probability" I think TMB is good for somewhere between $24m-$29m whereas ROA is looking for sub-$20m OW.

Can someone please explain to me how this makes sense? From BO.com:

"Fandango reports that RoA accounts for 2% of daily sales—not bad considering the impact of TDKR."

He then goes on to predict 30.5M for RoA and 28M for That's My Boy. How can 2% be "not bad?" The only way the number could be worse is if it were 1% or NONE (which is where That's My Boy apparently stands). Doesn't this spell disaster for both films, even with TDKR dominating? Moreover, isn't the fact that many people are buying TDKR tix going to make them think twice about buying another ticket so soon after for one of this weekend's films?

Final:

1. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - 36 million
2. That's My Boy - 23.2
3. Prometheus - 22.7
4. Rock of Ages - 13.6
5. Snow White and the Huntsman - 12.8
6. Men in Black 3 - 8.8
7. The Avengers - 7.9
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - 2.4
9. What to Expect When You're Expecting - 1.8
10. Moonrise Kingdom - 1.7

The movies don't even open for two more days.

I wish. It's nice knowing there's at least a couple other fans 'round these parts, though.

I'm aware. Normally films that are going to open over 20M have made more of a dent in the percentages by this point, though.

Neither RoA or That's My Boy seem to be "sell-out" type movies. Even if I really did want to see one them, which I don't, I wouldn't feel like I need to buy tickets in advance.

The only movie I bought tickets for in advance this year is the Avengers.

If That's My Boy doesn't open to at least 30 million, I feel it's safe to say Sandler's career is in a spot of trouble. It's been given a very heavy ad push by Sony. There is ample room in multiplexes for an R-rated, star-driven comedy. Nice thematic synergy with the Father's Day holiday. This should be opening to 40 million, honestly.

On the other hand, I don't feel Rock of Ages under-performing would signify much, other than maybe confirming it just seemed too garish and outlandish and cheesy for general audiences. It would be hard to pin it on Cruise, who hasn't even been the focus of many of the TV spots, and it's so far outside his wheelhouse.

I think Avengers and MIB3 will drop less than 35% this weekend thanks to Father's Day boost.

Yeah if TMB doesn't even crack $30m it will be quite bad for Sandler. ROA could go either way so I don't think it can be pinned to any one star in particular.

Everybody knows Madagascar 3 is gonna win again,,,,,,,,,,,,, where's the "June 22-24 Predictions" thread

Can't wait to see those predictions for Brave