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| Early Saturday http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=66348 |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
2001 wrote: Magnus wrote: There's nothing about it that seems like it should appeal this big. No big effects, no big action, not that interesting of a love story, not that interesting of a fantasy universe....its really not great in any area. Not bad either but thats not really a selling point. Agree to this. It feels more like in the Percy Jackson/Bridge to Terabithia area rather than LOTR/HP or maybe in between of those in terms of scope. It's def. in the Top 3 most impressive openings of the past 20 years though one thing that's kind of sad IMO is that tracking and pre-sales data diminished the surprise element of its performance. Kind of goes together though. Without the hype surrounding the tracking and pre-sales, it wouldn't have made as much money opening weekend. And I don't think it's totally ridiculous to say The Dark Knight Rises could have a hard time besting this opening. People seem to be forgetting just how much TDK had going for it before opening. Ledger's death and performance had a huge impact on that opening weekend. |
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
m051293 wrote: So, if the current 50M figure sticks 19.7M Midnights 48.5M Friday 50.0M Saturday (+3.0%) 39.0M Sunday (-22%) 157.2M OW Now, I've given this Spidey 3's Sunday drop. It could be even stronger, as a 50M Friday would indicate that this thing still had a shitload of demand despite burning off 66M from the previous day and a half. I think sub 15% is possible, but unlikely, however, anything above 15% is pretty much in play. Those who will argue that this will have a typical March drop of 25-35%, I ask why should it? It didn't see a typical March Saturday increase (only +3%), so why should it start behaving like a typical March film all of a sudden? Just looking at other large non-sequel, non summer openers, such as SM1 and Alice, both rose >20% without midnights on Saturday, and then fell around 30%. This rose only 3%, so the drop should be softened a bit, something we saw occur with SM3, which also rose about 3% on Saturday without midnights. The Spider-man franchise, and Alice both have a much larger family audience which both increases the Saturday bump and decreases the Sunday drop. All of the biggest openings in March have had Sunday drops between 25-35%. With such a huge Saturday, I could see a little extra spillover for Hunger Games on Sunday, putting it in the lower end of that range. But a drop less than 20% would be incredible. Personally, I think it will have a Sunday drop of 27-30%. |
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| Author: | Kenspy [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
Speevy wrote: With 150 million from The Hunger Games, I really don't see how TDKR DOESN'T get to 200 million at this point. only way thats possible is if the movie is ridic long imo |
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| Author: | Mannyisthebest [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 7:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
This is also the biggest day for a movie (non-midnights) since TDK First Saturday... I think as of now its going to 152 million-153 million. Sunday drop of 30% is what I expect. Still a 35 million Sunday on par with DH2 Sunday in the summer!!!!!!!!! Also it appears it will sell more tickets then DH2 opening weekend. As of now it should come close to Spidey 1 adjusted weekend, only DMC, Spiderman 3 and TDK had more tickets sold over the weekend. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
UNREAL!  It's going to top my prediction by over 10m.  never been this happy for a film OW since ROTSMagnus wrote: And yet its about to make over 150 million dollars on opening weekend. In March. I really am dumbfounded. But will be estatic if Lionsgate stock goes up 10%. 
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| Author: | Rurouni Kenshin [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
Damn, it's been a while since I've done this, ummm... wow, The Hunger Games is just leaving me speechless. We're talking about a $150M OW in... March? Oh well, it might be a seque-.... nope, it's not. Just wow, is all I have to say. From what I hear, this thing is even getting good WOM, so could $350-375M be possible? Oh, and uhhh, yeah, I'm new here but not to box office, I used to post over at the BOM forums until they closed down |
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| Author: | Mannyisthebest [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
Based on HP legs its heading to 341 million as a floor. |
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| Author: | Speevy [ Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Early Saturday |
Mannyisthebest wrote: Based on HP legs its heading to 341 million as a floor. Harry Potter had shit legs. No way does THG gross less than Potter. Twilight legs alone would get it well over 400 million |
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