MTC tracking:
SALT 36 million
RAMONA AND BEEZUS 7 million

INCEPTION (-47%)

I'm beginning to have trouble seeing Salt do $35M+ now after Inception is obviously beginning to show superb WOM and where that word is coming from is the exact same demo Salt is appealing to.

You're back! We could have used you last week to clear up the MTC confusion.

The reason I didn't predict it is because I'm not sure how many theaters it will go into. It will at the very least be #11 guaranteed, and could make the top 10.

By the looks of it it'll probably be in 100+ at least.

No RS?

Slightly lower than RS on SALT and dead-on for RMONA {nm}

Posted by: secretstalker

As for Ramona and Beezus, both MTC and RS have $7m which indicates it could make a bit more, possibly up to $13m. Its tweet count last week also seems to indicate a minor break out (low to mid double digits).

So MTC is slightly lower than RS. Doesn't really mean anything, of course, since RS has been more accurate than MTC for the last few weeks. I think Salt could grab about $37m this weekend and will be fighting Inception for the #1 spot. I think we'll see a photo finish this weekend between these two.

Tuesday Morning Update: Salt started off with a surprisingly low 1,354 tweets on Monday for a market share of only 1.1%. Inception is still going great guns on Twitter as it raked in over 94,000 tweets on Monday for a staggering 78.3% market share. By comparison, Killers had 491 tweets on its Monday before release, The Losers had 303, The A-Team had 1,478, and Inception had 7,283. Now I'll start out by saying that the ratio here will no doubt be much lower than Inception since its search string is more complex due to its generic name. However, its string is near identical to all comparisons above (minus Inception of course) so the numbers still indicate that it is going to have a hard time pulling out the victory on the weekend. Out of curiosity I also ran searches for just "Salt" which returned roughly 9,000 tweets on the day. I then took a random sample of 200 of these tweets, and categorized them to see what percentage referenced the movie and got 16%. 16% of 9,000 is 1,440, so my search string returns of 1,354 is actually pretty spot on. To net it out the film is having a hard time generating anywhere near the same levels of buzz as Inception and it will need to pick up the pace greatly over the next few days if it is to have any shot of besting the former this weekend.

Ramona and Beezus also found the going tough on Monday as it generated 570 tweets for 0.5% market share. By comparison, The Spy Next Door had 261 tweets its Monday before release, The Tooth Fairy had 282, Diary of a Wimpy Kid had 293 and Letters to Juliet had 784. The real question for the film is whether its ratio plays like a kids movie or skews older and attracts young female Twitter users. Wimpy Kid did very well because it managed to suck in many kids which gave it an uber-low ratio as it surprised many by opening north of $20 million. My impression so far is that it is going to play more like a standard chick-flick due to the talented older cast along with the Selena Gomez x-factor which will no doubt bring some tween fangirls to the table. As such a ratio of 650 to 750 is likely in store which still lines it up nicely for a low double digit opening.

I feel like counting the number of tweets for Salt will be a totally pointless endeavor. It's called Salt, for goodness' sake.