I can recommend anyone to read back from around page 180 or so, and have a good chuckle at the predictions/extrapolations/expectations for Frozen. Things like "It could make 100 million!" and "150 million might fall!" are hilarious when it's over 180 million coming off a weekend that's once again higher than its opening weekend. It reminds me of Avatar's run in the US, where it just continuously kept outperforming everyone's expectations on a daily/weekly basis.

At this point I don't know if I'd rule out anything for Frozen in Japan. Yeah, becoming #1 in local currency/admissions is a huge way off, but is it really 100% impossible at this point?

It has achieved true phenomenon status and I'll no longer be shocked if it does over 30 billion yen ($300 million+) to dethrone Spirited Away. I think it'll fall a bit short, but estimates were actually low, again.

I'll post the weekend ranking with the actual figures soon.

Also, the soundtrack is selling like crazy. It remained on top for a third week with sales of 109,000 (575,000 total), making it the first movie soundtrack since Flashdance over 30 years ago to record three-consecutive weeks at #1 on the charts. And, it's the best-selling movie soundtrack since Titanic, too.

Also, the Japanese version of "Let it Go" sung by May J. has recorded 8-consecutive weeks at #1, the most weeks at #1 for any single since at least 2000.

Weekend Ranking [05/17-18]

01 (01) Frozen (Disney) Week 10
02 (02) Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 4
03 (--) Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) DEBUT
04 (03) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 4
05 (--) Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 (Toho) DEBUT
06 (04) Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 5
07 (05) Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 4
08 (06) Wood Job! (Toho) Week 2
09 (07) Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 5
10 (08) Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 3

>Frozen continues its overwhelming performance with another weekend increase, this time up 9%. It earned ¥807,107,900 ($7.9 million) with 592,173 admissions in its tenth weekend of release, beating the old 10th weekend record by 58%!. So far, the film has earned ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million) with 14.59 million admissions.

The film still shows no signs of slowing down... literally. It's on course to reach at least ¥25 billion ($240/250 million), but could certainly go even higher and perhaps challenge Spirited Away (¥30.4 billion) for the #1 All-Time spot. Surpassing Titanic (#2 All-Time) is looking like a near lock at this point. If it would reach ¥30 billion+, it'll have recorded a USD total likely above $300 million. $300 million. And I'd say that it has at least a 50% chance of doing it.

>Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow saw a huge debut of ¥157,182,200 ($1.5 million) with 98,208 admissions. Now, that certainly wouldn't qualify as huge, but it done so on just 35 screens over 2-days. That gave it a 4.49 million ($44,000) 2-day PSA.

>Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 also did well for itself earning ¥132,864,200 ($1.3 million) with 89,175 admissions on 156 screens, an increase of 76% over its predecessor from 2012.

>The Amazing Spider-Man 2 exceeded ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) over the weekend. It debuted with nearly identical numbers as Iron Man 3, but has already matched Iron Man 3's total after 4 weeks, and should come quite close to the total of the first Amazing Spider-Man (¥3.16 billion). Not bad after a lackluster debut.

Frozen's Path to ¥25 billion+ ($250 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)

Top 10-All Time


It'll enter the Top 5 by beating Princess Mononoke within the week, and then it'll pass Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone by the end of the month.

Top 50 Most-Attended Films of All-Time

01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)
02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
03 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)
04 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
05 :: 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
06 :: 14.59 million - Frozen (2014) [66 days in release]
07 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)
08 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
09 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)
10 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)
11 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
12 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)
13 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)
14 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
15 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
16 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)
17 :: 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (2013)
18 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)
19 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
20 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)
21 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)
22 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)
23 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)
24 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
25 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)
26 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)
27 :: 8.00 million - Antarctica (1983)
27 :: 8.00 million - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
29 :: 7.80 million - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
30 :: 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
31 :: 7.71 million - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
32 :: 7.65 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
33 :: 7.60 million - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
34 :: 7.56 million - Arrietty (2010)
35 :: 7.50 million - The Adventures of Milo and Otis (1986)
36 :: 7.33 million - The Sands of Kurobe (1968)
37 :: 7.30 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
38 :: 7.20 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)
38 :: 7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964)
40 :: 7.10 million - Bayside Shakedown (1998)
40 :: 7.10 million - The Eternal Zero (2013) [22 weeks in release]
42 :: 7.05 million - Monsters University (2013)
43 :: 7.02 million - A.I. (2001)
44 :: 7.00 million - Seven Samurai (1954)
45 :: 6.95 million - Rookies (2009)
46 :: 6.90 million - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
47 :: 6.80 million - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002)
48 :: 6.70 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2002)
49 :: 6.67 million - A Slope in the Sun (1958)
50 :: 6.54 million - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back! (1998)
Newest Entries

Frozen has a legitimate chance of doing over 20 million admissions.

Corpse, some rumors said Disney is going to release the blu-ray of Frozen in July. Which would kill all its chances of a gross near 300M. Theorically, it was mistaken for Tangled, but I'm still afraid of the possible dumb move. Do you know anything about that?

Home video sales are not very strong in Japan........ as I remember

I don't see the Blu-Ray/DVD release announced anywhere. I imagine it's still a awhile away though and will receive a later release like the soundtrack did so they can properly dub/subtitle it. The soundtrack (Japanese version) was released just 3 weeks ago and is already the 8th best-selling movie soundtrack ever (I'll post a list to track it later today). The Japanese don't really care for the English version of the film or the soundtrack.

Frozen over Spirit Away...

Top 10 Best-Selling Movie Soundtracks

01. 1.864 million - The Bodyguard (1992)
02. 1.418 million - Titanic (1997)
03. 1.334 million - Inamura Jane (1990)
04. 1.066 million - Flashdance (1983)
05. 922,000 - Footloose (1984)
06. 760,000 - Seventh of July, Sunny Day (1996)
07. 694,000 - Saturday Night Fever (1978)
08. 575,000 (109,000 3rd week) - Frozen (2014)
09. 509,000 - Checkers in Tan Tan Tanuki (1985)
10. 494,000 - Top Gun (1986)

The Frozen soundtrack will have no problem exceeding 1 million units sold, and should at least reach the #2 spot, if not #1. It looks like it'll easily be the fastest movie soundtrack to reach 1 million, though no data exists for this statistic.

Just a little correction, it's not the 3rd week. It's the 14th week. It has been in the top 10 for 10 weeks. The deluxe version was released 3 weeks ago, but those sales are for both deluxe and standard versions.

Also, It will probably reach #2 but not that easily. #1 spot is even much harder. Only 1 album sold more than 1.5 million since 2006. And unlike box office, album sales in Japan are generally very frontloaded. But it's looking good so far.

Thanks, catlover! I was curious why the articles I read kept saying 3 weeks when I thought the soundtrack was released before then. All the articles kept saying "3 weeks", but were just referring to the deluxe version I see.

How is May J's version of "Let It Go" doing on the Oricon charts? I read it achieved 8 weeks at #1, the most of any single since 2000, but do you know how many copies it has sold?

If it's still on top, I know it had to be dethroned by AKB48's "Labrador Retriever" though considering it just sold nearly 1.5 million copies in ONE DAY.

And if I remember correctly (haven't followed Oricon for years), Masato Shimon's "Swim! Taiyaki" (1975) is still the best-selling physical single with over 4.5 million, and Utada Hikaru's "Flavor of Life" (2007) is the best-selling overall single with over 8 million copies (including digital). But correct me if I'm wrong here.

After doing some reseach on my own question, I found out that Japan recently surpassed the United States as the world's biggest music market, when did that happen?

I know that illegal downloads are practically nonexistent in Japan, and singles/CDs are 3/4x higher than anywhere else, but that sure happened fast.

That's an impressive achievement

Yeah, I think it is #1 in terms of revenue but not in units sold?

Physical singles cost like $20-30 there.

Weekend Estimates [05/24-25]

01 (01) ¥707 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.80 billion ($194.1 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 11
02 (--) ¥179 million ($1.7 million), 0, A Bolt from the Blue (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥149 million ($1.5 million), -29%, ¥3.85 billion ($37.7 million), Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 5
04 (04) ¥92 million ($900,000), -34%, ¥2.79 billion ($27.4 million), The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 5
05 (06) ¥87 million ($850,000), -30%, ¥3.82 billion ($37.6 million), Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 6
06 (05) ¥79 million ($770,000), -40%, ¥325 million ($3.1 million), Ushijima the Loan Shark 2 (Toho) Week 2
07 (09) ¥57 million ($550,000), -22%, ¥1.62 billion ($15.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toho) Week 6
08 (--) ¥55 million ($540,000), 0, Oh! Father (Warner Bros.) NEW
09 (07) ¥54 million ($530,000), -35%, ¥450 million ($4.3 million), Wood Job! (Toho) Week 3
10 (03) ¥53 million ($520,000), -66%, ¥260 million ($2.5 million), Mobile Suit Gundam UC: Episode 7 - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) Week 2
11 (08) ¥49 million ($480,000), -39%, ¥1.91 billion ($18.7 million), Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 5
12 (--) ¥46 million ($450,000), 0, Our Family (Phantom Film) NEW

Busy week/weekend, so I wasn't able to post any forecasts and whatnot, but here are this weekend's estimates and rough total estimates.

>Frozen once again has no problem defending the #1 position for a 11th-consecutive week. This gives it the most consecutive weeks @ #1 after Spirited Away (16 weeks) and Armageddon (14 weeks).

Frozen also achieves the biggest 11th-weekend of all-time by a wide margin, and should be around ¥19.8 billion ($194 million) and 15.5 million admissions after 73 days in release, making it the 5th biggest-film of all-time now. It'll more than likely reach the ¥20.4 billion ($200 million) mark by the end of the month.

Frozen's Path to ¥25 billion+ ($250 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥707 million ($6.9 million), -12%, ¥19.80 billion ($194.1 million) *Est*

Top 10-All Time

Biggest Eleventh Weekends/Eleven Week Totals (2001-)
Eleventh Weekend (% change) / Eleven Week Total -> Final Total - Film
¥707.0 million (-12%) / ¥19.80 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*
¥435.0 million (-15%) / ¥23.60 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥323.1 million (-08%) / ¥18.98 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥311.8 million (-13%) / ¥13.23 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥252.8 million (-18%) / ¥16.85 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥218.5 million (-25%) / ¥11.82 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥185.5 million (-13%) / ¥16.18 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥147.9 million (-34%) / ¥16.23 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥119.8 million (-33%) / ¥12.93 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥101.7 million (-44%) / ¥11.31 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥100 million+
Below: -¥98.8 million (-36%) / ¥14.58 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)

Highest Totals after Eleven Weeks (¥10 billion+)
¥23.60 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥19.80 billion - Frozen (2014) *Estimate*
¥19.31 billion - Titanic (1997)
¥18.98 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥16.85 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥16.23 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥16.18 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥14.58 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥14.57 billion - Princess Mononoke (1997)
¥13.23 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥12.93 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥11.82 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥11.64 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥11.31 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥10.82 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥10.68 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥10.67 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥10.62 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥10.51 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

(No Week 11 data for Titanic, Star Wars Episode I, or Armageddon)

We're lucky enough to have data on Titanic this week as it surpassed Princess Mononoke in its eleventh week of release to become the #1 film of all-time during 1998.

Sorry for the late reply. May J's version of "Let It Go" is only available in digital copy, so it doesn't appear at all on Oricon charts, because those charts only include physical sales. In fact, I'm pretty sure no songs from Frozen are available in physical copies, hence no appearances on Oricon single chart at all.

They do dominate digital songs charts, but it's Takako Matsu's "Let It Go" that has been #1, not May J's. It was #1 on iTunes chart for 61 days (8 weeks), #1 on Recochoku charts (single download and chaku-uta) for weeks, and #1 on other digital song charts. In all of of them, May J's version ranks below Takako Matsu's version. So I'm not sure where that "8 weeks at #1" for May J came from. Maybe it was a mistake and they actually meant Takako Matsu?

Btw yes, "Swim Taiyaki" is still the best selling physical single and "Flavor of Live" is the best selling single overall including digital. Interestingly, Utada Hikaru also holds the title for the best selling album in Japan with "First Love" (7.65 million), which will probably never be beaten, ever.

Thanks for the info!

Japanese record labels are still stubborn about the digital age, so it makes sense that only physical copies are included on the Oricon charts.

And yeah, "First Love" is never going to be topped. It's a shame Utada Hikaru has been on such an extended hiatus! I don't expect her to release albums every year with multiple singles like, say, Ayumi Hamasaki still mostly does, but it has been 6 years now since her last album... She'd surely have the record for most album sales for a female (and solo) artist ahead of Ayumi Hamasaki's 53 million if she was a bit more active.

Utada Hikaru's second album, "Distance" also holds the worldwide record for first week sales over 3 million copies, right?

Found it!

Biggest First Week Album Sales (By Country)

1. 3,002,720 - "Distance" (2001) / Utada Hikaru (Japan)
2. 2,874,870 - "A Best" (2001) / Ayumi Hamasaki (Japan)
3. 2,709,530 - "The Best Pleasure" (1998) / B'z (Japan)
4. 2,500,120 - "The Best Treasure" (1998) / B'z (Japan)
5. 2,415,859 - "No Strings Attached" (2000) / Nsync (United States)
6. 2,350,170 - "Deep River" (2002) / Utada Hikaru (Japan)
7. 2,218,640 - "Delicious Ways" (2000) / Mai Kuraki (Japan)
8. 2,026,870 - "First Love" (1999) / Utada Hikaru (Japan)
9. 2,003,150 - "Review" (1997) / Glay (Japan)
10. 1,921,850 - "Sweet 19 Blues" (1996) / Namie Amuro (Japan)
11. 1,879,955 - "Celebrity" (2001) / Nsync (United States)
12. 1,760,049 - "The Marshall Mathers LP" (2000) / Emenim (United States)
13. 1,751,360 - "I Am..." (2002) / Ayumi Hamasaki (Japan)
14. 1,734,880 - "Bolero" (1997) / Mr. Children (Japan)
15. 1,726,780 - "Drive - Glay Complete Best" (2000) / Glay (Japan)
16. 1,682,760 - "Duty" (2000) / Ayumi Hamasaki (Japan)
17. 1,664,330 - "Cruise Record 1995-2000" (1999) / globe (Japan)
18. 1,648,550 - "Faces Places" (1997) / globe (Japan)
19. 1,591,191 - "Black & Blue" (2000) / Backstreet Boys (United States)
20. 1,569,290 - "Heavy Gauge" (1999) / Glay (Japan)

She needs to come back from her hiatus.