If it reaches $200m, won't it be one of only about 6 movies to make $200m in a non-US market?

Most likely, almost certain, but I wouldn't call it a 100% lock.

I'm not going to bother with Saturday estimates since most figures from last Saturday aren't known (yet) besides being estimates themselves, but Frozen looks like it could drop close to 40% this weekend and may miss ¥700 million ($7 million) or finish barely above the mark.

That's still very, very strong post-Golden Week, obviously, and would be the biggest 9th-weekend ever if it's above ¥650 million (Spirited Away), but percentage hold isn't strong enough to suggest that won't begin to slow down now.

Here is my projected run if it drops 40% this weekend:

¥16.9/17.0 ($167 million)
¥17.9/18.0 ($176 million)
¥18.6/18.7 ($183 million)
¥19.2/19.3 ($189 million)
¥19.7/19.8 ($194 million)
¥20.1/20.2 ($198 million)
¥20.4/20.5 ($201 million) (Week 15)
¥20.6/20.7 ($203 million)
Final: ¥21/22 billion ($210/215 million)

So it has another $50m to make in Japan. Just wow. I mean, some movies don't make $50m in their entire worldwide runs, let alone the last few weeks of an international release in just one country.

Weekend Estimates [05/10-11]

01 (01) ¥694 million ($6.8 million), -39%, Frozen (Disney) Week 9
02 (02) ¥218 million ($2.1 million), -59%, Thermae Romae II (Toho) Week 3
03 (04) ¥166 million ($1.6 million), -55%, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Sony) Week 3
04 (03) ¥153 million ($1.5 million), -65%, Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Toho) Week 4
05 (--) ¥103 million ($1.0 million), 0, Wood Job! (Toho) DEBUT
06 (05) ¥99 million ($980,000), -62%, Partners the Movie 3 (Toei) Week 3
07 (06) ¥83 million ($810,000), -60%, Crayon Shin-chan: Serious Battle! Robot Dad Strikes (Toei) Week 3
08 (08) ¥69 million ($680,000), -53%, My Little Nightmare (Toho) Week 2
09 (07) ¥64 million ($630,000), -61%, Enchanted Kingdom 3D (Toho-Towa) Week 2
10 (09) ¥14 million ($130,000), -69%, Crows: Explode (Toho) Week 5

Pretty standard post-Golden Week weekend full of 50/60% drops. And remember, these estimates are based on last weekend's estimates since the weekend frame (05/03-04) of Golden Week hasn't been completely released yet.

A few notes:

>Frozen earns the biggest 9th weekend ever if this estimate is accurate. I'll post the list a little later.

>The Amazing Spider-Man 2 actually has a respectable hold.

>Partners 3 seemingly dropping 60%+ is interesting considering its older audience. It's not primarily seniors, but it should be skewing old enough to have avoided such a rough drop.

>Crows: Explode definitely isn't in 10th place. Estimates are limited for... limited openers, so one of them will knock it out when the weekend rankings are released tomorrow.

What is TASM2's total?

Should be around ¥2.3 billion ($22 million).

Disney says $7.1m and $164.4m total for FROZEN...

The weekend number seems fine, but the total is certainly a bit low. It was already over $159 million (16.2 billion+) before going into the weekend. It should be closer to $167/168 million.

With the exception of a couple weeks ago, they've underestimated it every other week.

Actuals for Frozen this weekend:

Weekend: ¥737,761,900 ($7.2 million) with 541,094 admissions
Total: ¥17,078,292,150 ($167.4 million) with 13,501,594 admissions.

It will surpass Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! in a few days to become the 6th biggest film of all-time.

Frozen's Path to ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.09 billion ($10.8 million), +40%, ¥14.60 billion ($143.2 million) *Estimate*
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -33%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)

Top 10-All Time


Frozen became just the 8th film to ever gross ¥17 billion or more at the box-office this past weekend, and will effortlessly pass both Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! this week (probably on Wednesday) to rise two more spots.

It's also definitely going to end up beating Princess Mononoke and has a 99.9% probability of earning over ¥20 billion ($200 million) and passing up Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, too.

Overall, I'd say chances are greater than 50% that it'll become the #3 film of all-time with the possibility of challenging Titanic for the #2 position very well alive.

I am sure its beating SA in USD. It barely dropped from 2 weeks ago(pre GW) despite burning over 3M admissions during GW. with no competition it will hold on to its seats for a while

Looking at your avatar makes me wonder how Dragon 2 will act in Japan. It won't have any goodwill from Frozen since it's not Disney, but perhaps Japan will have more interest in foreign animation after Frozen's massive success.

How did the first Dragon perform over there?

It did mediocre as I remember

I believe it did fine for Dreamworks Animation standards. BOM has it at $5.5m

If true, that's mediocre

Frozen's success shouldn't translate over to anything else.

And How to Train Your Dragon 2 isn't on the release schedule (yet). The Croods wasn't released in Japan, and a couple other Dreamworks films haven't been released in recent years either, so I hope Dragon 2 can avoid this fate.

The original didn't do well at the box-office, only grossing about $8 million (don't trust BOM, they only have its 2-week total available). However, it received great reviews among critics and audiences alike, and it is ranked on most websites' Top Rated (X) films pretty high. This may help it secure a release later in the year, especially if it has big box-office results in the US and overseas first.

I suppose they want to release HTTYD 2 in Japan, in its Facebook page it says it will be released on Aug 1.