oops dp

An article about case fatality rates, and the reproduction number, or the rate of spread. New data suggests the virus is spreading faster than expected, which means more undocumented cases and a lower true case fatality rate. The article also mentions an estimate from Oxford that states half the UK is already infected.

https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/



About the Oxford Model:

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/coronavirus-covid19-oxford-research-britons-infection-134223089.html?guccounter=1

Now almost 5,000. What’s changed since it was at 2,400 5 days ago? The media attention already existed. Other causes were already in play. So the increase of 2,500 appears to be due to infections. That’s almost a percent of the NYPD falling sick every day. It suggests how widespread it is, how quickly it is spreading, and the extent to which cases are undocumented.

Some time today US will DOUBLE China's number. Took 2-3? weeks to reach China, and 4 days to double it.

In the US, yesterday was the first drop in deaths since March 20th, and the lowest since the 26th. Today looks like it might be the first day with a drop in reported cases since the 21st. And now there at least is a blood test to let you know if you did had the virus and didn't know it (helps with bank donations and antiviral testing)

As if they need online commentators to assess their failures in this pandemic. China stopped their economy for nearly 2 months, lost billions/trillions of revenue from the Chinese New Year period alone and local/provincial government suppressed information which caused them to lose face and in the process kill their own citizens. I would surely hope that they wouldn't need other governments or outside parties to point out their own missteps. I believe that they will make the necessary adjustments so that this does not happen again on their watch.

I am slightly optimistic at the way that East Asia has been handling this crisis. While I don't believe in any of the confirmed numbers, the individual graphs have been offering a baseline for what is happening around the world. China and South Korea seemed to have flattened the curve. What this shows me is that aggressive tactics make a difference but everyone has to buy into it for the measures to work. China's method of forcing a complete lockdown, welding people in shut to stop them from escaping quarantine while doing contract tracing on all confirmed patients works. South Korea's wasn't nearly as extreme but they have managed to stop clusters from developing further before it gets out of control. Everyone wearing masks is a huge mitigating factor as Asia seems to have lower amounts of numbers than Europe and North America.

I'm surprised that there's only been a scarce amount of information on re-infections. According to South Korea's top doctor, Dr. Kim, he said that re-infections have occurred after 5-7 days of showing no symptoms. This lines up with information that has come out from China, Italy and Spain where recovered patients have tested positive again for COVID-19. Interestingly enough, Dr. Anthony Fauci doesn't believe that patients can get re-infected and that they would have immunity to the tune of a few years.

Dr. Kim also stated from the Korean data that 20% of confirmed patients were asymptomatic. I read an article that said that if China had not suppressed information from its doctors then 95% of today's cases wouldn't have happened. Even if that took place, if we use the 20% asymptomatic figure from Dr. Kim, that would mean that 20% of those 5% could easily spread it to other countries. If those people traveled to other countries, it still would have infected people and caused deaths. Seeing most governments' responses to the pandemic today, I doubt a pandemic would have been avoided no matter the scale.

I don't believe wet markets are the issue as that puts into question the other wet markets in Asia and why hasn't an outbreak occurred at their location. I believe live animals are the culprit. If China eliminates all live animals from their wet markets, this type of pandemic might never happen again.

China’s numbers are a clear lie

A reminder about the US current cases of 158,550, only 5,211 are "recovered". Lower than the 6 other highest case countries. So we currently have a ton of active cases and potential deaths that are still in that 2 week danger zone.

Yeah, but that number off. A lot of states aren't posting recovery numbers as late as 6 weeks after testing positive.

Agreed and its not helping the situation. One conspiracy theory has been circulating here that China did this on purpose to start a viral war where they wipe the world. Its getting more steam now that China number "look" pretty with highest recovery rate and them starting some of their work this last week.

I think its stupid to assume that China would start the outbreak from their own country if they deliberately wanted the virus to leak, plus no one would have predicted that this will spread this fast in few countries.

We are talking a Communist government who has no issue murdering their own citizens. Sacrificing tens of thousands of their own to ensure maximum devastation (economic and other) OS is not that far fetched.

Well yeah I have thought about that but it could have been a situation where they wiped themselves in the process. It really does not add up even though if any country in the world could think about it, its probably China.

The amount of new cases is staying about even instead of doubling every 2 days like it was. Social distancing is working.

I wonder how low new infections would have to be and for how long before things would be normal again. Maybe 2 weeks after there’s no new cases?

China's number might not be accurate, but how accurate are other countries' number...let's just assume that other countries are more honest about it...is there any actual evidence that China's numbers are a lie?

Like shouldn't it be innocent until proven guilty?

Like sure we know China would not hesitate to cover stuff up, lie, murder and all the likes...but if you just look at it, what's China's motive for deliberately creating and or spreading this virus and covering up numbers?

It surely is a fact that they covered up some whistleblowers at the start of this outbreak, like this has been proben, but why then assume that everything they do is a cover-up or conspiracy, this would just be racist and stereotyping then.

Back to the earlier question of motive...how is China aided by wiping out the world?
Half of their economy runs on export, if they wipe out the world who are they going to sell to?
Their economy would crash and no amount of propaganda and indoctrination would stop people from riot and revolt in that case.
Like China might be bad and evil, but I don't think they have a history of being stupid enough to think they could benefit from creating or spreading this virus deliberately or something like that.

China spreading the virus on purpose is just a conspiracy theory unlikely to be true. However I refuse to believe with their population they're routinely at 0 new cases and 3-4 deaths a day.

Yeah, that's totally a fair point.

Just having been in China, Shenzhen to be specific at the beginning of February, everyone took a 14 day quarantine dead serious.

People would just stay at home, abandon going out for any social contact and only go out if they absolutely had to for supplies and stuff.
I'm not sure if they actually eradicated the virus with this as the Chinese government has been announcing, but those very strict self quarantine measures of all the people there must have helped a lot.

‪I truly believe that after this pandemic we will go back to normal and fairly quickly. I don’t see major and long lasting changes in behavior after this. We have short memories and are resilient. ‬

Yeah, I don't necessarily see it having to flatten (Though the cases per day are starting to, today looks like it might actually drop. But because part of the 30th went into the 31st, there's a chance it actually started yesterday.) The biggest thing is that when numbers do start to go down, that's when people really need to stay true to the guidelines, otherwise we'll have a shit ton of mini outbreaks.

A great graph for the cases: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

With the current administration nothing will be learned and everything will be about how we won the war against the invisible enemy. USA! USA! USA!

But US has a larger population...

Than who? China?

China's cases fall off harder one day than De Niro's rottentomatoes score by year

Even the official trump admin numbers show 100,000-200,000 deaths as the expectation.