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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36948
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Haven't yet been updated because we are waiting for a few actuals.
EDIT: OK I now see the problem. Its just that due to rushed new game creation we are unable to update "actuals" for previous game. We will make sure that this does not happen going forward.
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| Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:40 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Sorry about that breakingcampeon. Shack was the winner of that James Bond Derby.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:29 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36948
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME We will check if we are still able to enter the actuals for the missing weekend later sometime.
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| Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:09 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME New game is up and running. Enter your predictions! Congrats again to WandaLegion for winning the Dune prize! It was a photo finish with King.
Four new openers.
My Hero Academia
Antlers
Last Night in Soho
A Mouthful of Air
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:39 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Does anyone have Mouthful of Air estimates? The supposed ‘wide’ release was only 816 theaters.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Sun Oct 31, 2021 5:01 pm |
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breakingcampeon
Newbie
Joined: Thu Oct 07, 2021 9:40 am
Posts: 3
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Box Office Mojo says A Mouthful of Air actuals are $130,701k https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1 ... =bo_se_r_1
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| Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:40 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36948
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Thank you 
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| Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:07 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Thank you! Next cash giveaways will be for the Spiderman and Matrix weekends. Get hyped!
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:06 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Thanksgiving weekend Derby is up!
...for the 3 day weekend.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:19 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME New Derby is up! No openers. :-D
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:00 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Wed Dec 22, 2021 12:31 am |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd?
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| Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:33 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME For the record, Wanda got Radhe Shyam exactly right with his $0.0 prediction.
The Derby default for non tracking movies is $0.1m. He was spot on at zero dollars. lol
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:16 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME WandaLegion wrote: Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd? Curious, how do you know BTS will make $0.0? I would love to know. These films pop out of nowhere and now I have to guess whether or not they are one-week wonders. I almost exclusively use https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule , specifically the wide releases as a guide for what to add (JJK did not show up as a wide release the week prior to its rollout)
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:22 pm |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME lilmac wrote: WandaLegion wrote: Now that I’m playing this fairly regularly, I am curious how the movies are chosen each week. For instance this wknd we don’t have the wknd number 2 (JJK) or the other wide opener (X) but we do have BTS which will make $0. Is it simply handpicked openers+top rest from the previous wknd? Curious, how do you know BTS will make $0.0? I would love to know. These films pop out of nowhere and now I have to guess whether or not they are one-week wonders. I almost exclusively use https://m.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule , specifically the wide releases as a guide for what to add (JJK did not show up as a wide release the week prior to its rollout) I took over pricing for a player run version of the fantasy movie league a little over a year ago, so I have to have pretty detailed numerical forecasts of the upcoming weekend gross by Monday to ensure that goes well. The BOT buzz thread can be pretty useful for that, I also look at BOP long range tracking. In the case of BTS it was a one day “live” concert event for some megapopular Korean pop group rather than a real movie per se — last weekend the gross was equal to Saturday daily, with $0 on Fri and Sun. So naturally no shows on any other days. The BOT derby didn’t have JJK this week either, and when I asked over there the reason was basically that they were very uncertain how it would do. We had it penciled in for ~13M last mon for fml pricing based on robust presales and comparing performance to recent anime movies like MHA: World Heroes Mission and Demonn Slayer Infinity Train in other markets.
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| Wed Mar 23, 2022 5:56 am |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME I’m going to be posting a brief discussion of the likely top 10+some other possibilities on Sunday on BOT going forward, I’d be happy to cross post here if it’s useful. Example below (from last Sun, unactionable now but just to give an idea):
“For next weekend I’d hope to see something like:
Lost City
Batman
RRR
Uncharted
JJK
Dog
NWH
X
Sing
Nile
I think that’s probably the top 10, barring a wild hold from Kashmir files or over performance from infinite storm.“
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| Wed Mar 23, 2022 6:01 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Thanks!
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Wed Mar 23, 2022 9:05 am |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Next wknd top 10 should be:
Morbius
Lost City
Bat
Uncharted
RRR
JJK
NWH
Dog
X
Sing
Main wildcard is contractor, but it will be in a pretty dubious number of locations and may not even report.
Everything everywhere all at once could top sing depending on how much it expands, an option on the more volatile side.
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| Sun Mar 27, 2022 5:21 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Many thanks. WandaLegion wrote: Next wknd top 10 should be:
Morbius
Lost City
Bat
Uncharted
RRR
JJK
NWH
Dog
X
Sing
Main wildcard is contractor, but it will be in a pretty dubious number of locations and may not even report.
Everything everywhere all at once could top sing depending on how much it expands, an option on the more volatile side.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Mon Mar 28, 2022 7:44 pm |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Pretty clear top 10 next weekend of:
Sonic
Morbius
Ambulance
Lost City
Batman
EEAAO
Uncharted
NWH
Dog
JJK
EEAAO reported expanding to ~1200 locs
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| Sun Apr 03, 2022 8:29 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Nice! Thanks.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Mon Apr 04, 2022 7:11 pm |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME JJK kicked for actuals being too annoying I assume? More than fair XD
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| Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:23 am |
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WandaLegion
Speed Racer
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Posts: 140
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Top 9 should be:
Dumbledore
Sonic
Lost City
EeAAO
Stu
Ambulance
Morbius
Batman
Uncharted
JJK is probably favored to round out the top 10 if you don't mind the reporting. Otherwise there's NWH, getting pretty small.
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| Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:08 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME Not including NWH. You’re right. It’s too small. Appreciate the list. I’ll include JJK.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:37 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am
Posts: 3213
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Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread - WINNERS AND NEW GAME The current JJK number in the Derby estimate for the April 15th weekend is a placeholder until we see the actuals.
_________________
I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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| Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:47 pm |
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