UA Times Square is closing down today (January 31) due to skyrocketing rent prices. In its place, LV will open a flagship store in Times Square. The theater will undergo renovations during an 18 month period which will see it move to the 12-13th floors of the mall. Total cost of the renovations is said to be around $500m HK. The new Times Square theater will have 5 houses instead of 4 and be close in the number of seats as the old one.

Total Actuals (through January 29)

1 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $3,722,538
2 I Love Hong Kong 2012 - $1,880,247
3 The Viral Factor - $1,818,059
4 Puss In Boots - $1,515,002
5 All's Well End's Well 2012 - $1,183,971
6 The Flowers Of War - $847,443
7 From Up On Poppy Hill - $634,233
8 The Descendants - $332,794
9 The Muppets - $251,989
10 The Great Magician - $829,043

Judging from those totals, it seems I Love HK took 2nd, Viral settled for 3rd, Puss in Boots claimed 4th and All's Well rounded out the top 5 for the Jan. 26 weekend. Kokuriko Hill isn't passing Tales of Earthsea and should be considered a massive failure here.

Thursday schedules

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anonymous - 5 showings	The Descendants - 4 showings (▼ 6)	Puss in Boots (3D Eng.)
J. Edgar - 5 showings	From Kokuriko Hill (Jap.) - 1 showing (-)	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D
The Ides of March - 6 showings	The Flowers of War - 3 showings (▼ 5)	A Happy Event
	The Muppets - 1 showing (▼ 2)	The Skin I Live In
	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	3 Idiots - 1 showing (-)

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anonymous - 5 showings	The Descendants - 4 showings (▼ 6)	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Thu.)
Chronicle - 5 showings	Puss in Boots (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
J. Edgar - 4 showings	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D - 1 showing (▼ 7)	3 Idiots
The Ides of March - 5 showings	The Flowers of War - 2 showings (▼ 5)
War Horse - 5 showings	The Muppets - 1 showing (▼ 6)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anonymous - 5 showings	The Descendants - 2 showings (▼ 6)	Puss in Boots (3D Can.)
Chronicle - 5 showings	Puss in Boots (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (▼ 4)	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
J. Edgar - 5 showings	The Viral Factor - 3 showings (▼ 4)	All's Well Ends Well 2012
The Ides of March - 5 showings	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D - 1 showing (▼ 7)	I Love Hong Kong 2012
War Horse - 4 showings	From Kokuriko Hill (Can.) - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Flowers of War - 5 showings (-)
	The Muppets (Eng.) - 1 showing (▼ 4)
	3 Idiots - 1 showing (-)

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Chronicle - 7 showings	The Descendants - 1 showing (▼ 6)	Puss in Boots (Can.)
Haywire - 3 showings	The Viral Factor - 7 showings (-)	From Kokuriko Hill (Can.)
The Ides of March - 6 showings	All's Well Ends Well 2012 - 2 showings (▼ 6)	The Flowers of War
War Horse - 5 showings	I Love Hong Kong 2012 - 3 showings (▼ 6)
New Perfect Two - 5 showings	The Great Magician - 1 showing (▼ 5)
	Puss in Boots (3D Can.) - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D - 2 showings (▼ 7)

Estimated theater counts

Chronicle - Very wide
War Horse - Very wide
Haywire - Wide
The Ides of March - Semi wide (13 theaters, actual)
New Perfect Two - Semi wide
J. Edgar - limited
Anonymous - limited
Repeat I Love You - limited

Even with the huge cut in showtimes, I still think Journey 2 will eclipse the first film. It'll be around $500,000-600,000 away after Wednesday. The Flowers of War continues to be Jekyll/Hyde at Broadway/UA locations. It is receiving no cut at Broadway but is gone from most UA theaters. The only major survivor seems to be The Viral Factor which has only lost a quarter to about half its showtimes.

Probably a good sign for Journey 2 when it opens elsewhere. It's just one market, but I was expecting it to.. maybe not bomb, but disappoint in most territories.

Where are you predicting the film to land on the Top 10 of 2012, Bluebomb? BOM, if accurate, has the first one ranking 4th in 2008.

I see it either landing in the top 5 or 6th for the year depending on how well superhero/animation movies does this summer. Animation seems to be on the downturn but Ice Age 3 did 4.1m back in 2009. The Avengers will not be helped by Battleship moving to May 1.

This doesn't include any Chinese films as they are always very late in announcing release dates for them. So for my top 10 of 2012:

1. The Dark Knight Rises - 9m
2. The Hobbit - 8.2m
3. The Amazing Spider-Man - 5.5m
4. Ice Age - 5m
5. Journey 2 - 4.8m
6. The Avengers - 4m
7. Men In Black - 3.7m
8. The Hunger Games - 3.5m
9. Brave - 3m
10. Battleship - 3m

The first Journey was a huge success here so it's no surprise the second is on its way to beating the first. Cross your fingers, it could still disappoint in Europe.

Upped Hobbit's number because I forgot it's in 3D.

Newport not releasing anything with a shot at the Top 10 this year?

No, not that I know of. All's Well Ends Well 2012 failed so it's up to one of the local releases in the summertime to do it. Maybe if Newport is releasing The Monkey King in the summer, they have a chance.

Jan. 26 Weekend Actuals

								Jan. 26 WKD
Rank	Film Title	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Engmnts	Eng. average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	Warner Bros Int'l	$1,147,830	2	36	$31,884	+1%	$3,727,657
2	I Love Hong Kong 2012	Intercontinental	$748,792	2	39	$19,200	+120%	$1,883,873
3	Viral Factor, The	UA Films/Emperor	$704,645	2	38	$18,543	+40%	$1,821,723
4	Puss In Boots	Paramount Int'l	$529,437	2	35	$15,127	+84%	$1,512,491
5	All's Well, End's Well	Newport Ent.	$484,532	2	38	$12,751	+109%	$1,183,491
6	Descendants, The	Fox Int'l	$333,845	1	27	$12,365		$333,845
7	Flowers Of War, The	Edko	$260,258	2	28	$9,295	-15%	$846,711
8	From Up On Poppy Hill	Intercontinental	$164,497	2	30	$5,483	-38%	$635,882
9	Muppets, The	Walt Disney Int'l	$79,037	2	23	$3,436	+12%	$251,974
10	The Great Magician	UA Films/Emperor	$62,948	3	14	$4,496	-41%	$840,334

These numbers are up to Sunday only. Revised totals will come in later.

Very strong 2 weeks for Journey 2. It will ride its momentum past the original with a total of 4.6-4.8m. I Love HK has done reasonably well over the holidays but it's back to work now so it will post big drops from here on out. It will end up with about 2.4-2.5m. The Viral Factor has had a successful run so far. It has kept pace with the frantic rush of people buying tickets to see I Love HK during the holiday period and has now outgunned the flick in gross at the start of this week. It will soon pass the Love HK film and will leg its way to about 2.8m. Puss in Boots has been a disappointing non-factor ever since it opened. It will find a way to about 2.1-2.2m, around where Cars 2/Smurfs finished. All's Well did decent but with the holidays now gone, its business will quickly disappear so expect a 1.4-1.5m tally. The Descendants opened to good results with a strong PTA. Good word of mouth should propel this over the other Oscar bait films in total gross coming out this week but the overlap between this and his directorial The Ides of March will take away seats. The Flowers of War has been unimpressive but will take home 1.1m when it fades away. From Kokuriko Hill has been a failure and now the odds are not in its favour to pass Tales from Earthsea. $800,000 looks likely. The Muppets came back from a disastrous opening weekend and will leave with $375,000. The Great Magician passed The Darkest Hour and looks to disappear with $950,000.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Chronicle	--	2,500	--
2	The Viral Factor	8,962	2,372	-73.5%
3	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	16,603	1,953	-88.2%
4	War Horse	--	1,577	--
5	The Ides of March	--	1,237	--

	Thursday adm.			February 2
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Chronicle	--	13,995	--
2	The Viral Factor	30,562	8,465	-72.3%
3	I Love Hong Kong 2012	28,728	4,243	-85.2%
4	War Horse	--	4,072	--
5	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	44,489	3,958	-91.1%

Chronicle did alright this weekend. It should end up with around 70,000 admissions for the weekend. Good hold for The Viral Factor. It will drop around 50% this weekend. I Love Hong Kong, for the most part, vanished but the daily decreasing admissions last week will keep it from dropping above 70%. War Horse did pretty bad. Journey 2 had an epic collapse but 4.5m is not in jeopardy. I fully expect at least a 75% increase on Saturday and it will recover to post a $300,000 weekend and get close to the original by Wednesday.

Also, schedules updated in first post.

Madagascar 3 moves to August 2. It is now releasing against Brave and Total Recall. I'm definitely not a fan of this move. Opening against Brave will only hurt its BO. They should release this in June to get away from the big animation movies. It's better than this or opening in July or opening at the end of August where box office really starts to decline. For once, I think they need to ditch the summer release for a kids movie and try it out near the beginning of school holidays. Something like June 7 or June 14 would work. June 7 would see it go up against Prometheus but they are two entirely different audiences. If not, June 14 is empty and it'll win 1 weekend. If it does go up against Brave, it will lose for sure.

		Thursday Actuals						February 2
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	Chronicle	--	$119,080	--	34	1	$119,080
3	2	The Viral Factor	$163,953	$57,871	-64.7%	37	13	$2,153,284
2	3	I Love Hong Kong 2012	$183,488	$35,480	-80.7%	36	14	$2,164,816
1	4	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$299,133	$31,736	-89.4%	34	15	$4,118,659
--	5	War Horse	--	$28,777	--	24	1	$46,414
5	6	All's Well Ends Well 2012	$120,804	$24,729	-79.5%	30	14	$1,393,088
7	7	The Flowers of War	$62,838	$23,769	-62.2%	18	15	$974,694
--	8	The Ides of March	--	$18,002	--	17	1	$18,002
--	9	New Perfect Two	--	$13,858	--	11	1	$13,858
--	10	J. Edgar	--	$13,596	--	12	1	$13,596

You Are the Apple of My Eye	$7,973,127
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol	$5,700,713
3 Idiots	$2,998,946
Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1	$2,094,155
Puss in Boots	$1,677,669
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	$1,032,275

Good start for Chronicle although the number looks a bit off. It looks like a $95,000 opening day to my eye. Reviews definitely helped with sales. This could be a sleeper hit. The Viral Factor had a very good hold. It is completely blowing away the Chinese New Year lineup. This should be around 2.4m after this weekend. I Love HK dropped as expected. It'll roll in 2.3m after the weekend is done. Journey 2 completely collapsed although beating the original will still happen. War Horse didn't do great. It'll begin with $175,000-$200,000. All's Well is fading but will end up with 1.5m after Sunday. The Flowers of War had the softest drop of the top 10 but it didn't get an extra gear with the holidays so the drop in itself is only decent. It is completely hilarious regarding the competition between Broadway/UA theaters. Broadway theaters are having full day showtimes for Flowers of War at almost every location. UA theaters, however, has completely cut Flowers for other movies. The Ides of March had a fantastic opening, bolstered by George Clooney and The Descendants. New Perfect Two isn't going to do much here but was helped by strong admissions at select locations. J. Edgar isn't doing so well. It'll open with about $75,000.

You Are the Apple of My Eye is inching closer and closer to 8m although I think it will stop at 7.9m. It is only showing in 1 theater so not much can be made every week. It'll get the heave ho soon. Very good total for Mission Impossible 4 but it won't make it to Pirates. 3 Idiots will pass 3m and HK will beat South Korea's gross sometime next week. Breaking Dawn will squeak by 2.1m. Puss in Boots has been doing horrible. It might miss 2m altogether now. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has performed well. 1.07m looks to be final.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Chronicle	--	4,028	--	+61.1%
2	The Viral Factor	10,899	3,422	-68.6%	+44.3%
3	The Ides of March	--	2,569	--	+107.7%
4	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	16,706	2,248	-86.5%	+15.1%
5	War Horse	--	2,201	--	+39.6%

	Friday adm.				February 3
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Chronicle	--	15,127	--	+8.1%
2	The Viral Factor	29,516	10,546	-64.3%	+24.6%
3	War Horse	--	5,971	--	+46.6%
4	The Ides of March	--	5,465	--	--
5	I Love Hong Kong 2012	25,043	4,961	-80.2%	+16.9%

Chronicle is pacing itself well. It should set up for a fairly good Saturday/Sunday. The Viral Factor is showing strength even when it's down 60%. Healthy Friday increase will give way to a very good Saturday/Sunday. It might even sneak in an admissions win over Chronicle on one of the two days. War Horse is doing meh numbers. The Ides of March is the other big story this weekend. Very good #. I Love HK will see a solid increase on Saturday.

Saturday admissions & Weekend Projections

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			February 4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Chronicle	--	6,035	--	+49.8%
2	The Viral Factor	9,115	5,139	-43.6%	+50.2%
3	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	15,300	4,086	-73.3%	+81.8%
4	The Ides of March	--	3,074	--	+19.7%
5	War Horse	--	2,828	--	+28.5%

	Saturday adm.				February 4
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Chronicle	--	24,581	--	+62.5%
2	The Viral Factor	30,008	17,807	-40.7%	+68.9%
3	War Horse	--	10,629	--	+78.0%
4	I Love Hong Kong 2012	24,669	9,819	-60.2%	+97.9%
5	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	37,078	9,787	-73.6%	--

Good Saturday for Chronicle. Viral Factor had an excellent drop. Solid increase for War Horse. I Love HK might be showing good word of mouth here. Journey 2 increased almost 100% Saturday.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			February 5
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Viral Factor	10,924	7,178	-34.3%	+39.7%
2	Chronicle	--	6,230	--	+3.2%
3	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	15,521	4,637	-70.1%	+13.5%
4	I Love Hong Kong 2012	8,645	3,692	-57.3%	--
5	War Horse	--	3,580	--	+26.6%

Viral Factor has been doing an amazing job. Interesting number for Chronicle. It hadn't shown any signs of frontloading till this point but it will still overtake Viral Factor and win in admissions on Sunday. Journey 2 is coming back slightly and will pass 4.3m after this weekend. Surprising for I Love HK. It will take in more than $200,000 this weekend.

February 2 Weekend Projections
1. Chronicle - $600,000
2. The Viral Factor - $370,000 (-47.4%)/$2,470,000
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $260,000 (-77.3%)/$4,345,000
4. I Love Hong Kong 2012 - $240,000 (-67.9%)/$2,370,000
5. War Horse - $210,000

Chronicle will open with a number north of $500,000. $600,000 is achievable if it has a good enough Sunday. The Viral Factor is shining brightly. Great drop after the makeshift holiday last Thursday/Friday and 3m will probably happen now. Journey 2 fell sharply this weekend but at least it will still beat the original's 4.5m total. I Love HK declined surprisingly smaller than expected and it will close with about 2.7-2.8m. After a sluggish start, War Horse is coming back with a weekend above $200,000. It's a decent opening for the Oscar-nominated film.

3 movies hit milestones this weekend. 3 Idiots squeaked past 3m. Mission Impossible 4 now stands at 5.7m while Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 climbed to 2.1m.

	Sunday adm.				February 5
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Chronicle	--	19,399	--	-21.1%
2	The Viral Factor	25,976	16,571	-36.2%	-6.9%
3	War Horse	--	9,932	--	-6.6%
4	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	30,771	9,711	-68.4%	-0.8%
5	I Love Hong Kong 2012	20,720	9,509	-54.1%	-3.2%

	Weekend adm.			Feb 2-5
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Chronicle	--	73,102	--
2	The Viral Factor	116,062	53,389	-54.0%
3	War Horse	--	30,604	--
4	I Love Hong Kong 2012	99,160	28,532	-71.2%

	Weekend Estimates			February 2
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	Chronicle	$580,000		$580,000
2	The Viral Factor	$370,000	-47.4%	$2,470,000
3	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D	$260,000	-77.3%	$4,345,000
4	I Love Hong Kong 2012	$240,000	-67.9%	$2,370,000
5	War Horse	$215,000		$215,000

That big Sunday drop caused Chronicle to fall with estimates. It is slightly alarming that it has happened already on the weekend. Weekday numbers will tell which theaters will keep what here between Chronicle/Viral Factor. I still think the weekend overall for Chronicle has been a huge success. A weekend above $500,000 for this type of movie that wasn't clearly defined in the trailer is very good in my book. The Viral Factor had a nice Sunday and a nice weekend. With gross, it may fall below 50% which would be a fantastic drop after the "holiday" weekend. Journey 2 bounced back after a poor Thursday/Friday. With its Saturday/Sunday, it is tracking ahead of I Love HK for the weekend and be about $170,000 behind Journey to the Center of the Earth. Not bad for I Love HK. OK for War Horse although it had some help from bigger ticket prices.

February 9 Weekend Predictions

1. Romancing in Thin Air - $850,000 (including previews)
2. Contraband - $350,000
3. Chronicle - $200,000
4. The Lady - $175,000
5. The Viral Factor - $150,000
6. Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace 3D - $100,000

Romancing in Thin Air is getting 2 screens at night at most locations. This will do well with the couples crowd and will win the weekend by a huge margin. Contraband looks to be the runner up with a decent amount of theaters and full day showtimes. Chronicle looks to descend by about 60-70% from last weekend. The Lady is doing fairly well so far with it going semi-wide. The Viral Factor will fall about 50-60% due to unfavorable showtimes and loss of theaters but strong selling in UA/select Broadway theaters. 3D re-releases don't do well in Hong Kong (a la The Lion King, Toy Story 1 & 2) so I don't expect Star Wars to make a lot here.

Weekend Actuals/Totals (through Feb. 5)

1 The Viral Factor - $2,438,268
2 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $4,312,088
3 Chronicle - $542,999 (weekend actual)
4 I Love Hong Kong 2012 - $2,339,501
5 All's Well End's Well 2012 - $1,490,298
6 The Flowers Of War - $1,105,909
7 Puss In Boots - $1,764,015
8 War Horse - $201,957/$217,733 (weekend actual)
9 The Descendants - $531,745
10 The Ides of March - $136,795 (weekend actual)

Solid for Chronicle. War Horse did decently but The Ides of March played very well at its locations. Very good for The Viral Factor and it should come away with 2.8-2.9m. Journey 2 still on track to pass original. I Love HK will probably finish with 2.6m. All's Well disappointed and will only take home 1.6-1.7m. The Flowers of War has Broadway/AMC supporting it so it won't go away anytime soon. It could reach 1.6m. Puss in Boots faltered. 1.9m looks final. The Descendants will inch its way past a 2 multiplier for now but who knows what happens if it wins the Oscar.

Romancing in Thin Air might be our 2nd movie to get over a 1m OW. It has looked very good at a number of locations. A bit sluggish at others but walk-ins will be brisk. It will tower over the competition this weekend.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	4,334	--
2	The Lady	--	2,038	--
3	Contraband	--	1,480	--
4	The Viral Factor	2,372	920	-61.2%
5	Chronicle	2,500	862	-65.5%

A bit below Overheard 2's start at the same point for Romancing in Thin Air but romance films are known for very good walk-ins. Very good for The Lady. Contraband is having slow sales so far but should pick up and overtake The Lady by day's end. Expected declines for The Viral Factor and Chronicle.

Records and schedule updated on first page.

Valentine's Day will see a number of films have special screenings. The Artist, La Delicatesse, Love, My Week with Marilyn will all try and take advantage of the special holiday. While Beauty and the Beast will not partake in those advanced previews, it will roar to life on that day as that is its official release date.

Romancing in Thin Air, a romance set in Shangri-la, is directed by Hong Kong filmmaker Johnny To.

The Lady, a movie about the poignant love story of one of the world's most prominent prisoners of conscience, Aung San Suu Kyi, is directed by French filmmaker Luc Besson.

I don't think Romancing in Thin Air will be liked by Hong Kong moviegoers. It's a joint production with many mainland Chinese elements in it.

The Lady is a minor surprise considering its political theme. Often people tend to pass over films with a heavy subject.

	Thursday adm.			February 9
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	10,510	--
2	Contraband	--	5,294	--
3	The Lady	--	3,953	--
4	The Viral Factor	8,465	3,739	-55.8%
5	Chronicle	13,995	2,686	-80.8%

		Thursday Actuals						February 9
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	$63,513	--	44	1	$126,349
--	2	Contraband	--	$41,865	--	35	1	$41,865
2	3	The Viral Factor	$57,871	$25,195	-56.5%	33	20	$2,593,168
--	4	Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace	--	$22,747	--	12	1	$22,747
--	5	The Lady	--	$22,000	--	14	1	$29,653
1	6	Chronicle	$119,080	$21,003	-82.4%	33	8	$711,682
5	7	War Horse	$28,777	$15,412	-46.4%	24	8	$310,716
7	8	The Flowers of War	$23,769	$14,318	-39.8%	17	22	$1,182,128
4	9	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$31,736	$9,543	-69.9%	26	22	$4,388,761
9	10	New Perfect Two	$13,858	$8,972	-35.3%	11	8	$131,506

3 Idiots	$3,006,071
I Love Hong Kong 2012	$2,402,543
Puss in Boots	$1,787,935
All's Well Ends Well 2012	$1,540,866
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	$1,045,951
The Great Magician	$872,800
From Kokuriko Hill	$747,842

A weak debut for Romancing in Thin Air. It will find its way to a $475,000 weekend. Sluggish for Contraband and it'll only produce about a $250,000 weekend. The Viral Factor is down but not out. After this weekend, it will stand above 2.7m. Star Wars had an OK debut considering the number of theaters but it was clearly affected by The Lion King flopping last year. $125,000-$175,000 is the range it'll land in. The Lady had a very good start with the limited theaters and no 3D prices. I could see it finishing with $125,000 in its OW. Very big collapse for Chronicle. This will finish under a 2m and 1m is not happening now. OK for War Horse. The Flowers of War lost only 1 screen so the drop itself is nothing special. It could still crawl its way past 1.5-1.6m. For the first time, Journey 2 is in some danger of not passing the original. After Sunday, it should be around 4.45m. New Perfect Two had a good drop.

At this rate, 3 Idiots needs two more full weeks in the 3 theaters currently left before passing South Korea's gross. It'll be tough but it's doable if those theaters decide that the 1 showtime per day is still profitable. I Love HK 2012 should pass 2.5m before shutting it down. From Kokuriko Hill will pass 3 quarters of a million but won't get past Tales From Earthsea.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	6,341	--	+46.3%
2	The Lady	--	2,664	--	+30.7%
3	Contraband	--	2,191	--	+48.0%
4	The Viral Factor	3,422	1,442	-57.9%	+56.7%
5	War Horse	2,201	1,282	-41.8%	--

	Friday adm.				February 10
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	14,573	--	+38.7%
2	Contraband	--	7,029	--	+32.8%
3	The Lady	--	6,068	--	+53.5%
4	The Viral Factor	10,546	4,621	-56.2%	+23.6%
5	Chronicle	15,127	3,434	-77.3%	+27.8%

Top 10 Disappointments of 2011

With the year already past us, it's time to reflect on the disappointments of 2011. I compiled the list using the 20 entries below:

The Nutcracker (3D)
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
Let's Go!
Don't Be Afraid of the Dark
Ghost Love Story
Dream House
The Lion King (in 3D)
Xia Ri Le You You (Love You You)
1911
Abduction
Zookeeper
Love in Space
Treasure Hunt
Bad Teacher
Lian Xia Lian Xia Lian Lian Xia (Summer Love Love)
Cowboys & Aliens
Green Lantern
Water for Elephants
Rango
The Road Less Travelled

The list (#10-#6)

10. Treasure Hunt

Treasure Hunt was Cecelia Cheung's first headliner of 2011 and boy did it flop. It opened with a healthy 29 theaters but only managed a $72,000 opening resulting in one of the worst PTA's for a wide release.

9. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn

Tintin had good reviews, 3D prices and an empty marketplace when it opened. So why did it disappoint so badly? Tintin opened at #1 with $470,000, below Immortals' OW the weekend before, and well below expectations. It proceeded to stay on top for the next 2 weekends after that but never really found its footing as the MI4/SH2 duel crushed it with a 90% drop in its 4th weekend.

The next 3 entries all come from the same weekend...

8. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark/7. Dream House/6. Ghost Love Story

All 3 of these releases opened on Halloween week in hopes of scaring moviegoers. Too bad for them, most HK'ers hate horror movies. So it was poetic justice that all 3 bombed, scoring with less than a $700 PTA for all three, making it one of the worst weekends for horror movies ever.

Coming up...the top 5 disappointments of 2011.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			February 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	10,435	--	+64.6%
2	The Lady	--	3,985	--	+49.6%
3	Contraband	--	3,197	--	+45.9%
4	The Viral Factor	5,139	2,430	-52.7%	+68.5%
5	War Horse	2,828	2,144	-24.2%	+67.2%

	Saturday adm.				February 11
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	28,159	--	+93.2%
2	Contraband	--	11,615	--	+65.2%
3	The Lady	--	9,909	--	+63.3%
4	The Viral Factor	17,807	8,786	-50.7%	+90.1%
5	War Horse	10,629	6,509	-38.8%	--

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			February 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	10,951	--	+4.9%
2	The Lady	--	4,709	--	+18.2%
3	Contraband	--	3,661	--	+14.5%
4	War Horse	3,580	2,657	-25.8%	+23.9%
5	The Viral Factor	7,178	2,538	-64.6%	+4.4%

	Sunday adm.				February 12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	23,018	--	-18.3%
2	Contraband	--	10,516	--	-9.5%
3	The Lady	--	9,898	--	-0.1%
4	The Viral Factor	16,571	7,798	-52.9%	-11.2%
5	War Horse	9,932	6,475	-34.8%	-0.5%

	Weekend adm.			Feb 9-12
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	76,260	--
2	Contraband	--	34,454	--
3	The Lady	--	29,828	--
4	The Viral Factor	53,389	24,944	-53.3%

	Weekend Estimates			February 9
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	Romancing in Thin Air	$515,000		$580,000
2	Contraband	$255,000		$255,000
3	The Lady	$165,000		$173,000
4	The Viral Factor	$155,000	-54.4%	$2,725,000
5	War Horse	$125,000	-43.2%	$425,000

Romancing lands in the top spot, bolstered by Louis Koo's younger fanbase. It will quickly enter the 1m ranks by next weekend. Contraband opened to an average Thursday but business didn't see a huge bump on the weekend which lead to below par numbers. This will quickly fade away next week with This Means War opening. With a strong marketing campaign and the real life politician in the news, The Lady opened to good results, however, it'll get trampled by the 3 Oscar-nominated films next week especially by My Week with Marilyn. The Viral Factor posted a good drop. 2.9m looks like it's happening. War Horse posted a softer decline due to lack of competition. $600,000 is possible now.

Star Wars should come in with about $100,000-$150,000.

And continuing on with the top 10 disappointments of 2011...

5. Zookeeper
Opening: $61,086
Total: $90,200

Squandering a #1 chance on its OW, this turd could not convince people to turn up and see talking animals. Booked into 18 theaters, the movie had the worst PSA of any opening wide release that week and left Hong Kong with just $90,000.

4. 1911
Opening: $104,930
Total: $201,099

Jackie Chan decided that 1911 would be the movie that would get both the domestic and HK box office flowing. Turns out it bombed in both areas. This turned in a weak opening weekend performance with a PTA of less than $3,000. It quickly left theaters in just 4 short weeks, embarrassing the 35+ theaters that showed it and is left with the distinction of being 1 of 2 very wide releases to have a OW PTA under $3,000.

3. Rango
Opening: $69,041
Total: $204,564

Whoever decided that opening Rango on a Saturday should be fired on the spot. The opening was not only nontraditional by release date patterns in Hong Kong but it came on the heels of Rio opening the weekend before and faced 5 cartoons the weekend after (Easter). This was a major scheduling error that could have served Rango better had it opened in an emptier marketplace. It also didn't help that the trailer was "UGLY" and turned off local audiences from watching it. The Saturday opening just compounded the list of problems for the rave reviewed animated flick. Instead Rango opened to $69,000 for the 2-day weekend and fell a deceptive 19% on the 4-day Easter weekend. This was a botched release from the start but it couldn't top the next film on the list which is the only 3D release of the top 5.

2. The Lion King (3D)
Opening: $16,721
Total: $48,790

The Lion King had a lot of positives coming into the HK release. It had an exceptional domestic OW, great reviews about the movie and the 3D and very little direct competition. Instead, it bombed, opening with only a $1,115 PTA. Yes, that PTA is for a 3D release on its OW. It lasted an astonishing 6 weeks before succumbing to Arthur's Christmas. In the end, it couldn't even crack $50,000 and its Hong Kong number was by far the lowest of any Asian territory. The only reason why it isn't ranked #1 is because this only had a semi-wide release (15 theaters). The #1 disappointment had more things going for it than this.

1. Love in Space
Opening: $87,467
Total: $153,450

When theaters posted their Thursday schedules the week of Love in Space's release, one could just go down the list, count the number of theaters and comfortably predict where it would end up. Not so with Love in Space. It had the highest number of theaters that weekend (38 theaters) but shockingly came in 6th place. It's PTA, $2,302, was by far the worst of an ultra-wide release of 2011. It left theaters after only 2 weeks and it failed to make half of what Hot Summer Days did. This movie had a lot going for it. The same two directors and one of the producers of Hot Summer Days worked on the film. Hot Summer Days had decent WOM. It had recognizable stars in Aaron Kwok, Eason Chan and Angelababy and theaters booked this with full day showtimes. Its total was a complete failure in itself that it seemed like the gross was reserved for some indie or arthouse flick than a local wide release followup to a successful film.

My Top 10 Surprises for 2011 will be coming shortly.

Valentine's Day

Theaters are having advanced showings for movies featuring a love theme. Romancing in Thin Air is the main beneficiary of Valentine's Day and it is either expected to pass or come close to its Saturday admissions number on Tuesday. The Lady has also seen some movement upwards. Other movies getting a headstart include: The Artist, My Week with Marilyn, Love, Love is Not Blind and La delicatesse.

Spotlight - You Are the Apple of My Eye

	Tuesday adm.	(so far)			February 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	2,716	28,300	+942.0%	+705.4%
2	Contraband	--	4,221	--	+236.9%
3	The Lady	2,291	4,039	+76.3%	+221.1%
4	New Perfect Two	--	2,398	--	--
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	1,825	--	--

Gigantic for Romancing in Thin Air! Spectacular. 50,000 for the day is possible.

	Tuesday adm.				February 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	--	40,568	--	+337.8%
2	Contraband	--	10,672	--	+201.0%
3	The Lady	--	7,324	--	+127.5%
4	The Viral Factor	18,083	4,239	-76.6%	+72.7%
5	New Perfect Two	--	4,068	--	--

Most of the night shows had already filled up which explains the low ratio of walk-ins:pre-sales for Romancing in Thin Air. Still a huge admissions number and it'll pass 1m by tomorrow. Contraband had a nice increase debunking the myth that only romance movies do well on Valentine's Day. The Lady had a disappointing increase although it'll put up bigger numbers than Contraband later on. The Viral Factor had a steep fall thanks to decreased showtimes. Very nice for New Perfect Two.

Pacific Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - 5 showings	Contraband - 4 showings (▼ 5)	Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace 3D
Moneyball - 5 showings	The Lady - 3 showings (▼ 5)	J. Edgar
My Week with Marilyn - 5 showings	The Ides of March - 2 showings (▼ 5)
This Means War - 5 showings	War Horse - 2 showings (▼ 5)
Beauty & the Beast 3D - 2 showings	The Descendants - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Flowers of War - 1 showing (▼ 2)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
This Means War - 8 showings	Contraband - 5 showings (▼ 7)	Chronicle
Mr. & Mrs. Gambler - 6 showings	Romancing in Thin Air - 7 showings (▼ 9)	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D
	The Lady - 5 showings (▼ 6)
	The Ides of March - 1 showing (▲ 0)
	War Horse - 3 showings (-)
	The Viral Factor - 2 showings (▼ 4)
	I Love Hong Kong 2012 - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Flowers of War - 2 showings (▼ 3)

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - 5 showings	Romancing in Thin Air - 6 showings (-)	Contraband
My Week with Marilyn - 5 showings	The Lady - 2 showings (▼ 5)	Chronicle
This Means War - 5 showings	J. Edgar - 1 showing (-)	New Perfect Two
Mr. & Mrs. Gambler - 5 showings	The Ides of March - 1 showing (▼ 2)	I Love Hong Kong 2012
	War Horse - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Descendants - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Viral Factor - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	The Flowers of War - 1 showing (▼ 3)

This Means War is looking to duke it out with Romancing in Thin Air for top spot this weekend. Extremely Loud and Mr. & Mrs. Gambler will jockey for 3rd and 4th. The Lady and Contraband should be a close battle for 5th.

Biggest loser this week is Chronicle. It is losing more than half its screens this weekend. 1m is out of the picture.

2012 Summer Blockbuster Schedule

Release Date	Movie Title
April 26	The Avengers
May 1	Battleship
May 24	Men in Black 3
May 31	Snow White and the Huntsman
June 7	Prometheus
June 21	G.I. Joe: Retaliation Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
July 3	The Amazing Spider-Man
July 12	Ice Age: Continental Drift
July 19	The Dark Knight Rises
August 2	Brave Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted Total Recall
August 9	The Bourne Legacy

I thought it would be a good time to get revved up for this summer seeing how they already started advertising The Avengers here.

Speaking of which, The Avengers is going to have a fight on its hands now that Battleship has moved to the May 1 holiday. I am not sure I like that for both movies.

Battleship is being marketed as Transformers 4 over here so it'll be interesting if this pulls another Sanctum. I think The Avengers will still win though.

Men in Black will be interesting to watch. Lots of people want to see it over here. Snow White will do quite well with the female crowd. Last year, 3 romance films overperformed (Beastly, Don't Go Breaking My Heart, You Are the Apple of My Eye). Abraham Lincoln won't do well. Vampire movies don't really do robust business here. Even Twilight has been stuck in the 2m range.

No real intriguing match-ups until August 2. That looks like a death trap waiting to happen for Madagascar 3. We could see a 2.5m OW return for the top 3 if they all manage to overperform but right now I have it as Brave > Madagascar > Total Recall.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	This Means War	--	2,430	--
2	Romancing in Thin Air	4,334	2,138	-50.7%
3	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	1,337	--
4	The Lady	2,038	1,102	-45.9%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	952	--

Ok for This Means War. This will do well on Friday and the weekend. Romancing in Thin Air had a mediocre drop.

								Feb. 9 WKD
Rank	Film Title	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Theaters	Per Theater Average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	Romancing In Thin Air	Media Asia	$499,261	1	39	$12,802		$499,261
2	Contraband	Universal Int'l	$256,985	1	35	$7,342		$256,985
3	Lady, The	Golden Scene	$171,366	1	14	$12,240		$171,366
4	Viral Factor, The	UA Films/Emperor	$149,516	4	33	$4,531	-56%	$2,718,508
5	Chronicle	Fox Int'l	$132,397	2	32	$4,137	-76%	$823,303
6	Star Wars: Episode I - Phantom Menace	Fox Int'l	$122,714	1	12	$10,226		$122,714
7	War Horse	Walt Disney Int'l	$111,364	2	23	$4,842	-49%	$408,600
8	Flowers Of War, The	Edko	$89,306	4	17	$5,253	-37%	$1,243,821
9	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	Warner Bros Int'l	$72,366	4	25	$2,895	-68%	$4,449,590
10	Ides Of March, The	Golden Scene	$69,019	2	16	$4,314	-50%	$251,562

Below the top 10

11	12	New Perfect Two (Perfect Two)	Intercontinental	$57,531	-28.9%	11	-	$5,230	$179,931	2
12	9	The Descendants	Fox	$55,509	-45.9%	15	-6	$3,701	$620,923	3
13	4	Ngo Oi Hk Hei Sheung Ka Hei (2012)	Intercontinental	$45,307	-78.3%	25	-11	$1,812	$2,440,075	4
14	11	J. Edgar	WB	$32,898	-62.5%	9	-3	$3,655	$148,634	2
15	10	Puss in Boots	Intercontinental	$26,938	-71.6%	16	-20	$1,684	$1,813,452	4
16	13	Kokuriko-zaka kara	Intercontinental	$14,621	-65.1%	13	-12	$1,125	$760,502	4
17	8	Alls Well That Ends Well	Newport	$12,636	-89.6%	10	-18	$1,264	$1,550,918	4
18	19	My Name is Khan	n/a	$10,809	+18.9%	4	+3	$2,702	$87,454	6
19	16	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)	Sony	$8,726	-14.0%	2	-1	$4,363	$1,093,077	6
20	15	The Muppets	Disney	$7,545	-49.7%	6	+3	$1,258	$304,006	4
21	21	3 Idiots	EDKO	$4,511	-12.9%	3	-	$1,504	$3,010,365	24
22	17	Daai mo seut si (The Great Magician)	Lark	$4,298	-55.8%	1	-4	$4,298	$876,591	5
23	14	Haywire	Deltamac	$2,379	-92.5%	2	-11	$1,190	$46,724	2
24	22	The Skin I Live In	EDKO	$1,687	-55.0%	1	-1	$1,687	$433,374	7
25	20	Gekijouban Naruto: Buraddo purizun	n/a	$1,555	-76.6%	3	-2	$518	$60,086	3
26	24	Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol	Intercontinental	$1,166	-47.6%	1	-	$1,166	$5,704,387	9
27	23	Un heureux événement (A Happy Event)	Golden Scene	$934	-73.4%	1	-1	$934	$41,199	4
28	18	Anonymous	Sony	$353	-96.3%	1	-2	$353	$13,677	2

That OW is not great for Romancing in Thin Air. Contraband too had a disappointing OW. The Lady did better than expected numbers. It will finish with over $500,000. The Viral Factor is going to end with 2.9m. Chronicle had a bad drop. Star Wars flopped. War Horse had a meh drop. The Flowers of War isn't going to make it to 1.6m but 1.4-1.5m is going to happen. Journey 2 jumped off a cliff again. Beating the original is not going to be easy now although 4.5m is locked. The Ides of March decreased OK.

The Descendants had a good hold after last week's large drop. My Name is Khan looks like it's on a run of its own. $110,000, maybe $120,000, can be achieved before Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara opens.

Top 10 Surprises of 2011

It's that time! Before we begin, let's look at our first honourable mention.

Honourable mention - Johnny English Reborn

Johnny English Reborn took the city by storm (while having to survive one) and opened with a $1,358,742 OW. That was enough to claim #8 OW of the year and book it into the top 15. It just missed cracking the top 10 however, finishing at #11 on the year. It played for 7 weeks and left with a 3.218m total, doubling the original's gross.

As we go through the list, we'll get to more honourable mentions, but let's kick things off, shall we?

10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon


Released: June 28, 2011
OW: $4,302,758 ($5,126,924 incl. previews + Wed.)
Total: $10,883,894

It was the event picture of the summer and of the year. It completely demolished and obliterated everything in its path on its opening weekend. Transformers 3 set new records left and right on its opening including: Biggest 4-day OW, 5-day OW, highest OW admissions, highest PTA ever and it was the first movie to not only break 1m in one day but managed to set a new record of having 3 consecutive days over 1m. Its OW was a world class performance that was never seen before. Just the previous year, Toy Story 3 took the OW reigns from Kung Fu Hustle (both debuted with 3.2m) but no one expected Transformers to kill Toy Story 3's record by 1.1m. It also doesn't factor in its opening day which at the time was the highest non-holiday OD ever. Say what you will about its legs, but its OW alone deserved a place in the top 10.

Then the freefall began. It fell a whopping -63% in its 2nd weekend, failing to hit 2m for a 2nd time. It was overshadowed by the stellar performance of Mr. Popper's Penguins which won admissions 3/4 days. After the overperformance of Popper's, the next weekend featured its arch-nemesis in Harry Potter. No surprise that it fell even harder, this time -64%, but managed to secure another $678,000 in its 3rd weekend. It would officially pass the 10m mark on Wednesday before falling another -53% in its 4th weekend. Little competition in its 5th weekend allowed it to achieve a softer drop but it declined hard in its 6th weekend when the Captain America/Smurfs duo hit the big screens. It's -67% decline officially killed any chance it had with passing 11m and thus it settled with 10.8m.

Transformers run hedged on its OW. Its multiplier was in the 2's so the legs were nothing special but the biggest weekend in history deserves an inclusion into this top 10 list.

		Thursday Actuals						February 16
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	This Means War	--	$64,833	--	38	1	$64,833
--	2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	$46,547	--	30	1	$46,547
1	3	Romancing in Thin Air	$63,513	$29,669	-53.3%	38	20	$857,474
5	4	The Lady	$22,000	$15,150	-31.1%	15	1	$266,931
2	5	Contraband	$41,865	$13,370	-68.1%	35	1	$392,015
--	6	My Week with Marilyn	--	$12,593	--	13	8	$30,948
--	7	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close	$15,412	$10,446	--	16	8	$10,446
3	8	The Viral Factor	$25,195	$9,335	-62.9%	25	22	$2,785,451
7	9	War Horse	$15,412	$6,568	-57.4%	19	22	$453,912
--	10	Moneyball	--	$5,751	--	10	8	$5,751

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$4,484,014
3 Idiots	$3,012,744
I Love Hong Kong 2012	$2,456,999
Puss in Boots	$1,819,995
All's Well Ends Well 2012	$1,558,605
The Flowers of War	$1,301,539
Chronicle	$873,571
From Kokuriko Hill	$771,598

This Means War had a solid opening. It'll take in over $400,000 this weekend. Ok for Mr. & Mrs. Gambler. Not a good drop for Romancing in Thin Air. It will fall even harder on Saturday/Sunday but will pass 1m this weekend. The Lady had an excellent drop. It could have a decline of only 15-20% this weekend. Weak for Contraband. $550,000-$600,000 looks likely. Good for My Week with Marilyn. It could start off with $125,000. Extremely Loud did OK but not great. The Viral Factor had a huge decrease but it will slide towards 2.9m. War Horse could be running towards $575,000. Moneyball had a soft beginning.

Journey 2 will pass 4.5m either by the weekend or on Monday. Beating the original will depend on how many showtimes it gets next weekend. Hong Kong's 3 Idiots gross is so close to 3 Idiots South Korea's gross. It'll get there. The Flowers of War will close up shop with about 1.45m. Chronicle will get to $900,000 but 1m looks out of reach.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			February 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	This Means War	--	3,370	--	+38.7%
2	Romancing in Thin Air	6,341	3,046	-52.0%	+42.5%
3	The Lady	2,664	2,311	-13.3%	+109.7%
4	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	1,622	--	+21.3%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	1,213	--	+27.4%

	Friday adm.				February 17
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	This Means War	--	10,048	--	+82.7%
2	Romancing in Thin Air	14,573	7,324	-49.7%	+101.5%
3	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	7,146	--	+83.7%
4	The Lady	6,068	4,522	-25.5%	+111.3%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	3,249	--	+92.2%

I suspect that these gigantic increases were a result of the admissions site going down and losing admissions and not by a surge in admissions on Friday.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			February 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Romancing in Thin Air	10,435	4,057	-61.1%	+33.2%
2	This Means War	--	4,055	--	+20.3%
3	The Lady	3,985	3,240	-18.7%	+40.2%
4	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	2,660	--	+64.0%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	2,021	--	+66.6%

	Saturday adm.				February 18
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	This Means War	--	16,677	--	+66.0%
2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	12,848	--	+79.8%
3	Romancing in Thin Air	28,159	11,572	-58.9%	+58.0%
4	The Lady	9,909	9,072	-8.4%	+100.6%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	5,314	--	+63.6%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			February 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	This Means War	--	4,374	--	+7.9%
2	Romancing in Thin Air	10,951	3,976	-63.7%	-2.0%
3	The Lady	4,709	3,728	-20.8%	+15.1%
4	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	3,168	--	+19.1%
5	My Week with Marilyn	--	1,728	--	-14.5%

	Sunday adm.				February 19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	This Means War	--	14,213	--	-14.8%
2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	12,177	--	-5.2%
3	Romancing in Thin Air	23,018	9,072	-60.6%	-21.6%
4	The Lady	9,898	7,897	-20.2%	-13.0%
5	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close	--	4,073	--	--

	Weekend adm.			Feb 16-19
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	This Means War	--	46,439	--
2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	--	36,061	--
3	Romancing in Thin Air	76,260	31,602	-58.6%
4	The Lady	29,828	23,631	-20.8%

	Weekend Estimates			February 16
Rank	Title	TW (est.)	% chg	Total (est.)
1	This Means War	$420,000		$420,000
2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	$320,000		$320,000
3	Romancing in Thin Air	$210,000	-58.0%	$1,033,000
4	The Lady	$150,000	-12.3%	$401,500
5	Contraband	$100,000	-61.1%	$480,000

Ho-hum start for This Means War. While it did much better than Contraband, this film had 3 marketable actors and the proximity to Valentine's Day to enhance its grosses. Quite good for Mr. & Mrs. Gambler. Bad WOM from Romancing may have led to a few more walk-ins for this movie. Speaking of, Romancing in Thin Air sank. After Valentine's Day was over, people stayed away from this. General consensus seems to be that the storytelling hampered the film the most. After last year's success with Don't Go Breaking My Heart, Louis Koo will file this film away for a while. The Lady had an exquisite hold. Helped by the actual Aung San Suu Kyi making the news, it also seems like good WOM about the acting is pushing people to watch this. Contraband rounds out the top 5 with a big decline thanks to new competition. My Week with Marilyn landed somewhere in the top 6, I think. Without previews, this could stand at #6, but factoring in previews, it could sneak into the top 5. It will start with about $85,000 for this weekend with a total just over $100,000.

February 23 Predictions

Honourable mention - The Hangover 2

The Hangover 2 took care of business and delivered a strong $528,954 opening. It passed the original's gross in 1 week. It had good drops up until its 5th weekend where it got crushed by Transformers. It ended with $1.6m, more than double the original's gross and showed that Hollywood comedies still had a place in Hong Kong.

9. X-Men: First Class


Released: June 2, 2011
OW: $1,180,064
Total: $3,325,094

June 2 was not only the right time for comedies but also for superheroes. X-Men: First Class was the main attraction and attracted a huge turnout to the tune of $1.18m in its opening weekend. While that OW number was behind The Last Stand's 7 day gross, it was ahead of Wolverine's 5-day OW. It shrugged off the competition from The Hangover 2 and it had a promising start. The best part came later.

In its 2nd weekend, X-Men survived the typical X-Men dive into the abyss with a 53% drop. That drop was by far its best as the previous 2 X-Men films jumped off a cliff with a 60% drop or higher. That low drop by X-Men standards saw it lose #1 to Super 8 by just $16,000. For a movie that didn't get IMAX, it was fantastic news. Its 2nd weekend saw its total flash up to 2.3m, beating Wolverine and $400,000 behind The Last Stand. The real problem though was how would it stack up against Green Lantern, its brethren?

It soldiered on just fine, scoring a 44% decline even with the big competition. Its cume now stood past 2.8m and it moved ahead of The Last Stand on the same weekend to become the highest X-Men movie in the franchise. While many thought that Green Lantern would be its deathblow, it turned out to be its 2nd strongest hold of its run.

Turning it on even more, it slid just 32% in its 4th weekend and ran up its total to 3.19m.

There was no escaping a terrible drop its 5th weekend as Transformers pounced on every screen given to it and First Class scraped a $41,000 weekend for a 81% nosedive. It did not end the way it started, however, as it sputtered out of control and left Hong Kong with falls of 82% and 93% in its 6th and 7th weekends respectively.

In the end, it not only doubled Green Lantern's gross but it was the only one of the 4 superhero movies that broke 3m. Adding to the fact that the other 3 were in 3D while this was not was a huge factor. Furthermore, it handily defeated the rest of the X-Men films by a margin and kept up with the many male driven films by posting solid drops in its first 4 weekends.

Thursday schedules

Palace IFC
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Hugo 3D - 4 showings	La Délicatesse - 1 showing (▼ 3)
The Artist - 6 showings	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - 2 showings (▼ 5)
	Moneyball - 2 showings (▼ 5)
	My Week with Marilyn - 3 showings (▼ 5)
	This Means War - 4 showings (▲ 2)
	The Lady - 3 showings (▼ 5)
	The Ides of March - 1 showing (-)
	The Descendants - 1 showing (-)
	The Flowers of War - 1 showing (-)

Festival Walk
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Hugo 3D - 5 showings	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - 2 showings (▼ 5)	La Délicatesse
Safe House - 5 showings	Moneyball - 2 showings (▼ 5)	Contraband
Underworld: Awakening 3D - 5 showings	My Week with Marilyn - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Beauty & the Beast 3D
The Artist - 6 showings	This Means War - 6 showings (-)
	Romancing in Thin Air - 1 showing (▼ 3)
	The Lady - 2 showings (▼ 4)
	War Horse - 1 showing (-)
	The Ides of March - 1 showing (-)
	The Descendants - 1 showing (-)
	The Flowers of War - 1 showing (-)

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Hugo 3D - 5 showings	This Means War - 5 showings (▼ 7)	Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace 3D
Safe House - 6 showings	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - 1 showing (▼ 2)	Contraband
Underworld: Awakening 3D - 6 showings	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler - 3 showings (▼ 7)	Chronicle
The Artist - 5 showings	Romancing in Thin Air - 1 showing (▼ 6)	War Horse
Love - 6 showings	My Week with Marilyn - 3 showings (▼ 4)	New Perfect Two
	The Viral Factor - 2 showings (▼ 4)	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island 3D

15-20 theaters are picking up The Artist. Just looking at theater schedules today, Hugo and Underworld are in the wide release range but it looks like neither will get ultra wide treatment. Underworld 4 still has the edge in theater counts. Meanwhile, Love might get the nod above both of them. It is already in 25 theaters so far and there are still more theaters that haven't released their Thursday schedule yet. Safe House is also doing OK with theater counts. It's been booked in about 20-25 theaters.

This Means War and Mr. & Mrs. Gambler are getting the majority of the screens left. Big losers this week include The Viral Factor, The Flowers of War, Contraband, War Horse. Romancing in Thin Air will lose a lot of showtimes this week but a sizable amount of theaters will continue showing this once a day.

Weekend Actuals (openers) + Totals

1 Romancing in Thin Air - $1,026,707
2 This Means War - $405,016 (weekend actual)
3 Mr. & Mrs. Gambler - $301,828 (weekend actual)
4 The Lady - $386,256
5 Contraband - $453,813
6 The Viral Factor - $2,831,460
7 My Week With Marilyn - $100,961 (weekend actual)
8 War Horse - $500,919
9 Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close - $90,605 (weekend actual)
10 Star Wars: Episode I 3D - $193,865

Not much different from estimates.

Updated February 23 Predictions

1. Underworld: Awakening - $530,000
2. Hugo - $420,000
3. Love - $350,000/$400,000
4. Safe House - $230,000
5. Mr. & Mrs. Gambler - $150,000

Hugo is getting less screens than Underworld and Love so I think its chances #1 are much lower now. I don't expect Underworld to do any fantastic business but it'll be enough for #1. Love is the big change up. It is doing very well in China and Taiwan where it has already made $40m CNY and $60m NTD respectively. It also did excellent last weekend in North America where it made $83,178 for a PTA of $11,883. Here, it has the most screens of any opener and is performing the best of any of the new releases so far.

Feb. 16 Weekend Actuals

								Feb. 16 WKD
Rank	Film Title	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Theaters	Per Theater Average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	This Means War	Fox Int'l	$405,238	1	35	$11,578		$568,594
2	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	Newport Ent.	$303,310	1	30	$10,110		$438,946
3	Romancing In Thin Air	Media Asia	$197,449	2	38	$5,196	-60%	$1,079,286
4	Lady, The	Golden Scene	$134,477	2	14	$9,606	-22%	$430,530
5	My Week With Marilyn	Sundream	$100,998	1	13	$7,769		$129,405
6	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close	Warner Bros Int'l	$90,639	1	15	$6,043		$123,825
7	Contraband	Universal Int'l	$75,726	2	35	$2,164	-71%	$479,446
8	Viral Factor, The	UA Films/Emperor	$55,356	5	24	$2,306	-63%	$2,855,575
9	War Horse	Walt Disney Int'l	$53,490	3	18	$2,972	-52%	$519,353
10	Moneyball	Sony Int'l	$45,981	1	10	$4,598		$60,336

Not bad for This Means War. Mr. & Mrs. Gambler had an impressive opening. Terrible drop for Romancing in Thin Air. The Lady had an excellent hold. My Week with Marilyn's Valentine's Day sneaks didn't add much to its weekend total. Extremely Loud didn't do well. Huge drop for Contraband but that was no surprise. The Viral Factor also got hit hard by This Means War. War Horse's run has been unspectacular. OK opening, mediocre legs. Moneyball did really poor but no one knows what baseball is over here.

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		February 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Underworld: Awakening 3D	--	4,916	--
2	Hugo 3D	--	1,926	--
3	Safe House	--	1,318	--
4	This Means War	2,430	1,273	-47.6%
5	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	1,337	1,114	-16.7%

	Thursday adm.			February 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Underworld: Awakening 3D	--	8,437	--
2	This Means War	5,501	3,488	-36.6%
3	Safe House	--	3,382	--
4	Hugo 3D	--	2,945	--
5	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	3,890	2,867	-26.3%

		Thursday Actuals						February 23
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Theaters	Days	Total
--	1	Underworld: Awakening	--	$82,246	--	35	1	$82,246
--	2	Love	--	$41,940	--	28	1	$121,215
--	3	Safe House	--	$30,600	--	27	1	$30,600
1	4	This Means War	$64,833	$29,187	-55.0%	36	8	$597,258
2	5	Mr. & Mrs. Gambler	$46,547	$25,261	-45.7%	30	8	$462,938
--	6	Hugo	--	$18,003	--	21	1	$18,003
--	7	The Artist	--	$13,815	--	17	1	$24,500
4	8	The Lady	$15,150	$9,141	-39.7%	14	15	$439,727
3	9	Romancing in Thin Air	$29,669	$6,126	-79.4%	29	15	$1,091,171
7	10	Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close	$10,446	$5,484	-47.5%	16	8	$128,952

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$4,528,017
3 Idiots	$3,015,954
The Viral Factor	$2,855,784
I Love Hong Kong 2012	$2,465,712
The Flowers of War	$1,326,290
Chronicle	$894,440
From Kokuriko Hill	$780,478
The Descendants	$667,532

Nothing special for Underworld 4. It'll make about half a million for the weekend. Love may not have ranked in the top 5 in Thursday admissions but is doing good. It's been doing well almost everywhere else. I see a weekend of $300,000 in its future. Safe House did OK numbers. The number of action films this month has diluted everyone's grosses to some extent. This Means War had a pretty good drop considering all the openers this week. It is heading towards $800,000. Mr. & Mrs. Gambler held well in face of competition. I could see it making $750,000. Hugo did very poorly. I think if there was a dub as well, it would do so much better. Alas, it is only going to make about $150,000 this weekend. The Artist opened well. It could even increase on Sunday depending on how it does at the Oscars. Maybe $125,000 for this weekend. The Lady had another great drop. It is going past $550,000. Horrible fall for Romancing in Thin Air. It will make about 1.15-1.18m before leaving theaters. Bland total for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. $175,000 for its total is possible.

Journey 2 barely managed to beat the original. It had a few scares the last couple of weeks but it pulled through.