I had to look up where Benelux was.

Those numbers are amazing. Can't wait till more numbers come in this weekend. Good time to be a box office fan.

Don't be ashamed, that's probably the first time i've even heard of the term , they sure don't use it often.

$850+ million internationally, here we come

Stop copying me dammit, i chose $850m first. ahem, choose something else.

$851+ million, here we come!

Hahaha, Arch was asking for it.

900 million

Too early for those predictions. I think it has a good shot now for $700m OS total.

So....where to now for Australia?

HBP went on to gross $14,330,931 over the regular 4-Day Thu to Sunday frame and $18,705,212 overall 5-Day. So the opening day ended up being 24% of its overall weekend gross. It has the 5-Day record.

Some others:

* OOTP did $16,973,961 5-Day and $12,871,680 4-Day; or also 24%.
* Transformers 2 did $16,294,847 5-Day and $13,647,361 4-Day; or 16%
* Transformers 3 did $15,054,508 5-Day and $12,414,137 4-Day; or 17.5%
* The Dark Knight did $14,057,430 5-Day and $11,779,716 4-Day; or 16%
* FOTR did $13,872,707 5-Day and $9,749,937 4-Day; or 30% (this is because it's opening day is probably the biggest BO day of the year)

So, if it has something similar to FOTR (quite possible since HP7.2's opening day is midnight boosted)...it'll be looking at $23.43m 5-Day and $16.4m 4-Day (which will give it the opening record). Anything more than 30% ratio and it runs the risk of not claiming the only other record worth getting this week; i.e. New Moon's 4-Day $16.1m record.

If it does the same as HP6 and HP5; it'll be looking at a delicious $29.9m. Or if its like Transformers and TDK, expect $43.9m (LOL, that would give it the title of the largest Potter movie EVER on just opening weekend...so yeah, unlikely).

I see it doing more like FOTR of course. If you take out the midnights estimate of around AU$2.3m....you're looking at a $4.7m OD if when applied to a HP6/HP5 style 24% ratio....will give it $19.6m.

At the momment, i see anywhere between $22m-25m possible. Anything outside of this would definately be surprising.

You're probably relying on a $50m+ gross in China and $150m gross in Japan i see

800m OS take it to the bank

+ DOM = 1.13 billion

No it is not making $150m in Japan

You do realise that it'll make just about half of that this weekend alone...

The fight will be taken to Pirates 4 at around the $800m mark, anything less would take a disastrous turn of events in some major markets.

I am pretty sure that even with 3D this will not make $350m OS on OW. Maybe WW but not OS alone.

If it's not making 900 million, I'm blaming it on Hong Kong.

Indeed, it seems now that only an Avatar or Studio Ghibli release has the power to get that high.

Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story 3 and Pirates 4 all fell short of the mark despite lengthy runs and brilliant holds.

WW it'll get to $350m by the end of Friday alone. This is gunning for at least $450m by Sunday.

I think a $300m+ OS opening is in play, with $350m being a total outperform. $300-320m looks good coupled with around $150-165m from the Domestic market and suddenly, even $500m WW doesn't look too far.

If it does open to $350m OS, with HBP's multiplier (2.68) it would end up with over $930m OS. No way it does that, it mustn't do that! Please be $300m or below...

The only comparison i have for Germany in US$ is ROTS doing $2.6m from Wednesday 8pm + midnights contributing to a $5.6m+ opening day.

Raumschiff surprised did 164k adms. from its Wednesday 10pm showings which is roughly 26% of its overall opening day admissions take of 625k or $5m+...so an estimate for that would be around $1.3m.

Mark/Lecter, do you have any thoughts and comparisons?

For France, i don't have any comparisons unfortunately.

I don't know but in half markets it is releasing on Thursday, and just because it is getting the biggest opening in one market I don't see it suddenly surging everywhere. It is in 3D and OS markets favor 3D so I am sure it will take the records at most places due to the frontloadedness. Still I don't see its IM being as great for the weekend, quite similar to domestic market where it will open big and then settle for normal weekdays.

OD records were a given so I don't see the reason for such massive over-predictions when the numbers of a single day from one market are out.

Yes, yes, Jack Sparrow speaks wisely.

HBP had the pleasure of having China on its opening weekend (with Japan). It did however left out a few markets on opening...

Argentina 23 July 2009
Croatia 23 July 2009
Hungary 23 July 2009
Lebanon 23 July 2009
Cyprus 24 July 2009
Estonia 24 July 2009
Latvia 24 July 2009
Poland 24 July 2009
Romania 24 July 2009
Greece 25 August 2009

I think Potter has most of the markets above. Argentina, Hungary and Poland should pull in decent numbers for 7.2 on opening. So it may loose a potential US$10m China opening, but will make up for it in the rest. Also factor in strong increases across the board and 3D i think it may just pass $300m on opening. Australia's increase alone is looking like 30% above HBP.

I see 7.2 to match HBP in the Domestic opening stakes by Sunday (HBP of course had the 5-Day opening) and should get to $300m OS. So looking like $460m WW on opening.

It'll probably have a multiplier at least on par with HBP. So $300m OS would give it $810m+ easily.

1) Harry Potter 6: HBP - $158,022,354 + $237,000,000 = $395,022,354 (5-Day - 84/15,900)
2) Transformers 3: Dark Of The Moon - $162,618,212 + $219,810,798 = $382,429,010 (5.5-Days - 58/9075)
3) Spiderman 3 - $151,116,516 + $230,544,376 = $381,660,892 (6-Days - 107/16,711)
4) Pirates Of The Caribbean 4: On Stranger Tides - $90,151,958 + $260,400,000 = $350,551,958 (100/18,210)
5) Pirates Of The Caribbean 3: At World’s End - $127,972,864 + $216,361,000 = $344,333,864 (5-Days - 102/17,600)
6) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $139,715,157 + $193,000,000 = $332,715,157 (5-Days)
7) Harry Potter 7-1: DH - $125,017,372 + $205,000,000 = $330,017,372 (5-Days - 54/19,000)
8) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $158,449,700 + $145,534,793 = $303,984,493 (5-Days - 105c/114t/10,489)
9) Indiana Jones: The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull - $125,178,907 + $146,388,656 = $271,567,563 (55/8427)
10) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $124,100,534 + $126.8m = $250.9m (5-Days - 28t/14,000+)

Harry Potter 3: POA - $93,687,367 + $113.51m = $207.21m (24/7804)
Harry Potter 4: GOF - $102,685,961 + $85.5m = $188.2m
The Hangover: Part II - $117,556,661 + $60,250,000 = $177,806,661 (40/5170)
Harry Potter 2: COS - $88,357,488 + $59.5m = $147.5m (3-Days - 9c)
Harry Potter 1: SS - $90,294,621 + $26m = $116m (3-Days - 3c)

Come out and fight me coward !

Uh, you do realise that HBP made $237m on opening? Do you seriously think that 7.2 cannot make $60m with 3D and rush out factor across the board. Take a look at Transformers 3.

You always forget the bigger it opens the harder it will fall. This movie is killing everything across the board give or take a few movies I don't think it will hold onto that many screens for next weekend and while I do agree that there might be a chance for $300m OS on the opening 4-days (I'd rather call it that), I still see it making $270m-$280m for the weekend. Which should be more than enough to break OW records everywhere and then have decent legs for $700m-$750m OS total which would be a little better than HBP's OS multiplier

Yes I think so (though not very seriously ). You have to realize that 3D screens also take up a lot of 2D screens, it is not releasing in THAT many extra screens, and that $60m while looks easy is that difficult.