Awfully hard to do that, HP7-2 is not even going to come close to 10m. I also sense danger in the form of Ice Age 4 potentially doing even more in Germany than The Hobbit.

After Potter and LOTRs, Ice Age is the biggest franchise. And the past few Ice Ages have demolished the Potters.

I'm thinking 8m-9m realistically but am hoping for much more. Wouldn't it be great if it can continue the LOTR streak and have all releases above 10m admissions.

As big as Avatar was it didn't crack 10m in Germany by much

Very good articule....

http://www.halamovie.com/the-hobbit-cou ... th-cinema/

They need to amp up the nostalgia in the marketing and also for Part 2, really hit home to audiences that this is going to be the LAST EVER Middle-Earth feature film experience they will have at least in their lifetime..

A sad thought

Well, there's still the Silmarilion....and they could make an amazing film based on Numenor. The article said the Tolkein estate didn't wan to give away any more rights for adaptations outside of LOTR/Hobbit...but you never know.

I doubt they will, they haven't released the rights yet. And if they're not going to release it after The Hobbit then i doubt they ever will......

IMAX Format pursues first-run window from studios

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118040573?refCatId=14

Rapid expansion and disappointing box office sent Imax's second-quarter earnings into sharp decline, though the period brought robust theater signings that created a record number of venues in the company's installation backlog.
Imax reported $1.8 million in net earnings, down 87% from the same period in 2010. Earnings-per-share were 7¢, missing expectations of 20¢ by 65%.

CEO Rich Gelfond blamed a dearth of blockbuster titles in early 2011 and suggested in a call with shareholders that the company has approached studios about running films before their wide release -- and may even have a title soon. He also suggested that Imax may screen fewer movies to give top performers a longer playtime, a strategy that should play well now that "The Dark Knight Rises," "The Hobbit" and "The Amazing Spider-Man" have all committed to Imax runs in 2012.

On the bright side, Gelfond said a recent uptick with "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" and "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2" has improved long-term prospects, and 153 theaters have signed up for installation in 2011, a new record. At this point, Imax's conversion backlog is around 300 locations.

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Long plays on IMAX will surely bolster legs. TDKR more than the other two will rely heavily on IMAX as it doesn't have 3D tickets to bolster box office takings. Obviously that didn't prevent TDK from grossing $500m+ LOL

The Hobbit could well have one of the widest releases of all-time (dependent on running time) next year. At the momment, no medium size movie dares to open within 2 weeks prior to release; while that could change, I see these two weeks to be a breather for the market (November 2012 looks quite strong) before cinemas make way for the Hobbit and the rest of the December slate.

I'm interested to see how Sherlock Holmes does this year in December, like The Hobbit, it'll face some pretty strong competition in its 2nd weekend, i want to see how it holds....as this could be a precusor for The Hobbit.

On a side note, I wonder if Life of Pi or World War Z are 3D films? I hope they're not so as to not steal screens from The Hobbit

Ok, it looks like the Life of Pi is being shot in 3D, no mention of World War Z being in 3D yet.

Let's take a closer look at the competition in December 2012

Life of Pi

Release Date = December 21st, 2011
Genre = Fantasy Adventure (2001 Novel Adaptation)
Director = Ang Lee
Actors = Suraj Sharma, Tobey Maguire, Gerard Depardieu
Budget = $50m apperently
3D = Yes



Ang Lee returns to cinema after 2009's dissapointing Taking Woodstock with what could be his most commercial or mainstream potential movie since 2003's The Hulk (unless you count 2005's Brokeback Mountain). This is currently Fox's major release for the 2012 Holiday season and it's being shot in 3D with a somewhat small budget of $50m. Ang Lee is a bit of a hit and miss and his biggest release to date remains The Hulk's $132,177,234 from a $62,128,420 opening. This movie is more off-beat than your regular family adventure / fantasy and everything from the plot to the cast to the director indicates that this is going to focus more on character, imagery and intense themes such as religion and life.

Although the genre and audience this movie is aiming for could well seem like it's gunning for the Hobbit's audience, i think it may skew older and definately outside of the core mainstream audience. It may do better overseas with its diverse cast but unless it garners wonderful acclaim and Oscar buzz like Slumdog Millioanire ($141m in 2008), it may struggle to cross $100m. Other comparisons that comes to my mind include Big Fish ($67m in 2003), Lemony Snicket ($118m in 2004) and The Brother's Grimm ($38m in 2005). If it skews very young and light, it may reach the levels of Bridge of Terabitha, The Golden Compass, Eragon, The Spiderwick Chronicles around the $70-90m mark. However, if they go too oddball with this, it may find itself near The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus ($8m) or even Stardust's $38,634,938.

At the momment, i'm thinking an opening around $15-25m and finish around $60-80m is likely.

THREAT RATING - Low to Medium

Hunter Killer

Release Date = December 21st, 2011
Genre = Action-thriller/Submarine (Novel Adaptation)
Director = Philip Noyce
Actors = TBC
Budget = TBC
3D = TBC





Relativity Media's entry definately adds some much needed modern action to the December 2012 slate. This will be Philip Noyce's first big feature film since 2010's Salt. No cast has been confirmed just yet though when you've directed the likes of Angelina Jolie, Harrison Ford, Denzel Washington, Michael Caine, Tim Robbins; expect a quality cast which doesn't necessary skew too mainstream. We shall see. Noyce's biggest release to date is still 1994's Clear And Present Danger with Harrison Ford; it grossed $123m...followed by Salt's $118m (which is his largest opener at $36m).

This movie plays on too major genre's including Political Action Thriller as well as the submarine. Obvious parallels can be drawn to The Hunt For Red October ($17m / $122m in 199), Crimson Tide ($18m / $91m in 1995), U-571 ($19.5m / $77m in 2000) and the most recent, Katherine Bigalow's K-19 Widowmaker ($13m / $35m). As you can see, not exactly a genre of big grossers. Though if it plays more to something like Salt / Clear and Present Danger, it could well be headed for a healthier tally north of $70m. I think this movie needs a really big name in the lead role to bolster its chances of $50m+; otherwise, it may just be another semi-B-Grade type flick or something which you would find in the slower seasons.

Can't comment on how much it'll gross, but unless it packs a whopping cast and skews mainstream, i don't think this will hit $100m. Though that being said, even with a stellar cast, movies like Hanna, Bodie of Lies, The Manchurian Candidate, The Adjustment Beaureu could not gross much more than the $40-70m region.

THREAT RATING = Low to Medium

I agree with you, even if Star Trek opens in December 2012, it'll have a hard time selling to international audiences. Not that i'm saying that'll happen because World War Z, another Paramount release already stakes claim in December 2012.

World War Z to me looks like the biggest threat of all. Surprisingly, this Zombie flick is perhaps the most mainstream of all with Brad Pitt in the lead and apocalyptic theme which we've seen played very well in the past...i.e. 2012, I Am Legend. It also carries with it a somewhat sizeable $125m budget which (even if the movie is shit) will at least have a strong marketing push.

Lone Ranger has not been officially removed from the 2012 date; they're obviously seeing if they can get the budget down.....though i hope they delay Lone Ranger.....selfish reasons of course

World War Z

Release Date = December 21st, 2011
Genre = Zombie Apocalyptic, Action Horror (novel Adaptation)
Director = Marc Foster
Actors = Brad Pitt
Budget = $125m reported
3D = TBC







For me, WWZ is the biggest threat next year (i'm assuming here that The Lone Ranger will be postponed even if they sort out the budget woes). It's got that I Am Legend vibe and if you could remember, that movie did really well back in 2007. Like IAL, this is no ordinary b-grade zombie bloodfest, it's got a big budget and big lead actor in the form of Brad Pitt. This is Paramount's biggest release and by staking a claim in December, it leads me to believe that Paramount will of course save Star Trek II for 2013. It'll be Paramount's 2nd release of the holiday season after My Mother's Curse in the first weekend of November.

I Am Legend surprised many with what is still the largest opening weekend of December with $77m just above Avatar. It went on to gross a huge $256m and survived Alvin in its opening weekend and National Treasure 2 in its 2nd weekend. In fact, IAL's opening day of December 14th will be the same spot The Hobbit is targeting. 2007 December was supposed to start with The Golden Compass but IAL demolished it in its sophomore session and was the first December hit that year. The budget of IAL (i.e. $150m) is not too far off WWZ.

Brad Pitt is perhaps the closest match you'll get to the likes of Will Smith in terms of mainstream success and plays well across most genres. He's movies normally gross north of $100m, though not always on the strength of his own shoulders. He's largest release and opener is still Mr And Mrs Smith's $50m / $186m (that one of course played on his chemistry with Agenlina) while you'll have to look to Troy and Curious Case of Benjamin Button where he truly shined. Both pics as big as they are only managed the $120m-$135m in the domestic market. So while he's definately a big name, he's no Will Smith or even Tom Cruise, to date.

Marc Foster is not new to big budget action features. His largest was 2008's Quantum of Solace which grossed $67m / $168m though that has more to do with the brand name than his directorship. That was his only $100m+ grosser to date. He's however a very character driven director with success such as Monster's Ball, Finding Neverland and The Kite Runner.

While the Post-Apocalyptic feature is lead by IAL, there are not many that have grossed above $200m though. War of the Worlds and Signs was more big sci-fi big and both were released in Summer where these pics tend to do well. Other comparisons can be drawn to 2012 (though that one was more disaster and had the big SFX though only made $166m Domestically) and Terminator Salvation ($125m which had a brand name). You then have to go down to the sub $80m for Dawn of the Dead, 28 Days Later...etc.

This one is the biggest threat but could also dissapoint. This genre is not always surefire and could well end up less than $100m if things go terribly wrong. Not saying that it will because with a lack of other big name releases next December, it'll certainly help movies like this breakout. The SFX will be key to the marketing and they need to show very big epic scope action to win audiences. At the momment i'm thinking an opening around the $35-60m region is possible and could well go on to gross anywhere between $130-220m.

THREAT RATING = Medium to High

http://www.latinoreview.com/news/philip ... vity-14544

The director Philip Noyce has dropped out.....hmm...these pics usually don't take too long to film so there's still possibility of it opening in the same slot.

The Men Behind The Make-Up: The Dwarves Of The Hobbit

http://www.empireonline.com/features/ho ... efault.asp

==

Very useful guide, describes the actors and their characters as well.

Looks like they're all converging now for the next lot of shooting.....Orlando Bloom will surely be there.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/ar ... ds-newsxml

I'm glad your updating this thread Arch, I always look forward to checking it out.

World War Z is the biggest threat outside of The Lone Ranger (which will probably move to the next summer). However, I didn't realise Marc Foster is directing. That brings its potential down a peg or two.

The Hobbit will tower above the other December films.

Life of Pi was a big selling book so the film will be reasonably popular - though much more than $100m seems unlikely.

It just occured to me that The Great Gatsby is getting released in 2012. That movie apparently has a $150m budget or something around that.

Checking IMDB it says it's getting a November release in the states, though i won't be surprised if they open in limited before going wide around the December timeframe.

That will surely have a big marketing push with all the big names. More an Oscar bait movie it seems.

From TORN:

“Jackson’s spokesman would not reveal which celebrities were currently in Wellington, but said filming had resumed last week and would continue until December. “

--

So this December will mark the end of the initial photography....one would think there will be pickups early next year before the release latter in the year.

I don't think so. They have been shooting only about 50 days in the first block, they have about 250 days of shooting in total, so there's still a lot to come. December (Christmas break) just marks the end of block 2, next year they'll continue with block 3 and so forth.

Or did you mean for the 1st movie? Hmm, maybe, although my hunch is they'll still shoot some stuff for Part 1 in block 3 next year (plus pickups).

That's a lot of shooting, pity not the majority are outdoors or partly outdoors like LOTR. I hope they don't loose the natural quality.

Well the fact that next year's December crop look like surefire success is encouraging; though one has to be realistic and think that at least one of them will break out bigtime. The holiday season is just too big to have one success.

Take a look at Avatar, as big as it was, it still allowed room for Sherlock Holmes and Alvin to both make more than $200m.

I gotta feeling World War Z is going to be the true force to be reckoned with next year in terms of competition. Also, if there's not going to be a success out of the big names then expect an Oscar hopeful (i.e. something like The Great Gatsby...etc) to do decent numbers through December-March.

I really hope The Hobbit can cause an upset and take down TDKR. As much as i love TDK and in any other year would want its successor to be #1....next year, it has to be The Hobbit that will dominate. I will not tolerate failure on both domestic and especially overseas fronts.

World War Z won't be big competition for The Hobbit in Asia. Just look at I Am Legend which had terrible holds in most of Asia (- Japan). This will probably do fantastic business in Europe and South America though.

The Great Gatsby could do bigger than expected but I think either The Hobbit reigns supreme or a local release will compete with it. China's productions will certainly get a lot of attention and I wouldn't be surprised if they released a tentpole of their own Christmas weekend.

Do you really think WWZ will do that well in Europe? The emerging eastern european countries yes, but western europe? South America i can see. I hope it gets a staggred rollout....and doesn't release everywhere all at once.

As for China, they normally release a big local at the end of the year. Let's see which release date TH targets...because if it follows LOTR they may need to wait until 2013. Though the potential is there to do very big numbers in China. They need to promote it like crazy.....though i'm worried the Chinease government might use its power to promote their own local flick more...it has happened. I want to see a record run in China.

I wonder if Django Unchained will be much of a threat. Though knowing Tarantino...his dark dramas doesn't appeal to all markets. Inglrous Basterds did well in some European countries though was mild everywhere else. Also its subject matter is not that mainstream as well which will help The Hobbit.

I think so. I don't think something as politically sensitive as war will turn people away in those countries. Pearl Harbor didn't stop the Japanese from flocking to watch it in theaters. Then again, they had to rewrite parts of the script and market it as a love story and not war. I'm sure if worst comes to shove, Plan B will rewrite parts of the script (if necessary) and then release it to the Western European countries. I Am Legend saw Asian markets get it first. I don't think studios would want to risk putting this one weekend after The Hobbit is out so I think what happens is Europe gets it first (+ Australia) then South America and finally Asia.

Well, I wasn't talking about China itself but China and the surrounding markets (HK, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam). Yes, The Hobbit will most likely get the shaft for a local release in China but in other Asian territories, The Hobbit could theoretically go up against the local release. If it is on the scale of the Jet Li film being released at the end of this year then The Hobbit could face a bit of trouble in those regions. It will probably go up against an anime/animation film in Japan.

No to Django Unchained. I think it's too dark for it to rake in a ton of money. It shouldn't pose much of a threat to The Hobbit.

A record run in China is a little too much to ask i think...