Is 1.5m still happening then?

I hope so! It can still pull in decent numbers on the small screens, but it's too early to say (first showings are still 4-6 hours away). I'll post the data from the Usual Locations around this time tomorrow. The comparison they use will probably be Star Wars EP1 3D, so that'll give us an idea of what to expect for the weekend gross.

Puss in Boots hit the ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) milestone on it's 20th day (Wednesday) in release.

SPEC: The Movie is receiving the biggest screens this weekend and appears to be performing above expectations (¥300 million+ or $4 million+). Should be an easy victory afterall this weekend.


Best known for playing the role of Misa Amane in the Death Note franchise, SPEC stars Erika Toda, a 23-year old model/actress, who has had many successful TV Dramas (Boys Over Flowers 2, Liar Game, Code Blue, and a dozen others) and feature films since debuting in 2005.

Filmography:

2006, Death Note (Warner Bros.) ¥2.85 billion ($25 million)
2006, Death Note: The Last Name (Warner Bros.) ¥5.2 billion ($42 million)
2007, Ten Nights of Dreaming (10x10) Limited Release.
2007, Arthur and the Minimoys* (Asmik Ace) ¥600 million ($5 million)
2008, L: Change the World (Warner Bros.) ¥3.1 billion ($31 million)
2009, Goemon (Shochiku) ¥1.43 billion ($16 million)
2009, Amalfi: Rewards of the Goddess (Toho) ¥3.65 billion ($40 million)
2009, The Sun That Doesn't Set (Toho) ¥2.80 billion ($30 million)
2010, Liar Game: The Final Stage (Toho) ¥2.36 billion ($26 million)
2011, Hankyu Densha (Toho) ¥1.14 billion ($14 million)
2011, Andalucia: Retribution of the Goddess (Toho) ¥1.88 billion ($24 million)
2011, DOG X POLICE (Toho) ¥800 million ($10 million)
2012, SPEC: The Movie (Toho)

*voice

She's certainly one of the most successful young actresses right now.

SPEC: The Movie is being reported to have tracked 26% ahead of Crows Zero II (which opened to ¥569 million yen in 2009) through yesterday morning and day, and also had solid night business, too.

Toho is already claiming SPEC will gross over ¥3 billion (about $40 million) through Golden Week (April 29th - May 6th), but these first day reports can sometimes really overproject and be misleading, so take caution.

http://eiga.com/news/20120407/3/

Either way though, the film is looking strong playing on just 297 screens. Usually Toho gives these TV Drama movies around 400 screens.

that mean SPEC the Movie will be no.1 in japan boxoffice this weekend?
and will be total gross more 3 Billion Yen?
actually i'm not crazy or excite for this movie (not a fan of this drama)
but, 3 billion yen... i mean... wow~

It's definitely going to be No.1, but a ¥3 billion total is just Toho's projection or target based on first days ticket sales. Sometimes they're accurate, but often times they overproject by a wide margin. It almost seems intentional since they do it so much. The complete opposite of how Hollywood studios lowball their films before they open.

There was no Saturday data released this morning so I can't back up that report. Weekend data should be available tomorrow.

Are you from Japan? I enjoy some of their TV dramas (Gokusen is a favorite), but I haven't watched SPEC. I'm recently watched Buzzer Beat, though, have you seen it? It stars Yamashita Tomohisa.

i'm not live in japan
but i love jdrama
those drama that you mention ...well, it not my cup of tea
about SPEC... try it... you might like it
i guess this movie will do well in box office
a lot of fan-base of this drama + this news --> http://www.tokyohive.com/2012/04/masi-oka-to-remake-spec-into-an-us-drama/#disqus_thread

Please excuse my poor english. hope you understand me ><

I read that on Eiga with the report I posted above. It's very interesting the guy from Heroes is remaking SPEC into a US TV Drama series. I wonder when to expect it here.

And your English is just fine.

April 7-8
Weekend Estimates
(based on the Usual Locations)

1 (NEW) SPEC: The Movie (Toho) ¥448,500,000 ($5.5 million), 0, Week 1
2 (1) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥98,200,000 ($1.21 million), -67.1%, Week 6
3 (2) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) ¥91,200,000 ($1.13 million), -52.7%, Week 4
4 (NEW) Titanic 3D (FOX) ¥73,900,000 ($909,000), 0, Week 1
5 (NEW) The Artist (Gaga) ¥61,000,000 ($751,000), 0, Week 1
6 (3) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥50,600,000 ($622,000), -69.1%, Week 5
7 (5) Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future (TOEI) ¥45,700,000 ($562,000), -57.8%, Week 4
8 (7) Ultraman Saga (Shochiku) ¥38,900,000 ($478,000), -58.9%, Week 3
9 (8) Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros.) ¥34,400,000 ($423,000), -58.9%, Week 2
10 (6) Liar Game: Reborn (Toho) ¥27,900,000 ($343,000), -72.3%, Week 6

This weekend (post-Spring Break) in the past has seen 50% drops across the board before, but some of these are really, really big. I think they have to improve at least a little bit in the morning. Puss in Boots drops 81.2% and out of the Top 10. It probably lost many 3D screens, but that's still really harsh.

Anyway, very impressive for SPEC. Approx. ¥450 million will indeed bring it close to the ¥3 billion ($40 million) milestone distributor Toho projected yesterday.

Not too bad for Titanic 3D given it played only once or twice on the smallest screens at most locations. It's less than expected, but it should shine during the weekdays with the Wednesday, Ladies Day boost that female driven films receive. It's tough to project a total here since it should thrive during the weekdays, but a minimum of ¥500 million ($6/7 million) is likely.

Decent for The Artist, but also a bit under expectations for a Best Picture winner. Reviews are excellent, so legs should be very strong.

The next two weekends sees a lot of competition opening, but Golden Week is also coming up at the end of the month, so the general legs for the openers should be above the average 5 or 6 multiplier.

Is it possible for Liar Game: Reborn surpass 2 billion yen?
T__T

Yes, it probably did this weekend, or if it's just shy, it will this week. It was only 130 million away last Sunday, and it should have made over 100 million during the weekdays.

Hugo will soon become the 21st film this year to reach the ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) milestone.

MovieWalker is reporting a sixth weekend gross of just ¥5,992,500 ($74,000) with 3,784 admissions, but that brings it's six week total to ¥990,956,000 ($12.2 million) with 703,649 admissions.

All the 3D releases after it opened killed it's legs (5.7x is okay though), so reaching that milestone later this week will be a great accomplishment.

Weekend Ranking [April 7-8]

Estimates were low like I thought they were.

*SPEC: The Movie sees the fourth biggest debut since November.
*Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles breaks 3 billion after six weeks.
*Titanic 3D debuts in fourth, which isn't too bad.
*The Artist debuts in seventh, no figures have been released yet however.

2012 Box Office Charts
As of 04/08:

Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥5.40 / $70.80 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount
02 :: ¥3.38 / $42.88 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.09 :: 37 :: Toho
03 :: ¥3.34 / $42.56 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.63 :: TE :: Toho
04 :: ¥3.08 / $40.34 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.31 :: TE :: Toho
05 :: ¥2.01 / $24.98 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.64 :: 37 :: Toho
06 :: ¥1.91 / $23.70 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 1.57 :: 23 :: Asmik Ace/Toho
07 :: ¥1.86 / $23.14 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.52 :: 31 :: Warner Bros.
08 :: ¥1.77 / $22.91 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.38 :: 52 :: FOX
09 :: ¥1.69 / $22.24 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.31 :: TE :: Shochiku
10 :: ¥1.68 / $21.73 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.34 :: TE :: Toho
11 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI
12 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho
13 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI
14 :: ¥1.42 / $18.60 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.11 :: TE :: Walt Disney
15 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho
16 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony
17 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho
18 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho
19 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa
20 :: ¥1.07 / $13.22 :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .801 :: 23 :: Paramount

-KEY-
New Entry
Indicates a film still in release or being tracked.
Days in Release: TE (Tracking Ends, Awaiting Estimate/Actual) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)


Top Opening Weekends (¥200 million+)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
02 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
04 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho
05 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho
06 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
07 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
08 :: ¥314.70 / $3.91 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho
09 :: ¥303.35 / $3.72 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.
10 :: ¥295.31 / $3.65 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Toho/Asmik Ace
11 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX
12 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho
13 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony
14 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney
15 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa
16 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho

Another huge week for Doraemon 32. It will be killed this weekend like it is every year against the Detective Conan/Crayon Shin-chan combo, but it's less than 200 million away now from becoming the biggest Doraemon film ever.

Also very good for Liar Game (hitting 2 billion), We Were There: Part I, and Sherlock Holmes 2.

Distributor Toho Update:

Films released by distributor Toho earned ¥6,601,595,257 ($82 million) in March, a 41.1% increase over last March. From Jan.-Mar., films released by Toho have earned a total of ¥15,911,132,187 ($197 million), a 17.4% increase over last year.

Toho may be on course to break ¥80 billion ($1 billion) this year.

Few other facts:

*11 of the Top 20 films this year have been released by Toho.
*A Toho release has been No.1 for 9 out of the 14 weeks so far this calendar year.

April 14-15
Weekend Forecast



1 (NEW) Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) ¥500-525 million ($6-6.5 million), Week 1
2 (NEW) Battleship (Toho-Towa) ¥425-450 million ($5-5.5 million), Week 1
3 (1) SPEC: The Movie (Toho) ¥350-375 million ($4-4.5 million), Week 2
4 (NEW) John Carter (Walt Disney) ¥250-275 million ($3-3.5 million), Week 1
5 (NEW) Crayon Shin-chan: Arashi o Yobu! Ora to Uchū no Princess (Toho) ¥175-200 million ($2-2.5 million), Week 1
6 (2) We Were There: Part I (Toho) ¥70-80 million ($850-950,000), Week 5
7 (4) Titanic 3D (FOX) ¥60-70 million ($750-850,000), Week 2
8 (3) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥45-55 million ($550-600,000), Week 7
9 (7) The Artist (Gaga) ¥40-45 million ($500-550,000), Week 2
10 (5) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥35-40 million ($450-500,000), Week 6

The second/third weekend of April is always one of the biggest of the year, a prime slot being two weeks from Golden Week, and this year will be no different. And in fact, the April 17-18, 2010 weekend still holds the record for the biggest ever.

Detective Conan will have his hands full defending his annual spot against Battleship but every Conan film of the past 5 years has opened above ¥500 million, Battleship's likely ceiling. Battleship opens on Friday (not included in the weekend opening), so it's three-day total could be over ¥500 million, however.

Future Outlook:

Detective Conan (16th Movie) has crossed the ¥3 billion ($40 million) milestone the past several years and would again if it opens over ¥500 million.
Battleship would be targeting the ¥2.5-3 billion ($30-40 million) range with a ¥400 million+ opening.
John Carter's goal is ¥1.5 billion ($20 million) with a ¥250 million range opening.
Crayon Shin-chan (20th Movie) will gross ¥1.1-1.3 billion (mid/high teens) or so like it does every year.

Pre-ticket sales (8 hours before first showings) at a couple usual locations:

Title - Tickets Sold/Seats Available

(Movix Theater in Miyoshi, Aichi)
Detective Conan - 225/519
Battleship - 76/201
Crayon Shin-chan - 67/155
SPEC - 65/332
John Carter 2D - 36/110
John Carter 3D - 33/228

(Warner MyCal Theater in Saitama, Saitama)
Detective Conan - 173/329
Battleship - 64/233
SPEC - 36/384
Crayon Shin-chan - 30/149
John Carter 2D - 17/322

They're showing John Carter in 2D there? Lucky.

Do most Hollywood 3D releases in Japan get a 2D release?

As far as I know, every Hollywood 3D release still gets a 2D release. But the number of 2D/3D screens can differ greatly depending on the size of the film. For example, 75/80% of Toy Story 3 and Pirates 4's screens were 3D, while a smaller film like Gulliver's Travels is about 50/50.

It's being reported that Battleship opened to ¥72 million ($900,000) on Friday.

For comparison, that's about the same as The Three Musketeers opened to on Friday (¥71 million), which went on to gross ¥1.95 billion ($25 million). And a little lower than Rise of the Apes opened to on Friday (¥86 million), which finished with ¥2.42 ($31 million).

It's chances were low on opening at #1 this weekend against Detective Conan, but this data puts it out of contention to open at #1. It's going to be in a close battle for second place this weekend with SPEC in it's second weekend now.

Films that open on early on Friday usually make about 15-20% of their 3-day total that day, so ¥400 ($5 million) million over the 3-day looks doable, but unlikely for the weekend gross which should be closer to ¥350 million ($4 million). That's a little lower than I was predicting, but inline with expectations. ¥400 million over the 3-day would still allow it to probably reach ¥2 billion ($25 million), and possibly ¥2.5 billion ($30 million) if it manages to attract a wide audience during Golden Week at the end of the month.

Pre-ticket sales (8 hours before first showings)

Title - Tickets Sold/Seats Available
(Movix Theater in Miyoshi, Aichi)

Saturday:
Detective Conan - 225/519
Battleship - 76/201
Crayon Shin-chan - 67/155
SPEC - 65/332
John Carter 2D - 36/110
John Carter 3D - 33/228

Sunday:
Detective Conan - 358/519 (!)
SPEC - 124/332
Battleship - 69/201
Crayon Shin-chan - 65/155
John Carter 2D - 29/110
John Carter 3D - 23/228

Saturday data hasn't been released yet, but some signs suggest Detective Conan might have a shot at ¥600 million ($7.5 million) this weekend. That would be the best opening since last July and also be be the best opening ever for the franchise.

Saturday Data from the Usual Locations:

Openers,

Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker 35.6% (!) increase over last year's Detective Conan film.
Battleship 22.2% increase over Sherlock Holmes 2.
Crayon Shin-chan 15.8% increase over last year's Crayon Shin-chan film.
John Carter 47.7% decrease from Sherlock Holmes 2.

Holdovers (Top 5),

SPEC down 27.5%
We Were There: Part I up 4.1%
Titanic 3D down 12.5%
The Artist up 15.1% (impressive)
Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles down 47.6%

Weekend Projections based on this data:

1 (NEW) Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) ¥650-725 million (around $8 million), Week 1
2 (NEW) Battleship (Toho-Towa) ¥350-375 million ($4-4.5 million), Week 1
3 (1) SPEC: The Movie (Toho) ¥325-350 million ($3.5-4 million), Week 2
4 (NEW) Crayon Shin-chan: Arashi o Yobu! Ora to Uchū no Princess (Toho) ¥200-225 million ($2.5-2.9 million), Week 1
5 (NEW) John Carter (Walt Disney) ¥150-175 million ($2-2.4 million), Week 1
6 (2) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) ¥110-135 million ($1.3-1.6 million), Week 5
7 (4) Titanic 3D (FOX) ¥70-75 million ($850-900,000), Week 2
8 (7) The Artist (Gaga) ¥60-65 million ($750-800,000), Week 2
9 (3) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥55-60 million ($700-750,000), Week 7

Extraordinary for Detective Conan. The 35.6% increase actually puts it close to ¥750 million or $9 million+ (insane), but I'm going to be conservative here and lower the weekend projection since it's so out of the norm for this very stable franchise that's been opening to ¥500-590 million the past 5 years. And I doubt it doesn't become the highest grossing film in the franchise now, so ¥3.5 billion+ ($45 million) is likely.

Great for Battleship. It's 3-day total will probably break ¥400 million ($5 million) now if it can drop in the single digits today (Sunday). ¥2.5 billion ($30 million) is in play.

Poor for John Carter. It will reach ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) by the end of it's run with this projected opening, but not much more.

April 14-15
Weekend Estimates



1 (NEW) Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Toho) ¥660,100,000 ($8.1 million), Week 1
2 (NEW) Battleship (Toho-Towa) ¥345,200,000 ($4.3 million), Week 1
3 (1) SPEC: The Movie (Toho) ¥332,700,000 ($4.1 million), -28.9%, Week 2
4 (NEW) Crayon Shin-chan: Arashi o Yobu! Ora to Uchū no Princess (Toho) ¥194,800,000 ($2.4 million), Week 1
5 (NEW) John Carter (Walt Disney) ¥143,800,000 ($1.8 million), Week 1
6 (2) We Were There: Part I (Asmik Ace/Toho) ¥122,300,000 ($1.5 million), +0.6%, Week 5
7 (4) Titanic 3D (FOX) ¥70,100,000 ($870,000), -19.4%, Week 2
8 (3) Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho) ¥53,700,000 ($665,000), -54.7%, Week 7
9 (7) The Artist (Gaga) ¥51,300,000 ($630,000), -3.5%, Week 2
10 (5) Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥45,900,000 ($565,000), -32.5%, Week 6

Biggest opening weekend of the year, biggest opening weekend since last July, and biggest opening weekend in the Detective Conan franchise for The Eleventh Striker. Needless to say, very impressive for this 16th installment. ¥3.5 billion+ ($45 million+) is highly likely.

Battleship debuts strong. With it's Friday estimated at 71 million ($900,000), it should have broke ¥400 million ($5 million) over it's first three days. ¥2-2.5 billion ($25-30 million) is the likely total range.

Crayon Shin-chan opens in the range as it's numerous predecessors have every year for the past 10 or 20 years, and will finish with ¥1.2/1.3 billion ($15-20 million) again this year.

John Carter possibly falling below ¥150 million ($2 million) for the weekend is a really bad sign. Like Battleship, it opened early on Friday, so it might have grossed ¥200 million ($2.5 million) since, but ¥1 billion ($12.5 million) isn't a lock yet which would make it commercial failure.